We systematically assessed the evidence regarding the association between noninvasive 24-h systolic blood pressure and incident cardiovascular events.
We searched PubMed, EMBASE, and the Cochrane ...Library through April 2007. Studies that prospectively followed at least 100 individuals for at least 1 year, and that reported at least one effect estimate of interest were included. Two independent investigators abstracted information on study design, subject characteristics, blood pressure measurements, outcome assessment, effect estimates, and adjustment for potential confounders.
We identified 20 eligible articles based on 15 independent cohort studies. The association between 24-h systolic blood pressure and a combined cardiovascular endpoint was assessed in nine cohort studies, including 9299 participants who were followed up to 11.1 years and had 881 outcome events. The summary hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) per 10-mmHg increase of 24-h systolic blood pressure was 1.27 (1.18-1.38) (P < 0.001). Further adjustment for office blood pressure in four studies with 4975 participants and 499 outcome events provided a similar summary estimate hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) per 10-mmHg increase of 24-systolic blood pressure 1.21 (1.10-1.33) (P < 0.001). Office blood pressure was usually assessed on a single occasion. We found no significant variability according to age, sex, population origin, baseline office blood pressure, follow-up time, diabetes, or study quality. There was a consistent association between 24-h systolic blood pressure and stroke, cardiovascular mortality, total mortality, and cardiac events with hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) per 10 mmHg increase of 24-h systolic blood pressure of 1.33 (1.22-1.44), 1.19 (1.13-1.26), 1.12 (1.07-1.17), and 1.17 (1.09-1.25), respectively.
24-h systolic blood pressure is a strong predictor of cardiovascular events, providing prognostic information independent of conventional office blood pressure.
Background Device-detected subclinical atrial fibrillation (AF) refers to infrequent, short-lasting, asymptomatic AF that is detected only with long-term continuous monitoring. Subclinical AF is ...common and associated with an increased risk of stroke; however, the risk of stroke with subclinical AF is lower than for clinical AF, and very few patients with subclinical AF alone have been included in large AF anticoagulation trials. The net benefit of anticoagulation in patients with subclinical AF is unknown. Design ARTESiA is a prospective, multicenter, double-blind, randomized controlled trial, recruiting patients with subclinical AF detected by an implanted pacemaker, defibrillator, or cardiac monitor, and who have additional risk factors for stroke. Patients with clinical AF documented by surface electrocardiogram will be excluded from the study. Participants will be randomized to receive either apixaban (according to standard AF dosing) or aspirin 81 mg daily. The primary outcome is the composite of stroke, transient ischemic attack with diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging evidence of cerebral infarction, and systemic embolism. Approximately 4,000 patients will be enrolled from around 230 clinical sites, with an anticipated mean follow-up of 36 months until 248 adjudicated primary outcome events have occurred. Summary ARTESiA will determine whether oral anticoagulation therapy with apixaban compared with aspirin reduces the risk of stroke or systemic embolism in patients with subclinical AF and additional risk factors.
Objectives We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to determine the predictive value of findings of coronary computed tomography angiography for incident cardiovascular events. Background ...Initial studies indicate a prognostic value of the technique; however, the level of evidence as well as exact independent risk estimates remain unclear. Methods We searched PubMed, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library through January 2010 for studies that followed up ≥100 subjects for ≥1 year and reported at ≥1 hazard ratio (HR) of interest. Risk estimates for the presence of significant coronary stenosis (primary endpoint; ≥50% diameter stenosis), left main coronary artery stenosis, each coronary stenosis, 3-vessel disease, any plaque, per coronary segment containing plaque, and noncalcified plaque were derived in random effect regression analysis, and causes of heterogeneity were determined in meta-regression analysis. Results We identified 11 eligible articles including 7,335 participants (age 59.1 ± 2.6 years, 62.8% male) with suspected coronary artery disease. The presence of ≥1 significant coronary stenosis (9 studies, 3,670 participants, and 252 outcome events 6.8% with 62% revascularizations) was associated with an annualized event rate of 11.9% (6.4% in studies excluding revascularization). The corresponding HR was 10.74 (98% confidence interval CI: 6.37 to 18.11) and 6.15 (95% CI: 3.22 to 11.74) in studies excluding revascularization. Adjustment for coronary calcification did not attenuate the prognostic significance (p = 0.79). The estimated HRs for left main stenosis, presence of plaque, and each coronary segment containing plaque were 6.64 (95% CI: 2.6 to 17.3), 4.51 (95% CI: 2.2 to 9.3), and 1.23 (95% CI: 1.17 to 1.29), respectively. Conclusions Presence and extent of coronary artery disease on coronary computed tomography angiography are strong, independent predictors of cardiovascular events despite heterogeneity in endpoints, categorization of computed tomography findings, and study population.
Summary Background Atrial fibrillation is a major risk factor for recurrent ischaemic stroke, but often remains undiagnosed in patients who have had an acute ischaemic stroke. Enhanced and prolonged ...Holter-electrocardiogram-monitoring might increase detection of atrial fibrillation. We therefore investigated whether enhanced and prolonged rhythm monitoring was better for detection of atrial fibrillation than standard care procedures in patients with acute ischaemic stroke. Methods Find-AFRANDOMISED is an open-label randomised study done at four centres in Germany. We recruited patients with acute ischaemic stroke (symptoms for 7 days or less) aged 60 years or older presenting with sinus rhythm and without history of atrial fibrillation. Patients were included irrespective of the suspected cause of stroke, unless they had a severe ipsilateral carotid or intracranial artery stenosis, which were the exclusion criteria. We used a computer-generated allocation sequence to randomly assign patients in a 1:1 ratio with permuted block sizes of 2, 4, 6, and 8, stratified by centre, to enhanced and prolonged monitoring (ie, 10-day Holter-electrocardiogram ECG-monitoring at baseline, and at 3 months and 6 months of follow-up) or standard care procedures (ie, at least 24 h of rhythm monitoring). Participants and study physicians were not masked to group assignment, but the expert committees that adjudicated endpoints were. The primary endpoint was the occurrence of atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter (30 sec or longer) within 6 months after randomisation and before stroke recurrence. Because Holter ECG is a widely used procedure and not known to harm patients, we chose not to assess safety in detail. Analysis was by intention to treat. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov , number NCT01855035. Findings Between May 8, 2013, and Aug 31, 2014, we recruited 398 patients. 200 patients were randomly assigned to the enhanced and prolonged monitoring group and 198 to the standard care group. After 6 months, we detected atrial fibrillation in 14% of 200 patients in the enhanced and prolonged monitoring group (27 patients) versus 5% in the control group (nine of 198 patients, absolute difference 9·0%; 95% CI 3·4–14·5, p=0·002; number needed to screen 11). Interpretation Enhanced and prolonged monitoring initiated early in patients with acute ischaemic stroke aged 60 years or older was better than standard care for the detection of atrial fibrillation. These findings support the consideration of all patients aged 60 years or older with stroke for prolonged monitoring if the detection of atrial fibrillation would result in a change in medical management (eg, initiation of anticoagulation). Funding Boehringer Ingelheim.
Several studies found that patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) have an increased risk of cognitive decline and dementia over time. However, the magnitude of the problem, associated risk factors ...and underlying mechanisms remain unclear.
This article describes the design and methodology of the Swiss Atrial Fibrillation (Swiss-AF) Cohort Study, a prospective multicentre national cohort study of 2400 patients across 13 sites in Switzerland. Eligible patients must have documented AF. Main exclusion criteria are the inability to provide informed consent and the presence of exclusively short episodes of reversible forms of AF. All patients undergo extensive phenotyping and genotyping, including repeated assessment of cognitive functions, quality of life, disability, electrocardiography and cerebral magnetic resonance imaging. We also collect information on health related costs, and we assemble a large biobank. Key clinical outcomes in Swiss-AF are death, stroke, systemic embolism, bleeding, hospitalisation for heart failure and myocardial infarction. Information on outcomes and updates on other characteristics are being collected during yearly follow-up visits.
Up to 7 April 2017, we have enrolled 2133 patients into Swiss-AF. With the current recruitment rate of 15 to 20 patients per week, we expect that the target sample size of 2400 patients will be reached by summer 2017.
Swiss-AF is a large national prospective cohort of patients with AF in Switzerland. This study will provide important new information on structural and functional brain damage in patients with AF and on other AF related complications, using a large variety of genetic, phenotypic and health economic parameters.
Objectives The purpose of this study was to assess whether changes of major atrial fibrillation (AF) risk factors and/or intercurrent cardiovascular events could explain the relationship between type ...2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) and incident AF. Background Previous studies found an increased risk of incident AF among individuals with T2D, but few, if any, of these studies took into account changes of AF risk factors over time. Methods A total of 34,720 female health professionals who participated in the Women's Health Study, and who were free of cardiovascular disease and AF at baseline were followed for a median of 16.4 years. Cox proportional-hazards models were constructed to assess the relationship between T2D and incident AF, using either information at baseline or time-varying covariates for both T2D and potential confounders. Results At baseline, 937 (2.7 %) women had T2D. Compared with women without T2D, women with T2D had an age-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for new-onset AF of 1.95 (95% confidence interval CI: 1.49 to 2.56; p < 0.0001). In multivariable analyses adjusting for baseline confounders, this HR was substantially attenuated, but baseline T2D remained a significant predictor of incident AF (HR: 1.37, 95% CI: 1.03 to 1.83; p = 0.03). In time-updated models that adjusted for changes in AF risk factors and intercurrent cardiovascular events, the HR for T2D was attenuated further and became nonsignificant (HR: 1.14; 95% CI: 0.93 to 1.40; p = 0.20). Conclusions Although this study confirms a significant relationship between baseline T2D and incident AF, our data suggest that the increased risk associated with T2D is mainly mediated by changes of other AF risk factors.
The influence of systolic and diastolic blood pressure (BP) on incident atrial fibrillation (AF) is not well studied among initially healthy, middle-aged women.
A total of 34,221 women participating ...in the Women's Health Study were prospectively followed up for incident AF. The risk of AF across categories of systolic and diastolic BP was compared by use of Cox proportional-hazards models. During 12.4 years of follow-up, 644 incident AF events occurred. Using BP measurements at baseline, we discovered that the long-term risk of AF was significantly increased across categories of systolic and diastolic BP. Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios for systolic BP categories (<120, 120 to 129, 130 to 139, 140 to 159, and > or =160 mm Hg) were 1.0, 1.00 (95% CI, 0.78 to 1.28), 1.28 (95% CI, 1.00 to 1.63), 1.56 (95% CI, 1.22 to 2.01), and 2.74 (95% CI, 1.77 to 4.22) (P for trend <0.0001). Adjusted hazard ratios across baseline diastolic BP categories (<65, 65 to 74, 75 to 84, 85 to 89, 90 to 94, and > or =95 mm Hg) were 1.0, 1.17 (95% CI, 0.81 to 1.69), 1.18 (95% CI, 0.84 to 1.65), 1.53 (95% CI, 1.05 to 2.23), 1.35 (95% CI, 0.82 to 2.22), and 2.15 (95% CI, 1.21 to 3.84) (P for trend=0.004). When BP changes over time were accounted for in updated models, multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios were 1.0, 1.14 (95% CI, 0.89 to 1.46), 1.37 (95% CI, 1.07 to 1.76), 1.71 (95% CI, 1.33 to 2.21), and 2.21 (95% CI, 1.45 to 3.36) (P for trend <0.0001) for systolic BP categories and 1.0, 1.12 (95% CI, 0.82 to 1.52), 1.13 (95% CI, 0.83 to 1.52), 1.30 (95% CI, 0.89 to 1.88), 1.50 (95% CI, 1.01 to 1.88), and 1.54 (95% CI, 0.75 to 3.14) (P for trend=0.026) for diastolic BP categories.
In this large cohort of initially healthy women, BP was strongly associated with incident AF, and systolic BP was a better predictor than diastolic BP. Systolic BP levels within the nonhypertensive range were independently associated with incident AF even after BP changes over time were taken into account.
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