Lung cancer risks at which individuals should be screened with computed tomography (CT) for lung cancer are undecided. This study's objectives are to identify a risk threshold for selecting ...individuals for screening, to compare its efficiency with the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) criteria for identifying screenees, and to determine whether never-smokers should be screened. Lung cancer risks are compared between smokers aged 55-64 and ≥ 65-80 y.
Applying the PLCO(m2012) model, a model based on 6-y lung cancer incidence, we identified the risk threshold above which National Lung Screening Trial (NLST, n = 53,452) CT arm lung cancer mortality rates were consistently lower than rates in the chest X-ray (CXR) arm. We evaluated the USPSTF and PLCO(m2012) risk criteria in intervention arm (CXR) smokers (n = 37,327) of the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO). The numbers of smokers selected for screening, and the sensitivities, specificities, and positive predictive values (PPVs) for identifying lung cancers were assessed. A modified model (PLCOall2014) evaluated risks in never-smokers. At PLCO(m2012) risk ≥ 0.0151, the 65th percentile of risk, the NLST CT arm mortality rates are consistently below the CXR arm's rates. The number needed to screen to prevent one lung cancer death in the 65th to 100th percentile risk group is 255 (95% CI 143 to 1,184), and in the 30th to <65th percentile risk group is 963 (95% CI 291 to -754); the number needed to screen could not be estimated in the <30th percentile risk group because of absence of lung cancer deaths. When applied to PLCO intervention arm smokers, compared to the USPSTF criteria, the PLCO(m2012) risk ≥ 0.0151 threshold selected 8.8% fewer individuals for screening (p<0.001) but identified 12.4% more lung cancers (sensitivity 80.1% 95% CI 76.8%-83.0% versus 71.2% 95% CI 67.6%-74.6%, p<0.001), had fewer false-positives (specificity 66.2% 95% CI 65.7%-66.7% versus 62.7% 95% CI 62.2%-63.1%, p<0.001), and had higher PPV (4.2% 95% CI 3.9%-4.6% versus 3.4% 95% CI 3.1%-3.7%, p<0.001). In total, 26% of individuals selected for screening based on USPSTF criteria had risks below the threshold PLCO(m2012) risk ≥ 0.0151. Of PLCO former smokers with quit time >15 y, 8.5% had PLCO(m2012) risk ≥ 0.0151. None of 65,711 PLCO never-smokers had PLCO(m2012) risk ≥ 0.0151. Risks and lung cancers were significantly greater in PLCO smokers aged ≥ 65-80 y than in those aged 55-64 y. This study omitted cost-effectiveness analysis.
The USPSTF criteria for CT screening include some low-risk individuals and exclude some high-risk individuals. Use of the PLCO(m2012) risk ≥ 0.0151 criterion can improve screening efficiency. Currently, never-smokers should not be screened. Smokers aged ≥ 65-80 y are a high-risk group who may benefit from screening. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.
The American Cancer Society (ACS) recommends that individuals with a cervix initiate cervical cancer screening at age 25 years and undergo primary human papillomavirus (HPV) testing every 5 years ...through age 65 years (preferred); if primary HPV testing is not available, then individuals aged 25 to 65 years should be screened with cotesting (HPV testing in combination with cytology) every 5 years or cytology alone every 3 years (acceptable) (strong recommendation). The ACS recommends that individuals aged >65 years who have no history of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or more severe disease within the past 25 years, and who have documented adequate negative prior screening in the prior 10 years, discontinue all cervical cancer screening (qualified recommendation). These new screening recommendations differ in 4 important respects compared with the 2012 recommendations: 1) The preferred screening strategy is primary HPV testing every 5 years, with cotesting and cytology alone acceptable where access to US Food and Drug Administration‐approved primary HPV testing is not yet available; 2) the recommended age to start screening is 25 years rather than 21 years; 3) primary HPV testing, as well as cotesting or cytology alone when primary testing is not available, is recommended starting at age 25 years rather than age 30 years; and 4) the guideline is transitional, ie, options for screening with cotesting or cytology alone are provided but should be phased out once full access to primary HPV testing for cervical cancer screening is available without barriers. Evidence related to other relevant issues was reviewed, and no changes were made to recommendations for screening intervals, age or criteria for screening cessation, screening based on vaccination status, or screening after hysterectomy. Follow‐up for individuals who screen positive for HPV and/or cytology should be in accordance with the 2019 American Society for Colposcopy and Cervical Pathology risk‐based management consensus guidelines for abnormal cervical cancer screening tests and cancer precursors.
In randomized trials, fecal occult-blood testing reduces mortality from colorectal cancer. However, the duration of the benefit is unknown, as are the effects specific to age and sex.
In the ...Minnesota Colon Cancer Control Study, 46,551 participants, 50 to 80 years of age, were randomly assigned to usual care (control) or to annual or biennial screening with fecal occult-blood testing. Screening was performed from 1976 through 1982 and from 1986 through 1992. We used the National Death Index to obtain updated information on the vital status of participants and to determine causes of death through 2008.
Through 30 years of follow-up, 33,020 participants (70.9%) died. A total of 732 deaths were attributed to colorectal cancer: 200 of the 11,072 deaths (1.8%) in the annual-screening group, 237 of the 11,004 deaths (2.2%) in the biennial-screening group, and 295 of the 10,944 deaths (2.7%) in the control group. Screening reduced colorectal-cancer mortality (relative risk with annual screening, 0.68; 95% confidence interval CI, 0.56 to 0.82; relative risk with biennial screening, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.65 to 0.93) through 30 years of follow-up. No reduction was observed in all-cause mortality (relative risk with annual screening, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.99 to 1.01; relative risk with biennial screening, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.98 to 1.01). The reduction in colorectal-cancer mortality was larger for men than for women in the biennial-screening group (P=0.04 for interaction).
The effect of screening with fecal occult-blood testing on colorectal-cancer mortality persists after 30 years but does not influence all-cause mortality. The sustained reduction in colorectal-cancer mortality supports the effect of polypectomy. (Funded by the Veterans Affairs Merit Review Award Program and others.).
Animal models suggest that gut microbiota contribute to obesity; however, a consistent taxonomic signature of obesity has yet to be identified in humans. We examined whether a taxonomic signature of ...obesity is present across two independent study populations. We assessed gut microbiome from stool for 599 adults, by 16S rRNA gene sequencing. We compared gut microbiome diversity, overall composition, and individual taxon abundance for obese (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m
), overweight (25 ≤ BMI < 30), and healthy-weight participants (18.5 ≤ BMI < 25). We found that gut species richness was reduced (p = 0.04), and overall composition altered (p = 0.04), in obese (but not overweight) compared to healthy-weight participants. Obesity was characterized by increased abundance of class Bacilli and its families Streptococcaceae and Lactobacillaceae, and decreased abundance of several groups within class Clostridia, including Christensenellaceae, Clostridiaceae, and Dehalobacteriaceae (q < 0.05). These findings were consistent across two independent study populations. When random forest models were trained on one population and tested on the other as well as a previously published dataset, accuracy of obesity prediction was good (~70%). Our large study identified a strong and consistent taxonomic signature of obesity. Though our study is cross-sectional and causality cannot be determined, identification of microbes associated with obesity can potentially provide targets for obesity prevention and treatment.
BACKGROUND
The National Lung Screening Trial (NLST), which compared lung cancer screening with low‐dose computed tomography (LDCT) versus chest radiography (CXR), demonstrated a statistically ...significant mortality benefit of LDCT screening. In the current study, the authors performed a post hoc analysis to examine whether the benefit was affected by various baseline factors, including age, sex, and smoking status, and whether it differed by tumor histology.
METHODS
Lung cancer death rates were computed as events over person‐years of observation; the mortality risk ratio (RR) was defined as the lung cancer death rate in the LDCT versus CXR trial arms. Poisson regression was used to test for interactions of sex, age (< 65 years vs ≥ 65 years), and smoking status (current vs former) with trial arm. Mortality RRs were also computed for specific lung cancer histologies.
RESULTS
The overall mortality RR was 0.92 in men and 0.73 in women, with a P value for interaction of .08. RRs were similar for individuals aged < 65 years versus those aged ≥ 65 years (0.82 vs 0.87), and for current versus former smokers (0.81 vs 0.91). By tumor histology, mortality RRs were 0.75 for adenocarcinoma, 0.71 for all non‐small cell lung cancers except squamous, 1.23 for squamous cell carcinoma, and 0.90 for small cell carcinoma. RRs were similar for men and women for nonsquamous non‐small cell lung cancers (0.71 and 0.70, respectively); women were found to have lower RRs for small cell and squamous cell carcinoma.
CONCLUSIONS
A benefit of LDCT did not appear to vary substantially by age or smoking status; there was weak evidence of a differential benefit by sex. A differential benefit across lung cancer histologies may exist. Cancer 2013;119:3976–3983. Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.
The benefit of computed tomography screening in the National Lung Screening Trial did not vary substantially by age or smoking status; there was weak evidence of a differential benefit by sex. A differential benefit across lung cancer histologies may exist.
The National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) showed that screening with low-dose computed tomography (CT) as compared with chest radiography reduced lung-cancer mortality. We examined the ...cost-effectiveness of screening with low-dose CT in the NLST.
We estimated mean life-years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs per person, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for three alternative strategies: screening with low-dose CT, screening with radiography, and no screening. Estimations of life-years were based on the number of observed deaths that occurred during the trial and the projected survival of persons who were alive at the end of the trial. Quality adjustments were derived from a subgroup of participants who were selected to complete quality-of-life surveys. Costs were based on utilization rates and Medicare reimbursements. We also performed analyses of subgroups defined according to age, sex, smoking history, and risk of lung cancer and performed sensitivity analyses based on several assumptions.
As compared with no screening, screening with low-dose CT cost an additional $1,631 per person (95% confidence interval CI, 1,557 to 1,709) and provided an additional 0.0316 life-years per person (95% CI, 0.0154 to 0.0478) and 0.0201 QALYs per person (95% CI, 0.0088 to 0.0314). The corresponding ICERs were $52,000 per life-year gained (95% CI, 34,000 to 106,000) and $81,000 per QALY gained (95% CI, 52,000 to 186,000). However, the ICERs varied widely in subgroup and sensitivity analyses.
We estimated that screening for lung cancer with low-dose CT would cost $81,000 per QALY gained, but we also determined that modest changes in our assumptions would greatly alter this figure. The determination of whether screening outside the trial will be cost-effective will depend on how screening is implemented. (Funded by the National Cancer Institute; NLST ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00047385.).
Background
The relationship between dietary and lifestyle risk factors and long-term mortality from colorectal cancer is poorly understood. Several factors, such as obesity, intakes of red meat, and ...use of aspirin, have been reported to be associated with risk of colorectal cancer mortality, though these findings have not been replicated in all studies to date.
Methods
In the Minnesota Colon Cancer Control Study, 46,551 participants 50–80 years old were randomly assigned to usual care (control) or annual or biennial screening by fecal occult blood testing. Colon cancer mortality was assessed after 30 years of follow-up. Dietary intake and lifestyle risk factors were assessed by questionnaire at baseline.
Results
Age hazard ratio (HR) 1.09; 95% CI 1.07, −1.11, male sex (HR 1.25; 95% CI 1.01, 1.57), and higher body mass index (BMI) (HR 1.03; 95% CI 1.00–1.05) increased the risk of CRC mortality, while undergoing screening for CRC was associated with a reduced risk of colorectal cancer mortality (HR 0.76; 95% CI 0.61–0.94 and 0.67; 95% CI 0.53–0.83 for biennial and annual screening, respectively). Intakes of grains, meats, proteins, coffee, alcohol, aspirin, fiber, fruits, and vegetables were not associated with colorectal cancer mortality.
Conclusions
Our study confirms the relationship between BMI and long-term colorectal cancer mortality. Modulation of BMI may reduce risk of CRC mortality.
Some individuals are diagnosed with colorectal cancer (CRC) despite recent colonoscopy. We examined individuals under colonoscopic surveillance for colonic adenomas to assess possible reasons for ...diagnosing cancer after a recent colonoscopy with complete removal of any identified polyps.
Primary data were pooled from eight large (>800 patients) North American studies in which participants with adenoma(s) had a baseline colonoscopy (with intent to remove all visualised lesions) and were followed with subsequent colonoscopy. We used an algorithm based on the time from previous colonoscopy and the presence, size and histology of adenomas detected at prior exam to assign interval cancers as likely being new, missed, incompletely resected (while previously an adenoma) or due to failed biopsy detection.
9167 participants (mean age 62) were included in the analyses, with a median follow-up of 47.2 months. Invasive cancer was diagnosed in 58 patients (0.6%) during follow-up (1.71 per 1000 person-years follow-up). Most cancers (78%) were early stage (I or II); however, 9 (16%) resulted in death from CRC. We classified 30 cancers (52%) as probable missed lesions, 11 (19%) as possibly related to incomplete resection of an earlier, non-invasive lesion and 14 (24%) as probable new lesions. The cancer diagnosis may have been delayed in three cases (5%) because of failed biopsy detection.
Despite recent colonoscopy with intent to remove all neoplasia, CRC will occasionally be diagnosed. These cancers primarily seem to represent lesions that were missed or incompletely removed at the prior colonoscopy and might be avoided by increased emphasis on identifying and completely removing all neoplastic lesions at colonoscopy.
The National Lung Screening Trial was conducted to determine whether three annual screenings (rounds T0, T1, and T2) with low-dose helical computed tomography (CT), as compared with chest ...radiography, could reduce mortality from lung cancer. We present detailed findings from the first two incidence screenings (rounds T1 and T2).
We evaluated the rate of adherence of the participants to the screening protocol, the results of screening and downstream diagnostic tests, features of the lung-cancer cases, and first-line treatments, and we estimated the performance characteristics of both screening methods.
At the T1 and T2 rounds, positive screening results were observed in 27.9% and 16.8% of participants in the low-dose CT group and in 6.2% and 5.0% of participants in the radiography group, respectively. In the low-dose CT group, the sensitivity was 94.4%, the specificity was 72.6%, the positive predictive value was 2.4%, and the negative predictive value was 99.9% at T1; at T2, the positive predictive value increased to 5.2%. In the radiography group, the sensitivity was 59.6%, the specificity was 94.1%, the positive predictive value was 4.4%, and the negative predictive value was 99.8% at T1; both the sensitivity and the positive predictive value increased at T2. Among lung cancers of known stage, 87 (47.5%) were stage IA and 57 (31.1%) were stage III or IV in the low-dose CT group at T1; in the radiography group, 31 (23.5%) were stage IA and 78 (59.1%) were stage III or IV at T1. These differences in stage distribution between groups persisted at T2.
Low-dose CT was more sensitive in detecting early-stage lung cancers, but its measured positive predictive value was lower than that of radiography. As compared with radiography, the two annual incidence screenings with low-dose CT resulted in a decrease in the number of advanced-stage cancers diagnosed and an increase in the number of early-stage lung cancers diagnosed. (Funded by the National Cancer Institute; NLST ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00047385.).
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