Knowing whether COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness wanes is crucial for informing vaccine policy, such as the need for and timing of booster doses. We aimed to systematically review the evidence for the ...duration of protection of COVID-19 vaccines against various clinical outcomes, and to assess changes in the rates of breakthrough infection caused by the delta variant with increasing time since vaccination.
This study was designed as a systematic review and meta-regression. We did a systematic review of preprint and peer-reviewed published article databases from June 17, 2021, to Dec 2, 2021. Randomised controlled trials of COVID-19 vaccine efficacy and observational studies of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness were eligible. Studies with vaccine efficacy or effectiveness estimates at discrete time intervals of people who had received full vaccination and that met predefined screening criteria underwent full-text review. We used random-effects meta-regression to estimate the average change in vaccine efficacy or effectiveness 1–6 months after full vaccination.
Of 13 744 studies screened, 310 underwent full-text review, and 18 studies were included (all studies were carried out before the omicron variant began to circulate widely). Risk of bias, established using the risk of bias 2 tool for randomised controlled trials or the risk of bias in non-randomised studies of interventions tool was low for three studies, moderate for eight studies, and serious for seven studies. We included 78 vaccine-specific vaccine efficacy or effectiveness evaluations (Pfizer–BioNTech-Comirnaty, n=38; Moderna-mRNA-1273, n=23; Janssen-Ad26.COV2.S, n=9; and AstraZeneca-Vaxzevria, n=8). On average, vaccine efficacy or effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection decreased from 1 month to 6 months after full vaccination by 21·0 percentage points (95% CI 13·9–29·8) among people of all ages and 20·7 percentage points (10·2–36·6) among older people (as defined by each study, who were at least 50 years old). For symptomatic COVID-19 disease, vaccine efficacy or effectiveness decreased by 24·9 percentage points (95% CI 13·4–41·6) in people of all ages and 32·0 percentage points (11·0–69·0) in older people. For severe COVID-19 disease, vaccine efficacy or effectiveness decreased by 10·0 percentage points (95% CI 6·1–15·4) in people of all ages and 9·5 percentage points (5·7–14·6) in older people. Most (81%) vaccine efficacy or effectiveness estimates against severe disease remained greater than 70% over time.
COVID-19 vaccine efficacy or effectiveness against severe disease remained high, although it did decrease somewhat by 6 months after full vaccination. By contrast, vaccine efficacy or effectiveness against infection and symptomatic disease decreased approximately 20–30 percentage points by 6 months. The decrease in vaccine efficacy or effectiveness is likely caused by, at least in part, waning immunity, although an effect of bias cannot be ruled out. Evaluating vaccine efficacy or effectiveness beyond 6 months will be crucial for updating COVID-19 vaccine policy.
Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations.
Pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) and Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) vaccine are now used in most countries. To monitor global and regional progress towards improving child health and to ...inform national policies for disease prevention and treatment, we prepared global, regional, and national disease burden estimates for these pathogens in children from 2000 to 2015.
Using WHO and Maternal and Child Epidemiology Estimation collaboration country-specific estimates of pneumonia and meningitis mortality and pneumonia morbidity from 2000 to 2015, we applied pneumococcal and Hib cause-specific proportions to estimate pathogen-specific deaths and cases. Summary estimates of the proportion of pneumonia deaths and cases attributable to these pathogens were derived from four Hib vaccine and six PCV efficacy and effectiveness study values. The proportion of meningitis deaths due to each pathogen was derived from bacterial meningitis aetiology and adjusted pathogen-specific meningitis case–fatality data. Pneumococcal and Hib meningitis cases were inferred from modelled pathogen-specific meningitis deaths and literature-derived case–fatality estimates. Cases of pneumococcal and Hib syndromes other than pneumonia and meningitis were estimated using the ratio of pathogen-specific non-pneumonia, non-meningitis cases to pathogen-specific meningitis cases from the literature. We accounted for annual HIV infection prevalence, access to care, and vaccine use.
We estimated that there were 294 000 pneumococcal deaths (uncertainty range UR 192 000–366 000) and 29 500 Hib deaths (18 400–40 700) in HIV-uninfected children aged 1–59 months in 2015. An additional 23 300 deaths (15 300–28 700) associated with pneumococcus and fewer than 1000 deaths associated Hib were estimated to have occurred in children infected with HIV. We estimate that pneumococcal deaths declined by 51% (7–74) and Hib deaths by 90% (78–96) from 2000 to 2015. Most children who died of pneumococcus (81%) and Hib (76%) presented with pneumonia. Less conservative assumptions result in pneumococcccal death estimates that could be as high as 515 000 deaths (302 000–609 000) in 2015. Approximately 50% of all pneumococcal deaths in 2015 occurred in four countries in Africa and Asia: India (68 700 deaths, UR 44 600–86 100), Nigeria (49 000 deaths, 32 400–59 000), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (14 500 deaths, 9300–18 700), and Pakistan (14 400 deaths, 9700–17 000). India (15 600 deaths, 9800–21 500), Nigeria (3600 deaths, 2200–5100), China (3400 deaths, 2300–4600), and South Sudan (1000 deaths, 600–1400) had the greatest number of Hib deaths in 2015. We estimated 3·7 million episodes (UR 2·7 million–4·3 million) of severe pneumococcus and 340 000 episodes (196 000–669 000) of severe Hib globally in children in 2015.
The widespread use of Hib vaccine and the recent introduction of PCV in countries with high child mortality is associated with reductions in Hib and pneumococcal cases and deaths. Uncertainties in the burden of pneumococcal disease are largely driven by the fraction of pneumonia deaths attributable to pneumococcus. Progress towards further reducing the global burden of Hib and pneumococcal disease burden will depend on the efforts of a few large countries in Africa and Asia.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Given our global interconnectedness, the COVID-19 pandemic highlights the urgency of building a global system that can support both routine and pandemic/epidemic adult immunization. As such, a ...framework to recommend vaccines and build robust platforms to deliver them to protect the rapidly expanding demographic of older adults is needed. Adult immunization as a strategy has the broad potential to preserve and improve medical, social, and economic outcomes, including maintaining functional ability that benefits older adults, their families, communities, and countries. While we will soon have multiple vaccines against COVID-19, we must recognize that we already have a variety of vaccines against other pathogens that can keep adults healthier. They can prevent simultaneous co-infection with COVID-19, and may favorably impact- the outcome of a COVID-19 illness. Further, administering a vaccine against COVID-19 requires planning now to determine delivery strategies impacting how older adults will be immunized in a timely manner. A group of international experts with various backgrounds from health and aging disciplines met to discuss the evidence case for adult immunization and crucial knowledge gaps that must be filled in order to implement effective policies and programs for older adult immunization. This group, coming together as the International Council on Adult Immunization (ICAI), outlined a high-level roadmap to catalyze action, provide policy guidance, and envision a global adult immunization platform that can be adapted by countries to fit their local contexts. Further meetings centered around the value of adult immunization, particularly in the context of COVID-19. There was agreement that programs to deliver existing influenza, pneumococcal, herpes zoster vaccines, and future COVID-19 vaccines to over a billion older adults who are at substantially higher risk of death and disability due to vaccine-preventable diseases are more urgent than ever before. Here we present a proposed framework for delivering routine and pandemic vaccines. We call upon the global community and governments to prioritize action for integrating robust adult immunization programs into the public health agenda.
Summary Background Streptococcus pneumoniae is a leading cause of bacterial pneumonia, meningitis, and sepsis in children worldwide. However, many countries lack national estimates of disease burden. ...Effective interventions are available, including pneumococcal conjugate vaccine and case management. To support local and global policy decisions on pneumococcal disease prevention and treatment, we estimated country-specific incidence of serious cases and deaths in children younger than 5 years. Methods We measured the burden of pneumococcal pneumonia by applying the proportion of pneumonia cases caused by S pneumoniae derived from efficacy estimates from vaccine trials to WHO country-specific estimates of all-cause pneumonia cases and deaths. We also estimated burden of meningitis and non-pneumonia, non-meningitis invasive disease using disease incidence and case-fatality data from a systematic literature review. When high-quality data were available from a country, these were used for national estimates. Otherwise, estimates were based on data from neighbouring countries with similar child mortality. Estimates were adjusted for HIV prevalence and access to care and, when applicable, use of vaccine against Haemophilus influenzae type b. Findings In 2000, about 14·5 million episodes of serious pneumococcal disease (uncertainty range 11·1–18·0 million) were estimated to occur. Pneumococcal disease caused about 826 000 deaths (582 000–926 000) in children aged 1–59 months, of which 91 000 (63 000–102 000) were in HIV-positive and 735 000 (519 000–825 000) in HIV-negative children. Of the deaths in HIV-negative children, over 61% (449 000 316 000–501 000) occurred in ten African and Asian countries. Interpretation S pneumoniae causes around 11% (8–12%) of all deaths in children aged 1–59 months (excluding pneumococcal deaths in HIV-positive children). Achievement of the UN Millennium Development Goal 4 for child mortality reduction can be accelerated by prevention and treatment of pneumococcal disease, especially in regions of the world with the greatest burden. Funding GAVI Alliance and the Vaccine Fund.
Emerging in November 2021, the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant of concern exhibited marked immune evasion resulting in reduced vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection and symptomatic disease. ...Most vaccine effectiveness data on Omicron are derived from the first Omicron subvariant, BA.1, which caused large waves of infection in many parts of the world within a short period of time. BA.1, however, was replaced by BA.2 within months, and later by BA.4 and BA.5 (BA.4/5). These later Omicron subvariants exhibited additional mutations in the spike protein of the virus, leading to speculation that they might result in even lower vaccine effectiveness. To address this question, the World Health Organization hosted a virtual meeting on December 6, 2022, to review available evidence for vaccine effectiveness against the major Omicron subvariants up to that date. Data were presented from South Africa, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Canada, as well as the results of a review and meta-regression of studies that evaluated the duration of the vaccine effectiveness for multiple Omicron subvariants. Despite heterogeneity of results and wide confidence intervals in some studies, the majority of studies showed vaccine effectiveness tended to be lower against BA.2 and especially against BA.4/5, compared to BA.1, with perhaps faster waning against severe disease caused by BA.4/5 after a booster dose. The interpretation of these results was discussed and both immunological factors (i.e., more immune escape with BA.4/5) and methodological issues (e.g., biases related to differences in the timing of subvariant circulation) were possible explanations for the findings. COVID-19 vaccines still provide some protection against infection and symptomatic disease from all Omicron subvariants for at least several months, with greater and more durable protection against severe disease.
Background: Faced with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the development of COVID-19 vaccines has been progressing at an unprecedented rate. This study aimed to evaluate the ...acceptance of COVID-19 vaccination in China and give suggestions for vaccination strategies and immunization programs accordingly. Methods: In March 2020, an anonymous cross-sectional survey was conducted online among Chinese adults. The questionnaire collected socio-demographic characteristics, risk perception, the impact of COVID-19, attitudes, acceptance and attribute preferences of vaccines against COVID-19 during the pandemic. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify the influencing factors of vaccination acceptance. Results: Of the 2058 participants surveyed, 1879 (91.3%) stated that they would accept COVID-19 vaccination after the vaccine becomes available, among whom 980 (52.2%) wanted to get vaccinated as soon as possible, while others (47.8%) would delay the vaccination until the vaccine’s safety was confirmed. Participants preferred a routine immunization schedule (49.4%) to emergency vaccination (9.0%) or either of them (41.6%). Logistic regression showed that being male, being married, perceiving a high risk of infection, being vaccinated against influenza in the past season, believing in the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccination or valuing doctor’s recommendations could increase the probability of accepting COVID-19 vaccination as soon as possible, while having confirmed or suspected cases in local areas, valuing vaccination convenience or vaccine price in decision-making could hinder participants from immediate vaccination. Conclusion: During the pandemic period, a strong demand for and high acceptance of COVID-19 vaccination has been shown among the Chinese population, while concerns about vaccine safety may hinder the promotion of vaccine uptake. To expand vaccination coverage, immunization programs should be designed to remove barriers in terms of vaccine price and vaccination convenience, and health education and communication from authoritative sources are important ways to alleviate public concerns about vaccine safety.
Summary Background Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) is a leading cause of childhood bacterial meningitis, pneumonia, and other serious infections. Hib disease can be almost completely eliminated ...through routine vaccination. We assessed the global burden of disease to help national policy makers and international donors set priorities. Methods We did a comprehensive literature search of studies of Hib disease incidence, case-fatality ratios, age distribution, syndrome distribution, and effect of Hib vaccine. We used vaccine trial data to estimate the proportion of pneumonia cases and pneumonia deaths caused by Hib. We applied these proportions to WHO country-specific estimates of pneumonia cases and deaths to estimate Hib pneumonia burden. We used data from surveillance studies to develop estimates of incidence and mortality of Hib meningitis and serious non-pneumonia, non-meningitis disease. If available, high-quality data were used for national estimates of Hib meningitis and non-pneumonia, non-meningitis disease burden. Otherwise, estimates were based on data from other countries matched as closely as possible for geographic region and child mortality. Estimates were adjusted for HIV prevalence and access to care. Disease burden was estimated for the year 2000 in children younger than 5 years. Findings We calculated that Hib caused about 8·13 million serious illnesses worldwide in 2000 (uncertainty range 7·33–13·2 million). We estimated that Hib caused 371 000 deaths (247 000–527 000) in children aged 1–59 months, of which 8100 (5600–10 000) were in HIV-positive and 363 000 (242 000–517 000) in HIV-negative children. Interpretation Global burden of Hib disease is substantial and almost entirely vaccine preventable. Expanded use of Hib vaccine could reduce childhood pneumonia and meningitis, and decrease child mortality. Funding Gavi Alliance and the Vaccine Fund.
•The mean willingness to pay for COVID-19 vaccination in China was CNY 254 (USD 36.8).•The public stated governments and health insurance needed to pay for the vaccination.•Family income, employee ...size and percpetion of the pandemic development affected WTP.
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant diseases and economic burdens in the world. Vaccines are often considered as a cost-effective way to prevent and control infectious diseases, and the research and development of COVID-19 vaccines have been progressing unprecedently. It is needed to understand individuals’ willingness to pay (WTP) among general population, which provides information about social demand, access and financing for future COVID-19 vaccination.
To investigate individuals’ WTP and financing mechanism preference for COVID-19 vaccination during the pandemic period in China.
During March 1–18, 2020, we conducted a network stratified random sampling survey with 2058 respondents in China. The survey questionnaires included out-of-pocket WTP, financing mechanism preference as well as basic characteristics of the respondents; risk perception and impact of the COVID-19 pandemic; attitude for future COVID-19 vaccination. Multivariable Tobit regression was used to determine impact factors for respondents’ out-of-pocket WTP.
The individuals’ mean WTP for full COVID-19 vaccination was CNY 254 (USD 36.8) with median of CNY 100 (USD 14.5). Most respondents believed that governments (90.9%) and health insurance (78.0%) needed to pay for some or full portions of COVID-19 vaccination, although 84.3% stated that individuals needed to pay. Annual family income, employee size in the workplace, and whether considering the COVID-19 pandemic in China in a declining trend affected respondents’ WTP significantly.
The findings demonstrated the individuals’ WTP for COVID-19 vaccination in China and their preferences for financing sources from individuals, governments and health insurance. And to suggest an effective and optimal financing strategy, the public health perspective with equal access to COVID-19 vaccination should be prioritized to ensure a high vaccination rate.
Limitations of our systematic review included potential biases in evaluating duration of vaccine effectiveness as described previously,1 scarce data for non-mRNA vaccines, and short follow-up after ...booster vaccination. Given the high prevalence of the omicron variant, omicron infection might have been incidental rather than causal among some hospitalised people, which would have resulted in underestimated vaccine effectiveness against severe disease.2 Vaccine effectiveness of primary series COVID-19 vaccines against severe disease when the omicron variant was predominant was lower than that observed pre-omicron but showed little decline after vaccination. MMH reports research grants from WHO, Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), Asian Development Bank (ADB), Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and Pfizer (all paid to the institution).
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