Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) play a key role in stratospheric ozone loss and are strong infrared absorbers that contribute to global warming. The stratospheric lifetimes of CFCs are a measure of their ...stratospheric loss rates that are needed to determine global warming and ozone depletion potentials. We applied the tracer–tracer correlation approach to zonal mean climatologies from satellite measurements and model data to assess the lifetimes of CFCl3 (CFC-11) and CF2Cl2 (CFC-12). We present estimates of the CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio and the absolute lifetime of CFC-12, based on a reference lifetime of 52 years for CFC-11. We analyzed climatologies from three satellite missions, the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment-Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS), the HIgh Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HIRDLS), and the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS). We found a CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio of 0.47±0.08 and a CFC-12 lifetime of 112(96–133) years for ACE-FTS, a ratio of 0.46±0.07 and a lifetime of 113(97–134) years for HIRDLS, and a ratio of 0.46±0.08 and a lifetime of 114(98–136) years for MIPAS. The error-weighted, combined CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio is 0.46±0.04 and the CFC-12 lifetime estimate is 113(103–124) years. These results agree with the recent Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) reassessment, which recommends lifetimes of 52(43–67) years and 102(88–122) years, respectively. Having smaller uncertainties than the results from other recent studies, our estimates can help to better constrain CFC-11 and CFC-12 lifetime recommendations in future scientific studies and assessments. Furthermore, the satellite observations were used to validate first simulation results from a new coupled model system, which integrates a Lagrangian chemistry transport model into a climate model. For the coupled model we found a CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio of 0.48±0.07 and a CFC-12 lifetime of 110(95–129) years, based on a 10-year perpetual run. Closely reproducing the satellite observations, the new model system will likely become a useful tool to assess the impact of advective transport, mixing, and photochemistry as well as climatological variability on the stratospheric lifetimes of long-lived tracers.
Methyl chloride (CH3Cl) is a chlorine-containing trace gas in the atmosphere contributing significantly to stratospheric ozone depletion. Large uncertainties in estimates of its source and sink ...magnitudes and temporal and spatial variations currently exist. GEIA inventories and other bottom-up emission estimates are used to construct a priori maps of the surface fluxes of CH3Cl. The Model of Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry (MATCH), driven by NCEP interannually varying meteorological data, is then used to simulate CH3Cl mole fractions and quantify the time series of sensitivities of the mole fractions at each measurement site to the surface fluxes of various regional and global sources and sinks. We then implement the Kalman filter (with the unit pulse response method) to estimate the surface fluxes on regional/global scales with monthly resolution from January 2000 to December 2004. High frequency observations from the AGAGE, SOGE, NIES, and NOAA/ESRL HATS in situ networks and low frequency observations from the NOAA/ESRL HATS flask network are used to constrain the source and sink magnitudes. The inversion results indicate global total emissions around 4100 ± 470 Gg yr−1 with very large emissions of 2200 ± 390 Gg yr−1 from tropical plants, which turn out to be the largest single source in the CH3Cl budget. Relative to their a priori annual estimates, the inversion increases global annual fungal and tropical emissions, and reduces the global oceanic source. The inversion implies greater seasonal and interannual oscillations of the natural sources and sink of CH3Cl compared to the a priori. The inversion also reflects the strong effects of the 2002/2003 globally widespread heat waves and droughts on global emissions from tropical plants, biomass burning and salt marshes, and on the soil sink.
Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6 ) is a potent greenhouse gas and useful atmospheric tracer. Measurements of SF6 on global and regional scales are necessary to estimate emissions and to verify or examine the ...performance of atmospheric transport models. Typical precision for common gas chromatographic methods with electron capture detection (GC-ECD) is 1-2%. We have modified a common GC-ECD method to achieve measurement precision of 0.5% or better. Global mean SF6 measurements were used to examine changes in the growth rate of SF6 and corresponding SF6 emissions. Global emissions and mixing ratios from 2000-2008 are consistent with recently published work. More recent observations show a 10% decline in SF6 emissions in 2008-2009, which seems to coincide with a decrease in world economic output. This decline was short-lived, as the global SF6 growth rate has recently increased to near its 2007-2008 maximum value of 0.30±0.03 pmol mol-1 (ppt) yr-1 (95% C.L.).
We describe a new 4D-Var inversion framework for nitrous oxide (N2O) based on the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model and its adjoint, and apply it in a series of observing system simulation ...experiments to assess how well N2O sources and sinks can be constrained by the current global observing network. The employed measurement ensemble includes approximately weekly and quasi-continuous N2O measurements (hourly averages used) from several long-term monitoring networks, N2O measurements collected from discrete air samples onboard a commercial aircraft (Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the atmosphere Based on an Instrument Container; CARIBIC), and quasi-continuous measurements from the airborne HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) campaigns. For a 2-year inversion, we find that the surface and HIPPO observations can accurately resolve a uniform bias in emissions during the first year; CARIBIC data provide a somewhat weaker constraint. Variable emission errors are much more difficult to resolve given the long lifetime of N2O, and major parts of the world lack significant constraints on the seasonal cycle of fluxes. Current observations can largely correct a global bias in the stratospheric sink of N2O if emissions are known, but do not provide information on the temporal and spatial distribution of the sink. However, for the more realistic scenario where source and sink are both uncertain, we find that simultaneously optimizing both would require unrealistically small errors in model transport. Regardless, a bias in the magnitude of the N2O sink would not affect the a posteriori N2O emissions for the 2-year timescale used here, given realistic initial conditions, due to the timescale required for stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE). The same does not apply to model errors in the rate of STE itself, which we show exerts a larger influence on the tropospheric burden of N2O than does the chemical loss rate over short (< 3 year) timescales. We use a stochastic estimate of the inverse Hessian for the inversion to evaluate the spatial resolution of emission constraints provided by the observations, and find that significant, spatially explicit constraints can be achieved in locations near and immediately upwind of surface measurements and the HIPPO flight tracks; however, these are mostly confined to North America, Europe, and Australia. None of the current observing networks are able to provide significant spatial information on tropical N2O emissions. There, averaging kernels (describing the sensitivity of the inversion to emissions in each grid square) are highly smeared spatially and extend even to the midlatitudes, so that tropical emissions risk being conflated with those elsewhere. For global inversions, therefore, the current lack of constraints on the tropics also places an important limit on our ability to understand extratropical emissions. Based on the error reduction statistics from the inverse Hessian, we characterize the atmospheric distribution of unconstrained N2O, and identify regions in and downwind of South America, central Africa, and Southeast Asia where new surface or profile measurements would have the most value for reducing present uncertainty in the global N2O budget.
Simultaneous in situ measurements of the long‐lived trace species N2O, CH4, 12, CFC‐113, CFC‐11, CCl4, CH3CCl3, H‐1211, and SF6 were made in the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere on board the ...NASA ER‐2 high‐altitude aircraft during the 1994 campaign Airborne Southern Hemisphere Ozone Experiment/ Measurements for Assessing the Effects of Stratospheric Aircraft. The observed extratropical tracer abundances exhibit compact mutual correlations that show little interhemispheric difference or seasonal variability except at higher altitudes in southern hemisphere spring. The environmental impact of the measured source gases depends, among other factors, on the rate at which they release ozone‐depleting chemicals in the stratosphere, that is, on their stratospheric lifetimes. We calculate the mean age of the air from the SF6 measurements and show how stratospheric lifetimes of the other species may be derived semiempirically from their observed gradients with respect to mean age at the extratropical tropopause. We also derive independent stratospheric lifetimes using the CFC‐11 lifetime and the slopes of the tracer's correlations with CFC‐11. In both cases, we correct for the influence of tropospheric growth on stratospheric tracer gradients using the observed mean age of the air, time series of observed tropospheric abundances, and model‐derived estimates of the width of the stratospheric age spectrum. Lifetime results from the two methods are consistent with each other. Our best estimates for stratospheric lifetimes are 122±24 years for N2O, 93±18 years for CH4, 87±17 years for CFC‐12, 100±32 years for CFC‐113, 32±6 years for CCl4, 34±7 years for CH3CCl3, and 24±6 years for H‐1211. Most of these estimates are significantly smaller than currently recommended lifetimes, which are based largely on photochemical model calculations. Because the derived stratospheric lifetimes are identical to atmospheric lifetimes for most of the species considered, the shorter lifetimes would imply a faster recovery of the ozone layer following the phaseout of industrial halocarbons than currently predicted.
Carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) has substantial stratospheric ozone depletion potential and its consumption is controlled under the Montreal Protocol and its amendments. We implement a Kalman filter ...using atmospheric CCl4 measurements and a 3-dimensional chemical transport model to estimate the interannual regional industrial emissions and seasonal global oceanic uptake of CCl4 for the period of 1996–2004. The Model of Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry (MATCH), driven by offline National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis meteorological fields, is used to simulate CCl4 mole fractions and calculate their sensitivities to regional sources and sinks using a finite difference approach. High frequency observations from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) and the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and low frequency flask observations are together used to constrain the source and sink magnitudes, estimated as factors that multiply the a priori fluxes. Although industry data imply that the global industrial emissions were substantially declining with large interannual variations, the optimized results show only small interannual variations and a small decreasing trend. The global surface CCl4 mole fractions were declining in this period because the CCl4 oceanic and stratospheric sinks exceeded the industrial emissions. Compared to the a priori values, the inversion results indicate substantial increases in industrial emissions originating from the South Asian/Indian and Southeast Asian regions, and significant decreases in emissions from the European and North American regions.
Observations of SF6 are used to quantify the mean time since air was in (“mean age” from) the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitude surface layer. The mean age is a fundamental property of ...tropospheric transport that can be used in theoretical studies and used to evaluate transport in comprehensive models. Comparisons of simulated SF6 and an idealized clock tracer confirm that the time lag between the SF6 mixing ratio at a given location and the NH midlatitude surface provides an accurate estimate of the mean age. The ages calculated from surface SF6 measurements show large meridional gradients in the tropics but weak gradients in the extratropics, with near‐zero ages at the surface north of 30°N and ages around 1.4 years south of 30°S. Aircraft measurements show weak vertical age gradients in the lower and middle troposphere, with only slight increases of age with height in the NH and slight decreases with height in the Southern Hemisphere. There are large seasonal variations in the age at tropical stations (annual amplitudes around 0.5–1.0 year), with younger ages during northern winter, but only weak seasonal variations at higher latitudes. The seasonality and interannual variations in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere are related to changes in locations of tropical convection. There is qualitative agreement, in both spatial and temporal variations, between the simulated ages and observations. The model ages tend to be older than observed, with differences of ~0.2 year in the Northern Hemisphere upper troposphere and throughout the Southern Hemisphere troposphere.
Key Points
SF6 quantifies mean time since air was in NH mid‐latitude surface layer
Surface SF6 age varies from near zero north of 30°N to 1.4 years south of 30°S
SF6 age is useful for evaluating tropospheric transport in models
Accurate mean ages for stratospheric air have been derived from a spatially and temporally comprehensive set of in situ observations of CO2, CH4, and N2O obtained from 1992 to 1998 from the NASA ER‐2 ...aircraft and balloon flights. Errors associated with the tropospheric CO2 seasonal cycle and interannual variations in the CO2 growth rate are <0.5 year throughout the stratosphere and <0.3 year for air older than 2 years (N2O<275 ppbv), indicating that the age spectra are broad enough to attenuate these influences over the time period covered by these observations. The distribution of mean age with latitude and altitude provides detailed, quantitative information about the general circulation of the stratosphere. At 20 km, sharp meridional gradients in the mean age are observed across the subtropics. Between 20 and 30 km, the average difference in mean age between the tropics and midlatitudes is ∼2 years, with slightly smaller differences at higher and lower altitudes. The mean age in the midlatitude middle stratosphere (∼25–32 km) is relatively constant with respect to altitude at 5±0.5 years. Comparison with earlier balloon observations of CO2 dating back to the 1970s indicates that the mean age of air in this region has remained within ±1 year of its current value over the last 25 years. A climatology of mean age is derived from the observed compact relationship between mean age and N2O. These characteristics of the distribution of mean age in the stratosphere will serve as critically needed diagnostics for models of stratospheric transport.
Airborne in situ observations of molecules with a wide range of lifetimes (methane, nitrous oxide, reactive nitrogen, ozone, chlorinated halocarbons, and halon-1211), used in a tropical tracer model, ...show that mid-latitude air is entrained into the tropical lower stratosphere within about 13.5 months; transport is faster in the reverse direction. Because exchange with the tropics is slower than global photochemical models generally assume, ozone at mid-latitudes appears to be more sensitive to elevated levels of industrial chlorine than is currently predicted. Nevertheless, about 45 percent of air in the tropical ascent region at 21 kilometers is of mid-latitude origin, implying that emissions from supersonic aircraft could reach the middle stratosphere.
We present a comprehensive estimate of nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions using observations and models from 1995 to 2008. High-frequency records of tropospheric N2O are available from measurements at ...Cape Grim, Tasmania; Cape Matatula, American Samoa; Ragged Point, Barbados; Mace Head, Ireland; and at Trinidad Head, California using the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) instrumentation and calibrations. The Global Monitoring Division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL) has also collected discrete air samples in flasks and in situ measurements from remote sites across the globe and analyzed them for a suite of species including N2O. In addition to these major networks, we include in situ and aircraft measurements from the National Institute of Environmental Studies (NIES) and flask measurements from the Tohoku University and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) networks. All measurements show increasing atmospheric mole fractions of N2O, with a varying growth rate of 0.1–0.7% per year, resulting in a 7.4% increase in the background atmospheric mole fraction between 1979 and 2011. Using existing emission inventories as well as bottom-up process modeling results, we first create globally gridded a priori N2O emissions over the 37 years since 1975. We then use the three-dimensional chemical transport model, Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers version 4 (MOZART v4), and a Bayesian inverse method to estimate global as well as regional annual emissions for five source sectors from 13 regions in the world. This is the first time that all of these measurements from multiple networks have been combined to determine emissions. Our inversion indicates that global and regional N2O emissions have an increasing trend between 1995 and 2008. Despite large uncertainties, a significant increase is seen from the Asian agricultural sector in recent years, most likely due to an increase in the use of nitrogenous fertilizers, as has been suggested by previous studies.
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