VP Advantage Devine, Christopher
2016, 2016., 20160101, 2016-01-01
eBook
A widespread perception exists among political commentators, campaign operatives and presidential candidates that vice presidential (VP) running mates can deliver their home state's electoral votes ...in a presidential election. In recent elections, presidential campaigns have even changed their strategy in response to the perceived VP home state advantage. But is the advantage real? And could it decide a presidential election? In the most comprehensive analysis to date, Devine and Kopko demonstrate that the VP home state advantage is actually highly conditional and rarely decisive in the Electoral College. However, it could change the outcome of a presidential election under narrow but plausible conditions. Sophisticated in its methodology and rich in historical as well as contemporary insight, The VP Advantage is essential and accessible reading for anyone interested in understanding how running mates influence presidential elections.
OBJECT Although the length of hospital stay is often used as a measure of quality of care, data evaluating the predictors of extended hospital stay after craniotomy for tumor are limited. The goals ...of this study were to use multivariate regression to examine which preoperative characteristics and postoperative complications predict a prolonged hospital stay and to assess the impact of length of stay on unplanned hospital readmission. METHODS Data were extracted from the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) database from 2007 to 2013. Patients who underwent craniotomy for resection of a brain tumor were included. Stratification was based on length of hospital stay, which was dichotomized by the upper quartile of the interquartile range (IQR) for the entire population. Covariates included patient age, sex, race, tumor histology, comorbidities, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) class, functional status, preoperative laboratory values, preoperative neurological deficits, operative time, and postoperative complications. Multivariate logistic regression with forward prediction was used to evaluate independent predictors of extended hospitalization. Thereafter, hierarchical multivariate logistic regression assessed the impact of length of stay on unplanned readmission. RESULTS The study included 11,510 patients. The median hospital stay was 4 days (IQR 3-8 days), and 27.7% (n = 3185) had a hospital stay of at least 8 days. Independent predictors of extended hospital stay included age greater than 70 years (OR 1.53, 95% CI 1.28%-1.83%, p < 0.001); African American (OR 1.75, 95% CI 1.44%-2.14%, p < 0.001) and Hispanic (OR 1.68, 95% CI 1.36%-2.08%) race or ethnicity; ASA class 3 (OR 1.52, 95% CI 1.34%-1.73%) or 4-5 (OR 2.18, 95% CI 1.82%-2.62%) designation; partially (OR 1.94, 95% CI 1.61%-2.35%) or totally dependent (OR 3.30, 95% CI 1.95%-5.55%) functional status; insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (OR 1.46, 95% CI 1.16%-1.84%); hematological comorbidities (OR 1.68, 95% CI 1.25%-2.24%); and preoperative hypoalbuminemia (OR 1.78, 95% CI 1.51%-2.09%, all p ≤ 0.009). Several postoperative complications were additional independent predictors of prolonged hospitalization including pulmonary emboli (OR 13.75, 95% CI 4.73%-39.99%), pneumonia (OR 5.40, 95% CI 2.89%-10.07%), and urinary tract infections (OR 11.87, 95% CI 7.09%-19.87%, all p < 0.001). The C-statistic of the model based on preoperative characteristics was 0.79, which increased to 0.83 after the addition of postoperative complications. A length of stay after craniotomy for tumor score was created based on preoperative factors significant in regression models, with a moderate correlation with length of stay (p = 0.43, p < 0.001). Extended hospital stay was not associated with differential odds of an unplanned hospital readmission (OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.89%-1.06%, p = 0.55). CONCLUSIONS In this NSQIP analysis that evaluated patients who underwent craniotomy for tumor, much of the variance in hospital stay was attributable to baseline patient characteristics, suggesting length of stay may be an imperfect proxy for quality. Additionally, longer hospitalizations were not found to be associated with differential rates of unplanned readmission.
Hillary Clinton’s failure to visit the key battleground state of Wisconsin in 2016 has become a popular metaphor for the alleged strategic inadequacies of her presidential campaign. Critics who cite ...this fact, however, make two important assumptions: that campaign visits are effective, in general, and that they were effective for Clinton in 2016. I test these assumptions using an original database of presidential and vice presidential campaign visits in 2016. Specifically, I regress party vote share on each candidate’s number of campaign visits, at the county level, first for all counties located within battleground states, and then for counties located within each of six key battleground states: Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. The results of this analysis do not clearly support either of the assumptions made by Clinton’s critics. In general, none of the presidential or vice presidential candidates – including Clinton – significantly influenced voting via campaign visits. However, Clinton is one of only two candidates – along with Mike Pence, in Ohio – whose campaign visits had a significant effect on voting in an individual state. Specifically, Clinton’s visits to Pennsylvania improved the Democratic ticket’s performance in that state by 1.2 percentage points. Also, there is weak evidence to suggest that Clinton might have had a similar effect on voting in Michigan. It is unclear from this evidence whether Clinton also would have gained votes, or even won, in Wisconsin had she campaigned in that state. But two conclusions are clear. First, Clinton’s visits to Democratic-leaning battleground states did not have the “backfiring” effect that her campaign reportedly feared. Second, Donald Trump did not win in Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin as a direct result of his campaign visits to those decisive states.
This article examines the contours of "the public's morality(ies)", either as an aggregate of individuals' public hopes and fears or (in the plural) as particular mixes of hopes and fears stemming ...from individual (or coalitional) moral convictions. Our theoretical understanding of one aggregate "public morality" relies upon Derek Edyvane's presentation of a civic virtue premised upon an austerity whereby citizens value a collective sense of protection as highly as the realization of their individual public aspirations. We scrutinize Edyvane's theoretical construct in reference to a collection of citizen letters responding to Gerald Ford's 1974 pardon of Richard Nixon made available by the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library. These letters illustrate a conceptual typology of public morality that reflects various combinations of the public hopes and fears Edyvane delineates; this typology accommodates most of the available letters. Psychological studies pertaining to prosocial behavior, individual moral convictions, and conspiracy beliefs are reviewed to understand sectarian fears that animate current political discourse. In this regard, we offer examples of political utterances appearing to fall outside Edyvane's treatment of public fears. A final discussion considers how citizen fears arising from disparate moral convictions affect administrative decision-making. It also directs attention to behavioral public administration that offers a micro-level perspective on individual behavior that impacts governance.
Ideology's crucial theoretical and empirical role in explaining political behavior makes it imperative that scholars understand how individuals conceptualize and apply ideological labels. The ...existing literature on this topic is quite limited, however, because it relies almost exclusively upon data from the 1970s and 1980s, and it does not examine how psychological factors influence conceptualizations of ideological labels. This article uses data from two original laboratory experiments to test the relative impact of four major policy dimensions on participants' evaluations of candidate ideology and to test authoritarianism's role in shaping ideological conceptualization. These analyses indicate that individuals most often define liberalism and conservatism primarily in terms of social policies closely associated with religious values, each of which invert traditional ideological orientations toward the appropriate size and role of government. The causal mechanism shaping this relationship is authoritarianism, because, I argue, the religious social policy dimension most clearly evokes the deep-seated value conflicts associated with an authoritarian view of political conflict.
This article discusses a collaborative effort between political science faculty members and a research librarian, designed to determine whether structured library interventions with students over the ...course of a semester yield improvement in students' information literacy skills. Using the ACRL Framework for Information Literacy for Higher Education as the basis for an information literacy pre- and post-test, faculty conducted a two-wave survey of students enrolled in political science courses, taken at the beginning and end of a semester, while the librarian taught an information literacy session with select political science courses. We then compared the survey results to measure information literacy gains of all students. The results reinforce findings from other studies that collaborating with a research librarian contributes positively to student learning, and the methodology used to evaluate information literacy gains here can be used to provide additional assessment in the future.
Brainstem necrosis is a rare, but dreaded complication of radiation therapy; however, data on the incidence of brainstem injury for tumors involving the posterior fossa in photon-treated patient ...cohorts are still needed.
Clinical characteristics and dosimetric parameters were recorded for 107 pediatric patients who received photon radiation for posterior fossa tumors without brainstem involvement from 2000 to 2016. Patients were excluded if they received a prescription dose <50.4 Gy, a brainstem maximum dose <50.4 Gy, or had fewer than 2 magnetic resonance imaging scans within 18 months after radiation. Post-radiation therapy magnetic resonance imaging findings were recorded, and brainstem toxicity was graded using National Cancer Institute Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events, version 5.
The most common histologies were medulloblastoma (61.7%) and ependymoma (15.9%), and median age at diagnosis was 8.3 years (range, 0.8-20.7). Sixty-seven patients (62.6%) received craniospinal irradiation (median, 23.4 Gy; range, 18.0-39.6) as a component of their radiation therapy, and 39.3% and 40.2% of patients received an additional involved field or whole posterior fossa boost, respectively. Median prescribed dose was 55.8 Gy (range, 50.4-60.0). Median clinical and imaging follow-up were 4.7 years (range, 0.1-17.5) and 4.2 years (range, 0.1-17.3), respectively. No grade ≥2 toxicities were observed. The incidence of grade 1 brainstem necrosis was 1.9% (2 of 107). These patients were by definition asymptomatic and experienced resolution of imaging abnormality after 5.3 months and 2.1 years, respectively.
Risk of brainstem necrosis was minimal in this multi-institutional study of pediatric patients treated with photon radiation therapy for tumors involving the posterior fossa with no cases of symptomatic brainstem injury, suggesting that brainstem injury risk is minimal in patients treated with photon therapy.
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