Members in ensemble forecasts differ due to the representations of initial uncertainties and model uncertainties. The inclusion of stochastic schemes to represent model uncertainties has improved the ...probabilistic skill of the ECMWF ensemble by increasing reliability and reducing the error of the ensemble mean. Recent progress, challenges and future directions regarding stochastic representations of model uncertainties at ECMWF are described in this article. The coming years are likely to see a further increase in the use of ensemble methods in forecasts and assimilation. This will put increasing demands on the methods used to perturb the forecast model. An area that is receiving greater attention than 5–10 years ago is the physical consistency of the perturbations. Other areas where future efforts will be directed are the expansion of uncertainty representations to the dynamical core and other components of the Earth system, as well as the overall computational efficiency of representing model uncertainty.
Parametrization schemes generate tendencies that adjust the model state variables to account for physical processes. Pictured here is the ensemble mean of the net temperature tendencies (K) in the mid‐troposphere from the physics schemes for the first 3 h of an ensemble forecast. What is the uncertainty associated with such tendencies? And how should we represent the uncertainty in our ensemble forecasting systems? This article reviews methods for stochastic representations of model uncertainty for assimilation and forecasting.
Knowledge of cholesterol and its interaction with protein molecules is of fundamental importance. This books examines the structural and functional aspects of the families of cholesterol-binding and ...cholesterol transport proteins.
This volume of the Subcellular Biochemistry series is the result of the long-standing research interest of the editor in the molecular mechanism underlying Alzheimers disease and other amyloid ...diseases, indicated also by the earlier book in the series (Volume 38), devoted to Alzheimers disease. The broad coverage within the present amyloidogenesis book represents an attempt to collate current knowledge relating to the proteins and peptides involved in most of the known amyloid diseases, together with some amyloid/fibril-forming proteins and peptides that are not involved in diseases. Thus, the range of topics included is comprehensive and furthermore it was thought appropriate to include both basic science and clinical presentation of the subjects under discussion.
Assessment of human casualties in earthquakes has become a topic of vital importance for national and urban authorities responsible for emergency provision, for the development of mitigation ...strategies and for the development of adequate insurance schemes. In the last few years important work has been carried out on a number of recent events (including earthquakes in Kocaeli, Turkey 1999, Niigata Japan, 2004, Sichuan, China 2008 and L'Aquila,Italy 2009). These events have created new and detailed casualty data, which has not until now been properly assembled and evaluated. This book draws the new evidence from recent events together with existing knowledge. It summarises current trends in the understanding of the factors influencing the numbers and types of casualties in earthquakes, it offers methods to incorporate this understanding into the estimation of losses in future events in different parts of the world, it discusses ways in which pre-event mitigation activity and post-event emergency management can reduce the toll of casualties in future events, and it identifies future research needs.
Lipids in Health and Disease Harris, J. Robin; Quinn, Peter J; Wang, Xiaoyuan
2008, 20080101, 2008-09-01, Letnik:
49
eBook, Book
This volume gives an up-to-date account of the properties of the classes of lipids that are located in the membranes of all cells. These lipids form the essential structural components of the plasma ...membrane responsible for maintaining the distinct identity of the cell from its surroundings and mediating the flow of vital solutes into and out of the cell. The membrane lipids also represent reservoirs of signaling molecules that modulate a variety of physiological processes. The presentation gives a balanced perspective of what is currently known about the function of these lipids in healthy cells and tissues and what consequences follow malfunctions in their synthesis and metabolism.
This paper describes the Polarization Spectroscopic Telescope Array (PolSTAR), a mission proposed to NASA’s 2014 Small Explorer (SMEX) announcement of opportunity. PolSTAR measures the linear ...polarization of 3–50 keV (requirement; goal: 2.5–70 keV) X-rays probing the behavior of matter, radiation and the very fabric of spacetime under the extreme conditions close to the event horizons of black holes, as well as in and around magnetars and neutron stars. The PolSTAR design is based on the technology developed for the Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array (NuSTAR) mission launched in June 2012. In particular, it uses the same X-ray optics, extendable telescope boom, optical bench, and CdZnTe detectors as NuSTAR. The mission has the sensitivity to measure ∼1% linear polarization fractions for X-ray sources with fluxes down to ∼5 mCrab. This paper describes the PolSTAR design as well as the science drivers and the potential science return.
Peroxiredoxin systems Flohé, L. (Leopold); Harris, James R
2007, 2007-09-05, Letnik:
44
eBook, Book
This book contains a broad survey on the peroxiredoxins. It involves almost all groups that contributed significant insights into the emerging field. Coverage discusses the diverse biological roles ...of the new protein family in the context of other antioxidant systems like those based on heme or selenium catalysis. In addition, the book highlights related future perspectives.
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