Australia is underprepared for a rabies incursion due to a lack of information about how a rabies outbreak would spread within the susceptible canine populations and which control strategies would be ...best to control it. The aim of this study was to collect information to parameterize a recently developed dog rabies spread model as well as use this information to gauge how the community would accept potential control strategies. Such information-together with model outputs-would be used to inform decision makers on the best control strategies and improve Australia's preparedness against a canine rabies incursion. The parameters this study focussed on were detection time, vaccination rates and dog-culling and dog movement restriction compliance. A cross-sectional survey of 31 dog-owners, using a questionnaire, was undertaken in the five communities of the Northern Peninsular Area (NPA) in northern Australia regarding community dog movements, veterinary visits, reporting systems, perceptions of sick dogs and potential human behaviours during hypothetical rabies outbreaks. It highlighted the significant shortfalls in veterinary care that would need to be vastly improved during an outbreak, who educational programs should be targeted towards and which dog movements should be restricted. The results indicate that men were significantly more likely than women to allow their dogs to roam and to move their dogs. The current low vaccination rate of 12% highlighted the limited veterinary services that would need to be substantially increased to achieve effective rabies control. Participation in mass vaccination was accepted by 100% of the respondents. There was lower acceptance for other possible rabies control strategies with 10-20% of the respondents stating a resistance to both a mass culling program and a ban on dog movements. Consequently, movement bans and mass dog culling would have limited effectiveness as a control strategy in the NPA community. More than half of the respondents said that they would report their sick dogs within a week. This would lead to a much more optimistic rabies detection time than observed in other regions with recent dog rabies outbreaks. Findings from this study can be used to parameterize a recently developed dog rabies spread model as well as to develop informed policies for managing a future rabies incursion, thus improving Australia's preparedness against a canine rabies incursion.
The global rise in companion animal populations, particularly dogs and cats, is driven by emotional and social benefits for owners, and their population management is becoming critically important to ...avoid a plethora of adverse effects on themselves, humans, and wildlife. We estimated the size and density of the owned canine and feline population in Chile and evaluated the status of microchipping, registration, sterilization rates, and the proportion of owned animals that roam unsupervised. A cross-sectional household survey in 36 districts was conducted and standard inferential statistics was employed to analyze differences between cats and dogs, sexes within each species, and between rural and urban areas. Additionally, two negative binomial models with mixed effects were developed to predict the number of dogs and cats per households. Two methods were used to compare population size estimates at the country level, multiplying: (1) the estimated mean number of companion animals per household by the estimated number of households at the country level, and (2) the estimated human:dog and human:cat ratios by the total human population. The study involved 6333 respondents, of which 76% (74% urban; 83% rural) owned companion animals (dogs and/or cats). Individuals in rural multi-person households increase the probability of owning dogs and/or cats. Additionally, women exhibit a greater inclination towards cat and dog ownership compared to men, while those over 30 years old demonstrate lower rates of companion animal ownership in contrast to the 18–30 age group for both species. The overall human:dog and human:cat ratios estimated were 2.7:1, and 6.2:1, respectively. The estimated total number of owned dogs and cats in Chile ranged from 9.6 to 10.7 million, depending on the methodological approach, while national median density of companion animals was 12 dogs per km2 (ranging from 0.02 to 7232) and 5 cats per km2 (ranging from 0.01 to 3242). This nationwide study showed one of the highest percentages of households with companion animals in Latin America and relatively low registration and sterilization rates, highlighting the need to strength long-term public policies to control populations of companion animals and promote responsibility in pet ownership.
Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious disease that caused several large outbreaks in Europe in the last century. The last important outbreak in Switzerland took place in 1965/66 and ...affected more than 900 premises and more than 50,000 animals were slaughtered. Large-scale emergency vaccination of the cattle and pig population has been applied to control the epidemic. In recent years, many studies have used infectious disease models to assess the impact of different disease control measures, including models developed for diseases exotic for the specific region of interest. Often, the absence of real outbreak data makes a validation of such models impossible. This study aimed to evaluate whether a spatial, stochastic simulation model (the Davis Animal Disease Simulation model) can predict the course of a Swiss FMD epidemic based on the available historic input data on population structure, contact rates, epidemiology of the virus, and quality of the vaccine. In addition, the potential outcome of the 1965/66 FMD epidemic without application of vaccination was investigated. Comparing the model outcomes to reality, only the largest 10% of the simulated outbreaks approximated the number of animals being culled. However, the simulation model highly overestimated the number of culled premises. While the outbreak duration could not be well reproduced by the model compared to the 1965/66 epidemic, it was able to accurately estimate the size of the area infected. Without application of vaccination, the model predicted a much higher mean number of culled animals than with vaccination, demonstrating that vaccination was likely crucial in disease control for the Swiss FMD outbreak in 1965/66. The study demonstrated the feasibility to analyze historical outbreak data with modern analytical tools. However, it also confirmed that predicted epidemics from a most carefully parameterized model cannot integrate all eventualities of a real epidemic. Therefore, decision makers need to be aware that infectious disease models are useful tools to support the decision-making process but their results are not equal valuable as real observations and should always be interpreted with caution.
An investigation of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak was conducted between late October and mid-December 2019 in Tigray region. The outbreak investigation team collected epidemiological data ...from the six villages of Kafta Humera and Seharti Samre districts, including morbidity proportions, mortality proportions, and clinical signs, and cattle management and vaccination history were collected via participatory methods, including interviews and group discussions with local experts and farmers in Kafta Humera and reports from the district veterinarians in Seharti Samre. Twenty-two tissue samples were collected for laboratory confirmation. Overall, 4,299/9,811 (43.8%) and 13,654/16,921 (80.6%) cattle showed clinical signs for FMD in Kafta Humera and Seharti Samre, respectively. In Kafta Humera, the highest morbidity proportion was found in adult cows and heifers (48.1%), followed by 27.8% in oxen and 15.9% in calves. In Seharti Samre, the morbidity proportion was similar in all age groups at ~81%. No death of FMD-suspected cattle was reported throughout the outbreak. The serotype of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) identified by laboratory analysis differed between the two districts (serotype O in Kafta Humera and serotype A in Seharti Samre). We, therefore, suggest that the outbreaks in the two districts occurred independently from each other. Experts and farmers were interviewed and believed that the outbreak in Kafta Humera was most likely caused by interaction between cattle and wildlife from the surrounding Kafta Sheraro National Park, which share common grazing land. This outbreak investigation showed that FMD can cause devastating cattle morbidity. A regular vaccination program against the identified circulating FMDV serotypes with sufficient coverage is required to avoid future outbreaks.
Computer-based disease spread models are frequently used in veterinary science to simulate disease spread. They are used to predict the impacts of the disease, plan and assess surveillance, or ...control strategies, and provide insights about disease causation by comparing model outputs with real life data. There are many types of disease spread models, and here we present and describe the implementation of a particular type: individual-based models. Our aim is to provide a practical introduction to building individual-based disease spread models. We also introduce code examples with the goal to make these techniques more accessible to those who are new to the field. We describe the important steps in building such models before, during and after the programming stage, including model verification (to ensure that the model does what was intended), validation (to investigate whether the model results reflect the modeled system), and convergence analysis (to ensure models of endemic diseases are stable before outputs are collected). We also describe how sensitivity analysis can be used to assess the potential impact of uncertainty about model parameters. Finally, we provide an overview of some interesting recent developments in the field of disease spread models.
Disease transmission parameters are the core of epidemic models, but are difficult to estimate, especially in the absence of outbreak data. Investigation of the roaming behaviour, home range (HR) and ...utilization distribution (UD) can provide the foundation for such parameter estimation in free-ranging animals. The objectives of this study were to estimate HR and UD of 69 domestic dogs in six Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities in northern Australia and to compare four different methods (the minimum convex polygon, MCP; the location-based kernel density estimation, LKDE; the biased random bridge, BRB; and Time Local Convex Hull, T-LoCoH) for investigation of UD and estimating HR sizes. Global positioning system (GPS) collars were attached to community dogs for a period of 1–3 days and positions (fixes) were recorded every minute. Median core HRs (50% isopleth) of the 69 dogs were estimated to range from 0.2 to 0.4ha and the more extended HR (95% isopleth) to range from 2.5 to 5.3ha, depending on the method used. The HR and UD shapes were found to be generally circular around the dog owner's house. However, some individuals were found to roam much more with a HR size of 40–104ha and cover large areas of their community or occasionally beyond. These far roaming dogs are of particular interest for infectious disease transmission. Occasionally, dogs were taken between communities and out of communities for hunting, which enables the contact of dogs between communities and with wildlife (such as dingoes). The BRB and T-LoCoH are the only two methods applied here which integrate the consecutiveness of GPS locations into the analysis, a substantial advantage. The recently developed BRB method produced significantly larger HR estimates than the other two methods; however, the variability of HR sizes was lower compared to the other methods. Advantages of the BRB method include a more realistic analytical approach (kernel density estimation based on movements rather than on locations), possibilities to deal with irregular time periods between consecutive GPS fixes and parameter specification which respects the characteristics of the GPS unit used to collect the data. The BRB method was therefore the most suitable method for UD estimation in this dataset. The results of this study can further be used to contact rates between the dogs within and between communities, a foundation for estimating transmission parameters for canine infectious disease models, such as a rabies spread model in Australia.
Rabies is a zoonotic disease that is mainly transmitted to humans through dog bites. It remains a major public health threat in many Asian and African countries, including Uganda. The main objective ...of this study was to investigate awareness, knowledge, and perceptions of communities toward human and dog health related to rabies prevention, as well as dog management practices within Masaka district, central Uganda. Data collection involved nine key informant interviews (KIIs) and six focus group discussions (FGDs). Methods used during focus group discussions included qualitative interviews (using open-ended questions), simple ranking, and proportional piling. Data from KIIs and FGDs were analyzed using content analysis in NVivo (version 12.0). This study reveals that community members in the rural settings uses herbal concoctions in replacement or as an alternative to dog vaccination. Furthermore, the study reveals that dogs play the vital roles in the households like as they offer protection to people and household properties, despite being ranked second least among the household animals. The commonest livelihood activity was a small-scale mixed farming. Most of the households kept dogs, but they are ranked at second lowest in terms of economic value among all domestic animals. Free roaming and tethering were the common dog-keeping systems, and home-based feed (food leftovers, bones) was provided mainly to the tethered dogs. Rabies, also locally known as “
Eddalu Lyembwa”
(that can be translated as “madness of the dogs”), was ranked as the disease of most important among dogs, besides other common diseases such as skin diseases, venereal diseases, worm infestations, and tick infestations. Inadequate vaccination services for both humans and dogs were reported, and dog bite victims traveled a long distance to seek for post-exposure prophylaxis after dog bites. It can be concluded that there is a clear request for periodic mass vaccination campaigns against rabies among dogs, and access to vaccines within reasonable distances by humans after a rabies exposure, but also pre-emptive vaccination for those at high risk, such as veterinarians, needs to be improved.
Animal owners' potential to observe and report clinical signs, as the persons with the closest contact to their animals, is an often neglected source of information in surveillance. Allowing ...community members other than health care professionals, such as animal owners, to report health events can contribute to close current surveillance gaps and enhance early detection. In the present study, we tested a community-based surveillance (CBS) approach in the equine community in Switzerland. We aimed at revealing the attitudes and intentions of equine owners toward reporting clinical signs by making use of an online questionnaire. We further set up and operated an online CBS tool, named Equi-Commun. Finally, we investigated potential reasons for the lack of its use by applying qualitative telephone interviews. The majority of the respondents of the online questionnaire (65.5%, 707/1,078) answered that they could see themselves reporting clinical observations of their equine. The multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that French-speaking equine owners and those belonging to the positive attitude cluster are more likely to report to a CBS tool. Equi-Commun operated between October 2018 and December 2019 yet received only four reports. With the addition of qualitative interviews, we identified three critical, interlinked issues that may have led to the non-use of Equi-Commun within the Swiss equine community: (1) for successfully implementing CBS, the need for surveillance within the community of interest must be given; (2) the respective population under surveillance, here the equine, needs to show enough clinical cases for owners to be able to maintain the memory of an existing tool and its possible use; and (3) targeted and high effort communication of the system is key for its success. While CBS relying only on lay animal owners, complementary to existing surveillance systems, could potentially provide a good proxy of timely surveillance data, it is questionable whether the added value of generated surveillance knowledge is in balance with efforts necessary to implement a successful system. With this study, we showcased both the potential and challenges of CBS in animal health, as this may be of relevance and guidance for future initiatives.
Dog-mediated rabies is endemic in India. The country records the highest mortality due to dog-bite-related rabies despite the availability of interventions to prevent deaths. We present a case study ...of the death of a 59-year-old man in a suburban town of Northeast India after a dog bite from an owned pup. Through this case study, we investigate various omissions and commissions in communities and health professionals that make rabies rampant in India. The circumstances surrounding the death were investigated by interviewing the wife, relatives, neighbour, the hospital/nursing home where the bite case was reported, the district Rapid Response Team (RRT), and the Veterinary and Animal Health Department Officer and through the information recorded in the disease outbreak report. While the biting animal was not vaccinated and had no restriction over its movement imposed by the owners, the response of the hospital staff and public authorities was delayed and inadequate. A poignant reminder of the complexities surrounding dog-mediated rabies in India, this case study calls for a holistic protocol to address dog bites through ensuring the One Health approach encompassing education, provision of post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) and canine rabies vaccines for dogs, promotion of responsible dog ownership, and intersectoral collaboration. Moreover, strengthening communication channels through effective data exchange and encouraging synergy among healthcare, veterinary, and public health sectors is indispensable to maximize the impact of rabies prevention and control interventions.
•Northeast India is a hotspot for dog-mediated rabies.•Case study reveals gaps in wound management and prevention.•Lack of awareness and responsible dog ownership contribute to fatalities.•Novel insights on rabies dynamics in underserved regions.•Urgent need for One Health approach through intersectoral collaboration and communication to control dog-mediated rabies.
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