ABSTRACT The arrival directions of TeV-PeV cosmic rays show weak but significant anisotropies with relative intensities at the level of one per mille. Due to the smallness of the anisotropies, ...quantitative studies require careful disentanglement of detector effects from the observation. We discuss an iterative maximum-likelihood reconstruction that simultaneously fits cosmic-ray anisotropies and detector acceptance. The method does not rely on detector simulations and provides an optimal anisotropy reconstruction for ground-based cosmic-ray observatories located in the middle latitudes. It is particularly well suited to the recovery of the dipole anisotropy, which is a crucial observable for the study of cosmic-ray diffusion in our Galaxy. We also provide general analysis methods for recovering large- and small-scale anisotropies that take into account systematic effects of the observation by ground-based detectors.
We present the first catalog of TeV gamma-ray sources realized with data from the newly completed High Altitude Water Cherenkov Observatory (HAWC). It is the most sensitive wide field-of-view TeV ...telescope currently in operation, with a one-year survey sensitivity of ∼5%-10% of the flux of the Crab Nebula. With an instantaneous field of view >1.5 sr and >90% duty cycle, it continuously surveys and monitors the sky for gamma-ray energies between hundreds of GeV and tens of TeV. HAWC is located in Mexico, at a latitude of 19° N, and was completed in 2015 March. Here, we present the 2HWC catalog, which is the result of the first source search performed with the complete HAWC detector. Realized with 507 days of data, it represents the most sensitive TeV survey to date for such a large fraction of the sky. A total of 39 sources were detected, with an expected number of false detections of 0.5 due to background fluctuation. Out of these sources, 19 are new sources that are not associated with previously known TeV sources (association criteria: <0 5 away). The source list, including the position measurement, spectrum measurement, and uncertainties, is reported, then each source is briefly discussed. Of the 2HWC associated sources, 10 are reported in TeVCat as PWN or SNR: 2 as blazars and the remaining eight as unidentified.
The High Altitude Water Cherenkov (HAWC) Gamma-ray Observatory is an extensive air shower detector operating in central Mexico that has recently completed its first two years of full operations. If ...for a burst like GRB 130427A at a redshift of 0.34 and a high-energy component following a power law with index 1.66, the high-energy component is extended to higher energies with no cutoff other than that from extragalactic background light attenuation, HAWC would observe gamma-rays with a peak energy of ∼300 GeV. This paper reports the results of HAWC observations of 64 gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) detected by Swift and Fermi, including 3 GRBs that were also detected by the Large Area Telescope (Fermi-LAT). An ON/OFF analysis method is employed, searching on the timescale given by the observed light curve at keV-MeV energies and also on extended timescales. For all GRBs and timescales, no statistically significant excess of counts is found and upper limits on the number of gamma-rays and the gamma-ray flux are calculated. GRB 170206A, the third brightest short GRB detected by the Gamma-ray Burst Monitor on board the Fermi satellite (Fermi-GBM) and also detected by the LAT, occurred very close to zenith. The LAT measurements can neither exclude the presence of a synchrotron self-Compton component nor constrain its spectrum. Instead, the HAWC upper limits constrain the expected cutoff in an additional high-energy component to be less than for reasonable assumptions about the energetics and redshift of the burst.
Primordial Black Holes (PBHs) are gravitationally collapsed objects that may have been created by density fluctuations in the early universe and could have arbitrarily small masses down to the Planck ...scale. Hawking showed that due to quantum effects, a black hole has a temperature inversely proportional to its mass and will emit all species of fundamental particles thermally. PBHs with initial masses of ∼5.0×1014g should be expiring in the present epoch with bursts of high-energy particles, including gamma radiation in the GeV–TeV energy range. The Milagro high energy observatory, which operated from 2000 to 2008, is sensitive to the high end of the PBH evaporation gamma-ray spectrum. Due to its large field-of-view, more than 90% duty cycle and sensitivity up to 100TeV gamma rays, the Milagro observatory is well suited to perform a search for PBH bursts. Based on a search on the Milagro data, we report new PBH burst rate density upper limits over a range of PBH observation times. In addition, we report the sensitivity of the Milagro successor, the High Altitude Water Cherenkov (HAWC) observatory, to PBH evaporation events.
The Selecting Therapeutic Targets in Inflammatory Bowel Disease (STRIDE) program was initiated by the International Organization for the Study of Inflammatory Bowel Diseases (IOIBD). It examined ...potential treatment targets for inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) to be used for a "treat-to-target" clinical management strategy using an evidence-based expert consensus process.
A Steering Committee of 28 IBD specialists developed recommendations based on a systematic literature review and expert opinion. Consensus was gained if ≥75% of participants scored the recommendation as 7-10 on a 10-point rating scale (where 10=agree completely).
The group agreed upon 12 recommendations for ulcerative colitis (UC) and Crohn's disease (CD). The agreed target for UC was clinical/patient-reported outcome (PRO) remission (defined as resolution of rectal bleeding and diarrhea/altered bowel habit) and endoscopic remission (defined as a Mayo endoscopic subscore of 0-1). Histological remission was considered as an adjunctive goal. Clinical/PRO remission was also agreed upon as a target for CD and defined as resolution of abdominal pain and diarrhea/altered bowel habit; and endoscopic remission, defined as resolution of ulceration at ileocolonoscopy, or resolution of findings of inflammation on cross-sectional imaging in patients who cannot be adequately assessed with ileocolonoscopy. Biomarker remission (normal C-reactive protein (CRP) and calprotectin) was considered as an adjunctive target.
Evidence- and consensus-based recommendations for selecting the goals for treat-to-target strategies in patients with IBD are made available. Prospective studies are needed to determine how these targets will change disease course and patients' quality of life.
A multidecadal ensemble reforecast database is now available that is approximately consistent with the operational 0000 UTC cycle of the 2012 NOAA Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). The ...reforecast dataset consists of an 11-member ensemble run once each day from 0000 UTC initial conditions. Reforecasts are run to +16 days. As with the operational 2012 GEFS, the reforecast is run at T254L42 resolution (approximately 1/2° grid spacing, 42 levels) for week +1 forecasts and T190L42 (approximately 3/4° grid spacing) for the week +2 forecasts. Reforecasts were initialized with Climate Forecast System Reanalysis initial conditions, and perturbations were generated using the ensemble transform with rescaling technique. Reforecast data are available from 1985 to present.
Reforecast datasets were previously demonstrated to be very valuable for detecting and correcting systematic errors in forecasts, especially forecasts of relatively rare events and longer-lead forecasts. What is novel about this reforecast dataset relative to the first-generation NOAA reforecast is that (i) a modern, currently operational version of the forecast model is used (the previous reforecast used a model version from 1998); (ii) a much larger set of output data has been saved, including variables relevant for precipitation, hydrologic, wind energy, solar energy, severe weather, and tropical cyclone forecasting; and (iii) the archived data are at much higher resolution.
The article describes more about the reforecast configuration and provides a few examples of how this second-generation reforecast data may be used for research and a variety of weather forecast applications.
Abstract
This is the second of a series of two articles reporting the European Crohn’s and Colitis Organisation ECCO evidence-based consensus on the management of adult patients with ulcerative ...colitis UC. The first article is focused on medical management, and the present article addresses medical treatment of acute severe ulcerative colitis ASUC and surgical management of medically refractory UC patients, including preoperative optimisation, surgical strategies, and technical issues. The article provides advice for a variety of common clinical and surgical conditions. Together, the articles represent an update of the evidence-based recommendations of the ECCO for UC.
Previous research has identified links between changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and hurricane intensity. We use climate models to study the possible causes of SST changes in Atlantic and ...Pacific tropical cyclogenesis regions. The observed SST increases in these regions range from 0.32°C to 0.67°C over the 20th century. The 22 climate models examined here suggest that century-timescale SST changes of this magnitude cannot be explained solely by unforced variability of the climate system. We employ model simulations of natural internal variability to make probabilistic estimates of the contribution of external forcing to observed SST changes. For the period 1906-2005, we find an 84% chance that external forcing explains at least 67% of observed SST increases in the two tropical cyclogenesis regions. Model "20th-century" simulations, with external forcing by combined anthropogenic and natural factors, are generally capable of replicating observed SST increases. In experiments in which forcing factors are varied individually rather than jointly, human-caused changes in greenhouse gases are the main driver of the 20th-century SST increases in both tropical cyclogenesis regions.
Species often exhibit regionally specific habitat associations, so habitat association models developed in one region might not be accurate or even appropriate for other regions. Three programs to ...survey wetland‐breeding birds covering (respectively) Great Lakes coastal wetlands, inland Great Lakes wetlands, and the Prairie Pothole Region offer an opportunity to test whether regionally specific models of habitat use by wetland‐obligate breeding birds are transferrable across regions. We first developed independent, regional population density models for four species of wetland‐obligate birds: Pied‐billed Grebe (Podilymbus podiceps), Virginia Rail (Rallus limicola), Sora (Porzana carolina), and American Bittern (Botaurus lentiginosus). We then used adjusted pseudo‐R2 values to compare the amount of variation explained by each model when applied to data collected in each of the three regions. Although certain habitat characteristics, such as emergent vegetation and wetland area, were consistently important across regions, models for each species differed by region—both in variables selected for inclusion and often in the directionality of relationships for common variables—indicating that habitat associations for these species are regionally specific. When we applied a model developed in one region to data collected in another region, we found that explanatory power was reduced in most (71%) models. Therefore, we suggest that ecological analyses should emphasize regionally specific habitat association models whenever possible. Nonetheless, models created from inland Great Lakes wetland data had higher median explanatory power when applied to other regions, and the amount of explanatory power lost by other transferred models was relatively small. Thus, while regionally specific habitat association models are preferable, in the absence of reliable regional data, habitat association models developed in one region may be applied to another region, but the results need to be cautiously interpreted. Additionally, we found that median explanatory power was higher when local‐scale habitat characteristics were included in the models, indicating that regionally specific models should ideally be based on a combination of local‐ and landscape‐scale habitat characteristics. Conservation practitioners can leverage such regionally specific models and associated monitoring data to help prioritize areas for management activities that contribute to regional conservation efforts.
PDF
