Ocean ecosystems are increasingly stressed by human-induced changes of their physical, chemical and biological environment. Among these changes, warming, acidification, deoxygenation and changes in ...primary productivity by marine phytoplankton can be considered as four of the major stressors of open ocean ecosystems. Due to rising atmospheric CO2 in the coming decades, these changes will be amplified. Here, we use the most recent simulations performed in the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 to assess how these stressors may evolve over the course of the 21st century. The 10 Earth system models used here project similar trends in ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation and reduced primary productivity for each of the IPCC's representative concentration pathways (RCPs) over the 21st century. For the "business-as-usual" scenario RCP8.5, the model-mean changes in the 2090s (compared to the 1990s) for sea surface temperature, sea surface pH, global O2 content and integrated primary productivity amount to +2.73 (±0.72) °C, −0.33 (±0.003) pH unit, −3.45 (±0.44)% and −8.6 (±7.9)%, respectively. For the high mitigation scenario RCP2.6, corresponding changes are +0.71 (±0.45) °C, −0.07 (±0.001) pH unit, −1.81 (±0.31)% and −2.0 (±4.1)%, respectively, illustrating the effectiveness of extreme mitigation strategies. Although these stressors operate globally, they display distinct regional patterns and thus do not change coincidentally. Large decreases in O2 and in pH are simulated in global ocean intermediate and mode waters, whereas large reductions in primary production are simulated in the tropics and in the North Atlantic. Although temperature and pH projections are robust across models, the same does not hold for projections of subsurface O2 concentrations in the tropics and global and regional changes in net primary productivity. These high uncertainties in projections of primary productivity and subsurface oxygen prompt us to continue inter-model comparisons to understand these model differences, while calling for caution when using the CMIP5 models to force regional impact models.
•Analyse the direct impact of corruption on economics growth using a very large sample of countries and find it to be negative.•Analyse how corruption can also interact with other forms of government ...spending to influence growth.•Find important complementarities between military spending and corruption that compound their negative impact on growth.•Find that combating corruption will have not only positive direct effects but also important indirect effects.
There is considerable debate over the effects of both corruption and government spending on growth, but few studies have considered how the interaction between them might affect economic growth. This paper provides a contribution to the debate, starting wiGth an endogenous growth model and extending it to account for the effects of corruption on components of government spending, namely military and investment spending. It then illustrates the non-negligible indirect effects of corruption on military spending and government investment expenditure using model simulations. The resulting model is then estimated on a comprehensive panel of 106 countries and the results show that the interactions between corruption and investment and corruption and military spending have strong negative impacts on economic growth. The results also indicate important complementarities between corruption and military spending, suggesting that combating corruption will not only have direct positive effects, but is also likely to have positive indirect effects, through reducing the size of the negative impact of the military burden. They are also found to be robust across different measures of corruption, levels of economic development and groupings of countries. This suggests that policies to reduce corruption, combined with those to reduce military burdens, such as regional security agreements, would have a considerable impact on economic growth.
CONTEXT: The urban heat island (UHI) is a well-documented pattern of warming in cities relative to rural areas. Most UHI research utilizes remote sensing methods at large scales, or climate sensors ...in single cities surrounded by standardized land cover. Relatively few studies have explored continental-scale climatic patterns within common urban microenvironments such as residential landscapes that may affect human comfort. OBJECTIVES: We tested the urban homogenization hypothesis which states that structure and function in cities exhibit ecological “sameness” across diverse regions relative to the native ecosystems they replaced. METHODS: We deployed portable micrometeorological sensors to compare air temperature and humidity in residential yards and native landscapes across six U.S. cities that span a range of climates (Phoenix, AZ; Los Angeles, CA; Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN; Boston, MA; Baltimore, MD; and Miami, FL). RESULTS: Microclimate in residential ecosystems was more similar among cities than among native ecosystems, particularly during the calm morning hours. Maximum regional actual evapotranspiration (AET) was related to the morning residential microclimate effect. Residential yards in cities with maximum AET <50–65 cm/year (Phoenix and Los Angeles) were generally cooler and more humid than nearby native shrublands during summer mornings, while yards in cities above this threshold were generally warmer (Baltimore and Miami) and drier (Miami) than native forests. On average, temperature and absolute humidity were ~6 % less variable among residential ecosystems than among native ecosystems from diverse regions. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that common residential land cover and structural characteristics lead to microclimatic convergence across diverse regions at the continental scale.
We describe the baseline coupled model configuration and simulation characteristics of GFDL's Earth System Model Version 4.1 (ESM4.1), which builds on component and coupled model developments at GFDL ...over 2013–2018 for coupled carbon‐chemistry‐climate simulation contributing to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. In contrast with GFDL's CM4.0 development effort that focuses on ocean resolution for physical climate, ESM4.1 focuses on comprehensiveness of Earth system interactions. ESM4.1 features doubled horizontal resolution of both atmosphere (2° to 1°) and ocean (1° to 0.5°) relative to GFDL's previous‐generation coupled ESM2‐carbon and CM3‐chemistry models. ESM4.1 brings together key representational advances in CM4.0 dynamics and physics along with those in aerosols and their precursor emissions, land ecosystem vegetation and canopy competition, and multiday fire; ocean ecological and biogeochemical interactions, comprehensive land‐atmosphere‐ocean cycling of CO2, dust and iron, and interactive ocean‐atmosphere nitrogen cycling are described in detail across this volume of JAMES and presented here in terms of the overall coupling and resulting fidelity. ESM4.1 provides much improved fidelity in CO2 and chemistry over ESM2 and CM3, captures most of CM4.0's baseline simulations characteristics, and notably improves on CM4.0 in (1) Southern Ocean mode and intermediate water ventilation, (2) Southern Ocean aerosols, and (3) reduced spurious ocean heat uptake. ESM4.1 has reduced transient and equilibrium climate sensitivity compared to CM4.0. Fidelity concerns include (1) moderate degradation in sea surface temperature biases, (2) degradation in aerosols in some regions, and (3) strong centennial scale climate modulation by Southern Ocean convection.
Plain Language Summary
GFDL has developed a coupled chemistry‐carbon‐climate Earth System Model (ESM4.1) as part of its fourth‐generation coupled model development activities with model results contributed publicly to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. With similar computational expense as GFDL's first coupled model CM4.0, ESM4.1 focuses on chemistry and ecosystem comprehensiveness rather than the ocean resolution‐focus of CM4.0. With fidelity near to that of CM4.0, ESM4.1 features much improved representation of climate mean patterns and variability from previous GFDL ESMs as well as comprehensive couplings for chemistry, carbon, and dust.
Key Points
A new coupled chemistry‐carbon‐climate Earth system model has been developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
This model unifies component advances in chemistry, carbon, and ecosystem comprehensiveness within a single coupled climate framework
This model features much improved climate mean patterns and variability from previous chemistry and carbon coupled models
In the large literature on military spending and growth, the heterogeneity of the categories of expenditure is seldom considered. Military spending is used to pay for a variety of things, including ...salaries, large weapon systems, and physical infrastructure, along with ongoing operations, training, and readiness - each of which might be expected to have different implications for economic growth. One reason for the focus on aggregate spending is the lack of disaggregated cross-country data, but there are some data available from NATO and the EU that break military spending into personnel, equipment, infrastructure and other expenditures (primarily operations and maintenance). This paper uses these data, available for 34 countries, for as many as 49 years, to investigate whether the composition of military budgets affects economic growth. Estimating standard growth models with this data it finds that as expected there is considerable heterogeneity in the effects of the different components. Specifically, the negative correlation between military spending and growth found in recent studies is primarily driven by personnel expenditures, and - slightly less clearly - by operating expenditures.
A considerable proportion of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) entering pulmonary rehabilitation (PR) report psychological distress, which is often accompanied by poor ...physical health status. Mindfulness-based cognitive therapy (MBCT) has been shown to improve psychological and physical outcomes in other chronic diseases. We therefore evaluated the efficacy of MBCT as an add-on to a standard PR programme in COPD.COPD patients eligible for PR were cluster randomised to receive either an 8-week, group-based MBCT programme as an add-on to an 8-week PR programme (n=39), or PR alone (n=45). The primary outcomes of psychological distress and physical health status impairment were measured with the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) and the COPD Assessment Test (CAT) before randomisation (T1), mid- (T2) and post-intervention (T3), and at 3 (T4) and 6 (T5) months' follow-up .A statistically significant time×arm effect was found for the HADS (Cohen's
=0.62, 95% CIs (
)=0.18-1.06, p=0.010). The treatment effect on the CAT failed to reach statistical significance (
=0.42, 95% CIs (
)=-0.06-0.90, p=0.061).MBCT showed a statistically significant and durable effect on psychological distress, indicating that MBCT may be an efficacious add-on to standard PR programmes in COPD.
We describe the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's CM4.0 physical climate model, with emphasis on those aspects that may be of particular importance to users of this model and its simulations. ...The model is built with the AM4.0/LM4.0 atmosphere/land model and OM4.0 ocean model. Topics include the rationale for key choices made in the model formulation, the stability as well as drift of the preindustrial control simulation, and comparison of key aspects of the historical simulations with observations from recent decades. Notable achievements include the relatively small biases in seasonal spatial patterns of top‐of‐atmosphere fluxes, surface temperature, and precipitation; reduced double Intertropical Convergence Zone bias; dramatically improved representation of ocean boundary currents; a high‐quality simulation of climatological Arctic sea ice extent and its recent decline; and excellent simulation of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation spectrum and structure. Areas of concern include inadequate deep convection in the Nordic Seas; an inaccurate Antarctic sea ice simulation; precipitation and wind composites still affected by the equatorial cold tongue bias; muted variability in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation; strong 100 year quasiperiodicity in Southern Ocean ventilation; and a lack of historical warming before 1990 and too rapid warming thereafter due to high climate sensitivity and strong aerosol forcing, in contrast to the observational record. Overall, CM4.0 scores very well in its fidelity against observations compared to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 generation in terms of both mean state and modes of variability and should prove a valuable new addition for analysis across a broad array of applications.
Plain Language Summary
The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration participates along with a number of model centers around the world in constructing state‐of‐the‐art climate models for use in studies for climate change and prediction. GFDL's latest multipurpose atmosphere‐ocean coupled climate model, CM4.0, is described here. It consists of GFDL's latest atmosphere and land models at about 100 km horizontal resolution and ocean and sea ice models at roughly 25 km horizontal resolution. A handful of standard experiments have been conducted with CM4.0 for participation in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, an archive of climate model results utilized by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the climate research community more generally. The model results have been extensively evaluated against observations. This paper makes the case that CM4.0 ranks high among state‐of‐the‐art coupled climate models by many measures of bias in the simulated climatology and in its ability to capture modes of climate variability such as the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation and Madden‐Julian Oscillation. The paper also discusses some potential weaknesses, including unrealistically large internal variability in the Southern Ocean and insufficient warming before 1990 in the simulation of the twentieth century.
Key Points
A team at GFDL has developed a new model of the physical climate system referred to as CM4.0
Strengths of model include ENSO simulation and small biases in TOA fluxes, precipitation, Arctic sea ice extent, and sea surface temperature
Problematic aspects include large variability in Southern Ocean and historical simulation with little warming prior to 1990
Movement is fundamental to human and animal life, emerging through interaction of complex neural, muscular, and skeletal systems. Study of movement draws from and contributes to diverse fields, ...including biology, neuroscience, mechanics, and robotics. OpenSim unites methods from these fields to create fast and accurate simulations of movement, enabling two fundamental tasks. First, the software can calculate variables that are difficult to measure experimentally, such as the forces generated by muscles and the stretch and recoil of tendons during movement. Second, OpenSim can predict novel movements from models of motor control, such as kinematic adaptations of human gait during loaded or inclined walking. Changes in musculoskeletal dynamics following surgery or due to human-device interaction can also be simulated; these simulations have played a vital role in several applications, including the design of implantable mechanical devices to improve human grasping in individuals with paralysis. OpenSim is an extensible and user-friendly software package built on decades of knowledge about computational modeling and simulation of biomechanical systems. OpenSim's design enables computational scientists to create new state-of-the-art software tools and empowers others to use these tools in research and clinical applications. OpenSim supports a large and growing community of biomechanics and rehabilitation researchers, facilitating exchange of models and simulations for reproducing and extending discoveries. Examples, tutorials, documentation, and an active user forum support this community. The OpenSim software is covered by the Apache License 2.0, which permits its use for any purpose including both nonprofit and commercial applications. The source code is freely and anonymously accessible on GitHub, where the community is welcomed to make contributions. Platform-specific installers of OpenSim include a GUI and are available on simtk.org.
Key message
Contamination at the FAD2B locus due to inadequate screening protocols is the primary cause of sporadic, insufficient oleic acid content in Virginia-type peanut.
The high oleic trait in ...peanut is conditioned by loss-of-function mutations in a pair of homeologous enzymes and is well known to improve the shelf life of peanut products. As such, the trait is given high priority in current and future cultivars by the North Carolina State University peanut breeding program. For unknown reasons, high oleic cultivars and breeding lines intermittently failed to meet self-imposed thresholds for oleic acid content in internal testing. To determine why, a manual seed chipper, crude DNA isolation protocol, genotyping assays for both mutations, and a web-based SNP calling application were developed. The primary cause was determined to be contamination with normal oleic seeds resulting from inadequate screening protocols. In order to correct the problem, a faster screening method was acquired to accommodate a higher oleic acid threshold. Additionally, results showed the mutation in one homeolog is fixed in the program, dig date had no significant effect on oleic acid content, and minor modifiers segregating within the program explained 6% of the variation in oleic acid content.
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