The ambitious development agenda of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) requires substantial investments across several sectors, including for SDG 3 (healthy lives and wellbeing). No estimates ...of the additional resources needed to strengthen comprehensive health service delivery towards the attainment of SDG 3 and universal health coverage in low-income and middle-income countries have been published.
We developed a framework for health systems strengthening, within which population-level and individual-level health service coverage is gradually scaled up over time. We developed projections for 67 low-income and middle-income countries from 2016 to 2030, representing 95% of the total population in low-income and middle-income countries. We considered four service delivery platforms, and modelled two scenarios with differing levels of ambition: a progress scenario, in which countries' advancement towards global targets is constrained by their health system's assumed absorptive capacity, and an ambitious scenario, in which most countries attain the global targets. We estimated the associated costs and health effects, including reduced prevalence of illness, lives saved, and increases in life expectancy. We projected available funding by country and year, taking into account economic growth and anticipated allocation towards the health sector, to allow for an analysis of affordability and financial sustainability.
We estimate that an additional $274 billion spending on health is needed per year by 2030 to make progress towards the SDG 3 targets (progress scenario), whereas US$371 billion would be needed to reach health system targets in the ambitious scenario—the equivalent of an additional $41 (range 15–102) or $58 (22–167) per person, respectively, by the final years of scale-up. In the ambitious scenario, total health-care spending would increase to a population-weighted mean of $271 per person (range 74–984) across country contexts, and the share of gross domestic product spent on health would increase to a mean of 7·5% (2·1–20·5). Around 75% of costs are for health systems, with health workforce and infrastructure (including medical equipment) as the main cost drivers. Despite projected increases in health spending, a financing gap of $20–54 billion per year is projected. Should funds be made available and used as planned, the ambitious scenario would save 97 million lives and significantly increase life expectancy by 3·1–8·4 years, depending on the country profile.
All countries will need to strengthen investments in health systems to expand service provision in order to reach SDG 3 health targets, but even the poorest can reach some level of universality. In view of anticipated resource constraints, each country will need to prioritise equitably, plan strategically, and cost realistically its own path towards SDG 3 and universal health coverage.
WHO.
Since WHO declared the COVID-19 pandemic a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, more than 20 million cases have been reported, as of Aug 24, 2020. This study aimed to identify what the ...additional health-care costs of a strategic preparedness and response plan (SPRP) would be if current transmission levels are maintained in a status quo scenario, or under scenarios where transmission is increased or decreased by 50%.
The number of COVID-19 cases was projected for 73 low-income and middle-income countries for each of the three scenarios for both 4-week and 12-week timeframes, starting from June 26, 2020. An input-based approach was used to estimate the additional health-care costs associated with human resources, commodities, and capital inputs that would be accrued in implementing the SPRP.
The total cost estimate for the COVID-19 response in the status quo scenario was US$52·45 billion over 4 weeks, at $8·60 per capita. For the decreased or increased transmission scenarios, the totals were $33·08 billion and $61·92 billion, respectively. Costs would triple under the status quo and increased transmission scenarios at 12 weeks. The costs of the decreased transmission scenario over 12 weeks was equivalent to the cost of the status quo scenario at 4 weeks. By percentage of the overall cost, case management (54%), maintaining essential services (21%), rapid response and case investigation (14%), and infection prevention and control (9%) were the main cost drivers.
The sizeable costs of a COVID-19 response in the health sector will escalate, particularly if transmission increases. Instituting early and comprehensive measures to limit the further spread of the virus will conserve resources and sustain the response.
WHO, and UK Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office.
A number of approaches have been used to grade levels of evidence and the strength of recommendations. The use of many different approaches detracts from one of the main reasons for having explicit ...approaches: to concisely characterise and communicate this information so that it can easily be understood and thereby help people make well-informed decisions. Our objective was to critically appraise six prominent systems for grading levels of evidence and the strength of recommendations as a basis for agreeing on characteristics of a common, sensible approach to grading levels of evidence and the strength of recommendations.
Six prominent systems for grading levels of evidence and strength of recommendations were selected and someone familiar with each system prepared a description of each of these. Twelve assessors independently evaluated each system based on twelve criteria to assess the sensibility of the different approaches. Systems used by 51 organisations were compared with these six approaches.
There was poor agreement about the sensibility of the six systems. Only one of the systems was suitable for all four types of questions we considered (effectiveness, harm, diagnosis and prognosis). None of the systems was considered usable for all of the target groups we considered (professionals, patients and policy makers). The raters found low reproducibility of judgements made using all six systems. Systems used by 51 organisations that sponsor clinical practice guidelines included a number of minor variations of the six systems that we critically appraised.
All of the currently used approaches to grading levels of evidence and the strength of recommendations have important shortcomings.
Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) is potentially an important aid to public health decision-making but, with some notable exceptions, its use and impact at the level of individual countries is ...limited. A number of potential reasons may account for this, among them technical shortcomings associated with the generation of current economic evidence, political expediency, social preferences and systemic barriers to implementation. As a form of sectoral CEA, Generalized CEA sets out to overcome a number of these barriers to the appropriate use of cost-effectiveness information at the regional and country level. Its application via WHO-CHOICE provides a new economic evidence base, as well as underlying methodological developments, concerning the cost-effectiveness of a range of health interventions for leading causes of, and risk factors for, disease.The estimated sub-regional costs and effects of different interventions provided by WHO-CHOICE can readily be tailored to the specific context of individual countries, for example by adjustment to the quantity and unit prices of intervention inputs (costs) or the coverage, efficacy and adherence rates of interventions (effectiveness). The potential usefulness of this information for health policy and planning is in assessing if current intervention strategies represent an efficient use of scarce resources, and which of the potential additional interventions that are not yet implemented, or not implemented fully, should be given priority on the grounds of cost-effectiveness.Health policy-makers and programme managers can use results from WHO-CHOICE as a valuable input into the planning and prioritization of services at national level, as well as a starting point for additional analyses of the trade-off between the efficiency of interventions in producing health and their impact on other key outcomes such as reducing inequalities and improving the health of the poor.
Primary health care (PHC) is a driving force for advancing towards universal health coverage (UHC). PHC-oriented health systems bring enormous benefits but require substantial financial investments. ...Here, we aim to present measures for PHC investments and project the associated resource needs.
This modelling study analysed data from 67 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Recognising the variation in PHC services among countries, we propose three measures for PHC, with different scope for included interventions and system strengthening. Measure 1 is centred on public health interventions and outpatient care; measure 2 adds general inpatient care; and measure 3 further adds cross-sectoral activities. Cost components included in each measure were based on the Declaration of Astana, informed by work delineating PHC within health accounts, and finalised through an expert and country validation meeting. We extracted the subset of PHC costs for each measure from WHO's Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) price tag for the 67 LMICs, and projected the associated health impact. Estimates of financial resource need, health workforce, and outpatient visits are presented as PHC investment guide posts for LMICs.
An estimated additional US$200–328 billion per year is required for the various measures of PHC from 2020 to 2030. For measure 1, an additional $32 is needed per capita across the countries. Needs are greatest in low-income countries where PHC spending per capita needs to increase from $25 to $65. Overall health workforces would need to increase from 5·6 workers per 1000 population to 6·7 per 1000 population, delivering an average of 5·9 outpatient visits per capita per year. Increasing coverage of PHC interventions would avert an estimated 60·1 million deaths and increase average life expectancy by 3·7 years. By 2030, these incremental PHC costs would be about 3·3% of projected gross domestic product (GDP; median 1·7%, range 0·1–20·2). In a business-as-usual financing scenario, 25 of 67 countries will have funding gaps in 2030. If funding for PHC was increased by 1–2% of GDP across all countries, as few as 16 countries would see a funding gap by 2030.
The resources required to strengthen PHC vary across countries, depending on demographic trends, disease burden, and health system capacity. The proposed PHC investment guide posts advance discussions around the budgetary implications of strengthening PHC, including relevant system investment needs and achievable health outcomes. Preliminary findings suggest that low-income and lower-middle-income countries would need to at least double current spending on PHC to strengthen their systems and universally provide essential PHC services. Investing in PHC will bring substantial health benefits and build human capital. At country level, PHC interventions need to be explicitly identified, and plans should be made for how to most appropriately reorient the health system towards PHC as a key lever towards achieving UHC and the health-related SDGs.
The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Out of pocket health payment (OOPs) has been identified by the System of Health Accounts (SHA) as the largest source of health care financing in most low and middle-income countries. This means that ...most low and middle-income countries will rely on user fees and co-payments to generate revenue, rationalize the use of services, contain health systems costs or improve health system efficiency and service quality. However, the accurate measurement of OOPs has been challenged by several limitations which are attributed to both sampling and non-sampling errors when OOPs are estimated from household surveys, the primary source of information in LICs and LMICs. The incorrect measurement of OOP health payments can undermine the credibility of current health spending estimates, an otherwise important indicator for tracking UHC, hence there is the need to address these limitations and improve the measurement of OOPs. In an attempt to improve the measurement of OOPs in surveys, the INDEPTH-Network Household out-of-pocket expenditure project (iHOPE) developed new modules on household health utilization and expenditure by repurposing the existing Ghana Living Standards Survey instrument and validating these new tools with a 'gold standard' (provider data) with the aim of proposing alternative approaches capable of producing reliable data for estimating OOPs in the context of National Health Accounts and for the purpose of monitoring financial protection in health. This paper reports on the challenges and opportunities in using and linking household reported out-of-pocket health expenditures to their corresponding provider records for the purpose of validating household reported out-of-pocket health expenditure in the iHOPE project.
Out-of-pocket payments (OOPs), direct payments by households or individuals for healthcare are part of the health financing landscape. Data on OOPs is needed to monitor progress in financial risk ...protection, and the evaluation of health financing policies. In low-and-middle-income countries, estimates of OOPs rely heavily on self-reported data from household surveys. These surveys require respondents to recall events in the past and can suffer from recall biases. This study investigates the effect of recall period on the agreement of the amount and timing of inpatient OOPs between household reports and provider records in Bavi, Vietnam. We recruited 1397 households for interview using records from the district hospital. The households were interviewed with identical questionnaires except that the recall period was either 12 or 6 months. We linked household with provider data and excluded medicine costs from both household and provider OOPs since they could be purchased outside the hospital. We estimated the effect of recall period on the overall mean and variability of ratios of household to hospital reported OOPs using the Bland-Altman approach for method comparison. We estimated the effect of recall period on whether a transaction was recalled correctly in expenditure and time using multinomial regression. The households reported higher amounts of OOPs than did the hospital for both recall periods. There was no evidence of an effect of recall period on the mean of the ratios of household- to hospital-reported OOPs, although the confidence intervals are not inconsistent with previous studies indicating higher OOPs for shorter recall periods. The geometric mean ratio for the 6-month period was estimated to be a multiple of 1.4 (95% CI 0.9, 2.1) times that of the 12-month period. Similarly, there was no evidence of an effect of recall period on the risk of reporting lower or higher amounts than provider OOPs. The occurrence and timing of inpatient stays generally recalled well, with 70% remembered in the correct month declining slightly over time. Respondents for the 6-month recall period had a significantly lower risk of failing to report the event (RR 0.8 (0.7, 1.0)). The results suggest the best recall period may depend on whether the purpose of a survey is for the recall of the timing of events, in which case the 6 month period may be better, or the amounts of OOPs, where there was no significant difference and the provider records are not a gold standard but the 12 month period had a tendency to be in closer agreement with the provider OOPs.
Health taxes: a call for papers Marten, Robert; Paul, Jeremias; Tan Torres Edejer, Tessa ...
BMJ global health,
10/2022, Letnik:
7, Številka:
10
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
A 2021 WHO report showed that only 13% of the world’s population is covered by best-practice levels of tobacco taxes despite being the single most effective way to reduce tobacco use.3 There are ...important linkages across tobacco, alcohol and sugar-sweetened beverages in terms of how taxes are designed, developed and implemented.4 There is also growing interest for health taxes on products like fossil fuels,5 meat,6 as well as salt among others. ...governments are requesting WHO’s technical assistance. ...health taxes are often successfully portrayed by corporate actors and vested interests as attacks on individual and consumer rights instead of being championed by public health practitioners as reasonable ways to contain corporate interests and protect, reduce deaths and improve human lives.10 The strategic consideration and development of health tax policies must be considered in terms of the broader commercial determinants of health as well as within the context of power and politics.
Systems that are used by different organisations to grade the quality of evidence and the strength of recommendations vary. They have different strengths and weaknesses. The GRADE Working Group has ...developed an approach that addresses key shortcomings in these systems. The aim of this study was to pilot test and further develop the GRADE approach to grading evidence and recommendations.
A GRADE evidence profile consists of two tables: a quality assessment and a summary of findings. Twelve evidence profiles were used in this pilot study. Each evidence profile was made based on information available in a systematic review. Seventeen people were given instructions and independently graded the level of evidence and strength of recommendation for each of the 12 evidence profiles. For each example judgements were collected, summarised and discussed in the group with the aim of improving the proposed grading system. Kappas were calculated as a measure of chance-corrected agreement for the quality of evidence for each outcome for each of the twelve evidence profiles. The seventeen judges were also asked about the ease of understanding and the sensibility of the approach. All of the judgements were recorded and disagreements discussed.
There was a varied amount of agreement on the quality of evidence for the outcomes relating to each of the twelve questions (kappa coefficients for agreement beyond chance ranged from 0 to 0.82). However, there was fair agreement about the relative importance of each outcome. There was poor agreement about the balance of benefits and harms and recommendations. Most of the disagreements were easily resolved through discussion. In general we found the GRADE approach to be clear, understandable and sensible. Some modifications were made in the approach and it was agreed that more information was needed in the evidence profiles.
Judgements about evidence and recommendations are complex. Some subjectivity, especially regarding recommendations, is unavoidable. We believe our system for guiding these complex judgements appropriately balances the need for simplicity with the need for full and transparent consideration of all important issues.
Abstract Users of clinical practice guidelines and other recommendations need to know how much confidence they can place in the recommendations. Systematic and explicit methods of making judgments ...can reduce errors and improve communication. We have developed a system for grading the quality of evidence and the strength of recommendations that can be applied across a wide range of interventions and contexts. In this article we present a summary of our approach from the perspective of a guideline user. Judgments about the strength of a recommendation require consideration of the balance between benefits and harms, the quality of the evidence, translation of the evidence into specific circumstances, and the certainty of the baseline risk. It is also important to consider costs (resource utilisation) before making a recommendation. Inconsistencies among systems for grading the quality of evidence and the strength of recommendations reduce their potential to facilitate critical appraisal and improve communication of these judgments. Our system for guiding these complex judgments balances the need for simplicity with the need for full and transparent consideration of all important issues. Clinical guidelines are only as good as the evidence and judgments they are based on. The GRADE approach aims to make it easier for users to assess the judgments behind recommendations
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