This report aims to provide methodological guidance to help practitioners select the most appropriate weighting method based on propensity scores for their analysis out of many available options (eg, ...inverse probability treatment weights, standardised mortality ratio weights, fine stratification weights, overlap weights, and matching weights), and outlines recommendations for transparent reporting of studies using weighting based on the propensity scores.
Recent results from 'ORAL Surveillance' trial have raised concerns regarding the cardiovascular safety of tofacitinib in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). We further examined this safety ...concern in the real-world setting.
We created two cohorts of patients with RA initiating treatment with tofacitinib or tumour necrosis factor inhibitors (TNFI) using deidentified data from Optum Clinformatics (2012-2020), IBM MarketScan (2012-2018) and Medicare (parts A, B and D, 2012-2017) claims databases: (1) A 'real-world evidence (RWE) cohort' consisting of routine care patients and (2) A 'randomised controlled trial (RCT)-duplicate cohort' mimicking inclusion and exclusion criteria of the ORAL surveillance trial to calibrate results against the trial findings. Cox proportional hazards models with propensity score fine stratification weighting were used to estimate HR and 95% CIs for composite outcome of myocardial infarction and stroke and accounting for 76 potential confounders. Database-specific effect estimates were pooled using fixed effects models with inverse-variance weighting.
In the RWE cohort, 102 263 patients were identified of whom 12 852 (12.6%) initiated tofacitinib. The pooled weighted HR (95% CI) comparing tofacitinib with TNFI was 1.01 (0.83 to 1.23) in RWE cohort and 1.24 (0.90 to 1.69) in RCT-duplicate cohort which aligned closely with ORAL-surveillance results (HR: 1.33, 95% CI 0.91 to 1.94).
We did not find evidence for an increased risk of cardiovascular outcomes with tofacitinib in patients with RA treated in the real-world setting; however, tofacitinib was associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular outcomes, although statistically non-significant, in patients with RA with cardiovascular risk factors.
NCT04772248.
Objective
To evaluate the risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients receiving tofacitinib versus those receiving tumor necrosis factor (TNF) inhibitors.
Methods
RA ...patients who were initiating treatment with tofacitinib or a TNF inhibitor and had not previously received any biologic agent or tofacitinib were identified from the Truven MarketScan database (2012–2016) or Medicare claims (parts A, B, and D) database (2012–2015). Patients were followed up until treatment discontinuation, treatment switch, insurance disenrollment, or administrative censoring. The outcome of VTE was identified using inpatient claims for pulmonary embolism or deep vein thrombosis. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were determined using a Cox proportional hazards model after accounting for confounding through propensity score–based fine‐stratification weighting. HRs were pooled across databases using the inverse variance meta‐analytic method.
Results
A total of 34,074 RA patients (mean age 50 years; 5.6% tofacitinib initiators) and 17,086 RA patients (mean age 71 years; 5.8% tofacitinib initiators) were identified from the Truven and Medicare databases, respectively. The crude incidence rates of VTE per 100 person‐years were 0.60 (95% CI 0.26–1.19) and 0.34 (95% CI 0.27–0.41) in Truven and 1.12 (95% CI 0.45–2.31) and 0.92 (95% CI 0.76–1.11) in Medicare for patients receiving tofacitinib and patients receiving TNF inhibitors, respectively. Propensity score–adjusted HRs showed no significant differences in the risk of VTE between tofacitinib‐treated and TNF inhibitor–treated patients in either database, with a pooled HR of 1.33 (95% CI 0.78–2.24).
Conclusion
Occurrence of VTE in a total of 50,865 RA patients initiating treatment with tofacitinib or a TNF inhibitor was infrequent (<1 per 100 person‐years). We observed a numerically higher, but statistically nonsignificant, risk of VTE in RA patients receiving tofacitinib versus those receiving TNF inhibitors.
To report the prevalence of prescription opioid use and evaluate the trends in a large cohort of Medicaid-enrolled pregnant women.
A cohort of pregnancies was identified using data from the Medicaid ...Analytical eXtract for the period of 2000-2007. Dispensing of opioids, as a class and separately for individual agents, was evaluated using claims from filled prescriptions. Variations in patterns of prescription opioid fills were examined by demographic characteristics, by geographic region, and over time. Median number of opioid prescriptions dispensed and cumulative days of availability for prescription opioids during pregnancy were reported.
The study population consisted of more than 1.1 million women with completed pregnancies from 46 U.S. states and Washington, DC. One of five women from our cohort (21.6%) filled a prescription for an opioid during pregnancy; this proportion increased from 18.5% in 2000 to 22.8% in 2007. Substantial regional variation was seen with the proportion of women who filled a prescription during pregnancy, ranging between 9.5% and 41.6% across the states. Codeine and hydrocodone were the most commonly prescribed opioids. Among women filling at least one opioid prescription, the median (interquartile range) number of prescriptions filled was 1 (1-2) and the median (interquartile range) cumulative days of opioid availability during pregnancy were 5 (3-13) days.
We observed high and increasing number of filled prescriptions for opioids during pregnancy among Medicaid-enrolled women. These findings call for further safety evaluations of these drugs and their effects on the developing fetus to inform clinical practice.
II.
There has been concern that exposure to lithium early in pregnancy may be associated with a marked increase in the risk of Ebstein's anomaly (a right ventricular outflow tract obstruction defect) in ...infants and overall congenital cardiac defects, but data are conflicting and limited.
We conducted a cohort study involving 1,325,563 pregnancies in women who were enrolled in Medicaid and who delivered a live-born infant between 2000 and 2010. We examined the risk of cardiac malformations among infants exposed to lithium during the first trimester as compared with unexposed infants and, in secondary analyses, with infants exposed to another commonly used mood stabilizer, lamotrigine. Risk ratios and 95% confidence intervals were estimated with control for psychiatric and medical conditions, medications, and other potential confounders.
Cardiac malformations were present in 16 of the 663 infants exposed to lithium (2.41%), 15,251 of the 1,322,955 nonexposed infants (1.15%), and 27 of the 1945 infants exposed to lamotrigine (1.39%). The adjusted risk ratio for cardiac malformations among infants exposed to lithium as compared with unexposed infants was 1.65 (95% confidence interval CI, 1.02 to 2.68). The risk ratio was 1.11 (95% CI, 0.46 to 2.64) for a daily dose of 600 mg or less, 1.60 (95% CI, 0.67 to 3.80) for 601 to 900 mg, and 3.22 (95% CI, 1.47 to 7.02) for more than 900 mg. The prevalence of right ventricular outflow tract obstruction defects was 0.60% among lithium-exposed infants versus 0.18% among unexposed infants (adjusted risk ratio, 2.66; 95% CI, 1.00 to 7.06). Results were similar when lamotrigine-exposed infants were used as the reference group.
Maternal use of lithium during the first trimester was associated with an increased risk of cardiac malformations, including Ebstein's anomaly; the magnitude of this effect was smaller than had been previously postulated. (Funded by the National Institute of Mental Health.).
The association between selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) antidepressant use during pregnancy and risk of persistent pulmonary hypertension of the newborn (PPHN) has been controversial ...since the US Food and Drug Administration issued a public health advisory in 2006.
To examine the risk of PPHN associated with exposure to different antidepressant medication classes late in pregnancy.
Cohort study nested in the 2000-2010 Medicaid Analytic eXtract for 46 US states and Washington, DC. Last follow-up date was December 31, 2010.
A total of 3,789,330 pregnant women enrolled in Medicaid from 2 months or fewer after the date of last menstrual period through at least 1 month after delivery. The source cohort was restricted to women with a depression diagnosis and logistic regression analysis with propensity score adjustment applied to control for potential confounders. EXPOSURES FOR OBSERVATIONAL STUDIES: SSRI and non-SSRI monotherapy use during the 90 days before delivery vs no use.
Recorded diagnosis of PPHN during the first 30 days after delivery.
A total of 128,950 women (3.4%) filled at least 1 prescription for antidepressants late in pregnancy: 102,179 (2.7%) used an SSRI and 26,771 (0.7%) a non-SSRI. Overall, 7630 infants not exposed to antidepressants were diagnosed with PPHN (20.8; 95% CI, 20.4-21.3 per 10,000 births) compared with 322 infants exposed to SSRIs (31.5; 95% CI, 28.3-35.2 per 10,000 births), and 78 infants exposed to non-SSRIs (29.1; 95% CI, 23.3-36.4 per 10,000 births). Associations between antidepressant use and PPHN were attenuated with increasing levels of confounding adjustment. For SSRIs, odds ratios were 1.51 (95% CI, 1.35-1.69) unadjusted and 1.10 (95% CI, 0.94-1.29) after restricting to women with depression and adjusting for the high-dimensional propensity score. For non-SSRIs, the odds ratios were 1.40 (95% CI, 1.12-1.75) and 1.02 (95% CI, 0.77-1.35), respectively. Upon restriction of the outcome to primary PPHN, the adjusted odds ratio for SSRIs was 1.28 (95% CI, 1.01-1.64) and for non-SSRIs 1.14 (95% CI, 0.74-1.74).
Evidence from this large study of publicly insured pregnant women may be consistent with a potential increased risk of PPHN associated with maternal use of SSRIs in late pregnancy. However, the absolute risk was small, and the risk increase appears more modest than suggested in previous studies.
The frequency of antipsychotic (AP) use during pregnancy has approximately doubled during the last decade. However, little is known about their safety for the developing fetus, and concerns have been ...raised about a potential association with congenital malformations.
To examine the risk for congenital malformations overall and cardiac malformations associated with first-trimester exposure to APs.
This nationwide sample of 1 360 101 pregnant women enrolled in Medicaid with a live-born infant constituted the pregnancy cohort nested in the Medicaid Analytic Extract database, which included data from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2010. Participants were enrolled in Medicaid from 3 months before their last menstrual period through at least 1 month after delivery. Relative risks (RRs) were estimated using generalized linear models with fine stratification on the propensity score to control for the underlying psychiatric disorders and other potential confounders. Data were analyzed during 2015.
Use of APs during the first trimester, the etiologically relevant period for organogenesis.
Major congenital malformations overall and cardiac malformations identified during the first 90 days after delivery.
Of the 1 341 715 pregnancies that met inclusion criteria (mean SD age of women, 24.02 5.77 years), 9258 (0.69%) filled at least 1 prescription for an atypical AP and 733 (0.05%) filled at least 1 prescription for a typical AP during the first trimester. Overall, 32.7 (95% CI, 32.4-33.0) per 1000 births not exposed to APs were diagnosed with congenital malformations compared with 44.5 (95% CI, 40.5-48.9) per 1000 births exposed to atypical and 38.2 (95% CI, 26.6-54.7) per 1000 births exposed to typical APs. Unadjusted analyses suggested an increased risk for malformations overall for atypical APs (RR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.24-1.50) but not for typical APs (RR, 1.17; 95% CI, 0.81-1.68). After confounding adjustment, the RR was reduced to 1.05 (95% CI, 0.96-1.16) for atypical APs and 0.90 (95% CI, 0.62-1.31) for typical APs. The findings for cardiac malformations were similar. For the individual agents examined, a small increased risk in overall malformations (RR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.02-1.56) and cardiac malformations (RR, 1.26; 95% CI, 0.88-1.81) was found for risperidone that was independent of measured confounders.
Evidence from this large study suggests that use of APs early in pregnancy generally does not meaningfully increase the risk for congenital malformations overall or cardiac malformations in particular. The small increase in the risk for malformations observed with risperidone requires additional study.
Gout patients have a high burden of co-morbid conditions including diabetes mellitus (DM), chronic kidney disease (CKD), and cardiovascular disease (CVD). We sought to evaluate the association ...between changes in serum uric acid (SUA) levels over time and the risk of incident DM, CVD, and renal function decline in gout patients.
An observational cohort study was conducted among enrollees of private health insurance programs in the US between 2004 and 2015. Gout patients were included on the index date of a SUA measurement ≥6.8 mg/dl. The exposure of interest was cumulative change in SUA levels from baseline. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for incident DM, incident CVD, and renal function decline (≥30% reduction in glomerular filtration rate) were derived using marginal structural models with stabilized inverse probability weights accounting for baseline confounders (age, gender, co-morbidities, co-medications) and time-varying confounders (serum creatinine, blood urea nitrogen, glycated hemoglobin).
Among 26,341 patients with gout, the average age was 62, 75% were men, and the median baseline SUA was 8.6 mg/dl (interquartile range 7.7 to 9.5). The incidence rates/100 person-years (95% CI) were 1.63 (1.51-1.75) for DM, 0.77 (0.70-0.84) for CVD, and 4.32 (4.14-4.49) for renal function decline. The adjusted HR (95% CI) per 3 mg/dl reduction in SUA, corresponding on average to achieving the target level of <6 mg/dl in this population, was 1.04 (0.92-1.17) for DM, 1.07 (0.89-1.29) for CVD, and 0.85 (0.78-0.92) for renal function decline.
Reduction in SUA in patients with gout may be associated with a reduced risk of renal function decline, but not with DM or CVD.
The risk of serious infections associated with vedolizumab in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is uncertain. We assessed the risk of serious infections associated with use of ...vedolizumab versus anti-TNF in patients with IBD, according to IBD subtype and previous exposure to anti-TNF.
Based on two U.S. nationwide commercial insurance databases and the French nationwide health insurance database, anti-TNF naïve and experienced patients diagnosed with Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) aged 18 years or older who initiated vedolizumab or an anti-TNF agent after 2010 were identified. Hazard ratios for serious infections comparing vedolizumab and anti-TNF were estimated in propensity score matched cohorts.
Among 8768 vedolizumab and 26,656 anti-TNF initiators included after 1:4 variable ratio propensity score matching, 893 serious infections occurred during 37,725 person-years of follow-up. The risk of serious infections was not different between vedolizumab and anti-TNF in the overall IBD cohort (HR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0·79-1.13), while the risk was decreased for vedolizumab users in patients with UC (HR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.50-0.93), but not CD (HR, 1.10; 95% CI, 0.87-1.38). In patients with UC, vedolizumab was consistently associated with lower risk of serious infections after exclusion of gastrointestinal infections (HR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.39-0.90).
While the risk of serious infections associated with vedolizumab was not different compared to anti-TNF in the overall group of patients with IBD, the risk varied according to IBD subtype, by decreasing in patients with UC, but not CD. These findings may help to clarify the optimal position of vedolizumab in the therapeutic management of IBD.
Regulators are evaluating the use of noninterventional real-world evidence (RWE) studies to assess the effectiveness of medical products. The RCT DUPLICATE initiative (Randomized, Controlled Trials ...Duplicated Using Prospective Longitudinal Insurance Claims: Applying Techniques of Epidemiology) uses a structured process to design RWE studies emulating randomized, controlled trials (RCTs) and compare results. We report findings of the first 10 trial emulations, evaluating cardiovascular outcomes of antidiabetic or antiplatelet medications.
We selected 3 active-controlled and 7 placebo-controlled RCTs for replication. Using patient-level claims data from US commercial and Medicare payers, we implemented inclusion and exclusion criteria, selected primary end points, and comparator populations to emulate those of each corresponding RCT. Within the trial-mimicking populations, we conducted propensity score matching to control for >120 preexposure confounders. All study measures were prospectively defined and protocols registered before hazard ratios and 95% CIs were computed. Success criteria for the primary analysis were prespecified for each replication.
Despite attempts to emulate RCT design as closely as possible, differences between the RCT and corresponding RWE study populations remained. The regulatory conclusions were equivalent in 6 of 10. The RWE emulations achieved a hazard ratio estimate that was within the 95% CI from the corresponding RCT in 8 of 10 studies. In 9 of 10, either the regulatory or estimate agreement success criteria were fulfilled. The largest differences in effect estimates were found for RCTs where second-generation sulfonylureas were used as a proxy for placebo regarding cardiovascular effects. Nine of 10 replications had a standardized difference between effect estimates of <2, which suggests differences within expected random variation.
Agreement between RCT and RWE findings varies depending on which agreement metric is used. Interim findings indicate that selection of active comparator therapies with similar indications and use patterns enhances the validity of RWE. Even in the context of active comparators, concordance between RCT and RWE findings is not guaranteed, partially because trials are not emulated exactly. More trial emulations are needed to understand how often and in what contexts RWE findings match RCTs. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifiers: NCT03936049, NCT04215523, NCT04215536, NCT03936010, NCT03936036, NCT03936062, NCT03936023, NCT03648424, NCT04237935, NCT04237922.
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