Sea-Level Rise and Its Impact on Coastal Zones Nicholls, Robert J; Cazenave, Anny
Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science),
06/2010, Letnik:
328, Številka:
5985
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Global sea levels have risen through the 20th century. These rises will almost certainly accelerate through the 21st century and beyond because of global warming, but their magnitude remains ...uncertain. Key uncertainties include the possible role of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets and the amplitude of regional changes in sea level. In many areas, nonclimatic components of relative sea-level change (mainly subsidence) can also be locally appreciable. Although the impacts of sea-level rise are potentially large, the application and success of adaptation are large uncertainties that require more assessment and consideration.
Contemporary sea level rise Cazenave, Anny; Llovel, William
Annual review of marine science,
01/2010, Letnik:
2
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Measuring sea level change and understanding its causes has considerably improved in the recent years, essentially because new in situ and remote sensing observations have become available. Here we ...report on most recent results on contemporary sea level rise. We first present sea level observations from tide gauges over the twentieth century and from satellite altimetry since the early 1990s. We next discuss the most recent progress made in quantifying the processes causing sea level change on timescales ranging from years to decades, i.e., thermal expansion of the oceans, land ice mass loss, and land water-storage change. We show that for the 1993-2007 time span, the sum of climate-related contributions (2.85 +/- 0.35 mm year(-1)) is only slightly less than altimetry-based sea level rise (3.3 +/- 0.4 mm year(-1)): approximately 30% of the observed rate of rise is due to ocean thermal expansion and approximately 55% results from land ice melt. Recent acceleration in glacier melting and ice mass loss from the ice sheets increases the latter contribution up to 80% for the past five years. We also review the main causes of regional variability in sea level trends: The dominant contribution results from nonuniform changes in ocean thermal expansion.
This study analyzes the interannual variability of the water mass transport measured by satellite gravity missions in regard to eight major climate modes known to influence the Earth’s climate from ...regional to global scales. Using sparsity promoting techniques (i.e., LASSO), we automatically select the most relevant predictors of the climate variability among the eight candidates considered. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Southern Annular Mode and Arctic Oscillation are shown to account for a large part the interannual variability of the water mass transport observed in extratropical ocean basins (up to 40%) and shallow seas (up to 70%). A combination of three Pacific and one Atlantic modes is needed to account for most (up to 60%) of the interannual variability of the terrestrial water storage observed in the North Amazon, Parana and Zambezi basins. With our technique, the impact of climate modes on water mass changes can be tracked across distinct water reservoirs (oceans, continents and ice-covered regions) and we show that a combination of climate modes is necessary to explain at best the natural variability in water mass transport. The climate modes predictions based on LASSO inversions can be used to reduce the inter-annual variability in satellite gravity measurements and detect processes unrelated with the natural variability of climate but with similar spatio-temporal signatures. However, significant residuals in the satellite gravity measurements remain unexplained at inter-annual time scales and more complex models solving the water mass balance should be employed to better predict the variability of water mass distributions.
Time-variable gravity measurements from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) missions have opened up a new avenue of opportunities for studying ...large-scale mass redistribution and transport in the Earth system. Over the past 19 years, GRACE/GRACE-FO time-variable gravity measurements have been widely used to study mass variations in different components of the Earth system, including the hydrosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and solid Earth, and significantly improved our understanding of long-term variability of the climate system. We carry out a comprehensive review of GRACE/GRACE-FO satellite gravimetry, time-variable gravity fields, data processing methods, and major applications in several different fields, including terrestrial water storage change, global ocean mass variation, ice sheets and glaciers mass balance, and deformation of the solid Earth. We discuss in detail several major challenges we need to face when using GRACE/GRACE-FO time-variable gravity measurements to study mass changes, and how we should address them. We also discuss the potential of satellite gravimetry in detecting gravitational changes that are believed to originate from the deep Earth. The extended record of GRACE/GRACE-FO gravity series, with expected continuous improvements in the coming years, will lead to a broader range of applications and improve our understanding of both climate change and the Earth system.
In this review article, we summarize observations of sea level variations, globally and regionally, during the 20th century and the last 2 decades. Over these periods, the global mean sea level rose ...at rates of 1.7mm/yr and 3.2mm/yr respectively, as a result of both increase of ocean thermal expansion and land ice loss. The regional sea level variations, however, have been dominated by the thermal expansion factor over the last decades even though other factors like ocean salinity or the solid Earth's response to the last deglaciation can have played a role. We also present examples of total local sea level variations that include the global mean rise, the regional variability and vertical crustal motions, focusing on the tropical Pacific islands. Finally we address the future evolution of the global mean sea level under on-going warming climate and the associated regional variability. Expected impacts of future sea level rise are briefly presented.
Satellite altimeter sea surface heights, in combination with Argo ocean temperature and salinity observations, provide an independent measure of global mean ocean mass (GMOM) change. Over the period ...January 2005 to April 2020, GMOM rates observed by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow‐On (GFO) range from 1.88 ± 0.10 to 2.63 ± 0.10 mm/year, compared to 2.85 ± 0.37 mm/year from Altimeter‐Argo. Over much of the GRACE era, GRACE GMOM estimates agree well with Altimeter‐Argo over a broadband of frequencies. However, during the late stage of the GRACE mission (after August 2016) and into the GFO era, differences between GRACE/GFO and Altimeter‐Argo GMOM estimates become substantially larger and systematic, which may be related to the single accelerometer mode of operation during late‐stage GRACE and GFO missions and/or errors of Argo and altimeter data.
Key Points
GRACE/GFO‐derived global ocean mass change agrees generally well with Altimeter‐Argo estimates at seasonal and long‐term scales
The GRACE/GFO and Altimeter‐Argo GMOM differences become substantially larger and systematic during the late‐stage GRACE and GFO periods
The discrepancy is likely related to the single accelerometer mode of the late‐stage GRACE and GFO and/or errors of Argo and altimeter data
Climate-related sea level changes in the world coastal zones result from the superposition of the global mean rise due to ocean warming and land ice melt, regional changes caused by non-uniform ocean ...thermal expansion and salinity changes, and by the solid Earth response to current water mass redistribution and associated gravity change, plus small-scale coastal processes (e.g., shelf currents, wind & waves changes, fresh water input from rivers, etc.). So far, satellite altimetry has provided global gridded sea level time series up to 10-15 km to the coast only, preventing estimation of sea level changes very close to the coast. Here we present a 16-year-long (June 2002 to May 2018), high-resolution (20-Hz), along-track sea level dataset at monthly interval, together with associated sea level trends, at 429 coastal sites in six regions (Northeast Atlantic, Mediterranean Sea, Western Africa, North Indian Ocean, Southeast Asia and Australia). This new coastal sea level product is based on complete reprocessing of raw radar altimetry waveforms from the Jason-1, Jason-2 and Jason-3 missions.
Global warming in response to accumulation of human‐induced greenhouse gases inside the atmosphere has already caused several visible consequences, among them increase of the Earth's mean temperature ...and ocean heat content, melting of glaciers, and loss of ice from the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets. Ocean warming and land ice melt in turn are causing sea level to rise. Sea level rise and its impacts on coastal zones have become a question of growing interest in the scientific community, as well as in the media and public. In this review paper, we summarize the most up‐to‐date knowledge about sea level rise and its causes, highlighting the regional variability that superimposes the global mean rise. We also present sea level projections for the 21st century under different warming scenarios. We next address the issue of the sea level rise impacts. We question whether there is already observational evidence of coastal impacts of sea level rise and highlight the fact that results differ from one location to another. This suggests that the response of coastal systems to sea level rise is highly dependent on local natural and human settings. We finally show that in spite of remaining uncertainties about future sea levels and related impacts, it becomes possible to provide preliminary assessment of regional impacts of sea level rise.
Key Points
We summarize the most up‐to‐date knowledge about sea level rise and its causes
Sea level rise is not uniform and displays regional variability
Impacts of sea level rise on coastal hazards will depend on many local factors
Regional sea level changes can deviate substantially from those of the global mean, can vary on a broad range of timescales, and in some regions can even lead to a reversal of long-term global mean ...sea level trends. The underlying causes are associated with dynamic variations in the ocean circulation as part of climate modes of variability and with an isostatic adjustment of Earth's crust to past and ongoing changes in polar ice masses and continental water storage. Relative to the coastline, sea level is also affected by processes such as earthquakes and anthropogenically induced subsidence. Present-day regional sea level changes appear to be caused primarily by natural climate variability. However, the imprint of anthropogenic effects on regional sea level-whether due to changes in the atmospheric forcing or to mass variations in the system-will grow with time as climate change progresses, and toward the end of the twenty-first century, regional sea level patterns will be a superposition of climate variability modes and natural and anthropogenically induced static sea level patterns. Attribution and predictions of ongoing and future sea level changes require an expanded and sustained climate observing system.
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