Species distribution models (SDMs) trained on presence-only data are frequently used in ecological research and conservation planning. However, users of SDM software are faced with a variety of ...options, and it is not always obvious how selecting one option over another will affect model performance. Working with MaxEnt software and with tree fern presence data from New Zealand, we assessed whether (a) choosing to correct for geographical sampling bias and (b) using complex environmental response curves have strong effects on goodness of fit. SDMs were trained on tree fern data, obtained from an online biodiversity data portal, with two sources that differed in size and geographical sampling bias: a small, widely-distributed set of herbarium specimens and a large, spatially clustered set of ecological survey records. We attempted to correct for geographical sampling bias by incorporating sampling bias grids in the SDMs, created from all georeferenced vascular plants in the datasets, and explored model complexity issues by fitting a wide variety of environmental response curves (known as "feature types" in MaxEnt). In each case, goodness of fit was assessed by comparing predicted range maps with tree fern presences and absences using an independent national dataset to validate the SDMs. We found that correcting for geographical sampling bias led to major improvements in goodness of fit, but did not entirely resolve the problem: predictions made with clustered ecological data were inferior to those made with the herbarium dataset, even after sampling bias correction. We also found that the choice of feature type had negligible effects on predictive performance, indicating that simple feature types may be sufficient once sampling bias is accounted for. Our study emphasizes the importance of reducing geographical sampling bias, where possible, in datasets used to train SDMs, and the effectiveness and essentialness of sampling bias correction within MaxEnt.
Summary
It has been suggested that diverse forests utilize canopy space more efficiently than species‐poor ones, as mixing species with complementary architectural and physiological traits allows ...trees to pack more densely. However, whether positive canopy packing–diversity relationships are a general feature of forests remains unclear.
Using crown allometric data collected for 12 939 trees from permanent forest plots across Europe, we test (i) whether diversity promotes canopy packing across forest types and (ii) whether increased canopy packing occurs primarily through vertical stratification of tree crowns or as a result of intraspecific plasticity in crown morphology.
We found that canopy packing efficiency increased markedly in response to species richness across a range of forest types and species combinations. Positive canopy packing–diversity relationships were primarily driven by the fact that trees growing in mixture had sizably larger crowns (38% on average) than those in monoculture.
The ability of trees to plastically adapt the shape and size of their crowns in response to changes in local competitive environment is critical in allowing mixed‐species forests to optimize the use of canopy space. By promoting the development of denser and more structurally complex canopies, species mixing can strongly impact nutrient cycling and storage in forest ecosystems.
Lay Summary
Summary
Forests are a major component of the global carbon cycle, and accurate estimation of forest carbon stocks and fluxes is important in the context of anthropogenic global change. Airborne laser ...scanning (ALS) data sets are increasingly recognized as outstanding data sources for high‐fidelity mapping of carbon stocks at regional scales.
We develop a tree‐centric approach to carbon mapping, based on identifying individual tree crowns (ITCs) and species from airborne remote sensing data, from which individual tree carbon stocks are calculated. We identify ITCs from the laser scanning point cloud using a region‐growing algorithm and identifying species from airborne hyperspectral data by machine learning. For each detected tree, we predict stem diameter from its height and crown‐width estimate. From that point on, we use well‐established approaches developed for field‐based inventories: above‐ground biomasses of trees are estimated using published allometries and summed within plots to estimate carbon density.
We show this approach is highly reliable: tests in the Italian Alps demonstrated a close relationship between field‐ and ALS‐based estimates of carbon stocks (r2 = 0·98). Small trees are invisible from the air, and a correction factor is required to accommodate this effect.
An advantage of the tree‐centric approach over existing area‐based methods is that it can produce maps at any scale and is fundamentally based on field‐based inventory methods, making it intuitive and transparent. Airborne laser scanning, hyperspectral sensing and computational power are all advancing rapidly, making it increasingly feasible to use ITC approaches for effective mapping of forest carbon density also inside wider carbon mapping programs like REDD++.
Tree mortality is a key process underlying forest dynamics and community assembly. Understanding how tree mortality is driven by simultaneous drivers is needed to evaluate potential effects of ...climate change on forest composition. Using repeat-measure information from c. 400,000 trees from the Spanish Forest Inventory, we quantified the relative importance of tree size, competition, climate and edaphic conditions on tree mortality of 11 species, and explored the combined effect of climate and competition. Tree mortality was affected by all of these multiple drivers, especially tree size and asymmetric competition, and strong interactions between climate and competition were found. All species showed L-shaped mortality patterns (i.e. showed decreasing mortality with tree size), but pines were more sensitive to asymmetric competition than broadleaved species. Among climatic variables, the negative effect of temperature on tree mortality was much larger than the effect of precipitation. Moreover, the effect of climate (mean annual temperature and annual precipitation) on tree mortality was aggravated at high competition levels for all species, but especially for broadleaved species. The significant interaction between climate and competition on tree mortality indicated that global change in Mediterranean regions, causing hotter and drier conditions and denser stands, could lead to profound effects on forest structure and composition. Therefore, to evaluate the potential effects of climatic change on tree mortality, forest structure must be considered, since two systems of similar composition but different structure could radically differ in their response to climatic conditions.
Both theory and evidence suggest that diversity stabilises productivity in herbaceous plant communities through a combination of overyielding, species asynchrony and favourable species interactions. ...However, whether these same processes also promote stability in forest ecosystems has never been tested. Using tree ring data from permanent forest plots across Europe, we show that aboveground wood production is inherently more stable through time in mixed‐species forests. Faster rates of wood production (i.e. overyielding), decreased year‐to‐year variation in productivity through asynchronous responses of species to climate, and greater temporal stability in the growth rates of individual tree species all contributed strongly to stabilising productivity in mixed stands. Together, these findings reveal the central role of diversity in stabilising productivity in forests, and bring us closer to understanding the processes which enable diverse forests to remain productive under a wide range of environmental conditions.
ABSTRACT
Land‐use change is fragmenting natural ecosystems, with major consequences for biodiversity. This paper reviews fragmentation trends – historical and current – in China, the fourth largest ...country on Earth, and explores its consequences. Remote sensing makes it possible to track land‐use change at a global scale and monitor fragmentation of dwindling natural landscapes. Yet few studies have linked fragmentation mapped remotely with impacts on biodiversity within human‐modified landscapes. Recent reforestation programs have caused substantial increases in forest cover but have not stopped fragmentation, because the new forests are mostly monocultures that further fragment China's remnant old‐growth lowland forests that harbour the highest levels of biodiversity. Fragmentation – and associated biodiversity declines – is unevenly distributed in China's forests, being most problematic where agricultural expansion is occurring in the southwest and northeast, serious in the densely populated eastern regions where urbanisation and transport infrastructure are modifying landscapes, but less of a problem in other regions. Analyses of temporal trends show that the drivers of forest fragmentation are shifting from mainly agricultural expansion to urbanisation and infrastructure development. Most of China's old‐growth forests persist in small, isolated fragments from which many native species have disappeared, on land unsuitable for human utilisation. Fragmentation throughout China is likely to have major consequences on biodiversity conservation, but few studies have considered these large‐scale processes at the national level. Our review fills this research gap and puts forward a systematic perspective relevant to China and beyond.
Topography is a key driver of tropical forest structure and composition, as it constrains local nutrient and hydraulic conditions within which trees grow. Yet, we do not fully understand how changes ...in forest physiognomy driven by topography impact other emergent properties of forests, such as their aboveground carbon density (ACD). Working in Borneo – at a site where 70‐m‐tall forests in alluvial valleys rapidly transition to stunted heath forests on nutrient‐depleted dip slopes – we combined field data with airborne laser scanning and hyperspectral imaging to characterise how topography shapes the vertical structure, wood density, diversity and ACD of nearly 15 km2 of old‐growth forest. We found that subtle differences in elevation – which control soil chemistry and hydrology – profoundly influenced the structure, composition and diversity of the canopy. Capturing these processes was critical to explaining landscape‐scale heterogeneity in ACD, highlighting how emerging remote sensing technologies can provide new insights into long‐standing ecological questions.
Local‐scale microclimatic conditions in forest understoreys play a key role in shaping the composition, diversity and function of these ecosystems. Consequently, understanding what drives variation ...in forest microclimate is critical to forecasting ecosystem responses to global change, particularly in the tropics where many species already operate close to their thermal limits and rapid land‐use transformation is profoundly altering local environments. Yet our ability to characterize forest microclimate at ecologically meaningful scales remains limited, as understorey conditions cannot be directly measured from outside the canopy. To address this challenge, we established a network of microclimate sensors across a land‐use intensity gradient spanning from old‐growth forests to oil‐palm plantations in Borneo. We then combined these observations with high‐resolution airborne laser scanning data to characterize how topography and canopy structure shape variation in microclimate both locally and across the landscape. In the processes, we generated high‐resolution microclimate surfaces spanning over 350 km2, which we used to explore the potential impacts of habitat degradation on forest regeneration under both current and future climate scenarios. We found that topography and vegetation structure were strong predictors of local microclimate, with elevation and terrain curvature primarily constraining daily mean temperatures and vapour pressure deficit (VPD), whereas canopy height had a clear dampening effect on microclimate extremes. This buffering effect was particularly pronounced on wind‐exposed slopes but tended to saturate once canopy height exceeded 20 m—suggesting that despite intensive logging, secondary forests remain largely thermally buffered. Nonetheless, at a landscape‐scale microclimate was highly heterogeneous, with maximum daily temperatures ranging between 24.2 and 37.2°C and VPD spanning two orders of magnitude. Based on this, we estimate that by the end of the century forest regeneration could be hampered in degraded secondary forests that characterize much of Borneo's lowlands if temperatures continue to rise following projected trends.
Written Summary:Local‐scale microclimatic conditions in forest understoreys play a key role in shaping the composition, diversity and function of these ecosystems. Yet our ability to capture microclimate at scales relevant for management and conservation remains inherently limited. By combining a network of microclimate sensors with high‐resolution airborne laser scanning data acquired across a land‐use intensity gradient in Borneo, here we characterise how topography and canopy structure shape variation in microclimate in human‐modified tropical landscapes. We estimate that by 2080 forest regeneration could be hampered in large tracts of degraded secondary forest that make up much of Borneo’s lowlands.
A widespread increase in forest cover is underway in northern Mediterranean forests because of land abandonment and decreased wood demand, but the resilience of these successional forests to climate ...change remains unresolved. Here we use 18‐year time series of canopy greenness derived from satellite imagery (NDVI) to evaluate the impacts of climate change on Spain's forests. Specifically, we analyzed how NDVI was influenced by the climatic water balance (i.e. Standardized Precipitation‐Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI), using monthly time‐series extracted from 3,100 pixels of forest, categorized into ten forest types. The forests increased in leaf area index by 0.01 per year on average (from 1.7 in 2000 to 1.9 in 2017) but there was enormous variation among years related to climatic water balance. Forest types varied in response to drought events: those dominated by drought‐avoiding species showed strong covariance between greenness and SPEI, while those dominated by drought‐tolerant species showed weak covariance. Native forests usually recovered more than 80% of greenness within the 18 months and the remainder within 5 years, but plantations of Eucalyptus were less resilient. Management to increase the resilience of forests—a key goal of forestry in the Mediterranean region—appears to have had a positive effect: canopy greenness within protected forests was more resilient to drought than within non‐protected forests. In conclusion, many of Spain's successional forests have been resilient to drought over the past 18 years, from the perspective of space. Future studies will need to combine remote sensing with field‐based analyses of physiological tolerances and mortality processes to understand how Mediterranean forests will respond to the rapid climate change predicted for this region in the coming decades.
Time‐series of canopy greenness can be analysed alongside environmental factors, species composition and management regimes, to better understand forest resilience to drought. In Spain, forests are on average greening despite drying trends. This resilience manifests in the short term with native species activating drought tolerance and avoidance mechanisms (i.e. losing and gaining little like chestnuts to losing and gaining a lot of greenness like maritime pines). The non‐native eucalypt‐dominated forests have low short‐term resilience (i.e. do not recover enough after droughts). Factors such as water balance, elevation and protection status greatly influence these drought response patterns.
Forest regeneration and expansion are occurring in many countries, with 80 million ha established from 2000 to 2012 under the Bonn accord and 17.5 million ha established from 1990 to 2005 according ...to the Food and Agriculture Organisation. Multiple reviews have linked increasing forest cover with reduced river flow and potentially detrimental effects downstream. Previous reviews have investigated trends in river flow response over time, but the influence of forest age remains uncertain. Partial river flow recovery (towards non‐forested conditions) has been reported in decades following forest establishment, but the role of climate in driving these trends has not been explored. Here, we evaluate river flow trends in 43 studies following forest establishment, which provide sufficient information to distinguish the effects of ageing forests from variable climate. Our meta‐analysis supports previous findings showing that forestation reduces annual river flow (by 23% after 5 years and 38% after 25 years) with greater reductions in catchments with higher mean annual precipitation, larger increases in forest cover, and which were idle, rather than agricultural land, prior to forestation. The impact of forests on river flow is sensitive to annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, but responses are highly variable. Forests affect river flow less when annual precipitation is low, and sensitivity to precipitation decreases as catchment aridity increases. The majority of catchments demonstrated persistent river flow declines after forest establishment. However, nine catchments showed partial flow recovery after an initial decrease, with peak flow reductions at an average age of 15 and across a range of tree species. The mean rate of recovery was 34 mm/year over 5 years. Partial flow recovery with forest age cannot be commonly expected, however, and forestation programmes should take into account that changes to annual river flow are likely to persist for up to five decades.
Forestation reduces annual river flow in many catchments worldwide. We build on previous systematic reviews to show how forestation affects river flow through time, as a function of forest age and as a result of variable climate. We find there is little evidence at the catchment scale that river flows will partially recover with forest age, and that converting agricultural land to forest has a smaller effect on river flow than converting idle land.
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