The recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer relies on the continued decline in the atmospheric concentrations of ozone-depleting gases such as chlorofluorocarbons
. The atmospheric concentration of ...trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11), the second-most abundant chlorofluorocarbon, has declined substantially since the mid-1990s
. A recently reported slowdown in the decline of the atmospheric concentration of CFC-11 after 2012, however, suggests that global emissions have increased
. A concurrent increase in CFC-11 emissions from eastern Asia contributes to the global emission increase, but the location and magnitude of this regional source are unknown
. Here, using high-frequency atmospheric observations from Gosan, South Korea, and Hateruma, Japan, together with global monitoring data and atmospheric chemical transport model simulations, we investigate regional CFC-11 emissions from eastern Asia. We show that emissions from eastern mainland China are 7.0 ± 3.0 (±1 standard deviation) gigagrams per year higher in 2014-2017 than in 2008-2012, and that the increase in emissions arises primarily around the northeastern provinces of Shandong and Hebei. This increase accounts for a substantial fraction (at least 40 to 60 per cent) of the global rise in CFC-11 emissions. We find no evidence for a significant increase in CFC-11 emissions from any other eastern Asian countries or other regions of the world where there are available data for the detection of regional emissions. The attribution of any remaining fraction of the global CFC-11 emission rise to other regions is limited by the sparsity of long-term measurements of sufficient frequency near potentially emissive regions. Several considerations suggest that the increase in CFC-11 emissions from eastern mainland China is likely to be the result of new production and use, which is inconsistent with the Montreal Protocol agreement to phase out global chlorofluorocarbon production by 2010.
Abstract Objective Despite Level 1b evidence and international consensus that exercise is beneficial in ankylosing spondylitis (AS), there is a paucity of detailed information to guide exercise ...prescription, including the type and dosage of exercise required for the most benefit. This collaborative project, combining evidence with clinical expertise, was established to develop practical recommendations to guide sustainable exercise prescription for individuals with AS. Methods Using a modified Delphi technique, 10 clinical questions were generated and a systematic literature review was conducted for each. Draft recommendations were developed at a 2-day meeting, based on the integration of evidence summaries and expert opinion. Feedback was obtained from patient and health professional groups prior to finalisation. Results Recommendations and practice points were developed for the following areas: assessment; monitoring; safety; disease management; AS-specific exercise; physical activity; dosage, adherence and setting. A framework was developed that could also be adapted for exercise in other chronic musculoskeletal conditions. Feedback suggests that the final consensus statement provides useful information for those seeking to provide best practice exercise prescription for people with AS. Conclusion The recommendations provide an up-to-date, evidence-based approach to the full range of issues related to the use of exercise in AS, as well as identifying evidence gaps for further research. Most importantly, this includes investigation of aspects of exercise programme design required to produce the largest effect, long-term adherence with exercise programs and the specific exercise requirements of sub-groups of people with AS. Widespread dissemination and implementation of the guidelines will be required to optimise exercise outcomes.
A new nitrous oxide (N2O) calibration scale has been developed for atmospheric observations. The NOAA‐2006 N2O scale is based on gravimetrically prepared compressed gas standards. This scale ...supercedes the NOAA‐2000 scale, which was accepted by the community of experts within the World Meteorological Organization Global Atmosphere Watch program (GAW) as the GAW reference standard. The new scale is defined by thirteen “daughter” standards with dry air mole fractions ranging from 261–371 parts‐per‐billion (nmol mol−1, ppb). These were derived from four part‐per‐million (mmol mol−1, ppm) level “parents”. Standards were evaluated using gas chromatography with electron capture detection. The daughter standards are internally consistent with a standard deviation of residuals of 0.33 ppb, and there is essentially no detectable difference among “cousins” (standards prepared from different parents). The NOAA‐2006 scale is 0.19 ppb lower than the NOAA‐2000 scale at 320 ppb. The global mean N2O mixing ratio (dry air mole fraction), calculated from in situ observations at five monitoring sites was 318.46 ppb in 2004 on the new scale. The NOAA‐2006 scale compares well with other scales based on comparisons of compressed gas standards. The NOAA‐2006 scale is, on average, 0.23% higher than that defined by NIST Standard Reference Materials 2608 and 2609, and an average of 0.01% lower than the Scripps Institution of Oceanography SIO‐98 scale over the range 298–319 ppb.
We show that the cool gas masses of galactic discs reach a steady state that lasts many Gyr after their last major merger in cosmological hydrodynamic simulations. The mass of disc gas, M
gas, ...depends mostly upon a galaxy virial mass and halo's spin, and less upon stellar feedback. Haloes with low spin have high star formation efficiency and lower disc gas mass. Similarly, lower stellar feedback leads to more star formation so the gas mass ends up being nearly the same regardless of stellar feedback strength. Rather than regulating cool gas mass, stellar feedback regulates the mass of stars that forms. Even considering spin, the M
gas relation with halo mass, M
200 only shows a factor of 3 scatter. The simulated M
gas–M
200 relation shows a break at M
200 = 2 × 1011 M⊙ that corresponds to an observed break in the M
gas–M
⋆ relation. The galaxies that maintain constant disc masses share a common halo gas density profile shape in all the simulated galaxies. In their outer regions, the profiles are isothermal. Where the profile rises above n = 10−3 cm−3, the gas readily cools and the profile steepens. Inside the disc, rotation supports gas with a flatter density profile. Energy injection from stellar feedback provides pressure support to the halo gas to prevent runaway cooling flows. The constant gas mass makes simpler models for galaxy formation possible, either using a ‘bathtub’ model for star formation rates or when modelling chemical evolution.
We present atmospheric sulfur hexafluoride (SF6 ) mole fractions and emissions estimates from the 1970s to 2008. Measurements were made of archived air samples starting from 1973 in the Northern ...Hemisphere and from 1978 in the Southern Hemisphere, using the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) gas chromatographic-mass spectrometric (GC-MS) systems. These measurements were combined with modern high-frequency GC-MS and GC-electron capture detection (ECD) data from AGAGE monitoring sites, to produce a unique 35-year atmospheric record of this potent greenhouse gas. Atmospheric mole fractions were found to have increased by more than an order of magnitude between 1973 and 2008. The 2008 growth rate was the highest recorded, at 0.29 ± 0.02 pmolmol-1 yr-1 . A three-dimensional chemical transport model and a minimum variance Bayesian inverse method was used to estimate annual emission rates using the measurements, with a priori estimates from the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR, version 4). Consistent with the mole fraction growth rate maximum, global emissions during 2008 were also the highest in the 1973-2008 period, reaching 7.4 ± 0.6 Gg yr-1 (1-σ uncertainties) and surpassing the previous maximum in 1995. The 2008 values follow an increase in emissions of 48 ± 20% since 2001. A second global inversion which also incorporated National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) flask measurements and in situ monitoring site data agreed well with the emissions derived using AGAGE measurements alone. By estimating continent-scale emissions using all available AGAGE and NOAA surface measurements covering the period 2004-2008, with no pollution filtering, we find that it is likely that much of the global emissions rise during this five-year period originated primarily from Asian developing countries that do not report detailed, annual emissions to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). We also find it likely that SF6 emissions reported to the UNFCCC were underestimated between at least 2004 and 2005.
We present a comprehensive estimate of nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions using observations and models from 1995 to 2008. High-frequency records of tropospheric N2O are available from measurements at ...Cape Grim, Tasmania; Cape Matatula, American Samoa; Ragged Point, Barbados; Mace Head, Ireland; and at Trinidad Head, California using the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) instrumentation and calibrations. The Global Monitoring Division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL) has also collected discrete air samples in flasks and in situ measurements from remote sites across the globe and analyzed them for a suite of species including N2O. In addition to these major networks, we include in situ and aircraft measurements from the National Institute of Environmental Studies (NIES) and flask measurements from the Tohoku University and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) networks. All measurements show increasing atmospheric mole fractions of N2O, with a varying growth rate of 0.1–0.7% per year, resulting in a 7.4% increase in the background atmospheric mole fraction between 1979 and 2011. Using existing emission inventories as well as bottom-up process modeling results, we first create globally gridded a priori N2O emissions over the 37 years since 1975. We then use the three-dimensional chemical transport model, Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers version 4 (MOZART v4), and a Bayesian inverse method to estimate global as well as regional annual emissions for five source sectors from 13 regions in the world. This is the first time that all of these measurements from multiple networks have been combined to determine emissions. Our inversion indicates that global and regional N2O emissions have an increasing trend between 1995 and 2008. Despite large uncertainties, a significant increase is seen from the Asian agricultural sector in recent years, most likely due to an increase in the use of nitrogenous fertilizers, as has been suggested by previous studies.
The amount of chlorine in the stratosphere has a direct influence on the magnitude of chlorine‐catalyzed ozone loss. A comprehensive suite of organic source gases of chlorine in the stratosphere was ...measured during the NASA Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) III Ozone Loss and Validation Experiment (SOLVE) campaign in the arctic winter of 2000. Measurements included chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), halon 1211, solvents, methyl chloride, N2O, and CH4. Inorganic chlorine contributions from each compound were calculated using the organic chlorine measurements, mean age of air, tropospheric trends, and a method to account for mixing in the stratosphere. Total organic chlorine measured at tropospheric levels of N2O was on the order of 3500 ppt. Total calculated inorganic chlorine at a N2O mixing ratio of 50 ppb (corresponding to a mean age of 5.5 years) was on the order of 3400 ppt. CFCs were the largest contributors to total organic chlorine (55–70%) over the measured N2O range (50–315 ppb), followed by CH3Cl (15%), solvents (5–20%), and HCFCs (5–25%). CH3Cl contribution was consistently about 15% across the organic chlorine range. Contributions to total calculated inorganic chlorine at 50 ppb N2O were 58% from CFCs, 24% from solvents, 16% from CH3Cl, and 2% from HCFCs. Updates to fractional chlorine release values for each compound relative to CFC 11 were calculated from the SOLVE measurements. An average value of 0.58 was calculated for the fractional chlorine release of CFC 11 over the 3–4 year mean age range, which was lower than the previous value of 0.80. The fractional chlorine release values for HCFCs 141b and 142b relative to CFC 11 were significantly lower than previous calculations.
Vertical profiles of CFC-11 (CCl3F) and CFC-12 (CCl2F2) have been measured with the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) with global coverage under daytime and nighttime ...conditions. The profile retrieval is based on constrained nonlinear least squares fitting of measured limb spectral radiance to modeled spectra. CFC-11 is measured in its ν4-band at 850 cm−1, and CFC-12 is analyzed in its ν6-band at 922 cm−1. To stabilize the retrievals, a Tikhonov-type smoothing constraint is applied. Main retrieval error sources are measurement noise and elevation pointing uncertainties. The estimated CFC-11 retrieval errors including noise and parameter errors but excluding spectroscopic data uncertainties are below 10 pptv in the middle stratosphere, depending on altitude, the MIPAS measurement mode and the actual atmospheric situation. For CFC-12 the total retrieval errors are below 28 pptv at an altitude resolution varying from 3 to 5 km. Time series of altitude/latitude bins were fitted by a simple parametric approach including constant and linear terms, a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) proxy and sine and cosine terms of several periods. In the time series from 2002 to 2011, quasi-biennial and annual oscillations are clearly visible. A decrease of stratospheric CFC mixing ratios in response to the Montreal Protocol is observed for most altitudes and latitudes. However, the trends differ from the trends measured in the troposphere, they are even positive at some latitudes and altitudes, and can in some cases only be explained by decadal changes in atmospheric age of air spectra or vertical mixing patterns.
Profiles of CFC-11 (CCl3F) and CFC-12 (CCl2F2) of the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) aboard the European satellite Envisat have been retrieved from versions ...MIPAS/4.61 to MIPAS/4.62 and MIPAS/5.02 to MIPAS/5.06 level-1b data using the scientific level-2 processor run by Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK) and Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC), Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía (IAA). These profiles have been compared to measurements taken by the balloon-borne cryosampler, Mark IV (MkIV) and MIPAS-Balloon (MIPAS-B), the airborne MIPAS-STRatospheric aircraft (MIPAS-STR), the satellite-borne Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier transform spectrometer (ACE-FTS) and the High Resolution Dynamic Limb Sounder (HIRDLS), as well as the ground-based Halocarbon and other Atmospheric Trace Species (HATS) network for the reduced spectral resolution period (RR: January 2005–April 2012) of MIPAS. ACE-FTS, MkIV and HATS also provide measurements during the high spectral resolution period (full resolution, FR: July 2002–March 2004) and were used to validate MIPAS CFC-11 and CFC-12 products during that time, as well as profiles from the Improved Limb Atmospheric Spectrometer, ILAS-II. In general, we find that MIPAS shows slightly higher values for CFC-11 at the lower end of the profiles (below ∼ 15 km) and in a comparison of HATS ground-based data and MIPAS measurements at 3 km below the tropopause. Differences range from approximately 10 to 50 pptv ( ∼ 5–20 %) during the RR period. In general, differences are slightly smaller for the FR period. An indication of a slight high bias at the lower end of the profile exists for CFC-12 as well, but this bias is far less pronounced than for CFC-11 and is not as obvious in the relative differences between MIPAS and any of the comparison instruments. Differences at the lower end of the profile (below ∼ 15 km) and in the comparison of HATS and MIPAS measurements taken at 3 km below the tropopause mainly stay within 10–50 pptv (corresponding to ∼ 2–10 % for CFC-12) for the RR and the FR period. Between ∼ 15 and 30 km, most comparisons agree within 10–20 pptv (10–20 %), apart from ILAS-II, which shows large differences above ∼ 17 km. Overall, relative differences are usually smaller for CFC-12 than for CFC-11. For both species – CFC-11 and CFC-12 – we find that differences at the lower end of the profile tend to be larger at higher latitudes than in tropical and subtropical regions. In addition, MIPAS profiles have a maximum in their mixing ratio around the tropopause, which is most obvious in tropical mean profiles. Comparisons of the standard deviation in a quiescent atmosphere (polar summer) show that only the CFC-12 FR error budget can fully explain the observed variability, while for the other products (CFC-11 FR and RR and CFC-12 RR) only two-thirds to three-quarters can be explained. Investigations regarding the temporal stability show very small negative drifts in MIPAS CFC-11 measurements. These instrument drifts vary between ∼ 1 and 3 % decade−1. For CFC-12, the drifts are also negative and close to zero up to ∼ 30 km. Above that altitude, larger drifts of up to ∼ 50 % decade−1 appear which are negative up to ∼ 35 km and positive, but of a similar magnitude, above.
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