The Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) is a 3D long-range atmospheric chemistry-transport model with a horizontal domain covering the Northern Hemisphere. For the AQMEII (Air Quality Modelling ...Evaluation International Initiative) inter-comparison exercise, the model was set up with two two-way nested domains simultaneously – one covering Europe and one covering North America. In this paper, the model configuration used in AQMEII will be described, including a discussion of model results and evaluation for the year 2006 against available measurements in Europe for different chemical species. The evaluation of DEHM for Europe shows that the model gives satisfying results for species such as ozone, nitrogen-dioxide, sulphur-dioxide and secondary inorganic aerosols. The evaluation also points to certain processes where DEHM can be improved, such as biogenic emissions of isoprene, mass closure for particulate matter, wet deposition, and description of vertical mixing during winter. Furthermore, special attention is given to the intercontinental transport of air pollution between North America (NA) and Europe (EU). We estimate the contributions to the total air pollution levels at continental scale from the anthropogenic emissions in the two areas, with a focus on ozone and particulate matter using a tagging method, taking into account the non-linear effects of atmospheric chemistry. We conclude that for this specific year, the intercontinental transport between NA and EU is small for the annual or seasonal mean values – for ozone the contributions are typically around 3% (∼1 ppb) from NA to EU and around 1% (∼0.3 ppb) from EU to NA. For particles the contributions from NA to EU is around 0.9% (∼0.05 μg m−3) and from EU to NA around 1.4% (∼0.05 μg m−3).
► We model the air pollution in North America and Europe for the year 2006 using DEHM. ► We evaluate the model results against measurements for Europe for all available species. ► The evaluation leads to conclusions on where to improve the model. ► We calculated the intercontinental transport of air pollution between North America and Europe. ► We found that the exchange of air pollution between the two continents is small on the annual basis.
An integrated model system, EVA (Economic Valuation of Air pollution), based on the impact-pathway chain has been developed to assess the health-related economic externalities of air pollution ...resulting from specific emission sources or sectors. The model system can be used to support policy-making with respect to emission control. In this study, we apply the EVA system to Europe, and perform a more detailed assessment of past, present, and future health-cost externalities of the total air pollution levels in Europe (including both natural and anthropogenic sources), represented by the years 2000, 2007, 2011, and 2020. We also assess the contribution to the health-related external costs from international ship traffic with special attention to the international ship traffic in the Baltic and North seas, since special regulatory actions on sulfur emissions, called SECA (sulfur emission control area), have been introduced in these areas. We conclude that, despite efficient regulatory actions in Europe in recent decades, air pollution still constitutes a serious problem for human health. Hence the related external costs are considerable. The total health-related external costs for the whole of Europe are estimated at 803 bn euros yr−1 for the year 2000, decreasing to 537 bn euros yr−1 in the year 2020. We estimate the total number of premature deaths in Europe in the year 2000 due to air pollution to be around 680 000 yr−1, decreasing to approximately 450 000 in the year 2020. The contribution from international ship traffic in the Northern Hemisphere was estimated to 7% of the total health-related external costs in Europe in the year 2000, increasing to 12% in the year 2020. In contrast, the contribution from international ship traffic in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea decreases 36% due to the regulatory efforts of reducing sulfur emissions from ship traffic in SECA. Introducing this regulatory instrument for all international ship traffic in the Northern Hemisphere, or at least in areas close to Europe, would have a significant positive impact on human health in Europe.
A local-scale Gaussian dispersion-deposition model (OML-DEP) has been coupled to a regional chemistry-transport model (DEHM with a resolution of approximately 6 km × 6 km over Denmark) in the Danish ...Ammonia Modelling System, DAMOS. Thereby, it has been possible to model the distribution of ammonia concentrations and depositions on a spatial resolution down to 400 m × 400 m for selected areas in Denmark. DAMOS has been validated against measured concentrations from the dense measuring network covering Denmark. Here measured data from 21 sites are included and the validation period covers 2–5 years within the period 2005–2009. A standard time series analysis (using statistic parameters like correlation and bias) shows that the coupled model system captures the measured time series better than the regional- scale model alone. However, our study also shows that about 50% of the modelled concentration level at a given location originates from non-local emission sources. The local-scale model covers a domain of 16 km × 16 km, and of the locally released ammonia (NH3) within this domain, our simulations at five sites show that 14–27% of the locally (within 16 km × 16 km) emitted NH3 also deposits locally. These results underline the importance of including both high-resolution local-scale modelling of NH3 as well as the regional-scale component described by the regional model. The DAMOS system can be used as a tool in environmental management in relation to assessments of total nitrogen load of sensitive nature areas in intense agricultural regions. However, high spatio-temporal resolution in input parameters like NH3 emissions and land-use data is required.
Deriving a parameterisation of ammonia emissions for use in chemistry-transport models (CTMs) is a complex problem as the emission varies locally as a result of local climate and local agricultural ...management. In current CTMs such factors are generally not taken into account. This paper demonstrates how local climate and local management can be accounted for in CTMs by applying a modular approach for deriving data as input to a dynamic ammonia emission model for Europe. Default data are obtained from information in the RAINS system, and it is demonstrated how this dynamic emission model based on these input data improves the NH3 calculations in a CTM model when the results are compared with calculations obtained by traditional methods in emission handling. It is also shown how input data can be modified over a specific target region resulting in even further improvement in performance over this domain. The model code and the obtained default values for the modelling experiments are available as supplementary information to this article for use by the modelling community on similar terms as the EMEP CTM model: the GPL licencse v3.
Abstract Pompe disease is a rare neuromuscular disorder caused by deficiency of acid α-glucosidase. Treatment with recombinant human α-glucosidase recently received marketing approval based on ...prolonged survival of affected infants. The current open-label study was performed to evaluate the response in older children (age 5.9–15.2 years). The five patients that we studied had limb-girdle muscle weakness and three of them also had decreased pulmonary function in upright and supine position. They received 20-mg/kg recombinant human α-glucosidase every two weeks over a 3-year period. No infusion-associated reactions were observed. Pulmonary function remained stable ( n = 4) or improved slightly ( n = 1). Muscle strength increased. Only one patient approached the normal range. Patients obtained higher scores on the Quick Motor Function Test. None of the patients deteriorated. Follow-up data of two unmatched historical cohorts of adults and children with Pompe disease were used for comparison. They showed an average decline in pulmonary function of 1.6% and 5% per year. Data on muscle strength and function of untreated children were not available. Further studies are required.
International initiatives have successfully brought down the emissions, and hence also the related negative impacts on environment and human health, from shipping in Emission Control Areas (ECAs). ...However, the question remains as to whether increased shipping in the future will counteract these emission reductions. The overall goal of this study is to provide an up-to-date view on future ship emissions and provide a holistic view on atmospheric pollutants and their contribution to air quality in the Nordic (and Arctic) area. The first step has been to set up new and detailed scenarios for the potential developments in global shipping emissions, including different regulations and new routes in the Arctic. The scenarios include a Baseline scenario and two additional SOx Emission Control Areas (SECAs) and heavy fuel oil (HFO) ban scenarios. All three scenarios are calculated in two variants involving Business-As-Usual (BAU) and High-Growth (HiG) traffic scenarios. Additionally a Polar route scenario is included with new ship traffic routes in the future Arctic with less sea ice. This has been combined with existing Current Legislation scenarios for the land-based emissions (ECLIPSE V5a) and used as input for two Nordic chemistry transport models (DEHM and MATCH). Thereby, the current (2015) and future (2030, 2050) air pollution levels and the contribution from shipping have been simulated for the Nordic and Arctic areas. Population exposure and the number of premature deaths attributable to air pollution in the Nordic area have thereafter been assessed by using the health assessment model EVA (Economic Valuation of Air pollution). It is estimated that within the Nordic region approximately 9900 persons died prematurely due to air pollution in 2015 (corresponding to approximately 37 premature deaths for every 100 000 inhabitants). When including the projected development in both shipping and land-based emissions, this number is estimated to decrease to approximately 7900 in 2050. Shipping alone is associated with about 850 premature deaths during present-day conditions (as a mean over the two models), decreasing to approximately 600 cases in the 2050 BAU scenario. Introducing a HFO ban has the potential to lower the number of cases associated with emissions from shipping to approximately 550 in 2050, while the SECA scenario has a smaller impact. The “worst-case” scenario of no additional regulation of shipping emissions combined with a high growth in the shipping traffic will, on the other hand, lead to a small increase in the relative impact of shipping, and the number of premature deaths related to shipping is in that scenario projected to be around 900 in 2050. This scenario also leads to increased deposition of nitrogen and black carbon in the Arctic, with potential impacts on environment and climate.
The ecological status of the Baltic Sea has for many years been affected by the high input of both waterborne and airborne nutrients. The focus here is on the airborne input of nitrogen (N) and the ...projected changes in this input, assuming the new National Emission Ceilings directive (NEC-II), currently under negotiation in the EU, is fulfilled towards the year 2020. With a set of scenario simulations, the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) has been used to estimate the development in nitrogen deposition based on present day meteorology combined with present day (2007) or future (2020) anthropogenic emissions. Applying a so-called tagging method in the DEHM model, the contribution from ship traffic and from each of the nine countries with coastlines to the Baltic Sea has been assessed. The annual deposition to the Baltic Sea is estimated to 203 k tonnes N for the present day scenario (2007) and 165 k tonnes N in the 2020 scenario, giving a projected reduction of 38 k tonnes N in the annual load in 2020. This equals a decline in nitrogen deposition of 19%. The results from 20 model runs using the tagging method show that of the total nitrogen deposition in 2007, 52% came from emissions within the bordering countries. By 2020, this is projected to decrease to 48%. For some countries the projected decrease in nitrogen deposition arising from the implementation of the NEC-II directive will contribute significantly to compliance with the reductions agreed on in the provisional reduction targets of the Baltic Sea Action Plan. This underlines the importance of including projections like the current in future updates of the Baltic Sea Action Plan.
Abstract Background and objective Pompe disease is an inherited metabolic disorder caused by deficiency of acid α-glucosidase. All affected neonates have a severe hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, leading ...to cardiac failure and death within the first year of life. We investigated the presence and extent of cardiac involvement in children and adults with Pompe disease with the common c.−32-13T>G genotype to determine the usefulness of cardiac screening in these patients with relatively ‘milder’ phenotypes. Methods Cardiac dimensions and function were evaluated through echocardiography, electrocardiography and Holter monitoring. The total group comprised 68 patients with Pompe disease, of whom 22 patients had disease onset before the age of 18. Results Two patients (3%) had cardiac abnormalities possibly related to Pompe disease: Electrocardiography showed a Wolff–Parkinson–White pattern in an 8-year-old girl, and one severely affected adult patient had a mild hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. This hypertrophy did not change during treatment with recombinant human α-glucosidase. In addition, four adult patients showed minor cardiac abnormalities which did not exceed the prevalence in the general population and were attributed to advanced age, hypertension or pre-existing cardiac pathology unrelated to Pompe disease. Conclusions Cardiac involvement is rare in Pompe patients with the common c.−32-13T>G genotype. The younger patients were not more frequently affected than the adults. Electrocardiographic evaluation appears to be appropriate as initial screening tool. Extensive cardiac screening seems indicated only if the electrocardiogram is abnormal or the patient has a history of cardiac disease.
BACKGROUNDAir pollution has been linked to mortality, but there are few studies examining the association with different exposure time windows spanning across several decades. The evidence for the ...effects of green space and mortality is contradictory.OBJECTIVEWe investigated all-cause mortality in relation to exposure to particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10), black carbon (BC), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ozone (O3) and greenness (normalized difference vegetation index - NDVI) across different exposure time windows.METHODSThe exposure assessment was based on a combination of the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model and the Urban Background Model for the years 1990, 2000 and 2010. The analysis included a complete case dataset with 9,135 participants from the third Respiratory Health in Northern Europe study (RHINE III), aged 40-65 years in 2010, with mortality follow-up to 2021. We performed Cox proportional hazard models, adjusting for potential confounders.RESULTSAltogether, 327 (3.6 %) persons died in the period 2010-2021. Increased exposures in 1990 of PM2.5, PM10, BC and NO2 were associated with increased all-cause mortality hazard ratios of 1.40 (95 % CI1.04-1.87 per 5 μg/m3), 1.33 (95 % CI: 1.02-1.74 per 10 μg/m3), 1.16 (95 % CI: 0.98-1.38 per 0.4 μg/m3) and 1.17 (95 % CI: 0.92-1.50 per 10 μg/m3), respectively. No statistically significant associations were observed between air pollution and mortality in other time windows. O3 showed an inverse association with mortality, while no association was observed between greenness and mortality. Adjusting for NDVI increased the hazard ratios for PM2.5, PM10, BC and NO2 exposures in 1990. We did not find significant interactions between greenness and air pollution metrics.CONCLUSIONLong term exposure to even low levels of air pollution is associated with mortality. Opening up for a long latency period, our findings indicate that air pollution exposures over time may be even more harmful than anticipated.
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