Breast cancer (BC) risk prediction allows systematic identification of individuals at highest and lowest risk. We extend the Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation ...Algorithm (BOADICEA) risk model to incorporate the effects of polygenic risk scores (PRS) and other risk factors (RFs).
BOADICEA incorporates the effects of truncating variants in BRCA1, BRCA2, PALB2, CHEK2, and ATM; a PRS based on 313 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) explaining 20% of BC polygenic variance; a residual polygenic component accounting for other genetic/familial effects; known lifestyle/hormonal/reproductive RFs; and mammographic density, while allowing for missing information.
Among all factors considered, the predicted UK BC risk distribution is widest for the PRS, followed by mammographic density. The highest BC risk stratification is achieved when all genetic and lifestyle/hormonal/reproductive/anthropomorphic factors are considered jointly. With all factors, the predicted lifetime risks for women in the UK population vary from 2.8% for the 1st percentile to 30.6% for the 99th percentile, with 14.7% of women predicted to have a lifetime risk of ≥17-<30% (moderate risk according to National Institute for Health and Care Excellence NICE guidelines) and 1.1% a lifetime risk of ≥30% (high risk).
This comprehensive model should enable high levels of BC risk stratification in the general population and women with family history, and facilitate individualized, informed decision-making on prevention therapies and screening.
The CanRisk Tool (https://canrisk.org) is the next-generation web interface for the latest version of the BOADICEA (Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm) ...state-of-the-art risk model and a forthcoming ovarian cancer risk model.
The tool captures information on family history, rare pathogenic variants in cancer susceptibility genes, polygenic risk scores, lifestyle/hormonal/clinical features, and imaging risk factors to predict breast and ovarian cancer risks and estimate the probabilities of carrying pathogenic variants in certain genes. It was implemented using modern web frameworks, technologies, and web services to make it extensible and increase accessibility to researchers and third-party applications. The design of the graphical user interface was informed by feedback from health care professionals and a formal evaluation.
This freely accessible tool was designed to be user friendly for clinicians and to boost acceptability in clinical settings. The tool incorporates a novel graphical pedigree builder to facilitate collection of the family history data required by risk calculations.
The CanRisk Tool provides health care professionals and researchers with a user-friendly interface to carry out multifactorial breast and ovarian cancer risk predictions. It is the first freely accessible cancer risk prediction program to carry the CE marking.
There have been over 3,100 account registrations, and 98,000 breast and ovarian cancer risk calculations have been run within the first 9 months of the CanRisk Tool launch.
There is a growing focus on the development of multi-factorial cancer risk prediction algorithms alongside tools that operationalise them for clinical use. BOADICEA is a breast and ovarian cancer ...risk prediction model incorporating genetic and other risk factors. A new user-friendly Web-based tool (CanRisk.org) has been developed to apply BOADICEA. This study aimed to explore the acceptability of the prototype CanRisk tool among two healthcare professional groups to inform further development, evaluation and implementation.
A multi-methods approach was used. Clinicians from primary care and specialist genetics clinics in England, France and Germany were invited to use the CanRisk prototype with two test cases (either face-to-face with a simulated patient or via a written vignette). Their views about the tool were examined via a semi-structured interview or equivalent open-ended questionnaire. Qualitative data were subjected to thematic analysis and organised around Sekhon's Theoretical Framework of Acceptability.
Seventy-five clinicians participated, 21 from primary care and 54 from specialist genetics clinics. Participants were from England (n = 37), France (n = 23) and Germany (n = 15). The prototype CanRisk tool was generally acceptable to most participants due to its intuitive design. Primary care clinicians were concerned about the amount of time needed to complete, interpret and communicate risk information. Clinicians from both settings were apprehensive about the impact of the CanRisk tool on their consultations and lack of opportunities to interpret risk scores before sharing them with their patients.
The findings highlight the challenges associated with developing a complex tool for use in different clinical settings; they also helped refine the tool. This prototype may not have been versatile enough for clinical use in both primary care and specialist genetics clinics where the needs of clinicians are different, emphasising the importance of understanding the clinical context when developing cancer risk assessment tools.
Epithelial tubo-ovarian cancer (EOC) has high mortality partly due to late diagnosis. Prevention is available but may be associated with adverse effects. A multifactorial risk model based on known ...genetic and epidemiological risk factors (RFs) for EOC can help identify women at higher risk who could benefit from targeted screening and prevention.
We developed a multifactorial EOC risk model for women of European ancestry incorporating the effects of pathogenic variants (PVs) in
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, a Polygenic Risk Score (PRS) of arbitrary size, the effects of RFs and explicit family history (FH) using a synthetic model approach. The PRS, PV and RFs were assumed to act multiplicatively.
Based on a currently available PRS for EOC that explains 5% of the EOC polygenic variance, the estimated lifetime risks under the multifactorial model in the general population vary from 0.5% to 4.6% for the first to 99th percentiles of the EOC risk distribution. The corresponding range for women with an affected first-degree relative is 1.9%-10.3%. Based on the combined risk distribution, 33% of
PV carriers are expected to have a lifetime EOC risk of less than 10%. RFs provided the widest distribution, followed by the PRS. In an independent partial model validation, absolute and relative 5-year risks were well calibrated in quintiles of predicted risk.
This multifactorial risk model can facilitate stratification, in particular among women with FH of cancer and/or moderate-risk and high-risk PVs. The model is available via the CanRisk Tool (www.canrisk.org).
The proliferation of gene panel testing precipitates the need for a breast cancer (BC) risk model that incorporates the effects of mutations in several genes and family history (FH). We extended the ...BOADICEA model to incorporate the effects of truncating variants in PALB2, CHEK2, and ATM.
The BC incidence was modeled via the explicit effects of truncating variants in BRCA1/2, PALB2, CHEK2, and ATM and other unobserved genetic effects using segregation analysis methods.
The predicted average BC risk by age 80 for an ATM mutation carrier is 28%, 30% for CHEK2, 50% for PALB2, and 74% for BRCA1 and BRCA2. However, the BC risks are predicted to increase with FH burden. In families with mutations, predicted risks for mutation-negative members depend on both FH and the specific mutation. The reduction in BC risk after negative predictive testing is greatest when a BRCA1 mutation is identified in the family, but for women whose relatives carry a CHEK2 or ATM mutation, the risks decrease slightly.
The model may be a valuable tool for counseling women who have undergone gene panel testing for providing consistent risks and harmonizing their clinical management. A Web application can be used to obtain BC risks in clinical practice (http://ccge.medschl.cam.ac.uk/boadicea/).
Genet Med18 12, 1190–1198.
The multifactorial risk prediction model BOADICEA enables identification of women at higher or lower risk of developing breast cancer. BOADICEA models genetic susceptibility in terms of the effects ...of rare variants in breast cancer susceptibility genes and a polygenic component, decomposed into an unmeasured and a measured component - the polygenic risk score (PRS). The current version was developed using a 313 SNP PRS. Here, we evaluated approaches to incorporating this PRS and alternative PRS in BOADICEA.
The mean, SD, and proportion of the overall polygenic component explained by the PRS (α2) need to be estimated. $\alpha $ was estimated using logistic regression, where the age-specific log-OR is constrained to be a function of the age-dependent polygenic relative risk in BOADICEA; and using a retrospective likelihood (RL) approach that models, in addition, the unmeasured polygenic component.
Parameters were computed for 11 PRS, including 6 variations of the 313 SNP PRS used in clinical trials and implementation studies. The logistic regression approach underestimates $\alpha $, as compared with the RL estimates. The RL $\alpha $ estimates were very close to those obtained by assuming proportionality to the OR per 1 SD, with the constant of proportionality estimated using the 313 SNP PRS. Small variations in the SNPs included in the PRS can lead to large differences in the mean.
BOADICEA can be readily adapted to different PRS in a manner that maintains consistency of the model.
: The methods described facilitate comprehensive breast cancer risk assessment.
The CanRisk tool enables the collection of risk factor information and calculation of estimated future breast cancer risks based on the multifactorial Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence ...and Carrier Estimation Algorithm (BOADICEA) model. Despite BOADICEA being recommended in National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines and CanRisk being freely available for use, the CanRisk tool has not yet been widely implemented in primary care.
To explore the barriers to and facilitators of the implementation of the CanRisk tool in primary care.
A multi-methods study was conducted with primary care practitioners (PCPs) in the East of England.
Participants used the CanRisk tool to complete two vignette-based case studies; semi-structured interviews gained feedback about the tool; and questionnaires collected demographic details and information about the structural characteristics of the practices.
Sixteen PCPs (eight GPs and eight nurses) completed the study. The main barriers to implementation included: time needed to complete the tool; competing priorities; IT infrastructure; and PCPs' lack of confidence and knowledge to use the tool. Main facilitators included: easy navigation of the tool; its potential clinical impact; and the increasing availability of and expectation to use risk prediction tools.
There is now a greater understanding of the barriers and facilitators that exist when using CanRisk in primary care. The study has highlighted that future implementation activities should focus on reducing the time needed to complete a CanRisk calculation, integrating the CanRisk tool into existing IT infrastructure, and identifying appropriate contexts in which to conduct a CanRisk calculation. PCPs may also benefit from information about cancer risk assessment and CanRisk-specific training.
Abstract
Motivation
The collection, management and visualization of clinical pedigree (family history) data is a core activity in clinical genetics centres. However, clinical pedigree datasets can be ...difficult to manage, as they are time consuming to capture, and can be difficult to build, manipulate and visualize graphically. Several standalone graphical pedigree editors and drawing applications exist but there are no freely available lightweight graphical pedigree editors that can be easily configured and incorporated into web applications.
Results
We developed 'pedigreejs', an interactive graphical pedigree editor written in JavaScript, which uses standard pedigree nomenclature. Pedigreejs provides an easily configurable, extensible and lightweight pedigree editor. It makes use of an open-source Javascript library to define a hierarchical layout and to produce images in scalable vector graphics (SVG) format that can be viewed and edited in web browsers.
Availability and implementation
The software is freely available under GPL licence (https://ccge-boadicea.github.io/pedigreejs/).
Supplementary information
Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.
•Of 3 identified missense genetic variants in ICAM1, rs5491 was common in individuals of Black race/ethnicity and rare in other race/ethnic groups.•Among Black individuals, rs5491 was associated with ...higher circulating ICAM-1 levels.•In Black individuals, the presence of rs5491 was associated with an increased risk of incident heart failure with preserved ejection fraction in our primary cohort and with overall heart failure in a separate cohort. These findings suggest that a common missense variant of ICAM1 in individuals of Black race/ethnicity is associated with risk of heart failure.
Intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (ICAM-1) is a cell surface protein that participates in endothelial activation and is hypothesized to play a central role in heart failure (HF). We evaluated associations of ICAM1 missense genetic variants with circulating ICAM-1 levels and with incident HF.
We identified 3 missense variants within ICAM1 (rs5491, rs5498 and rs1799969) and evaluated their associations with ICAM-1 levels in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study and the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). We determined the association among these 3 variants and incident HF in MESA. We separately evaluated significant associations in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. Of the 3 missense variants, rs5491 was common in Black participants (minor allele frequency MAF > 20%) and rare in other race/ethnic groups (MAF < 5%). In Black participants, the presence of rs5491 was associated with higher levels of circulating ICAM-1 at 2 timepoints separated by 8 years. Among Black participants in MESA (n = 1600), the presence of rs5491 was associated with an increased risk of incident HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF; HR = 2.30; 95% CI 1.25–4.21; P = 0.007). The other ICAM1 missense variants (rs5498 and rs1799969) were associated with ICAM-1 levels, but there were no associations with HF. In ARIC, rs5491 was significantly associated with incident HF (HR = 1.24 95% CI 1.02 – 1.51; P = 0.03), with a similar direction of effect for HFpEF that was not statistically significant.
A common ICAM1 missense variant among Black individuals may be associated with increased risk of HF, which may be HFpEF-specific.
Visual Take Home Graphic: Missense Genetic Variation in ICAM1 and Incident HF. We identified 3 missense genetic variants of ICAM1. Of these 3 variants, 1 (rs5491) was common in individuals of Black race/ethnicity and rare in other race/ethnic cohorts. The presence of rs5491 was associated with higher circulating ICAM-1 levels. In Black individuals in MESA, rs5491 was associated with incident HFpEF. In a separate cohort of Black individuals, rs5491 was associated with incident HF. Display omitted
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