The appearance and fast spreading of Covid-19 took the international community by surprise. Collaboration between researchers, public health workers, and politicians has been established to deal with ...the epidemic. One important contribution from researchers in epidemiology is the analysis of trends so that both the current state and short-term future trends can be carefully evaluated. Gompertz model has been shown to correctly describe the dynamics of cumulative confirmed cases, since it is characterized by a decrease in growth rate showing the effect of control measures. Thus, it provides a way to systematically quantify the Covid-19 spreading velocity and it allows short-term predictions and longer-term estimations. This model has been employed to fit the cumulative cases of Covid-19 from several European countries. Results show that there are systematic differences in spreading velocity among countries. The model predictions provide a reliable picture of the short-term evolution in countries that are in the initial stages of the Covid-19 outbreak, and may permit researchers to uncover some characteristics of the long-term evolution. These predictions can also be generalized to calculate short-term hospital and intensive care units (ICU) requirements.
Policymakers need clear, fast assessment of the real spread of the COVID-19 epidemic in each of their respective countries. Standard measures of the situation provided by the governments include ...reported positive cases and total deaths. While total deaths indicate immediately that countries like Italy and Spain had the worst situation as of mid-April, 2020, reported cases alone do not provide a complete picture of the situation. Different countries diagnose differently and present very distinctive reported case fatality ratios. Similar levels of reported incidence and mortality might hide a very different underlying pictures. Here we present a straightforward and robust estimation of the diagnostic rate in each European country. From that estimation we obtain a uniform, unbiased incidence of the epidemic. The method to obtain the diagnostic rate is transparent and empirical. The key assumption of the method is that the infection fatality ratio of COVID-19 in Europe is not strongly country-dependent. We show that this number is not expected to be biased due to demography nor to the way total deaths are reported. The estimation protocol is dynamic, and it has been yielding converging numbers for diagnostic rates in all European countries as from mid-April, 2020. Using this diagnostic rate, policy makers can obtain Effective Potential Growth updated every day, providing an unbiased assessment of the countries at greater risk of experiencing an uncontrolled situation. The method developed has been and will be used to track possible improvements in the diagnostic rate in European countries as the epidemic evolves.
A review of the pathology of human pulmonary TB cases at different stages of evolution in the pre-antibiotic era suggests that neutrophils play an instrumental role in the progression toward active ...TB. This progression is determined by the type of lesion generated. Thus, exudative lesions, in which neutrophils are the major cell type, are both triggered by and induce local high bacillary load, and tend to enlarge and progress toward liquefaction and cavitation. In contrast, proliferative lesions are triggered by low bacillary loads, mainly comprise epithelioid cells and fibroblasts and tend to fibrose, encapsulate and calcify, thus controlling the infection. Infection of the upper lobes is key to the progression toward active TB for two main reasons, namely poor breathing amplitude, which allows local bacillary accumulation, and the high mechanical stress to which the interlobular septae (which enclose secondary lobes) are submitted, which hampers their ability to encapsulate lesions. Overall, progressing factors can be defined as internal (exudative lesion, local bronchogenous dissemination, coalescence of lesions), with lympho-hematological dissemination playing a very limited role, or external (exogenous reinfection). Abrogating factors include control of the bacillary load and the local encapsulation process, as directed by interlobular septae. The age and extent of disease depend on the quality and speed with which lesions liquefy and disseminate bronchially, the volume of the slough, and the amount and distribution of the sloughing debris dispersed.
Tuberculosis (TB) is characterized by a tight interplay between Mycobacterium tuberculosis and host cells within granulomas. These cellular aggregates restrict bacterial spreading, but do not kill ...all the bacilli, which can persist for years. In-depth investigation of M. tuberculosis interactions with granuloma-specific cell populations are needed to gain insight into mycobacterial persistence, and to better understand the physiopathology of the disease. We have analyzed the formation of foamy macrophages (FMs), a granuloma-specific cell population characterized by its high lipid content, and studied their interaction with the tubercle bacillus. Within our in vitro human granuloma model, M. tuberculosis long chain fatty acids, namely oxygenated mycolic acids (MA), triggered the differentiation of human monocyte-derived macrophages into FMs. In these cells, mycobacteria no longer replicated and switched to a dormant non-replicative state. Electron microscopy observation of M. tuberculosis-infected FMs showed that the mycobacteria-containing phagosomes migrate towards host cell lipid bodies (LB), a process which culminates with the engulfment of the bacillus into the lipid droplets and with the accumulation of lipids within the microbe. Altogether, our results suggest that oxygenated mycolic acids from M. tuberculosis play a crucial role in the differentiation of macrophages into FMs. These cells might constitute a reservoir used by the tubercle bacillus for long-term persistence within its human host, and could provide a relevant model for the screening of new antimicrobials against non-replicating persistent mycobacteria.
All tuberculosis vaccines currently in clinical trials are designed as prophylactic vaccines based on early expressed antigens. We have developed a multistage vaccination strategy in which the early ...antigens Ag85B and 6-kDa early secretory antigenic target (ESAT-6) are combined with the latency-associated protein Rv2660c (H56 vaccine). In CB6F1 mice we show that Rv2660c is stably expressed in late stages of infection despite an overall reduced transcription. The H56 vaccine promotes a T cell response against all protein components that is characterized by a high proportion of polyfunctional CD4(+) T cells. In three different pre-exposure mouse models, H56 confers protective immunity characterized by a more efficient containment of late-stage infection than the Ag85B-ESAT6 vaccine (H1) and BCG. In two mouse models of latent tuberculosis, we show that H56 vaccination after exposure is able to control reactivation and significantly lower the bacterial load compared to adjuvant control mice.
To evaluate the safety, tolerability and immunogenicity of three different doses (5, 25 and 50 µg) of the novel antituberculous vaccine RUTI compared to placebo in subjects with latent tuberculosis ...infection.
Double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled Phase II Clinical Trial (95 patients randomized). Three different RUTI doses and placebo were tested, randomized both in HIV-positive (n = 47) and HIV-negative subjects (n = 48), after completion of one month isoniazid (INH) pre-vaccination. Each subject received two vaccine administrations, 28 Days apart. Five patients withdrew and 90 patients completed the study. Assessment of safety showed no deaths during study. Two subjects had serious adverse events one had a retinal detachment while taking INH and was not randomized and the other had a severe local injection site abscess on each arm and was hospitalized; causality was assessed as very likely and by the end of the study the outcome had resolved. All the patients except 5 (21%) patients of the placebo group (3 HIV+ and 2 HIV-) reported at least one adverse event (AE) during the study. The most frequently occurring AEs among RUTI recipients were (% in HIV+/-): injection site reactions erythema (91/92), induration (94/92), local nodules (46/25), local pain (66/75), sterile abscess (6/6), swelling (74/83), ulcer (20/11), headache (17/22) and nasopharyngitis (20/5). These events were mostly mild and well tolerated. Overall, a polyantigenic response was observed, which differed by HIV- status. The best polyantigenic response was obtained when administrating 25 µg RUTI, especially in HIV-positive subjects which was not increased after the second inoculation.
This Phase II clinical trial demonstrates reasonable tolerability of RUTI. The immunogenicity profile of RUTI vaccine in LTBI subjects, even being variable among groups, allows us considering one single injection of one of the highest doses in future trials, preceded by an extended safety clinical phase.
ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01136161.
Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) is the causative agent for tuberculosis, the most extended infectious disease around the world. When Mtb enters inside the pulmonary alveolus it is rapidly ...phagocytosed by the alveolar macrophage. Although this controls the majority of inhaled microorganisms, in this case, Mtb survives inside the macrophage and multiplies. A posterior chemokine and cytokine cascade generated by the irruption of monocytes, neutrophils and posteriorly, by T-cells, does not necessarily stop the growth of the granuloma. Interestingly, the encapsulation process built by fibroblasts is able to surround the lesion and stop its growing. The success of this last process determines if the host enters in an asymptomatic latent state or continues into a life-threatening and infective active tuberculosis disease (TB). Understanding such dichotomic process is challenging, and computational modeling can bring new ideas. Thus, we have modeled the different stages of the infection, first in a single alveolus (a sac with a radius of 0.15 millimeters) and, second, inside a secondary lobule (a compartment of the lungs of around 3 cm.sup.3). We have employed stochastic reaction-diffusion equations to model the interactions among the cells and the diffusive transport to neighboring alveolus. The whole set of equations have successfully described the encapsulation process and determine that the size of the lesions depends on its position on the secondary lobule. We conclude that size and shape of the secondary lobule are the relevant variables to control the lesions, and, therefore, to avoid the evolution towards TB development. As lesions appear near to interlobular connective tissue they are easily controlled and their growth is drastically stopped, in this sense secondary lobules with a more flattened shape could control better the lesion.
Summary Tuberculosis was studied using an experimental model based on the C3HeB/FeJ mouse strain, which mimics the liquefaction of caseous necrosis occurring during active disease in immunocompetent ...adults. Mice were intravenously infected with 2 × 104 Colony Forming Units of Mycobacterium tuberculosis and their histopathology, immune response, bacillary load, and survival were evaluated. The effects of the administration of drugs with anti-inflammatory activity were examined, and the C3H/HeN mouse strain was also included for comparative purposes. Massive intra-alveolar neutrophilic infiltration led to rapid granuloma growth and coalescence of lesions into superlesions. A central necrotic area appeared showing progressive cellular destruction, the alveoli cell walls being initially conserved (caseous necrosis) but finally destroyed (liquefactive necrosis). Increasing levels of pro-inflammatory mediators were detected in lungs. C3HeB/FeJ treated with anti-inflammatory drugs and C3H/HeN animals presented lower levels of pro-inflammatory mediators such as TNF-α, IL-17, IL-6 and CXCL5, a lower bacillary load, better histopathology, and increased survival compared with untreated C3HeB/FeJ. The observation of massive neutrophilic infiltration suggests that inflammation may be a key factor in progression towards active tuberculosis. On the basis of our findings, we consider that the C3HeB/FeJ mouse model would be useful for evaluating new therapeutic strategies against human tuberculosis.
Tuberculosis (TB) represents a worldwide cause of mortality (it infects one third of the world's population) affecting mostly developing countries, including India, and recently also developed ones ...due to the increased mobility of the world population and the evolution of different new bacterial strains capable to provoke multi-drug resistance phenomena. Currently, antitubercular drugs are unable to eradicate subpopulations of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) bacilli and therapeutic vaccinations have been postulated to overcome some of the critical issues related to the increase of drug-resistant forms and the difficult clinical and public health management of tuberculosis patients. The Horizon 2020 EC funded project "In Silico Trial for Tuberculosis Vaccine Development" (STriTuVaD) to support the identification of new therapeutic interventions against tuberculosis through novel in silico modelling of human immune responses to disease and vaccines, thereby drastically reduce the cost of clinical trials in this critical sector of public healthcare.
We present the application of the Universal Immune System Simulator (UISS) computational modeling infrastructure as a disease model for TB. The model is capable to simulate the main features and dynamics of the immune system activities i.e., the artificial immunity induced by RUTI® vaccine, a polyantigenic liposomal therapeutic vaccine made of fragments of Mycobacterium tuberculosis cells (FCMtb). Based on the available data coming from phase II Clinical Trial in subjects with latent tuberculosis infection treated with RUTI® and isoniazid, we generated simulation scenarios through validated data in order to tune UISS accordingly to STriTuVaD objectives. The first case simulates the establishment of MTB latent chronic infection with some typical granuloma formation; the second scenario deals with a reactivation phase during latent chronic infection; the third represents the latent chronic disease infection scenario during RUTI® vaccine administration.
The application of this computational modeling strategy helpfully contributes to simulate those mechanisms involved in the early stages and in the progression of tuberculosis infection and to predict how specific therapeutical strategies will act in this scenario. In view of these results, UISS owns the capacity to open the door for a prompt integration of in silico methods within the pipeline of clinical trials, supporting and guiding the testing of treatments in patients affected by tuberculosis.
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