The messenger RNA (mRNA)-based vaccines BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 are more than 90% effective against coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19). However, their comparative effectiveness for a range of ...outcomes across diverse populations is unknown.
We emulated a target trial using the electronic health records of U.S. veterans who received a first dose of the BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 vaccine between January 4 and May 14, 2021, during a period marked by predominance of the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 (alpha) variant. We matched recipients of each vaccine in a 1:1 ratio according to their risk factors. Outcomes included documented severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, symptomatic Covid-19, hospitalization for Covid-19, admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) for Covid-19, and death from Covid-19. We estimated risks using the Kaplan-Meier estimator. To assess the influence of the B.1.617.2 (delta) variant, we emulated a second target trial that involved veterans vaccinated between July 1 and September 20, 2021.
Each vaccine group included 219,842 persons. Over 24 weeks of follow-up in a period marked by alpha-variant predominance, the estimated risk of documented infection was 5.75 events per 1000 persons (95% confidence interval CI, 5.39 to 6.23) in the BNT162b2 group and 4.52 events per 1000 persons (95% CI, 4.17 to 4.84) in the mRNA-1273 group. The excess number of events per 1000 persons for BNT162b2 as compared with mRNA-1273 was 1.23 (95% CI, 0.72 to 1.81) for documented infection, 0.44 (95% CI, 0.25 to 0.70) for symptomatic Covid-19, 0.55 (95% CI, 0.36 to 0.83) for hospitalization for Covid-19, 0.10 (95% CI, 0.00 to 0.26) for ICU admission for Covid-19, and 0.02 (95% CI, -0.06 to 0.12) for death from Covid-19. The corresponding excess risk (BNT162b2 vs. mRNA-1273) of documented infection over 12 weeks of follow-up in a period marked by delta-variant predominance was 6.54 events per 1000 persons (95% CI, -2.58 to 11.82).
The 24-week risk of Covid-19 outcomes was low after vaccination with mRNA-1273 or BNT162b2, although risks were lower with mRNA-1273 than with BNT162b2. This pattern was consistent across periods marked by alpha- and delta-variant predominance. (Funded by the Department of Veterans Affairs and others.).
In response to the novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) Million Veteran Program (MVP) organized efforts to better understand the impact of ...COVID-19 on Veterans by developing and deploying a self-reported survey.
The MVP COVID-19 Survey was developed to collect COVID-19 specific elements including symptoms, diagnosis, hospitalization, behavioral and psychosocial factors and to augment existing MVP data with longitudinal collection of key domains in physical and mental health. Due to the rapidly evolving nature of the pandemic, a multipronged strategy was implemented to widely disseminate the COVID-19 Survey and capture data using both the online platform and mailings.
We limited the findings of this paper to the initial phase of survey dissemination which began in May 2020. A total of 729,625 eligible MVP Veterans were invited to complete version 1 of the COVID-19 Survey. As of October 31, 2020, 58,159 surveys have been returned. The mean and standard deviation (SD) age of responders was 71 (11) years, 8.6% were female, 8.2% were Black, 5.6% were Hispanic, and 446 (0.8%) self-reported a COVID-19 diagnosis. Over 90% of responders reported wearing masks, practicing social distancing, and frequent hand washing.
The MVP COVID-19 Survey provides a systematic collection of data regarding COVID-19 behaviors among Veterans and represents one of the first large-scale, national surveillance efforts of COVID-19 in the Veteran population. Continued work will examine the overall response to the survey with comparison to available VA health record data.
The unprecedented increase in unintentional overdose events that has occurred in tandem with escalating sales of prescription opioids over the past 2 decades has raised concerns about whether the ...therapeutic use of opioids has contributed to increases in overdose injury. Few controlled studies have examined the extent to which ecologic measures of increases in opioid prescribing and overdose injuries reflect risk among patients prescribed opioids, let alone whether some opioid regimens are safer than others.
To examine whether the risk of unintentional overdose injury is associated with the duration of opioid action (ie, long-acting vs short-acting formulations).
A propensity score-adjusted cohort study was conducted using population-based health care utilization data from the Veterans Administration Healthcare System. The patients were veterans with chronic painful conditions who began therapy with opioid analgesics between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2009.
Unintentional overdoses that are explicitly coded using International Classification of Disease, Ninth Revision codes as drug or medication poisonings of accidental intent (E850.x-860.x) or undetermined intent (E980.x or drug poisoning 960.x-980.x without an accompanying external cause of injury code).
A total of 319 unintentional overdose events were observed. Patients initiating therapy with long-acting opioids were more than twice as likely to overdose compared with persons initiating therapy with short-acting opioids. After adjustment for age, sex, opioid dose, and other clinical characteristics, patients receiving long-acting opioids had a significantly higher rate of overdose injury than did those receiving short-acting opioids (hazard ratio HR, 2.33; 95% CI, 1.26-4.32). The risk associated with long-acting agents was particularly marked during the first 2 weeks after initiation of treatment (HR, 5.25; 1.88-14.72).
To our knowledge, the findings of the present study provide the first evidence that the risk of unintentional overdose injury is related to the prescribed opioid's duration of action. If replicated in other cohorts, our findings suggest that clinicians weighing the benefits and risks of initiating different opioid regimens should consider not only the daily dose prescribed but also the duration of opioid action, favoring short-acting agents whenever possible, especially during the first 2 weeks of therapy.
Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is a major problem among military veterans and civilians alike, yet its pathophysiology remains poorly understood. We performed a genome-wide association study ...and bioinformatic analyses, which included 146,660 European Americans and 19,983 African Americans in the US Million Veteran Program, to identify genetic risk factors relevant to intrusive reexperiencing of trauma, which is the most characteristic symptom cluster of PTSD. In European Americans, eight distinct significant regions were identified. Three regions had values of P < 5 × 10
: CAMKV; chromosome 17 closest to KANSL1, but within a large high linkage disequilibrium region that also includes CRHR1; and TCF4. Associations were enriched with respect to the transcriptomic profiles of striatal medium spiny neurons. No significant associations were observed in the African American cohort of the sample. Results in European Americans were replicated in the UK Biobank data. These results provide new insights into the biology of PTSD in a well-powered genome-wide association study.
Background Diabetes mellitus is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease ( CVD ) and has been associated with 2- to 4-fold higher mortality. Diabetes mellitus-related mortality has not been ...reassessed in individuals receiving routine care in the United States in the contemporary era of CVD risk reduction. Methods and Results We retrospectively studied 963 648 adults receiving care in the US Veterans Affairs Healthcare System from 2002 to 2014; mean follow-up was 8 years. We estimated associations of diabetes mellitus status and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) with all-cause and CVD mortality using covariate-adjusted incidence rates and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression. Of participants, 34% had diabetes mellitus. Compared with nondiabetic individuals, patients with diabetes mellitus had 7.0 (95% CI , 6.7-7.4) and 3.5 (95% CI, 3.3-3.7) deaths/1000-person-years higher all-cause and CVD mortality, respectively. The age-, sex-, race-, and ethnicity-adjusted hazard ratio for diabetes mellitus-related mortality was 1.29 (95% CI, 1.28-1.31), and declined with adjustment for CVD risk factors (hazard ratio, 1.18 95% CI, 1.16-1.19) and glycemia (hazard ratio, 1.03 95% CI, 1.02-1.05). Among individuals with diabetes mellitus, CVD mortality increased as HbA1c exceeded 7% (hazard ratios, 1.11 95% CI, 1.08-1.14, 1.25 95% CI, 1.22-1.29, and 1.52 95% CI, 1.48-1.56 for HbA1c 7%-7.9%, 8%-8.9%, and ≥9%, respectively, relative to HbA1c 6%-6.9%). HbA1c 6% to 6.9% was associated with the lowest mortality risk irrespective of CVD history or age. Conclusions Diabetes mellitus remains significantly associated with all-cause and CVD mortality, although diabetes mellitus-related excess mortality is lower in the contemporary era than previously. We observed a gradient of mortality risk with increasing HbA1c >6% to 6.9%, suggesting HbA1c remains an informative predictor of outcomes even if causality cannot be inferred.
Large-scale multi-ethnic cohorts offer unprecedented opportunities to elucidate the genetic factors influencing complex traits related to health and disease among minority populations. At the same ...time, the genetic diversity in these cohorts presents new challenges for analysis and interpretation. We consider the utility of race and/or ethnicity categories in genome-wide association studies (GWASs) of multi-ethnic cohorts. We demonstrate that race/ethnicity information enhances the ability to understand population-specific genetic architecture. To address the practical issue that self-identified racial/ethnic information may be incomplete, we propose a machine learning algorithm that produces a surrogate variable, termed HARE. We use height as a model trait to demonstrate the utility of HARE and ethnicity-specific GWASs.
Peripheral artery disease (PAD) is a leading cause of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality; however, the extent to which genetic factors increase risk for PAD is largely unknown. Using electronic ...health record data, we performed a genome-wide association study in the Million Veteran Program testing ~32 million DNA sequence variants with PAD (31,307 cases and 211,753 controls) across veterans of European, African and Hispanic ancestry. The results were replicated in an independent sample of 5,117 PAD cases and 389,291 controls from the UK Biobank. We identified 19 PAD loci, 18 of which have not been previously reported. Eleven of the 19 loci were associated with disease in three vascular beds (coronary, cerebral, peripheral), including LDLR, LPL and LPA, suggesting that therapeutic modulation of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, the lipoprotein lipase pathway or circulating lipoprotein(a) may be efficacious for multiple atherosclerotic disease phenotypes. Conversely, four of the variants appeared to be specific for PAD, including F5 p.R506Q, highlighting the pathogenic role of thrombosis in the peripheral vascular bed and providing genetic support for Factor Xa inhibition as a therapeutic strategy for PAD. Our results highlight mechanistic similarities and differences among coronary, cerebral and peripheral atherosclerosis and provide therapeutic insights.
To examine the risk of Alzheimer's disease (AD) among cancer survivors in a national database.
Retrospective cohort of 3,499,378 mostly male US veterans aged ≥65 years were followed between 1996 and ...2011. We used Cox models to estimate risk of AD and alternative outcomes (non-AD dementia, osteoarthritis, stroke, and macular degeneration) in veterans with and without a history of cancer.
Survivors of a wide variety of cancers had modestly lower AD risk, but increased risk of the alternative outcomes. Survivors of screened cancers, including prostate cancer, had a slightly increased AD risk. Cancer treatment was independently associated with decreased AD risk; those who received chemotherapy had a lower risk than those who did not.
Survivors of some cancers have a lower risk of AD but not other age-related conditions, arguing that lower AD diagnosis is not simply due to bias. Cancer treatment may be associated with decreased risk of AD.
•Veterans who survived a wide variety of cancers had lower Alzheimer's disease (AD) risk than expected.•However, their risk of non-AD dementia and other diseases was increased.•Cancer treatment was independently associated with lower AD risk.•Survivors of prostate cancer and melanoma had a slightly increased risk of AD.•The lower risk of AD in survivors of some cancers is not due to survival bias.
Available COVID-19 mortality indices are limited to acute inpatient data. Using nationwide medical administrative data available prior to SARS-CoV-2 infection from the US Veterans Health ...Administration (VA), we developed the VA COVID-19 (VACO) 30-day mortality index and validated the index in two independent, prospective samples.
We reviewed SARS-CoV-2 testing results within the VA between February 8 and August 18, 2020. The sample was split into a development cohort (test positive between March 2 and April 15, 2020), an early validation cohort (test positive between April 16 and May 18, 2020), and a late validation cohort (test positive between May 19 and July 19, 2020). Our logistic regression model in the development cohort considered demographics (age, sex, race/ethnicity), and pre-existing medical conditions and the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) derived from ICD-10 diagnosis codes. Weights were fixed to create the VACO Index that was then validated by comparing area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) in the early and late validation cohorts and among important validation cohort subgroups defined by sex, race/ethnicity, and geographic region. We also evaluated calibration curves and the range of predictions generated within age categories. 13,323 individuals tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 (median age: 63 years; 91% male; 42% non-Hispanic Black). We observed 480/3,681 (13%) deaths in development, 253/2,151 (12%) deaths in the early validation cohort, and 403/7,491 (5%) deaths in the late validation cohort. Age, multimorbidity described with CCI, and a history of myocardial infarction or peripheral vascular disease were independently associated with mortality-no other individual comorbid diagnosis provided additional information. The VACO Index discriminated mortality in development (AUC = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.77-0.81), and in early (AUC = 0.81 95% CI: 0.78-0.83) and late (AUC = 0.84, 95% CI: 0.78-0.86) validation. The VACO Index allows personalized estimates of 30-day mortality after COVID-19 infection. For example, among those aged 60-64 years, overall mortality was estimated at 9% (95% CI: 6-11%). The Index further discriminated risk in this age stratum from 4% (95% CI: 3-7%) to 21% (95% CI: 12-31%), depending on sex and comorbid disease.
Prior to infection, demographics and comorbid conditions can discriminate COVID-19 mortality risk overall and within age strata. The VACO Index reproducibly identified individuals at substantial risk of COVID-19 mortality who might consider continuing social distancing, despite relaxed state and local guidelines.
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