Abstract Objectives A P -value <0.05 is one metric used to evaluate the results of a randomized controlled trial (RCT). We wondered how often statistically significant results in RCTs may be lost ...with small changes in the numbers of outcomes. Study Design and Setting A review of RCTs in high-impact medical journals that reported a statistically significant result for at least one dichotomous or time-to-event outcome in the abstract. In the group with the smallest number of events, we changed the status of patients without an event to an event until the P -value exceeded 0.05. We labeled this number the Fragility Index; smaller numbers indicated a more fragile result. Results The 399 eligible trials had a median sample size of 682 patients (range: 15–112,604) and a median of 112 events (range: 8–5,142); 53% reported a P -value <0.01. The median Fragility Index was 8 (range: 0–109); 25% had a Fragility Index of 3 or less. In 53% of trials, the Fragility Index was less than the number of patients lost to follow-up. Conclusion The statistically significant results of many RCTs hinge on small numbers of events. The Fragility Index complements the P -value and helps identify less robust results.
Abstract
Myocardial injury after non-cardiac surgery (MINS) is due to myocardial ischaemia (i.e. supply-demand mismatch or thrombus) and is associated with an increased risk of mortality and major ...vascular complications at 30 days and up to 2 years after non-cardiac surgery. The diagnostic criteria for MINS includes an elevated post-operative troponin measurement judged as resulting from myocardial ischaemia (i.e. no evidence of a non-ischaemic aetiology), during or within 30 days after non-cardiac surgery, and without the requirement of an ischaemic feature (e.g. ischaemic symptom, ischaemic electrocardiography finding). For patients with MINS who are not at high risk of bleeding, physicians should consider initiating dabigatran 110 mg twice daily and low-dose aspirin. Physicians should also consider initiating statin therapy in patients with MINS. Most MINS patients should only be referred to cardiac catheterization if they demonstrate recurrent instability (e.g. cardiac ischaemia, heart failure). Patients ≥65 years of age or with known atherosclerotic disease should have troponin measurements on days 1, 2, and 3 after surgery while the patient is in hospital to avoid missing >90% of MINS and the opportunity to initiate secondary prophylactic measures and follow-up.
Accurate information regarding prognosis is fundamental to optimal clinical care. The best approach to assess patient prognosis relies on prediction models that simultaneously consider a number of ...prognostic factors and provide an estimate of patients' absolute risk of an event. Such prediction models should be characterized by adequately discriminating between patients who will have an event and those who will not and by adequate calibration ensuring accurate prediction of absolute risk. This Users' Guide will help clinicians understand the available metrics for assessing discrimination, calibration, and the relative performance of different prediction models. This article complements existing Users' Guides that address the development and validation of prediction models. Together, these guides will help clinicians to make optimal use of existing prediction models.
The nature of the pseudogap phase of cuprate high-temperature superconductors is a major unsolved problem in condensed matter physics. We studied the commencement of the pseudogap state at ...temperature T* using three different techniques (angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy, polar Kerr effect, and time-resolved reflectivity) on the same optimally doped Bi2201 crystals. We observed the coincident, abrupt onset at T* of a particle-hole asymmetric antinodal gap in the electronic spectrum, a Kerr rotation in the reflected light polarization, and a change in the ultrafast relaxational dynamics, consistent with a phase transition. Upon further cooling, spectroscopic signatures of superconductivity begin to grow close to the superconducting transition temperature (T c ), entangled in an energy-momentum—dependent manner with the preexisting pseudogap features, ushering in a ground state with coexisting orders.
Patients receiving anti-platelet agents for secondary cardiovascular prevention frequently require non-cardiac surgery. A substantial proportion of these patients have their anti-platelet drug ...discontinued before operation; however, there is uncertainty about the impact of this practice. The aim of this study was to compare the effect of maintenance or interruption of aspirin before surgery, in terms of major thrombotic and bleeding events.
Patients treated with anti-platelet agents for secondary prevention and undergoing intermediate- or high-risk non-cardiac surgery were included in this multicentre, randomized, placebo-controlled, trial. We substituted non-aspirin anti-platelets with aspirin (75 mg daily) or placebo starting 10 days before surgery. The primary outcome was a composite score evaluating both major thrombotic and bleeding adverse events occurring within the first 30 postoperative days weighted by their severity (weights were established a priori using a Delphi consensus process). Analyses followed the intention-to-treat principle.
We randomized 291 patients (n=145, aspirin group, and n=146, placebo group). The most frequent surgical procedures were orthopaedic surgery (52.2%), abdominal surgery (20.6%), and urologic surgery (15.5%). No significant difference was observed neither in the primary outcome score mean values (sd)=0.67 (2.05) in the aspirin group vs 0.65 (2.04) in the placebo group, P=0.94 nor at day 30 in the number of major complications between groups.
In these at-risk patients undergoing elective non-cardiac surgery, we did not find any difference in terms of occurrence of major thrombotic or bleeding events between preoperative maintenance or interruption of aspirin. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier. NCT00190307.
Each year, millions of patients worldwide have a perioperative myocardial infarction (MI) after noncardiac surgery.
To examine the characteristics and short-term outcome of perioperative MI.
Cohort ...study. (ClinicalTrials.gov registration number: NCT00182039)
190 centers in 23 countries.
8351 patients included in the POISE (PeriOperative ISchemic Evaluation) trial.
Four cardiac biomarker or enzyme assays were measured within 3 days of surgery. The definition of perioperative MI included either autopsy findings of acute MI or an elevated level of a cardiac biomarker or enzyme and at least 1 of the following defining features: ischemic symptoms, development of pathologic Q waves, ischemic changes on electrocardiography, coronary artery intervention, or cardiac imaging evidence of MI.
Within 30 days of random assignment, 415 patients (5.0%) had a perioperative MI. Most MIs (74.1%) occurred within 48 hours of surgery; 65.3% of patients did not experience ischemic symptoms. The 30-day mortality rate was 11.6% (48 of 415 patients) among patients who had a perioperative MI and 2.2% (178 of 7936 patients) among those who did not (P < 0.001). Among patients with a perioperative MI, mortality rates were elevated and similar between those with (9.7%; adjusted odds ratio, 4.76 95% CI, 2.68 to 8.43) and without (12.5%; adjusted odds ratio, 4.00 CI, 2.65 to 6.06) ischemic symptoms.
Cardiac markers were measured only until day 3 after surgery, and additional asymptomatic MIs may have been missed.
Most patients with a perioperative MI will not experience ischemic symptoms. Data suggest that routine monitoring of troponin levels in at-risk patients is needed after surgery to detect most MIs, which have an equally poor prognosis regardless of whether they are symptomatic or asymptomatic.
Abstract GRADE suggests that examination of 95% confidence intervals (CIs) provides the optimal primary approach to decisions regarding imprecision. For practice guidelines, rating down the quality ...of evidence (i.e., confidence in estimates of effect) is required if clinical action would differ if the upper versus the lower boundary of the CI represented the truth. An exception to this rule occurs when an effect is large, and consideration of CIs alone suggests a robust effect, but the total sample size is not large and the number of events is small. Under these circumstances, one should consider rating down for imprecision. To inform this decision, one can calculate the number of patients required for an adequately powered individual trial (termed the “optimal information size” OIS). For continuous variables, we suggest a similar process, initially considering the upper and lower limits of the CI, and subsequently calculating an OIS. Systematic reviews require a somewhat different approach. If the 95% CI excludes a relative risk (RR) of 1.0, and the total number of events or patients exceeds the OIS criterion, precision is adequate. If the 95% CI includes appreciable benefit or harm (we suggest an RR of under 0.75 or over 1.25 as a rough guide) rating down for imprecision may be appropriate even if OIS criteria are met.
The relative benefits and risks of performing coronary-artery bypass grafting (CABG) with a beating-heart technique (off-pump CABG), as compared with cardiopulmonary bypass (on-pump CABG), are not ...clearly established.
At 79 centers in 19 countries, we randomly assigned 4752 patients in whom CABG was planned to undergo the procedure off-pump or on-pump. The first coprimary outcome was a composite of death, nonfatal stroke, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or new renal failure requiring dialysis at 30 days after randomization.
There was no significant difference in the rate of the primary composite outcome between off-pump and on-pump CABG (9.8% vs. 10.3%; hazard ratio for the off-pump group, 0.95; 95% confidence interval CI, 0.79 to 1.14; P=0.59) or in any of its individual components. The use of off-pump CABG, as compared with on-pump CABG, significantly reduced the rates of blood-product transfusion (50.7% vs. 63.3%; relative risk, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.75 to 0.85; P<0.001), reoperation for perioperative bleeding (1.4% vs. 2.4%; relative risk, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.40 to 0.93; P=0.02), acute kidney injury (28.0% vs. 32.1%; relative risk, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.80 to 0.96; P=0.01), and respiratory complications (5.9% vs. 7.5%; relative risk, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.63 to 0.98; P=0.03) but increased the rate of early repeat revascularizations (0.7% vs. 0.2%; hazard ratio, 4.01; 95% CI, 1.34 to 12.0; P=0.01).
There was no significant difference between off-pump and on-pump CABG with respect to the 30-day rate of death, myocardial infarction, stroke, or renal failure requiring dialysis. The use of off-pump CABG resulted in reduced rates of transfusion, reoperation for perioperative bleeding, respiratory complications, and acute kidney injury but also resulted in an increased risk of early revascularization. (Funded by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research; CORONARY ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00463294.).
Guidelines exist for the surgical treatment of hip fracture, but the effect of early surgery on mortality and other outcomes that are important for patients remains unclear. We conducted a systematic ...review and meta-analysis to determine the effect of early surgery on the risk of death and common postoperative complications among elderly patients with hip fracture.
We searched electronic databases (including MEDLINE and EMBASE), the archives of meetings of orthopedic associations and the bibliographies of relevant articles and questioned experts to identify prospective studies, published in any language, that evaluated the effects of early surgery in patients undergoing procedures for hip fracture. Two reviewers independently assessed methodologic quality and extracted relevant data. We pooled data by means of the DerSimonian and Laird random-effects model, which is based on the inverse variance method.
We identified 1939 citations, of which 16 observational studies met our inclusion criteria. These studies had a total of 13 478 patients for whom mortality data were complete (1764 total deaths). Based on the five studies that reported adjusted risk of death (4208 patients, 721 deaths), irrespective of the cut-off for delay (24, 48 or 72 hours), earlier surgery (i.e., within the cut-off time) was associated with a significant reduction in mortality (relative risk RR 0.81, 95% confidence interval CI 0.68-0.96, p = 0.01). Unadjusted data indicated that earlier surgery also reduced in-hospital pneumonia (RR 0.59, 95% CI 0.37-0.93, p = 0.02) and pressure sores (RR 0.48, 95% CI 0.34-0.69, p < 0.001).
Earlier surgery was associated with a lower risk of death and lower rates of postoperative pneumonia and pressure sores among elderly patients with hip fracture. These results suggest that reducing delays may reduce mortality and complications.
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