Inverse probability weighting can be used to estimate the average treatment effect in propensity score analysis. When there is lack of overlap in the propensity score distributions between the ...treatment groups under comparison, some weights may be excessively large, causing numerical instability and bias in point and variance estimation. We study a class of modified inverse probability weighting estimators that can be used to avoid this problem. These weights cause the estimand to deviate from the average treatment effect. We provide some justification for this deviation from the perspective of treatment effect discovery. We show that when lack of overlap occurs, the modified weights can achieve substantial gains in statistical power compared with inverse probability weighting and other propensity score methods. We develop analytical variance estimates that properly adjust for the sampling variability of the estimated propensity scores, and augment the modified inverse probability weighting estimator with outcome models for improved efficiency, a property that resembles double robustness. Results from extensive simulations and a real data application support our conclusions. The proposed methodology is implemented in R package PSW.
The US Food and Drug Administration currently accepts halving of glomerular filtration rate (GFR), assessed as doubling of serum creatinine level, as a surrogate end point for the development of ...kidney failure in clinical trials of kidney disease progression. A doubling of serum creatinine level generally is a late event in chronic kidney disease (CKD); thus, there is great interest in considering alternative end points for clinical trials to shorten their duration, reduce sample size, and extend their conduct to patients with earlier stages of CKD. However, the relationship between lesser declines in GFR and the subsequent development of kidney failure has not been well characterized. The National Kidney Foundation and Food and Drug Administration sponsored a scientific workshop to critically examine available data to determine whether alternative GFR-based end points have sufficiently strong relationships with important clinical outcomes of CKD to be used in clinical trials. Based on a series of meta-analyses of cohorts and clinical trials and simulations of trial designs and analytic methods, the workshop concluded that a confirmed decline in estimated GFR of 30% over 2 to 3 years may be an acceptable surrogate end point in some circumstances, but the pattern of treatment effects on GFR must be examined, specifically acute effects on estimated GFR. An estimated GFR decline of 40% may be more broadly acceptable than a 30% decline across a wider range of baseline GFRs and patterns of treatment effects on GFR. However, there are other circumstances in which these end points could lead to a reduction in statistical power or erroneous conclusions regarding benefits or harms of interventions. We encourage careful consideration of these alternative end points in the design of future clinical trials.
Current equations for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) that use serum creatinine or cystatin C incorporate age, sex, and race to estimate measured GFR. However, race in eGFR equations is a ...social and not a biologic construct.
We developed new eGFR equations without race using data from two development data sets: 10 studies (8254 participants, 31.5% Black) for serum creatinine and 13 studies (5352 participants, 39.7% Black) for both serum creatinine and cystatin C. In a validation data set of 12 studies (4050 participants, 14.3% Black), we compared the accuracy of new eGFR equations to measured GFR. We projected the prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and GFR stages in a sample of U.S. adults, using current and new equations.
In the validation data set, the current creatinine equation that uses age, sex, and race overestimated measured GFR in Blacks (median, 3.7 ml per minute per 1.73 m
of body-surface area; 95% confidence interval CI, 1.8 to 5.4) and to a lesser degree in non-Blacks (median, 0.5 ml per minute per 1.73 m
; 95% CI, 0.0 to 0.9). When the adjustment for Black race was omitted from the current eGFR equation, measured GFR in Blacks was underestimated (median, 7.1 ml per minute per 1.73 m
; 95% CI, 5.9 to 8.8). A new equation using age and sex and omitting race underestimated measured GFR in Blacks (median, 3.6 ml per minute per 1.73 m
; 95% CI, 1.8 to 5.5) and overestimated measured GFR in non-Blacks (median, 3.9 ml per minute per 1.73 m
; 95% CI, 3.4 to 4.4). For all equations, 85% or more of the eGFRs for Blacks and non-Blacks were within 30% of measured GFR. New creatinine-cystatin C equations without race were more accurate than new creatinine equations, with smaller differences between race groups. As compared with the current creatinine equation, the new creatinine equations, but not the new creatinine-cystatin C equations, increased population estimates of CKD prevalence among Blacks and yielded similar or lower prevalence among non-Blacks.
New eGFR equations that incorporate creatinine and cystatin C but omit race are more accurate and led to smaller differences between Black participants and non-Black participants than new equations without race with either creatinine or cystatin C alone. (Funded by the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases.).
Among patients in the United States with chronic kidney disease, black patients are at increased risk for end-stage renal disease, as compared with white patients.
In two studies, we examined the ...effects of variants in the gene encoding apolipoprotein L1 (APOL1) on the progression of chronic kidney disease. In the African American Study of Kidney Disease and Hypertension (AASK), we evaluated 693 black patients with chronic kidney disease attributed to hypertension. In the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) study, we evaluated 2955 white patients and black patients with chronic kidney disease (46% of whom had diabetes) according to whether they had 2 copies of high-risk APOL1 variants (APOL1 high-risk group) or 0 or 1 copy (APOL1 low-risk group). In the AASK study, the primary outcome was a composite of end-stage renal disease or a doubling of the serum creatinine level. In the CRIC study, the primary outcomes were the slope in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and the composite of end-stage renal disease or a reduction of 50% in the eGFR from baseline.
In the AASK study, the primary outcome occurred in 58.1% of the patients in the APOL1 high-risk group and in 36.6% of those in the APOL1 low-risk group (hazard ratio in the high-risk group, 1.88; P<0.001). There was no interaction between APOL1 status and trial interventions or the presence of baseline proteinuria. In the CRIC study, black patients in the APOL1 high-risk group had a more rapid decline in the eGFR and a higher risk of the composite renal outcome than did white patients, among those with diabetes and those without diabetes (P<0.001 for all comparisons).
Renal risk variants in APOL1 were associated with the higher rates of end-stage renal disease and progression of chronic kidney disease that were observed in black patients as compared with white patients, regardless of diabetes status. (Funded by the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases and others.).
Transformation of US health care from volume to value requires meaningful quantification of costs and outcomes at the level of individual patients.
To measure the association of a value-driven ...outcomes tool that allocates costs of care and quality measures to individual patient encounters with cost reduction and health outcome optimization.
Uncontrolled, pre-post, longitudinal, observational study measuring quality and outcomes relative to cost from 2012 to 2016 at University of Utah Health Care. Clinical improvement projects included total hip and knee joint replacement, hospitalist laboratory utilization, and management of sepsis.
Physicians were given access to a tool with information about outcomes, costs (not charges), and variation and partnered with process improvement experts.
Total and component inpatient and outpatient direct costs across departments; cost variability for Medicare severity diagnosis related groups measured as coefficient of variation (CV); and care costs and composite quality indexes.
From July 1, 2014, to June 30, 2015, there were 1.7 million total patient visits, including 34 000 inpatient discharges. Professional costs accounted for 24.3% of total costs for inpatient episodes ($114.4 million of $470.4 million) and 41.9% of total costs for outpatient visits ($231.7 million of $553.1 million). For Medicare severity diagnosis related groups with the highest total direct costs, cost variability was highest for postoperative infection (CV = 1.71) and sepsis (CV = 1.37) and among the lowest for organ transplantation (CV ≤ 0.43). For total joint replacement, a composite quality index was 54% at baseline (n = 233 encounters) and 80% 1 year into the implementation (n = 188 encounters) (absolute change, 26%; 95% CI, 18%-35%; P < .001). Compared with the baseline year, mean direct costs were 7% lower in the implementation year (95% CI, 3%-11%; P < .001) and 11% lower in the postimplementation year (95% CI, 7%-14%; P < .001). The hospitalist laboratory testing mean cost per day was $138 (median IQR, $113 $79-160; n = 2034 encounters) at baseline and $123 (median IQR, $99 $66-147; n = 4276 encounters) in the evaluation period (mean difference, -$15; 95% CI, -$19 to -$11; P < .001), with no significant change in mean length of stay. For a pilot sepsis intervention, the mean time to anti-infective administration following fulfillment of systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria in patients with infection was 7.8 hours (median IQR, 3.4 0.8-7.8 hours; n = 29 encounters) at baseline and 3.6 hours (median IQR, 2.2 1.0-4.5 hours; n = 76 encounters) in the evaluation period (mean difference, -4.1 hours; 95% CI, -9.9 to -1.0 hours; P = .02).
Implementation of a multifaceted value-driven outcomes tool to identify high variability in costs and outcomes in a large single health care system was associated with reduced costs and improved quality for 3 selected clinical projects. There may be benefit for individual physicians to understand actual care costs (not charges) and outcomes achieved for individual patients with defined clinical conditions.
Background The traditional paradigm of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) progression in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a steady nearly linear decline over time. We describe individual ...GFR progression trajectories over 12 years of follow-up in participants in the African American Study of Kidney Disease and Hypertension (AASK). Study Design Longitudinal observational study. Setting & Participants 846 AASK patients with at least 3 years of follow-up and 8 GFR estimates. Measurements Longitudinal GFR estimates from creatinine-based equations. Predictors Patient demographic and clinical features. Outcomes Probability of a nonlinear trajectory and probability of a period of nonprogression calculated for each patient from a Bayesian model of individual estimated GFR (eGFR) trajectories. Results 352 (41.6%) patients showed a >0.9 probability of having either a nonlinear trajectory or a prolonged nonprogression period; in 559 (66.1%), the probability was >0.5. Baseline eGFR >40 mL/min/1.73 m2 and urine protein-creatinine ratio <0.22 g/g were associated with a higher likelihood of a nonprogression period. 74 patients (8.7%) had both a substantial period of stable or increasing eGFR and a substantial period of rapid eGFR decrease. Limitations Clinical trial population; absence of direct GFR measurements. Conclusions In contrast to the traditional paradigm of steady GFR progression over time, many patients with CKD have a nonlinear GFR trajectory or a prolonged period of nonprogression. These findings highlight the possibility that stable kidney disease progression can accelerate and, conversely, provide hope that CKD need not be relentlessly progressive. These results should encourage researchers to identify time-dependent factors associated with periods of nonprogression and other desirable trajectories.
Background It is controversial whether proteinuria is a valid surrogate end point for randomized trials in chronic kidney disease. Study Design Meta-analysis of individual patient-level data. Setting ...& Population Individual patient data for 9,008 patients from 32 randomized trials evaluating 5 intervention types. Selection Criteria for Studies Randomized controlled trials of kidney disease progression until 2007 with measurements of proteinuria both at baseline and during the first year of follow-up, with at least 1 further year of follow-up for the clinical outcome. Predictor Early change in proteinuria. Outcomes Doubling of serum creatinine level, end-stage renal disease, or death. Results Early decline in proteinuria was associated with lower risk of the clinical outcome (pooled HR, 0.74 per 50% reduction in proteinuria); this association was stronger at higher levels of baseline proteinuria. Pooled estimates for the proportion of treatment effect on the clinical outcome explained by early decline in proteinuria ranged from −7.0% (95% CI, −40.6% to 26.7%) to 43.9% (95% CI, 25.3% to 62.6%) across 5 intervention types. The direction of the pooled treatment effects on early change in proteinuria agreed with the direction of the treatment effect on the clinical outcome for all 5 intervention types, with the magnitudes of the pooled treatment effects on the 2 end points agreeing for 4 of the 5 intervention types. The pooled treatment effects on both end points were simultaneously stronger at higher levels of proteinuria. However, statistical power was insufficient to determine whether differences in treatment effects on the clinical outcome corresponded to differences in treatment effects on proteinuria between individual studies. Limitations Limited variety of interventions tested and low statistical power for many chronic kidney disease clinical trials. Conclusions These results provide new evidence supporting the use of an early reduction in proteinuria as a surrogate end point, but do not provide sufficient evidence to establish its validity in all settings.
Surrogate end points are needed to assess whether treatments are effective in the early stages of CKD. GFR decline leads to kidney failure, but regulators have not approved using differences in the ...change in GFR from the beginning to the end of a randomized, controlled trial as an end point in CKD because it is not clear whether small changes in the GFR slope will translate to clinical benefits.
To assess the use of GFR slope as a surrogate end point for CKD progression, we performed a meta-analysis of 47 RCTs that tested 12 interventions in 60,620 subjects. We estimated treatment effects on GFR slope (mean difference in GFR slope between the randomized groups), for the total slope starting at baseline, chronic slope starting at 3 months after randomization, and on the clinical end point (doubling of serum creatinine, GFR<15 ml/min per 1.73 m
, or ESKD) for each study. We used Bayesian mixed-effects analyses to describe the association of treatment effects on GFR slope with the clinical end point and to test how well the GFR slope predicts a treatment's effect on the clinical end point.
Across all studies, the treatment effect on 3-year total GFR slope (median
=0.97; 95% Bayesian credible interval BCI, 0.78 to 1.00) and on the chronic slope (
0.96; 95% BCI, 0.63 to 1.00) accurately predicted treatment effects on the clinical end point. With a sufficient sample size, a treatment effect of 0.75 ml/min per 1.73 m
/yr or greater on total slope over 3 years or chronic slope predicts a clinical benefit on CKD progress with at least 96% probability.
With large enough sample sizes, GFR slope may be a viable surrogate for clinical end points in CKD RCTs.
Estimates of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) that are based on serum creatinine are routinely used; however, they are imprecise, potentially leading to the overdiagnosis of chronic kidney disease. ...Cystatin C is an alternative filtration marker for estimating GFR.
Using cross-sectional analyses, we developed estimating equations based on cystatin C alone and in combination with creatinine in diverse populations totaling 5352 participants from 13 studies. These equations were then validated in 1119 participants from 5 different studies in which GFR had been measured. Cystatin and creatinine assays were traceable to primary reference materials.
Mean measured GFRs were 68 and 70 ml per minute per 1.73 m(2) of body-surface area in the development and validation data sets, respectively. In the validation data set, the creatinine-cystatin C equation performed better than equations that used creatinine or cystatin C alone. Bias was similar among the three equations, with a median difference between measured and estimated GFR of 3.9 ml per minute per 1.73 m(2) with the combined equation, as compared with 3.7 and 3.4 ml per minute per 1.73 m(2) with the creatinine equation and the cystatin C equation (P=0.07 and P=0.05), respectively. Precision was improved with the combined equation (interquartile range of the difference, 13.4 vs. 15.4 and 16.4 ml per minute per 1.73 m(2), respectively P=0.001 and P<0.001), and the results were more accurate (percentage of estimates that were >30% of measured GFR, 8.5 vs. 12.8 and 14.1, respectively P<0.001 for both comparisons). In participants whose estimated GFR based on creatinine was 45 to 74 ml per minute per 1.73 m(2), the combined equation improved the classification of measured GFR as either less than 60 ml per minute per 1.73 m(2) or greater than or equal to 60 ml per minute per 1.73 m(2) (net reclassification index, 19.4% P<0.001) and correctly reclassified 16.9% of those with an estimated GFR of 45 to 59 ml per minute per 1.73 m(2) as having a GFR of 60 ml or higher per minute per 1.73 m(2).
The combined creatinine-cystatin C equation performed better than equations based on either of these markers alone and may be useful as a confirmatory test for chronic kidney disease. (Funded by the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases.).
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