Time series forecasting is widely used to predict future values in several applications, such as climate, industries demand, stock markets and business strategies. Fuzzy set based time series (FTS) ...forecasting models are widely used to solve forecasting problems because of fuzzy logic’s ability to deal with uncertainties. But designing a FTS model can be a complex task since there are important hyperparameters to be defined that directly influence performance, mainly the number of fuzzy sets, model order, and membership function used. Therefore, this paper proposes ADPT2FTS, an interval type-2 FTS model that uses an Autonomous Data Partitioning Algorithm (ADP), capable of improving uncertainty handling and relying on an autonomous method for defining the number of fuzzy sets to be used. We also investigated how changing model order and membership function influenced forecasting accuracy to choose the best parameters to design the best performing model possible. ADPT2FTS performance was evaluated using two complex financial datasets: the European Brent Oil Prices (EBOP) and the Taiwan Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX); and two benchmark time series in the literature: University of Alabama Enrollments and Yealy Sunspot. The proposed model was compared to “state-of-art” forecasting models in the literature, designed with several different working mechanisms such as type-1 and type-2 fuzzy logic, neural networks and regression algorithms. Results show that ADPT2FTS achieved better performance and lower error values in terms of RMSE and MAPE metrics.
The main objective of this study is to obtain a better understanding of the spatial and temporal variability and trends of rainfall and river flow in the Cobres River basin, southern Portugal, using ...statistical tools. The present study is focused on the analysis of the trends in annual precipitations and river flow at a regional scale over 40 years (1960–2000). Datasets of daily precipitation recorded in eight rainfall stations and three river flow stations were analyzed. The nonparametric Mann–Kendall and Sen’s methods were used to determine whether there was a positive or negative trend in rainfall data with their statistical significance. A detailed statistical analysis applied to the river flow and rainfall time series of all gauges indicates that rainfall is highly temporally variable and there is a decrease in the annual rainfall amount for the period studied (1960–2000). Thus, there are signs of significant rainfall reduction in the basin, and in fact, some rain gauges show a small rainfall increase during the recent decades. The annual river flow variation has a cyclic behavior with a period length of approximately 10 years. The results seem integrated to the global and European continental scale findings: Decreasing trends are dominant for almost all indices; most of the calculated slopes are statistically insignificant; the distribution of positive and negative slopes in the area is extremely irregular; and the changes in basin are more significant compared to other studies.
The extent to which pre-Columbian societies altered Amazonian landscapes is hotly debated. We performed a basin-wide analysis of pre-Columbian impacts on Amazonian forests by overlaying known ...archaeological sites in Amazonia with the distributions and abundances of 85 woody species domesticated by pre-Columbian peoples. Domesticated species are five times more likely than nondomesticated species to be hyperdominant. Across the basin, the relative abundance and richness of domesticated species increase in forests on and around archaeological sites. In southwestern and eastern Amazonia, distance to archaeological sites strongly influences the relative abundance and richness of domesticated species. Our analyses indicate that modern tree communities in Amazonia are structured to an important extent by a long history of plant domestication by Amazonian peoples.
Despite evidence showing that the intake of ultra-processed food has a negative impact on health, diet quality and dietary vitamin E, its impact on vitamin E nutritional status and breast milk ...remains unknown. This study aimed to assess the influence of the consumption of ultra-processed foods on vitamin E biomarkers of lactating women. A cross-sectional study was performed with 294 lactating women. Food consumption was obtained by 24-h dietary recall, and foods were grouped according to the NOVA classification. Levels of α-tocopherol were analysed by HPLC. Breast milk vitamin E (BMVE) adequacy was based on the quantity of the vitamin in the estimated intake volume. The Kruskal–Wallis test was used to compare the tertiles and linear regression to association between ultra-processed food consumption and biomarkers. Ultra-processed foods accounted for 16 % of energy intake and vitamin E intakes by all women were considered low. Serum α-tocopherol was 26·55 (sd 7·98) µmol/l, 5 % (n 11) showed inadequate vitamin E (< 12 µmol/l) and 78 % had an inadequate BMVE content (< 4 mg/780 ml). The regression showed that a higher dietary share of ultra-processed foods was associated with lower concentrations of serum α-tocopherol (β = –0·168, 95 % CI –0·047, 0·010, P = 0·003) and inadequate BMVE content (β = –0·144, 95 % CI = –0·505, 0·063, P = 0·012) (adjustment for income and maternal age). Thus, higher dietary shares of ultra-processed foods had an impact on vitamin E biomarkers, suggesting that inadequate dietary intake practices during lactation may reduce the supply of vitamin E to women and breast milk.
Radioactive ^{27}Mg (t_{1/2}=9.5 min) was implanted into GaN of different doping types at CERN's ISOLDE facility and its lattice site determined via β^{-} emission channeling. Following ...implantations between room temperature and 800 °C, the majority of ^{27}Mg occupies the substitutional Ga sites; however, below 350 °C significant fractions were also found on interstitial positions ∼0.6 Å from ideal octahedral sites. The interstitial fraction of Mg was correlated with the GaN doping character, being highest (up to 31%) in samples doped p type with 2×10^{19} cm^{-3} stable Mg during epilayer growth, and lowest in Si-doped n-GaN, thus giving direct evidence for the amphoteric character of Mg. Implanting above 350 °C converts interstitial ^{27}Mg to substitutional Ga sites, which allows estimating the activation energy for migration of interstitial Mg as between 1.3 and 2.0 eV.
Angina bullosa haemorrhagica (ABH) is characterized by the recurrent appearance of blood blisters on the oral mucosa, mainly in adults' soft palate. In general, the blisters rupture spontaneously, ...lacking the necessity for biopsy. We report the clinical features of 23 ABH cases, emphasizing the clinical behavior and the management of these conditions.
A retrospective descriptive cross-sectional study was performed. A total of 12,727 clinical records of oral and maxillofacial lesions from four dental services in Brazil were analyzed. Clinical data were collected from the clinical records and evaluated.
The series comprised 12 males (52.2%) and 11 females (47.8%), with a mean age of 56.8 ± 14.6 years (ranging: 24-82 years) and a 1.1:1 male-to-female ratio. Most of the lesions affected the soft palate (n = 15, 65.2%). Clinically, the lesions presented mainly as an asymptomatic (n = 17, 73.9%) blood-filled blister that ruptured after a few minutes or hours, leaving an erosion. The masticatory trauma was the most frequent triggering event. No patient had coagulation disorders. A biopsy was performed in only four cases (17.4%). Treatment was symptomatic with a favorable outcome.
ABH is still poorly documented in the literature, and its etiology remains uncertain. ABH mainly affects the soft palate of elderly adults and has a favorable evolution in a few days. The therapeutic approach is often focused only on the relief of symptoms. However, it can share some clinical features with more serious diseases. Therefore, clinicians must recognize these lesions to avoid misdiagnosis.
Emerging evidence suggests a role for purinergic signaling in the activation of multiprotein intracellular complexes called inflammasomes, which control the release of potent inflammatory cytokines, ...such as interleukin (IL) -1β and -18. Porphyromonas gingivalis is intimately associated with periodontitis and is currently considered one of the pathogens that can subvert the immune system by limiting the activation of the NLRP3 inflammasome. We recently showed that P. gingivalis can dampen eATP-induced IL-1β secretion by means of its fimbriae in a purinergic P2X7 receptor–dependent manner. Here, we further explore the role of this purinergic receptor during eATP-induced IL-1β processing and secretion by P. gingivalis–infected macrophages. We found that NLRP3 was necessary for eATP-induced IL-1β secretion as well as for caspase 1 activation irrespective of P. gingivalis fimbriae. Additionally, although the secretion of IL-1β from P. gingivalis–infected macrophages was dependent on NLRP3, its adaptor protein ASC, or caspase 1, the cleavage of intracellular pro-IL-1β to the mature form was found to occur independently of NLRP3, its adaptor protein ASC, or caspase 1. Our in vitro findings revealed that P2X7 receptor has a dual role, being critical not only for eATP-induced IL-1β secretion but also for intracellular pro-IL-1β processing. These results were relevant in vivo since P2X7 receptor expression was upregulated in a P. gingivalis oral infection model, and reduced IFN-γ and IL-17 were detected in draining lymph node cells from P2rx7-/- mice. Furthermore, we demonstrated that P2X7 receptor and NLRP3 transcription were modulated in human chronic periodontitis. Overall, we conclude that the P2X7 receptor has a role in periodontal immunopathogenesis and suggest that targeting of the P2X7/NLRP3 pathway should be considered in future therapeutic interventions in periodontitis.
When the first suspected cases of neurologic disorders associated with the Zika virus were noticed in Brazil in late 2015, several studies had been conducted to understand the pathophysiology of the ...disease and its associated complications. In addition to its well-established association with microcephaly in neonates, the Zika virus infection has also been suggested to trigger other severe neurologic complications in adults, such as Guillain-Barré syndrome, radiculomyelitis, and meningoencephalitis. Hence, the Zika virus should be deemed a global threat that can cause devastating neurologic complications among individuals in all age ranges. The aim of this review was to further describe neuroimaging findings of Zika virus infection and associated neurologic complications found in adults.
The absorption of atmospheric water directly into leaves enables plants to alleviate the water stress caused by low soil moisture, hydraulic resistance in the xylem and the effect of gravity on the ...water column, while enabling plants to scavenge small inputs of water from leaf‐wetting events. By increasing the availability of water, and supplying it from the top of the canopy (in a direction facilitated by gravity), foliar uptake (FU) may be a significant process in determining how forests interact with climate, and could alter our interpretation of current metrics for hydraulic stress and sensitivity. FU has not been reported for lowland tropical rainforests; we test whether FU occurs in six common Amazonian tree genera in lowland Amazônia, and make a first estimation of its contribution to canopy–atmosphere water exchange. We demonstrate that FU occurs in all six genera and that dew‐derived water may therefore be used to “pay” for some morning transpiration in the dry season. Using meteorological and canopy wetness data, coupled with empirically derived estimates of leaf conductance to FU (kfu), we estimate that the contribution by FU to annual transpiration at this site has a median value of 8.2% (103 mm/year) and an interquartile range of 3.4%–15.3%, with the biggest sources of uncertainty being kfu and the proportion of time the canopy is wet. Our results indicate that FU is likely to be a common strategy and may have significant implications for the Amazon carbon budget. The process of foliar water uptake may also have a profound impact on the drought tolerance of individual Amazonian trees and tree species, and on the cycling of water and carbon, regionally and globally.
We demonstrate that foliar water uptake (FU) occurs in six common Amazonian tree genera. Using meteorological and canopy wetness data, coupled with empirically derived estimates of leaf conductance to FU, we estimate the contribution by FU to annual transpiration at this site has a median value of 8% (103 mm/year) and an interquartile range of 3%–15%. Our results indicate that FU is likely to be a common strategy in Amazonian rainforest and may have significant implications for the Amazon carbon budget and potentially also influence the drought tolerance of individual Amazonian trees and tree species.
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