A key observation about the human immune response to repeated exposure to influenza A is that the first strain infecting an individual apparently produces the strongest adaptive immune response. ...Although antibody titers measure that response, the interpretation of titers to multiple strains--from the same sera--in terms of infection history is clouded by age effects, cross reactivity and immune waning. From July to September 2009, we collected serum samples from 151 residents of Guangdong Province, China, 7 to 81 years of age. Neutralization tests were performed against strains representing six antigenic clusters of H3N2 influenza circulating between 1968 and 2008, and three recent locally circulating strains. Patterns of neutralization titers were compared based on age at time of testing and age at time of the first isolation of each virus. Neutralization titers were highest for H3N2 strains that circulated in an individual's first decade of life (peaking at 7 years). Further, across strains and ages at testing, statistical models strongly supported a pattern of titers declining smoothly with age at the time a strain was first isolated. Those born 10 or more years after a strain emerged generally had undetectable neutralization titers to that strain (<1:10). Among those over 60 at time of testing, titers tended to increase with age. The observed pattern in H3N2 neutralization titers can be characterized as one of antigenic seniority: repeated exposure and the immune response combine to produce antibody titers that are higher to more 'senior' strains encountered earlier in life.
Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) remain the only widely available tool for controlling the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. We estimated weekly values of the effective basic reproductive number (R
...) using a mechanistic metapopulation model and associated these with county-level characteristics and NPIs in the United States (US). Interventions that included school and leisure activities closure and nursing home visiting bans were all associated with a median R
below 1 when combined with either stay at home orders (median R
0.97, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.58-1.39) or face masks (median R
0.97, 95% CI 0.58-1.39). While direct causal effects of interventions remain unclear, our results suggest that relaxation of some NPIs will need to be counterbalanced by continuation and/or implementation of others.
Human mobility is an important driver of geographic spread of infectious pathogens. Detailed information about human movements during outbreaks are, however, difficult to obtain and may not be ...available during future epidemics. The Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in West Africa between 2014-16 demonstrated how quickly pathogens can spread to large urban centers following one cross-species transmission event. Here we describe a flexible transmission model to test the utility of generalised human movement models in estimating EVD cases and spatial spread over the course of the outbreak. A transmission model that includes a general model of human mobility significantly improves prediction of EVD's incidence compared to models without this component. Human movement plays an important role not only to ignite the epidemic in locations previously disease free, but over the course of the entire epidemic. We also demonstrate important differences between countries in population mixing and the improved prediction attributable to movement metrics. Given their relative rareness, locally derived mobility data are unlikely to exist in advance of future epidemics or pandemics. Our findings show that transmission patterns derived from general human movement models can improve forecasts of spatio-temporal transmission patterns in places where local mobility data is unavailable.
Many public health responses and modeled scenarios for COVID-19 outbreaks caused by SARS-CoV-2 assume that infection results in an immune response that protects individuals from future infections or ...illness for some amount of time. The presence or absence of protective immunity due to infection or vaccination (when available) will affect future transmission and illness severity. Here, we review the scientific literature on antibody immunity to coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV-2 as well as the related SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV and endemic human coronaviruses (HCoVs). We reviewed 2,452 abstracts and identified 491 manuscripts relevant to 5 areas of focus: 1) antibody kinetics, 2) correlates of protection, 3) immunopathogenesis, 4) antigenic diversity and cross-reactivity, and 5) population seroprevalence. While further studies of SARS-CoV-2 are necessary to determine immune responses, evidence from other coronaviruses can provide clues and guide future research.
The effectiveness of inactivated vaccines (VE) against symptomatic and severe COVID-19 caused by omicron is unknown. We conducted a nationwide, test-negative, case-control study to estimate VE for ...homologous and heterologous (BNT162b2) booster doses in adults who received two doses of CoronaVac in Brazil in the Omicron context. Analyzing 1,386,544 matched-pairs, VE against symptomatic disease was 8.6% (95% CI, 5.6-11.5) and 56.8% (95% CI, 56.3-57.3) in the period 8-59 days after receiving a homologous and heterologous booster, respectively. During the same interval, VE against severe Covid-19 was 73.6% (95% CI, 63.9-80.7) and 86.0% (95% CI, 84.5-87.4) after receiving a homologous and heterologous booster, respectively. Waning against severe Covid-19 after 120 days was only observed after a homologous booster. Heterologous booster might be preferable to individuals with completed primary series inactivated vaccine.
In April 2009, an outbreak of novel swine-origin influenza A (2009 H1N1 influenza) occurred at a high school in Queens, New York. We describe the outbreak and characterize the clinical and ...epidemiologic aspects of this novel virus.
The New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene characterized the outbreak through laboratory confirmation of the presence of the 2009 H1N1 virus in nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal specimens and through information obtained from an online survey. Detailed information on exposure and the onset of symptoms was used to estimate the incubation period, generation time, and within-school reproductive number associated with 2009 H1N1 influenza, with the use of established techniques.
From April 24 through May 8, infection with the 2009 H1N1 virus was confirmed in 124 high-school students and employees. In responses to the online questionnaire, more than 800 students and employees (35% of student respondents and 10% of employee respondents) reported having an influenza-like illness during this period. No persons with confirmed 2009 H1N1 influenza or with influenza-like illness had severe symptoms. A linkage with travel to Mexico was identified. The estimated median incubation period for confirmed 2009 H1N1 influenza was 1.4 days (95% confidence interval CI, 1.0 to 1.8), with symptoms developing in 95% of cases by 2.2 days (95% CI, 1.7 to 2.6). The estimated median generation time was 2.7 days (95% CI, 2.0 to 3.5). We estimate that the within-school reproductive number was 3.3.
The findings from this investigation suggest that 2009 H1N1 influenza in the high school was widespread but did not cause severe illness. The reasons for the rapid and extensive spread of influenza-like illnesses are unknown. The natural history and transmission of the 2009 H1N1 influenza virus appear to be similar to those of previously observed circulating pandemic and interpandemic influenza viruses.
To estimate the effectiveness of the inactivated whole virus vaccine, CoronaVac (Sinovac Biotech), against symptomatic covid-19 in the elderly population of São Paulo state, Brazil during widespread ...circulation of the gamma variant.
Test negative case-control study.
Community testing for covid-19 in São Paulo state, Brazil.
43 774 adults aged ≥70 years who were residents of São Paulo state and underwent reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing for SARS-CoV-2 from 17 January to 29 April 2021. 26 433 cases with symptomatic covid-19 and 17 622 test negative controls with covid-19 symptoms were formed into 13 283 matched sets, one case with to up to five controls, according to age, sex, self-reported race, municipality of residence, previous covid-19 status, and date of RT-PCR test (±3 days).
Vaccination with a two dose regimen of CoronaVac.
RT-PCR confirmed symptomatic covid-19 and associated hospital admissions and deaths.
Adjusted vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic covid-19 was 24.7% (95% confidence interval 14.7% to 33.4%) at 0-13 days and 46.8% (38.7% to 53.8%) at ≥14 days after the second dose. Adjusted vaccine effectiveness against hospital admissions was 55.5% (46.5% to 62.9%) and against deaths was 61.2% (48.9% to 70.5%) at ≥14 days after the second dose. Vaccine effectiveness ≥14 days after the second dose was highest for the youngest age group (70-74 years)-59.0% (43.7% to 70.2%) against symptomatic disease, 77.6% (62.5% to 86.7%) against hospital admissions, and 83.9% (59.2% to 93.7%) against deaths-and declined with increasing age.
Vaccination with CoronaVac was associated with a reduction in symptomatic covid-19, hospital admissions, and deaths in adults aged ≥70 years in a setting with extensive transmission of the gamma variant. Vaccine protection was, however, low until completion of the two dose regimen, and vaccine effectiveness was observe to decline with increasing age among this elderly population.
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic raises many scientific and clinical questions. These include how host genetic factors affect disease susceptibility and pathogenesis. New work is emerging related to ...SARS-CoV-2; previous work has been conducted on other coronaviruses that affect different species. We reviewed the literature on host genetic factors related to coronaviruses, systematically focusing on human studies. We identified 1,832 articles of potential relevance. Seventy-five involved human host genetic factors, 36 of which involved analysis of specific genes or loci; aside from one meta-analysis, all were candidate-driven studies, typically investigating small numbers of research subjects and loci. Three additional case reports were described. Multiple significant loci were identified, including 16 related to susceptibility (seven of which identified protective alleles) and 16 related to outcomes (three of which identified protective alleles). The types of cases and controls used varied considerably; four studies used traditional replication/validation cohorts. Among other studies, 30 involved both human and non-human host genetic factors related to coronavirus, 178 involved study of non-human (animal) host genetic factors related to coronavirus, and 984 involved study of non-genetic host factors related to coronavirus, including involving immunopathogenesis. Previous human studies have been limited by issues that may be less impactful now, including low numbers of eligible participants and limited availability of advanced genomic methods; however, these may raise additional considerations. We outline key genes and loci from animal and human host genetic studies that may bear investigation in the study of COVID-19. We also discuss how previous studies may direct current lines of inquiry.
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic raises many scientific and clinical questions. These include how host genetic factors affect disease susceptibility and pathogenesis. New work is emerging related to SARS-CoV-2; previous work has been conducted on other coronaviruses that affect different species. We reviewed the literature on host genetic factors related to coronaviruses, systematically focusing on human studies. We identified 1,832 articles of potential relevance. Seventy-five involved human host genetic factors, 36 of which involved analysis of specific genes or loci; aside from one meta-analysis, all were candidate-driven studies, typically investigating small numbers of research subjects and loci. Three additional case reports were described. Multiple significant loci were identified, including 16 related to susceptibility (seven of which identified protective alleles) and 16 related to outcomes (three of which identified protective alleles). The types of cases and controls used varied considerably; four studies used traditional replication/validation cohorts. Among other studies, 30 involved both human and non-human host genetic factors related to coronavirus, 178 involved study of non-human (animal) host genetic factors related to coronavirus, and 984 involved study of non-genetic host factors related to coronavirus, including involving immunopathogenesis. Previous human studies have been limited by issues that may be less impactful now, including low numbers of eligible participants and limited availability of advanced genomic methods; however, these may raise additional considerations. We outline key genes and loci from animal and human host genetic studies that may bear investigation in the study of COVID-19. We also discuss how previous studies may direct current lines of inquiry.
The gold-standard method for quantifying neutralizing antibody responses to many viruses, including dengue virus (DENV), is the plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT, also called the immunofocus ...reduction neutralization test). The PRNT conducted on 96-well plates is high-throughput and requires a smaller volume of antiserum than on 6- or 24-well plates, but manual plaque counting is challenging and existing automated plaque counters are expensive or difficult to optimize. We have developed Viridot (Viridot package), a program for R with a user interface in shiny, that counts viral plaques of a variety of phenotypes, estimates neutralizing antibody titers, and performs other calculations of use to virologists. The Viridot plaque counter includes an automatic parameter identification mode (misses <10 plaques/well for 87% of diverse DENV strains n = 1521) and a mode that allows the user to fine-tune the parameters used for counting plaques. We compared standardized manual and Viridot plaque counting methods applied to the same wells by two analyses and found that Viridot plaque counts were as similar to the same analyst's manual count (Lin's concordance correlation coefficient, ρc = 0.99 95% confidence interval: 0.99-1.00) as manual counts between analysts (ρc = 0.99 95% CI: 0.98-0.99). The average ratio of neutralizing antibody titers based on manual counted plaques to Viridot counted plaques was 1.05 (95% CI: 0.98-1.14), similar to the average ratio of antibody titers based on manual plaque counts by the two analysts (1.06 95% CI: 0.84-1.34). Across diverse DENV and ZIKV strains (n = 14), manual and Viridot plaque counts were mostly consistent (range of ρc = 0.74 to 1.00) and the average ratio of antibody titers based on manual and Viridot counted plaques was close to 1 (0.94 0.86-1.02). Thus, Viridot can be used for plaque counting and neutralizing antibody titer estimation of diverse DENV strains and potentially other viruses on 96-well plates as well as for formalization of plaque-counting rules for standardization across experiments and analysts.
A two-dose regimen of the Oxford-AstraZeneca (ChAdOx1) Covid-19 vaccine with an inter-dose interval of three months has been implemented in many countries with restricted vaccine supply. However, ...there is limited evidence for the effectiveness of ChAdOx1 by dose in elderly populations in countries with high prevalence of the Gamma variant of SARS-CoV-2. Here, we estimate ChAdOx1 effectiveness by dose against the primary endpoint of RT-PCR-confirmed Covid-19, and secondary endpoints of Covid-19 hospitalization and Covid-19-related death, in adults aged ≥60 years during an epidemic with high Gamma variant prevalence in São Paulo state, Brazil using a matched, test-negative case-control study. Starting 28 days after the first dose, effectiveness of a single dose of ChAdOx1 is 33.4% (95% CI, 26.4-39.7) against Covid-19, 55.1% (95% CI, 46.6-62.2) against hospitalization, and 61.8% (95% CI, 48.9-71.4) against death. Starting 14 days after the second dose, effectiveness of the two-dose schedule is 77.9% (95% CI, 69.2-84.2) against Covid-19, 87.6% (95% CI, 78.2-92.9) against hospitalization, and 93.6% (95% CI, 81.9-97.7) against death. Completion of the ChAdOx1 vaccine schedule affords significantly increased protection over a single dose against mild and severe Covid-19 outcomes in elderly individuals during widespread Gamma variant circulation.
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