The prevalence of diabetes, heart disease, and stroke multimorbidity (co-occurrence of two or three of these conditions) has increased rapidly. Little is known about how the three conditions progress ...from one to another sequentially through the life course. We aimed to delineate this progression in middle-aged women and to determine the roles of common risk factors in the accumulation of diabetes, heart disease, and stroke multimorbidity.
We used data from 13,714 women aged 45-50 years without a history of any of the three conditions. They were participants in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health (ALSWH), enrolled in 1996, and surveyed approximately every 3 years to 2016. We characterized the longitudinal progression of the three conditions and multimorbidity. We estimated the accumulation of multimorbidity over 20 years of follow-up and investigated their association with both baseline and time-varying predictors (sociodemographic factors, lifestyle factors, and other chronic conditions). Over 20 years, 2,511 (18.3%) of the women progressed to at least one condition, of whom 1,420 (56.6%) had diabetes, 1,277 (50.9%) had heart disease, and 308 (12.3%) had stroke; 423 (16.8%) had two or three of these conditions. Over a 3-year period, the age-adjusted odds of two or more conditions was approximately twice that of developing one new condition compared to women who did not develop any new conditions. For example, the odds for developing one new condition between Surveys 7 and 8 were 2.29 (95% confidence interval CI, 1.93-2.72), whereas the odds for developing two or more conditions was 6.51 (95% CI, 3.95-10.75). The onset of stroke was more strongly associated with the progression to the other conditions (i.e., 23.4% 95% CI, 16.3%-32.2% of women after first onset of stroke progressed to other conditions, whereas the percentages for diabetes and heart disease were 9.9% 95% CI, 7.9%-12.4% and 11.4% 95% CI, 9.1%-14.4%, respectively). Being separated, divorced, or widowed; being born outside Australia; having difficulty managing on their available income; being overweight or obese; having hypertension; being physically inactive; being a current smoker; and having prior chronic conditions (i.e., mental disorders, asthma, cancer, osteoporosis, and arthritis) were significantly associated with increased odds of accumulation of diabetes, heart disease, and stroke multimorbidity. The main limitations of this study were the use of self-reported data and the low number of events.
Stroke was associated with increased risk of progression to diabetes or heart disease. Social inequality, obesity, hypertension, physical inactivity, smoking, or having other chronic conditions were also significantly associated with increased odds of accumulating multimorbidity. Our findings highlight the importance of awareness of the role of diabetes, heart disease, and stroke multimorbidity among middle-aged women for clinicians and health-promotion agencies.
In 1996 the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health recruited a nationally representative sample of more than 40,000 women in three age cohorts, born in 1973-78, 1946-51 and 1921-26. At least ...six waves of 3-yearly surveys have been completed. Although the focus remains on factors affecting the health and well-being of women and their access to and use of health services across urban, rural and remote areas of Australia, the study has now been considerably expanded by linkage to other health data sets. For most women who have ever participated in the study, linked records are now available for: government-subsidized non-hospital services (e.g. all general practitioner visits); pharmaceutical prescriptions filled; national death index, including codes for multiple causes of death; aged care assessments and services; cancer registries; and, for most states and territories, hospital admissions and perinatal data. Additionally, a large cohort of women born in 1989-95 have been recruited. The data are available to approved collaborators, with more than 780 researchers using the data so far. Full details of the study materials and data access procedures are available at http://www.alswh.org.au/.
Abstract
STUDY QUESTION
How does the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) vary with type and age of menopause?
SUMMARY ANSWER
Earlier surgical menopause (e.g. <45 years) poses additional increased ...risk of incident CVD events, compared to women with natural menopause at the same age, and HRT use reduced the risk of CVD in women with early surgical menopause.
WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY
Earlier age at menopause has been linked to an increased risk of CVD mortality and all-cause mortality, but the extent that this risk of CVD varies by type of menopause and the role of postmenopausal HRT use in reducing this risk is unclear.
STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION
Pooled individual-level data of 203 767 postmenopausal women from 10 observational studies that contribute to the International collaboration for a Life course Approach to reproductive health and Chronic disease Events (InterLACE) consortium were included in the analysis.
PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS
Postmenopausal women who had reported menopause (type and age of menopause) and information on non-fatal CVD events were included. Type of menopause (natural menopause and surgical menopause) and age at menopause (categorised as <35, 35–39, 40–44, 45–49, 50–54 and ≥55 years) were exposures of interest. Natural menopause was defined as absence of menstruation over a period of 12 months (no hysterectomy and/or oophorectomy) and surgical menopause as removal of both ovaries. The study outcome was the first non-fatal CVD (defined as either incident coronary heart disease (CHD) or stroke) event ascertained from hospital medical records or self-reported. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CI for non-fatal CVD events associated with natural menopause and surgical menopause.
MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE
Compared with natural menopause, surgical menopause was associated with over 20% higher risk of CVD (HR 1.22, 95% CI 1.16–1.28). After the stratified analysis by age at menopause, a graded relationship for incident CVD was observed with lower age at menopause in both types of natural and surgical menopause. There was also a significant interaction between type of menopause and age at menopause (P < 0.001). Compared with natural menopause at 50–54 years, women with surgical menopause before 35 (2.55, 2.22–2.94) and 35–39 years (1.91, 1.71–2.14) had higher risk of CVD than those with natural menopause (1.59, 1.23–2.05 and 1.51, 1.33–1.72, respectively). Women who experienced surgical menopause at earlier age (<50 years) and took HRT had lower risk of incident CHD than those who were not users of HRT.
LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION
Self-reported data on type and age of menopause, no information on indication for the surgery (e.g. endometriosis and fibroids) and the exclusion of fatal CVD events may bias our results.
WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS
In clinical practice, women who experienced natural menopause or had surgical menopause at an earlier age need close monitoring and engagement for preventive health measures and early diagnosis of CVD. Our findings also suggested that timing of menopause should be considered as an important factor in risk assessment of CVD for women. The findings on CVD lend some support to the position that elective bilateral oophorectomy (surgical menopause) at hysterectomy for benign diseases should be discouraged based on an increased risk of CVD.
STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)
InterLACE project is funded by the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council project grant (APP1027196). GDM is supported by Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Principal Research Fellowship (APP1121844). There are no competing interests.
Abstract
STUDY QUESTION
Are parity and the timing of menarche associated with premature and early natural menopause?
SUMMARY ANSWER
Early menarche (≤11 years) is a risk factor for both premature ...menopause (final menstrual period, FMP <40 years) and early menopause (FMP 40–44 years), a risk that is amplified for nulliparous women.
WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY
Women with either premature or early menopause face an increased risk of chronic conditions in later life and of early death. Findings from some studies suggest that early menarche and nulliparity are associated with early menopause, however overall the evidence is mixed. Much of the evidence for a direct relationship is hampered by a lack of comparability across studies, failure to adjust for confounding factors and inadequate statistical power.
STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION
This pooled study comprises 51 450 postmenopausal women from nine observational studies in the UK, Scandinavia, Australia and Japan that contribute to the International collaboration for a Life course Approach to reproductive health and Chronic disease Events (InterLACE).
PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS
Age at menarche (categorized as ≤11, 12, 13, 14 and 15 or more years) and parity (categorized as no children, one child and two or more children) were exposures of interest. Age at FMP was confirmed by at least 12 months of cessation of menses where this was not the result of an intervention (such as surgical menopause due to bilateral oophorectomy or hysterectomy) and categorized as premature menopause (FMP before age 40), early menopause (FMP 40–44 years), 45–49 years, 50–51 years, 52–53 years and 54 or more years. We used multivariate multinomial logistic regression models to estimate relative risk ratio (RRR) and 95% CI for associations between menarche, parity and age at FMP adjusting for within-study correlation.
MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE
The median age at FMP was 50 years (interquartile range 48–53 years), with 2% of the women experiencing premature menopause and 7.6% early menopause. Women with early menarche (≤11 years, compared with 12–13 years) were at higher risk of premature menopause (RRR 1.80, 95% CI 1.53–2.12) and early menopause (1.31, 1.19–1.44). Nulliparity was associated with increased risk of premature menopause (2.26, 1.84–2.77) and early menopause (1.32, 1.09–1.59). Women having early menarche and nulliparity were at over 5-fold increased risk of premature menopause (5.64, 4.04–7.87) and 2-fold increased risk of early menopause (2.16, 1.48–3.15) compared with women who had menarche at ≥12 years and two or more children.
LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION
Most of the studies (except the birth cohorts) relied on retrospectively reported age at menarche, which may have led to some degree of recall bias.
WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS
Our findings support early monitoring of women with early menarche, especially those who have no children, for preventive health interventions aimed at mitigating the risk of adverse health outcomes associated with early menopause.
STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)
InterLACE project is funded by the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council project grant (APP1027196). G.D.M. is supported by Australian Research Council Future Fellowship (FT120100812). There are no competing interests.
Current evidence on the association between body mass index (BMI) and age at menopause remains unclear. We investigated the relationship between BMI and age at menopause using data from 11 ...prospective studies. A total of 24,196 women who experienced menopause after recruitment was included. Baseline BMI was categorised according to the WHO criteria. Age at menopause, confirmed by natural cessation of menses for ≥ 12 months, was categorised as < 45 years (early menopause), 45-49, 50-51 (reference category), 52-53, 54-55, and ≥ 56 years (late age at menopause). We used multinomial logistic regression models to estimate multi variable relative risk ratios (RRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the associations between BMI and age at menopause. The mean (standard deviation) age at menopause was 51.4 (3.3) years, with 2.5% of the women having early and 8.1% late menopause. Compared with those with normal BMI (18.5-24.9 kg/m²), underweight women were at a higher risk of early menopause (RRR 2.15, 95% CI 1.50-3.06), while overweight (1.52, 1.31-1.77) and obese women (1.54, 1.18-2.01) were at increased risk of late menopause. Overweight and obesity were also significantly associated with around 20% increased risk of menopause at ages 52-53 and 54-55 years. We observed no association between underweight and late menopause. The risk of early menopause was higher among obese women albeit not significant (1.23, 0.89-1.71). Underweight women had over twice the risk of experiencing early menopause, while overweight and obese women had over 50% higher risk of experiencing late menopause.
To examine the associations of infertility, recurrent miscarriage, and stillbirth with the risk of first non-fatal and fatal stroke, further stratified by stroke subtypes.
Individual participant ...pooled analysis of eight prospective cohort studies.
Cohort studies across seven countries (Australia, China, Japan, Netherlands, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States) participating in the InterLACE (International Collaboration for a Life Course Approach to Reproductive Health and Chronic Disease Events) consortium, which was established in June 2012.
618 851 women aged 32.0-73.0 years at baseline with data on infertility, miscarriage, or stillbirth, at least one outcome event (non-fatal or fatal stroke), and information on covariates were included; 93 119 women were excluded. Of the participants, 275 863 had data on non-fatal and fatal stroke, 54 716 only had data on non-fatal stroke, and 288 272 only had data on fatal stroke.
Non-fatal strokes were identified through self-reported questionnaires, linked hospital data, or national patient registers. Fatal strokes were identified through death registry data.
The median follow-up for non-fatal stroke and fatal stroke was 13.0 years (interquartile range 12.0-14.0) and 9.4 years (7.6-13.0), respectively. A first non-fatal stroke was experienced by 9265 (2.8%) women and 4003 (0.7%) experienced a fatal stroke. Hazard ratios for non-fatal or fatal stroke were stratified by hypertension and adjusted for race or ethnicity, body mass index, smoking status, education level, and study. Infertility was associated with an increased risk of non-fatal stroke (hazard ratio 1.14, 95% confidence interval 1.08 to 1.20). Recurrent miscarriage (at least three) was associated with higher risk of non-fatal and fatal stroke (1.35, 1.27 to 1.44, and 1.82, 1.58 to 2.10, respectively). Women with stillbirth were at 31% higher risk of non-fatal stroke (1.31, 1.10 to 1.57) and women with recurrent stillbirth were at 26% higher risk of fatal stroke (1.26, 1.15 to 1.39). The increased risk of stroke (non-fatal or fatal) associated with infertility or recurrent stillbirths was mainly driven by a single stroke subtype (non-fatal ischaemic stroke and fatal haemorrhagic stroke), while the increased risk of stroke (non-fatal or fatal) associated with recurrent miscarriages was driven by both subtypes.
A history of recurrent miscarriages and death or loss of a baby before or during birth could be considered a female specific risk factor for stroke, with differences in risk according to stroke subtypes. These findings could contribute to improved monitoring and stroke prevention for women with such a history.
Little is known about patterns of associative multimorbidity and their aetiology. We aimed to identify patterns of associative multimorbidity among mid-aged women and the lifestyle and socioeconomic ...factors associated with their development.
Participants were from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. We included 4896 women born 1946-51, without multimorbidity in 1998. We identified multimorbidity patterns at survey 6 (2010) using factor analysis, and related these patterns to baseline lifestyle and socioeconomic factors using logistic regression. We dichotomised factor scores and determined odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between characteristics and odds of a high versus low factor score.
We identified five multimorbidity patterns: psychosomatic; musculoskeletal; cardiometabolic; cancer; and respiratory. Overweight and obesity were respectively associated with increased odds of having a high score for the musculoskeletal (adjusted ORs 1.45 95% CI 1.23, 1.70 and 2.14 95% CI 1.75, 2.60) and cardiometabolic (adjusted ORs 1.53 95% CI 1.31, 1.79 and 2.46 95% CI 2.02, 2.98) patterns. Physical inactivity was associated with increased odds of a high score for the psychosomatic, musculoskeletal and cancer patterns (adjusted ORs 1.41 95% CI 1.13, 1.76; 1.39 95% CI 1.11, 1.74; and 1.35 95% CI 1.08, 1.69). Smoking was associated with increased odds of a high score for the respiratory pattern. Education and ability to manage on income were associated with increased odds of a high score for the psychosomatic pattern (adjusted ORs 1.34 95% CI 1.03, 1.75 and 1.73 95% CI 1.37, 1.28, respectively) and musculoskeletal pattern (adjusted ORs 1.43 95% CI 1.10, 1.87 and 1.38 1.09, 1.75, respectively).
Distinct multimorbidity patterns can be identified among mid-aged women. Social inequality, physical activity and BMI are risk factors common to multiple patterns and are appropriate targets for reducing the risk of specific multimorbidity groups in mid-life women.
Early menopause is linked to an increased risk of cardiovascular disease mortality; however, the association between early menopause and incidence and timing of cardiovascular disease is unclear. We ...aimed to assess the associations between age at natural menopause and incidence and timing of cardiovascular disease.
We harmonised and pooled individual-level data from 15 observational studies done across five countries and regions (Australia, Scandinavia, the USA, Japan, and the UK) between 1946 and 2013. Women who had reported their menopause status, age at natural menopause (if postmenopausal), and cardiovascular disease status (including coronary heart disease and stroke) were included. We excluded women who had hysterectomy or oophorectomy and women who did not report their age at menopause. The primary endpoint of this study was the occurrence of first non-fatal cardiovascular disease, defined as a composite outcome of incident coronary heart disease (including heart attack and angina) or stroke (including ischaemic stroke or haemorrhagic stroke). We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate multivariate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for the associations between age at menopause and incident cardiovascular disease event. We also adjusted the model to account for smoking status, menopausal hormone therapy status, body-mass index, and education levels. Age at natural menopause was categorised as premenopausal or perimenopausal, younger than 40 years (premature menopause), 40–44 years (early menopause), 45–49 years (relatively early), 50–51 years (reference category), 52–54 years (relatively late), and 55 years or older (late menopause).
Overall, 301 438 women were included in our analysis. Of these 301 438 women, 12 962 (4·3%) had a first non-fatal cardiovascular disease event after menopause, of whom 9369 (3·1%) had coronary heart disease and 4338 (1·4%) had strokes. Compared with women who had menopause at age 50–51 years, the risk of cardiovascular disease was higher in women who had premature menopause (age <40 years; HR 1·55, 95% CI 1·38–1·73; p<0·0001), early menopause (age 40–44 years; 1·30, 1·22–1·39; p<0·0001), and relatively early menopause (age 45–49 years; 1·12, 1·07–1·18; p<0·0001), with a significantly reduced risk of cardiovascular disease following menopause after age 51 years (p<0·0001 for trend). The associations persisted in never smokers, and were strongest before age 60 years for women with premature menopause (HR 1·88, 1·62–2·20; p<0·0001) and early menopause (1·40, 1·27–1·54; p<0·0001), but were attenuated at age 60–69 years, with no significant association observed at age 70 years and older.
Compared with women who had menopause at age 50–51 years, women with premature and early menopause had a substantially increased risk of a non-fatal cardiovascular disease event before the age of 60 years, but not after age 70 years. Women with earlier menopause need close monitoring in clinical practice, and age at menopause might also be considered as an important factor in risk stratification of cardiovascular disease for women.
Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.
Obtaining population-level estimates of the incidence and prevalence of dementia is challenging due to under-diagnosis and under-reporting. We investigated the feasibility of using multiple linked ...datasets and capture-recapture techniques to estimate rates of dementia among women in Australia.
This work is based on the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. A random sample of 12,432 women born in 1921-1926 was recruited in 1996. Over 16 years of follow-up records of dementia were obtained from five sources: three-yearly self-reported surveys; clinical assessments for aged care assistance; death certificates; pharmaceutical prescriptions filled; and, in three Australian States only, hospital in-patient records.
A total of 2534 women had a record of dementia in at least one of the data sources. The aged care assessments included dementia records for 79.3% of these women, while pharmaceutical data included 34.6%, death certificates 31.0% and survey data 18.5%. In the States where hospital data were available this source included dementia records for 55.8% of the women. Using capture-recapture methods we estimated an additional 728 women with dementia had not been identified, increasing the 16 year prevalence for the cohort from 20.4 to 26.0% (95% confidence interval CI 25.2, 26.8%).
This study demonstrates that using routinely collected health data with record linkage and capture-recapture can produce plausible estimates for dementia prevalence and incidence at a population level.
PDF
