The skewness of commodity futures returns Fernandez-Perez, Adrian; Frijns, Bart; Fuertes, Ana-Maria ...
Journal of banking & finance,
January 2018, 2018-01-00, 2018, Letnik:
86
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
This article studies the relation between the skewness of commodity futures returns and expected returns. A trading strategy that takes long positions in commodity futures with the most negative skew ...and shorts those with the most positive skew generates significant excess returns that remain after controlling for exposure to well-known risk factors. A tradeable skewness factor explains the cross-section of commodity futures returns beyond exposures to standard risk premia. The impact that skewness has on future returns is explained by investors’ preferences for skewness under cumulative prospect theory and selective hedging practices.
The growing use of antidepressants in recent years has led to their increasing presence in forensic analyses. In this work, microextraction by packed sorbent followed by ultra‐performance liquid ...chromatography with photodiode array detection provided a fast method for determining the antidepressants mirtazapine, venlafaxine, escitalopram, fluoxetine, fluvoxamine, and sertraline in human urine. The microextraction conditions (viz., type of sorbent, number of draw–eject extraction cycles or strokes, sample volume and pH, and type and volume of washing solution and eluent) were optimized by using an experimental design. The ensuing analytical method was validated in terms of linearity (25–1000 ng/mL urine), limit of detection (lower than 7.1 ng/mL), limit of quantification (25 ng/mL), precision (4.7–15.1% as relative standard deviation), and accuracy (80.4–126.1% as mean recovery for four replicate determinations). The proposed method allowed the six target antidepressants to be determined at concentrations from therapeutic to toxic levels. The application to small volumes (300 μL) of urine afforded fast extraction of the analytes and provided results on a par with those of existing clinical and forensic alternatives.
Abstract
Background
The incidence of herpes zoster is up to 9 times higher in immunosuppressed solid organ transplant recipients than in the general population. We investigated the immunogenicity and ...safety of an adjuvanted recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV) in renal transplant (RT) recipients ≥18 years of age receiving daily immunosuppressive therapy.
Methods
In this phase 3, randomized (1:1), observer-blind, multicenter trial, RT recipients were enrolled and received 2 doses of RZV or placebo 1–2 months (M) apart 4–18M posttransplant. Anti–glycoprotein E (gE) antibody concentrations, gE-specific CD4 T-cell frequencies, and vaccine response rates were assessed at 1M post–dose 1, and 1M and 12M post–dose 2. Solicited and unsolicited adverse events (AEs) were recorded for 7 and 30 days after each dose, respectively. Solicited general symptoms and unsolicited AEs were also collected 7 days before first vaccination. Serious AEs (including biopsy-proven allograft rejections) and potential immune-mediated diseases (pIMDs) were recorded up to 12M post–dose 2.
Results
Two hundred sixty-four participants (RZV: 132; placebo: 132) were enrolled between March 2014 and April 2017. gE-specific humoral and cell-mediated immune responses were higher in RZV than placebo recipients across postvaccination time points and persisted above prevaccination baseline 12M post–dose 2. Local AEs were reported more frequently by RZV than placebo recipients. Overall occurrences of renal function changes, rejections, unsolicited AEs, serious AEs, and pIMDs were similar between groups.
Conclusions
RZV was immunogenic in chronically immunosuppressed RT recipients. Immunogenicity persisted through 12M postvaccination. No safety concerns arose.
Clinical Trials Registration
NCT02058589.
The adjuvanted recombinant zoster vaccine was immunogenic in renal transplant recipients receiving daily immunosuppressive treatment. Humoral and cell-mediated immune responses persisted through 1 year postvaccination. Vaccination had no impact on renal function or rejection rate. No safety concerns arose.
The Negative Pricing of the May 2020 WTI Contract Fernandez-Perez, Adrian; Fuertes, Ana-Maria; Miffre, Joëlle
The Energy journal (Cambridge, Mass.),
01/2023, Letnik:
44, Številka:
1
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
This paper sheds light on the negative pricing of the May 2020 WTI futures contract (CLK20) on April 20, 2020. The super contango of early 2020, triggered by COVID-19 lockdowns and geopolitical ...tensions, incentivized cash and carry (C&C) traders to be long CLK20 and short distant contracts, while simultaneously booking storage at Cushing. Our investigation reveals that C&C arbitrage largely contributed to the lack of storage capacity at Cushing in April 2020 and the price crash relates to the reversing trades of many long CLK20 traders without pre-booked storage. Additional aggravating factors included a liquidity crush, staggering margin calls and potential price distortions due to the trade-at-settlement mechanism. The analysis suggests that claims from experts that hold index trackers responsible for the crash are unwarranted: Index trackers did not trigger the negative pricing, nor widen the futures-spot spread by rolling their positions to more distant contracts ahead of maturity.
The sequestration of Plasmodium falciparum infected erythrocytes in the placenta, and the resulting inflammatory response affects maternal and child health. Despite existing information, little is ...known about the direct impact of P. falciparum on the placental barrier formed by trophoblast and villous stroma. This study aimed to assess placental tissue damage caused by P. falciparum in human placental explants (HPEs).
HPEs from chorionic villi obtained of human term placentas (n = 9) from normal pregnancies were exposed to P. falciparum-infected erythrocytes (IE) for 24 h. HPEs were embedded in paraffin blocks and used to study tissue damage through histopathological and histochemical analysis and apoptosis using TUNEL staining. Culture supernatants were collected to measure cytokine and angiogenic factors and to determine LDH activity as a marker of cytotoxicity. A subset of archived human term placenta paraffin-embedded blocks from pregnant women with malaria were used to confirm ex vivo findings.
Plasmodium falciparum-IE significantly damages the trophoblast layer and the villous stroma of the chorionic villi. The increased LDH activity and pathological findings such as syncytial knots, fibrin deposits, infarction, trophoblast detachment, and collagen disorganization supported these findings. The specific damage to the trophoblast and the thickening of the subjacent basal lamina were more pronounced in the ex vivo infection. In contrast, apoptosis was higher in the in vivo infection. This disparity could be attributed to the duration of exposure to the infection, which significantly varied between individuals naturally exposed over time and the 24-h exposure in the ex vivo HPE model.
Exposure to P. falciparum-IE induces a detachment of the syncytiotrophoblast, disorganization of the stroma villi, and an increase in apoptosis, alterations that may be associated with adverse results such as intrauterine growth restriction and low birth weight.
Fear of hazards in commodity futures markets Fernandez-Perez, Adrian; Fuertes, Ana-Maria; Gonzalez-Fernandez, Marcos ...
Journal of banking & finance,
October 2020, 2020-10-00, Letnik:
119
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
We examine the commodity futures pricing role of active attention to weather, disease, geopolitical or economic threats or “hazard fear” as proxied by the volume of internet searches by 149 query ...terms. A long-short portfolio strategy that sorts the cross-section of commodity futures contracts according to a hazard fear signal captures a significant premium. This commodity hazard fear premium reflects compensation for extant fundamental, tail, volatility and liquidity risks factors, but it is not subsumed by them. Exposure to hazard-fear is strongly priced in the cross-section of commodity portfolios. The hazard fear premium exacerbates during periods of adverse sentiment or pessimism in financial markets.
Introduction
Acute bronchiolitis is the main cause of hospitalization in children under 2 years of age, with a regular seasonality, mostly due to the respiratory syncytial virus.
Objectives
To ...describe the epidemiology of bronchiolitis hospitalizations in our center in the last 12 years, and analyze the changes in clinical characteristics, microbiology, and adverse outcomes during the SARS‐CoV‐2 pandemic.
Methods
Observational study including patients admitted for bronchiolitis between April 2010 and December 2021 in a Spanish tertiary paediatric hospital. Relevant demographic, clinical, microbiological, and adverse outcome variables were collected in an anonymized database. The pandemic period (April 2020 to December 2021) was compared to 2010−2015 seasons using appropriate statistical tests.
Results
There were 2138 bronchiolitis admissions, with a mean of 195.6 per year between 2010 and 2019 and a 2−4‐month peak between November and March. In the expected season of 2020, there was a 94.4% reduction of bronchiolitis hospitalizations, with only 11 cases admitted in the first year of the pandemic. Bronchiolitis cases increased from the summer of 2021 during a 6‐month long peak, reaching a total of 171 cases. Length of stay was significantly shorter during the pandemic, but no differences were found in clinical and microbiological characteristics or other adverse outcomes.
Conclusions
The SARS‐CoV‐2 pandemic has modified the seasonality of bronchiolitis hospitalizations, with a dramatic decrease in cases during the expected season of 2020−2021, and an extemporaneous summer−autumn peak in 2021 with longer duration but similar patient characteristics and risk factors.
Objectives
Clinical high‐risk of psychosis (CHRp) samples can be heterogeneous, consisting essentially of people with not only psychotic‐like experiences but also nonspecific symptoms that may ...reflect common mental disorders such as depression, anxiety, or substance abuse pathologies. Few studies have attempted to analyze and understand psychosis risk in relation to both environmental (ER) and psychopathological risk (PsR) factors. This study aimed to determine the clinical risk of psychosis in adolescents.
Methods
A representative sample of 1824 Spanish adolescents from the general population was evaluated using different scales to thoroughly examine the possible interaction of CHRp with various ER and PsR factors. Partial correlations were calculated to assess the relationships between the variables. A series of hierarchical linear regression models were then used to obtain a CHRp predictor model.
Results
The CHRp predictor model indicated that PsR was the most significant determining factor, explaining 22% of the total associated variance of CHRp. However, the ER factor also emerged as a significant predictor of high‐risk psychosis (accounting for 9% of the variance).
Conclusions
A predictive model for CHRp in adolescents was found, in which common psychological problems were presented as more determinant risk factors than ER disruptors. Furthermore, certain transdiagnostic processes, such as psychological inflexibility, may play a central role in the development of mental health problems, including psychosis. Specifying the mechanisms underlying the emergence of CHRp in adolescence is the key to optimizing the focus of preventive therapeutic interventions in these early stages.
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