This study evaluates the PM2.5 pollution-related health impacts on the national and provincial economy of China using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and the latest nonlinear ...exposure–response functions. Results show that the health and economic impacts may be substantial in provinces with a high PM2.5 concentration. In the WoPol scenario without PM2.5 pollution control policy, we estimate that China experiences a 2.00% GDP loss and 25.2 billion USD in health expenditure from PM2.5 pollution in 2030. In contrast, with control policy in the WPol scenario, a control investment of 101.8 billion USD (0.79% of GDP) and a gain of 1.17% of China’s GDP from improving PM2.5 pollution are projected. At the provincial level, GDP loss in 2030 in the WoPol scenario is high in Tianjin (3.08%), Shanghai (2.98%), Henan (2.32%), Beijing (2.75%), and Hebei (2.60%) and the top five provinces with the highest additional health expenditure are Henan, Sichuan, Shandong, Hebei, and Jiangsu. Controlling PM2.5 pollution could bring positive benefits in two-thirds of provinces. Tianjin, Shanghai, Beijing, Henan, Jiangsu, and Hebei experience most benefits from PM2.5 pollution control as a result of a higher PM2.5 pollution and dense population distribution. Conversely, the control investment is higher than GDP gain in some underdeveloped provinces, such as Ningxia, Guizhou, Shanxi, Gansu, and Yunnan.
Many studies have reported associations between air pollution and health impacts, but few studies have explicitly differentiated the economic effects of PM2.5 and ozone at China's regional level. ...This study compares the PM2.5 and ozone pollution-related health impacts based on an integrated approach. The research framework combines an air pollutant emission projection model (GAINS), an air quality model (GEOS-Chem), a health model using the latest exposure-response functions, medical prices and value of statistical life (VSL), and a general equilibrium model (CGE). Results show that eastern provinces in China encounter severer loss from PM2.5 and more benefit from mitigation policy, whereas the lower income western provinces encounter severer health impacts and economic burdens due to ozone pollution, and the impact in southern and central provinces is relatively lower. In 2030, without control policies, PM 2.5 pollution could lead to losses of 2.0% in Gross Domestic Production (GDP), 210 billion Chinese Yuan (CNY) in health expenditure and a life loss of around 10,000 billion, while ozone pollution could contribute to GDP loss by 0.09% (equivalent to 78 billion CNY), 310 billion CNY in health expenditure, and a life loss of 2300 billion CNY (equivalent to 2.7% of GDP). By contrast, with control policies, the GDP and VSLs loss in 2030 attributable to ambient air pollution could be reduced significantly. We also find that the health and economic impacts of ozone pollution are significantly lower than PM2.5, but are much more difficult to mitigate. The Chinese government should promote air pollution control policies that could jointly reduce PM2.5 and ozone pollution.
•PM2.5 and ozone pollution-related health and economic impacts are compared.•An integrated economy-air pollution-health assessment framework is adopted.•Without control PM2.5 and ozone pollution may cause 2.0% and 0.09% GDP loss in 2030.•Benefits of controlling ambient air pollution would be huge all over China.
•We assessed the economic impacts of renewable energy (RE) development in China.•Using a CGE model with novel improvement in investment behavior of power sector.•Large-scale RE development by 2050 ...would not incur a significant macroeconomic cost.•Developing RE benefits the upstream industry and have environmental cobenefits.
This study assesses the economic impacts and environmental co-benefits of large-scale development of renewable energy (RE) in China toward 2050 using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with distinguished improvements in the power sector. Two scenarios are constructed: a reference scenario assuming conventional development of RE and an REmax scenario assuming large-scale RE development by tapping China’s RE potential. The results show that large-scale RE development would not incur a significant macroeconomic cost. On the contrary, it would have significant green growth effects that benefit the growth of upstream industries, reshape the energy structure, and bring substantial environmental co-benefits. If the share of RE reaches 56% in the total primary energy in 2050, then non-fossil power sectors will become a mainstay industry with value added accounting for 3.4% of the GDP, a share comparable to other sectors such as agriculture (2.5%), iron and steel (3.3%), and construction (2.1%). In RE max scenario, the large scale RE development will stimulate the output worth of $1.18 trillion from other RE related upstream industries and create 4.12 million jobs in 2050. In addition to economic benefits, it could substantially reduce the emissions of CO2 and air pollutants such as NOx, SO2.
Millions of households in many underdeveloped countries use coal stoves for heating, which remains a major air pollution source. Since 2015, policies for substituting residential coal use with ...electricity have been implemented at unprecedented levels in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region, one of the most severely air polluted areas in China. This study evaluated the health benefits of the residential “coal-to-electricity” policy in the BTH region. We developed an integrated assessment model to investigate the impact of the policy on both the ambient and indoor air quality improvement. The private health benefits from indoor air quality improvements do not justify the costs. However, adding the spillover public health benefits from ambient air quality improvements, the policy brings net social benefits to the BTH region. Compared to a no-policy scenario, Beijing obtains the most health benefits and enjoys the most synergies from regional cooperation among the three provinces/municipalities. Hebei bears the highest cost since it has more households fueled by coal. Our results showing net social benefits provide support for a massive and accelerated implementation of this policy in the BTH region. The provincial distributional results can provide a reference for subsidies from Beijing and Tianjin to Hebei for achieving region-wide implementation.
•Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is substituting residential heating coal use with electricity.•We evaluated the heath benefit and direct cost of this policy in 2020 and 2030.•Health benefit is 41 (18) billion Yuan associated with ambient (indoor) air quality.•Direct cost of the coal to electricity policy is 22 billion Yuan in 2020.•Subsidy is needed for Hebei to realize the region-wide net social benefits.
Both air pollutant and carbon emissions are serious problems in China, particularly the economic and pollution intensive urban agglomerations. Therefore, this paper selected the most severely ...polluted Jing-Jin-Ji region (Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei urban clusters) to study the potential of mitigating both carbon and air pollutant emission. The Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was applied and six scenarios were constructed by considering policies of environmental tax and renewable energy. Business-as-usual (BaU) scenario assumed no tax and fixed renewable energy to 2002 level, whereas other scenarios assumed that intensified renewable energy (RE) and tax on sulfur dioxide (SO2) (TAX1 and TAX2) were implemented either alone or combined. The results indicated that both RE and SO2 tax could contribute to regional low-carbon development and air pollutant reduction, and the reduction is about 10–40% depending on scenarios. However, Renewable energy is always more effective in reducing CO2 and air pollutant emissions than TAX1 but less effective than TAX2 for Hebei. From the sectoral perspective, power sector would exhibit both the largest emissions and reduction potentials in all three Cities, accounting for about 21%, 31% and 28% of total CO2 emissions respectively for Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, in 2020. Considering different policies, it is more effective for Hebei to apply renewable energy to reduce its power sector emissions in the long term, and tax policy is more effective for emission reduction from other sectors in Tianjin. Further analysis on the economic impact of mitigation policy revealed that Tianjin and Beijing would suffer relatively greater negative impacts than Hebei in terms of loss in total GDP, while developing renewable energy could help to reduce such negative impacts. It is suggested that the policymakers need to take into accounts the regional economic situation and natural resource potential when they formulate low-carbon policies.
•SO2 tax and renewable energy impact on air pollutants and CO2 reduction are revealed.•We use IMED/CGE model to evaluate economic impact of CO2 and air pollution mitigation.•Tax and renewable energy could reduce carbon and pollutants emission in this area.•We quantified the sectoral contribution to carbon and pollutants emission reduction.
PM2.5 pollution-related diseases cause additional medical expenses and work time loss, leading to macroeconomic impact in high PM2.5 concentration areas. Previous economic impact assessments of air ...pollution focused on benefits from environmental regulations while ignoring climate policies. In this study, we examine the health and economic impacts from PM2.5 pollution under various air pollution control strategies and climate policies scenarios in the megacity of Shanghai. The estimation adopts an integrated model combining a Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model, exposure-response functions (ERFs), and a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The results show that without control measures, Shanghai’s mortality caused by PM2.5 pollution are estimated to be 192 400 cases in 2030 and the work time loss to be 72.1 h/cap annually. The corresponding GDP values and welfare losses would be approximately 2.26% and 3.14%, respectively. With an estimated control cost of 0.76% of local GDP, Shanghai would gain approximately 1.01% of local GDP through local air pollution control measures and climate policies. Furthermore, the application of multiregional integrated control strategies in neighboring provinces would be the most effective in reducing PM2.5 concentration in Shanghai, leading to only 0.34% of GDP loss. At the sectoral level, labor-intensive sectors suffer more output loss from PM2.5 pollution. Sectors with the highest control costs include power generation, iron and steel, and transport. The results indicate that the combination of multiregional integrated air pollution control strategies and climate policies would be cost-beneficial for Shanghai.
Abstract
Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can be traced to five economic sectors: energy, industry, buildings, transport and AFOLU (agriculture, forestry and other land uses). In this topical ...review, we synthesise the literature to explain recent trends in global and regional emissions in each of these sectors. To contextualise our review, we present estimates of GHG emissions trends by sector from 1990 to 2018, describing the major sources of emissions growth, stability and decline across ten global regions. Overall, the literature and data emphasise that progress towards reducing GHG emissions has been limited. The prominent global pattern is a continuation of underlying drivers with few signs of emerging limits to demand, nor of a deep shift towards the delivery of low and zero carbon services across sectors. We observe a moderate decarbonisation of energy systems in Europe and North America, driven by fuel switching and the increasing penetration of renewables. By contrast, in rapidly industrialising regions, fossil-based energy systems have continuously expanded, only very recently slowing down in their growth. Strong demand for materials, floor area, energy services and travel have driven emissions growth in the industry, buildings and transport sectors, particularly in Eastern Asia, Southern Asia and South-East Asia. An expansion of agriculture into carbon-dense tropical forest areas has driven recent increases in AFOLU emissions in Latin America, South-East Asia and Africa. Identifying, understanding, and tackling the most persistent and climate-damaging trends across sectors is a fundamental concern for research and policy as humanity treads deeper into the Anthropocene.
Economic impact assessments of air pollution-related health effects from a sectoral perspective in China is still deficient. This study evaluates the PM2.5 pollution-related health impacts of the ...road transport sector on China's economy at both national and provincial levels in 2030 under various air mitigation technologies scenarios. Health impacts are estimated using an integrated approach that combines the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model, a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and a health model. Results show that at a national level, the road transport sector leads to 163.64 thousand deaths per year, increases the per capita risk of morbidity by 0.37% and accounts for 1.43 billion Yuan in health care expenditures. We estimate 442.90 billion Yuan of the value of statistical life loss and 2.09 h/capita of work time loss in 2015. Without additional control measures, air pollution related to the transport sector will cause 177.50 thousand deaths in 2030, a 0.40% per capita increase in the risk of morbidity, accounting for 4.12 billion Yuan in health care expenditures, 737.15 billion Yuan of statistical life loss and 2.23 h/capita of work time loss. Based on our model, implementing the most strict control strategy scenario would decrease mortality by 42.14%, morbidity risk by 42.14%, health care expenditures by 41.94%, statistical life loss by 26.22% and hours of work time loss by 42.65%, comparing with the no control measure scenario. In addition, PM2.5 pollution from the road transport sector will cause 0.68% GDP loss in 2030. At a provincial level, GDP losses in 14 out of 30 provinces far exceed the national rate. Henan (1.20%), Sichuan (1.07%), Chongqing (0.99%), Hubei (0.94%), and Shandong (0.90%) would experience the highest GDP loss in 2030. Implementing control strategies to reduce PM2.5 pollution in the road transport sector could bring positive benefits in half of the Chinese provinces especially in provinces that suffer greater health impacts from the road transport sector (such as Henan and Sichuan).
•Economic and health impacts from PM2.5 are evaluated for China's road transport sector.•An integrated approach was adopted by combining three different models.•Both national and provincial levels are covered.•Regional disparities have been identified for policy implications.
•First global model comparison with harmonized socio-economic assumptions for China.•First soft-linking study that down-scales global energy scenarios for three regions of China.•Key results for ...China are benchmarked with 23 global models from the Asia Modelling Exercise.•A highly transparent, interdisciplinary and open-data scenario analysis approach.
As the world’s largest CO2 emitter, China is a prominent case study for scenario analysis. This study uses two newly developed global top-down and bottom-up models with a regional China focus to compare China’s future energy and CO2 emission pathways toward 2050. By harmonizing the economic and demographic trends as well as a carbon tax pathway, we explore how both models respond to these identical exogenous inputs. Then a soft-linking methodology is applied to “narrow the gap” between the results computed by these models. We find for example that without soft-linking, China’s baseline CO2 emissions might range from 15–20Gt in 2050, while soft-linking models results in 17Gt. Reasons for the results gap between the models are discussed subsequently, such as model structure and statistical inputs. At a sectoral level, the gap can be mainly traced to China’s future coal use in electricity production. The study finds that it is beneficial to soft-link complex global models under harmonized assumptions. Although this study fails to “close the gap” between the two models completely, the experiences and insights shared here will be beneficial for researchers and policy makers that are drawing conclusions from the results of China and global scenario studies.
We conduct a multi-model comparison of a carbon tax policy in China to examine how different models simulate the impacts in both near-term 2020, medium-term 2030, and distant future 2050. Though ...Top-down computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have been applied frequently on climate or other environmental/energy policies to assess emission reduction, energy use and economy-wide general equilibrium outcomes in China, the results often vary greatly across models, making it challenging to derive policies. We compare 8 China CGE models with different characteristics to examine how they estimate the effects of a plausible range of carbon tax scenarios – low, medium and high carbon taxes.. To make them comparable we impose the same population growth, the same GDP growth path and world energy price shocks. We find that the 2030 NDC target for China are easily met in all models, but the 2060 carbon neutrality goal cannot be achieved even with our highest carbon tax rates. Through this carbon tax comparison, we find all 8 CGE models differ substantially in terms of impacts on the macroeconomy, aggregate prices, energy use and carbon reductions, as well as industry level output and price effects. We discuss the reasons for the divergent simulation results including differences in model structure, substitution parameters, baseline renewable penetration and methods of revenue recycling.
•A multi-model comparison of equilibrium impacts of carbon tax on emissions and economic growth in China.•All 8 CGE models differ substantially in terms of impacts on GDP, price, energy use and carbon reductions.•We relate these differences to model structure, substitution parameters and baseline renewable penetration.
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