This study examines important aspects of lottery behavior in India using data from December 2001 to March 2021. We experiment with a new measure of lottery along with well-established measures. Our ...lottery measure focusing on more recent information is found to be appropriate for India. MAX has a unique role in predicting returns that is not subsumed by other risk measures. We find MAX, skewness, tail risk, and idiosyncratic volatility as relevant characteristics of lottery stocks. Using these, we construct a lottery factor representing investors’ risk-seeking behavior. This behavior is an outcome of mis-weighing probability of extreme gains or losses and leads to overreaction to attention-catching events. We augment the Fama-French five-factor model with our lottery factor. Our six-factor behavioral asset pricing framework is found to be an appropriate performance benchmark. Lottery behavior is mainly the result of retail investor actions and is linked to several behavioral biases.
In this paper, we examine the dynamic nature of equity market integration for the South Asian countries. The daily data for local equity indices are used from 6 January 2004 to 31 March 2015. Copula ...GARCH models and Diebold and Yilmaz methodology have been employed to study the inter-temporal process of equity market integration. Empirical results show that the sample countries of the region exhibit very little or no levels of integration between them. Equity portfolio flows within the South Asian region reconfirms this trend for low integration in the region. Further, trend analysis of the fundamental determinants of financial integration for the SAARC countries was performed and the same was compared with its neighbouring regional economic bloc in Asia i.e. ASEAN + 6. It indicated that SAARC countries have to show sincere political commitment and require collaboration in efforts of policy realignment to work on their governance parameters, improve on their trade linkages and trade tariffs and develop their equity market infrastructure to achieve higher levels of financial integration. The paper contributes to the International Finance literature, especially dealing with regional economic blocs and has important implications for policy-makers, portfolio managers and academia.
This paper investigates the integration process within the European Economic and Monetary Union's retail banking industry by analyzing deposit and lending rates to nonfinancial corporations. The ...investigation covers the 2003~2014 period, examining the normal period, the global crisis period, and the European debt crisis period. The paper classifies sampled countries into three groups on the basis of their Gross Domestic Product to investigate the relationship between economic size and degree of integration. We employ five different indicators to assess various dimensions of integration: beta convergence, sigma convergence, variance ratio, asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation, and dynamic co-integration. The results point toward a weak degree of integration, which was worsened by the twin crises. In addition, results indicate that more heterogeneity exists in the credit market than in the deposits market. Furthermore, short-term maturity products are observed to be more converged than longer-term maturity products. We also observe a positive relationship between economic size of sampled countries and the degree of retail banking integration.
Time-Varying Bond Market Integration in EMU Gupta, Priyanshi; Sehgal, Sanjay; Deisting, Florent
Journal of economic integration,
12/2015, Letnik:
30, Številka:
4
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
We examine the level and progress of bond market integration amongst the eleven Economic and Monetary Union countries with active bond markets, over normal and crisis periods. The study covers data ...from January 2002 up to March 2014. We employ seven indicators for assessing integration, namely beta convergence, sigma convergence, variance ratio, Asymmetric Dynamic Conditional Correlation, dynamic co-integration, market synchronisation, and common factors approach. The results suggest that there is no heterogeneity in the integration process of large-sized economies and medium-sized economies, thereby restricting portfolio diversification potential. Further, bond market integration in the Economic and Monetary Union deteriorated during the crisis period, especially during the European debt crisis, with the economies of Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain being the worst affected. We observe that bond markets take a lead in information linkages vis-à-vis stock markets, and hence should get precedence in policy intervention relating to market integration, development, and crisis management.
This study examines the betting against beta (BAB) anomaly and its drivers for five major Asian markets, using data from January 1999 to January 2020. We find positive raw returns-based BAB premiums ...for India, China, and South Korea, while they are negative in Japan and Indonesia. Cross-sectional differences in BAB premiums seem to be positively associated with the level of information uncertainty and financial market development. Decomposition of the BAB phenomenon shows that BAB premiums are driven by betting against correlation (BAC) premiums in India while betting against volatility (BAV) premiums drive it in China and S.Korea. Funding liquidity risk and margin constraints drive positive BAC in India and Indonesia. Positive BAV in China is driven by MAX (lottery behavior), while idiosyncratic volatility (IVOL) and MAX together drive them in S.Korea. Negative BAB in Japan and Indonesia is mainly due to negative BAV premiums caused by MAX in Japan and both IVOL and MAX in Indonesia. CAPM-based risk-adjusted BAB premiums are not significant for S.Korea, Japan, and Indonesia, while in India and China, they are significant but get explained by the profitability factor. We conclude that the BAB strategy is not universally applicable, and its drivers vary across sample markets.
•The paper covers five major Asian markets and provides an evidence on betting against beta strategy and its key drivers.•It also addresses the issue if rational sources can explain BAB strategy-based profits.•Our findings provide new insights about the universal applicability of BAB anomaly.•The study fills an important research gap on BAB strategy for some of the most economically important markets of Asia.
PurposeThe main aim of the study is to identify some critical microeconomic determinants of financial distress and to design a parsimonious distress prediction model for an emerging economy like ...India. In doing so, the authors also attempt to compare the forecasting accuracy of alternative distress prediction techniques.Design/methodology/approachIn this study, the authors use two alternatives accounting information-based definitions of financial distress to construct a measure of financial distress. The authors then use the binomial logit model and two other popular machine learning–based models, namely artificial neural network and support vector machine, to compare the distress prediction accuracy rate of these alternative techniques for the Indian corporate sector.FindingsThe study’s empirical results suggest that five financial ratios, namely return on capital employed, cash flows to total liability, asset turnover ratio, fixed assets to total assets, debt to equity ratio and a measure of firm size (log total assets), play a highly significant role in distress prediction. The study’s findings suggest that machine learning-based models, namely support vector machine (SVM) and artificial neural network (ANN), are superior in terms of their prediction accuracy compared to the simple binomial logit model. Results also suggest that one-year-ahead forecasts are relatively better than the two-year-ahead forecasts.Practical implicationsThe findings of the study have some important practical implications for creditors, policymakers, regulators and other stakeholders. First, rather than monitoring and collecting information on a list of predictor variables, only six most important accounting ratios may be monitored to track the transition of a healthy firm into financial distress. Second, our six-factor model can be used to devise a sound early warning system for corporate financial distress. Three, machine learning–based distress prediction models have prediction accuracy superiority over the commonly used time series model in the available literature for distress prediction involving a binary dependent variable.Originality/valueThis study is one of the first comprehensive attempts to investigate and design a parsimonious distress prediction model for the emerging Indian economy which is currently facing high levels of corporate financial distress. Unlike the previous studies, the authors use two different accounting information-based measures of financial distress in order to identify an effective way of measuring financial distress. Some of the determinants of financial distress identified in this study are different from the popular distress prediction models used in the literature. Our distress prediction model can be useful for the other emerging markets for distress prediction.
In this paper, we examine the stock market integration process amongst 17 Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) countries from January 2002 to June 2013 over a normal period as well as for the Global ...Financial Crisis (GFC) and Eurozone Debt Crisis (EDC) periods. We classify the economies in three groups (A, B and C) based on their GDP to examine whether the economic size influences financial integration. Seven indicators are used for the purpose, namely, beta convergence, sigma convergence, variance ratio, asymmetric DCC, dynamic cointegration, market synchronisation measure and common components approach. The results suggest that large-sized EMU economies (termed as Group A) exhibit strong stock market integration. Moderate integration is observed for middle-sized EMU economies with old membership (termed as Group B). Small-sized economies (termed as Group C) economies seemed to be least integrated within the EMU stock market system. The findings further suggest presence of contagion effects as one moves from normal to crisis periods, which are specifically stronger for more integrated economies of Group A. We recommend institutional, regulatory and other policy reforms for Group B and especially Group C to achieve higher level of integration.
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