Over the last decades, the natural disturbance is increasingly putting pressure on European forests. Shifts in disturbance regimes may compromise forest functioning and the continuous provisioning of ...ecosystem services to society, including their climate change mitigation potential. Although forests are central to many European policies, we lack the long‐term empirical data needed for thoroughly understanding disturbance dynamics, modeling them, and developing adaptive management strategies. Here, we present a unique database of >170,000 records of ground‐based natural disturbance observations in European forests from 1950 to 2019. Reported data confirm a significant increase in forest disturbance in 34 European countries, causing on an average of 43.8 million m3 of disturbed timber volume per year over the 70‐year study period. This value is likely a conservative estimate due to under‐reporting, especially of small‐scale disturbances. We used machine learning techniques for assessing the magnitude of unreported disturbances, which are estimated to be between 8.6 and 18.3 million m3/year. In the last 20 years, disturbances on average accounted for 16% of the mean annual harvest in Europe. Wind was the most important disturbance agent over the study period (46% of total damage), followed by fire (24%) and bark beetles (17%). Bark beetle disturbance doubled its share of the total damage in the last 20 years. Forest disturbances can profoundly impact ecosystem services (e.g., climate change mitigation), affect regional forest resource provisioning and consequently disrupt long‐term management planning objectives and timber markets. We conclude that adaptation to changing disturbance regimes must be placed at the core of the European forest management and policy debate. Furthermore, a coherent and homogeneous monitoring system of natural disturbances is urgently needed in Europe, to better observe and respond to the ongoing changes in forest disturbance regimes.
Shifts in forest disturbance regimes may compromise the continuous provisioning of ecosystem services to society. Although forests in Europe are central to many policies, empirical data for understanding disturbance dynamics are lacking. We present a unique database of >170,000 ground‐based natural disturbance records in European forests from 1950 to 2019. Disturbances significantly increase over the study period, damaging on average 43.8 million m3 of timber volume per year. This is likely a conservative estimate due to under‐reporting. We estimated the magnitude of unreported damages to be between 8.6 and 18.3 million m3/year.
Land‐based climate mitigation measures have gained significant attention and importance in public and private sector climate policies. Building on previous studies, we refine and update the ...mitigation potentials for 20 land‐based measures in >200 countries and five regions, comparing “bottom‐up” sectoral estimates with integrated assessment models (IAMs). We also assess implementation feasibility at the country level. Cost‐effective (available up to $100/tCO2eq) land‐based mitigation is 8–13.8 GtCO2eq yr−1 between 2020 and 2050, with the bottom end of this range representing the IAM median and the upper end representing the sectoral estimate. The cost‐effective sectoral estimate is about 40% of available technical potential and is in line with achieving a 1.5°C pathway in 2050. Compared to technical potentials, cost‐effective estimates represent a more realistic and actionable target for policy. The cost‐effective potential is approximately 50% from forests and other ecosystems, 35% from agriculture, and 15% from demand‐side measures. The potential varies sixfold across the five regions assessed (0.75–4.8 GtCO2eq yr−1) and the top 15 countries account for about 60% of the global potential. Protection of forests and other ecosystems and demand‐side measures present particularly high mitigation efficiency, high provision of co‐benefits, and relatively lower costs. The feasibility assessment suggests that governance, economic investment, and socio‐cultural conditions influence the likelihood that land‐based mitigation potentials are realized. A substantial portion of potential (80%) is in developing countries and LDCs, where feasibility barriers are of greatest concern. Assisting countries to overcome barriers may result in significant quantities of near‐term, low‐cost mitigation while locally achieving important climate adaptation and development benefits. Opportunities among countries vary widely depending on types of land‐based measures available, their potential co‐benefits and risks, and their feasibility. Enhanced investments and country‐specific plans that accommodate this complexity are urgently needed to realize the large global potential from improved land stewardship.
We refine and update the mitigation potentials for 20 land‐based measures in >200 countries and five regions, comparing “bottom‐up” sectoral estimates with integrated assessment models (IAMs). The likely range of cost‐effective (available up to $100/tCO2eq) land‐based mitigation potential is 8–13.8 GtCO2eq yr−1 between 2020 and 2050. Mitigation potential varies sixfold across the five regions assessed (0.75–4.8 GtCO2eq yr−1) and the top 15 countries account for about 60% of the global potential. Opportunities among countries vary widely depending on types of land‐based measures available, their potential co‐benefits and risks, and their feasibility.
Harvested wood products (HWP) may contribute to climate change mitigation by storing carbon and by replacing energy‐intensive materials and fossil energy, reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. ...However, when assessing improved HWP utilisations, interactions between wood use pathways, the carbon stock dynamics, and the resulting effect on the GHG balance are still not well‐understood. This research aims to assess the carbon sequestration effects of alternative wood product utilisations in four European Union (EU) countries. We conducted a material flow analysis of wood uses in France, Finland, Germany, and Spain for 2017 taking into account national production, imports, and exports. Then, we quantified the future dynamics of carbon stock in the HWP through time, assuming the same as in 2017 input and ignoring the forest sink. We then ran six alternative scenarios: two energy‐focused (Energy, Energy+), two material‐focused (Cascading, Material), one with extended half‐life of the wood products (HL) and one as business as usual. For the simulation period (2020–2050), the material scenario leads to the highest mitigation benefits with a cumulative HWP net CO2 removals of −502 Mt CO2 for Germany, −290 Mt CO2 for France, −118 Mt CO2 for Spain, and −116 Mt CO2 for Finland over the 30 years. The Energy+ scenario with an increase in wood usage for bioenergy generates a loss of the HWP pool of 351, 80, 77, and 6 Mt CO2 for the same countries, not accounting for energy substitution effects. Overall, our results suggest that the HWP carbon stock can be increased in the short‐medium term by prioritizing the use of wood for material purposes, while maintaining constant harvest. The HWP mitigation potential differed greatly according to national wood industry characteristics. Hence, tailoring the HWP mitigation strategies to the specific characteristics of the national wood chain would enhance the HWP climate benefits.
In this research, we assessed the carbon sequestration impact of different wood product uses in four EU countries (France, Finland, Germany, Spain). Overall, our results suggest that the harvested wood product (HWP) carbon stock can be increased in the short‐medium term by prioritising the use of wood for material purposes while maintaining constant harvest. The HWP mitigation potential differed greatly according to national wood industry characteristics. Hence, tailoring the HWP mitigation strategies to the specific characteristics of the national wood chain would enhance the HWP climate benefits.
This paper, based on a literature review, presents a quantitative overview of the role of natural disturbances in European forests from 1850 to 2000. Such an overview provides a basis for modelling ...the possible impacts of climate change and enables one to assess trends in disturbance regimes in different countries and/or periods. Over the period 1950–2000, an annual average of 35 million m3 wood was damaged by disturbances; there was much variation between years. Storms were responsible for 53% of the total damage, fire for 16%, snow for 3% and other abiotic causes for 5%. Biotic factors caused 16% of the damage, and half of this was caused by bark beetles. For 7% of the damage, no cause was given or there was a combination of causes. The 35 million m3 of damage is about 8.1% of the total fellings in Europe and about 0.15% of the total volume of growing stock. Over the period 1961–2000, the average annual area of forest fires was 213 000 ha, which is 0.15% of the total forest area in Europe. Most types of damage seem to be increasing. This is partly an artefact of the improved availability of information. The most likely explanations for an increase in damage from disturbances are changes in forest management and resulting changes in the condition of the forest. Forest area, average volume of growing stock and average stand age have increased considerably, making the forest more vulnerable and increasing the resources that can be damaged. Since forest resources are expected to continue to increase, it is likely that damage from disturbances will also increase in future.
Ceccherini et al.1 quantify change using map pixel counts, rather than using a statistically rigorous sampling approach that is more appropriate for the estimation of area change7. ...although ...Ceccherini et al.1 considered false positives (incorrect detection of forest loss) in their sample analyses, they did not consider false negatives (undetected forest loss). ...analyses, which address both omission and commission errors, offer accurate and unbiased results of forest change. ...sample reference data tailored to the specific purpose of a given study can be used to discriminate proportions of loss due to natural disturbances within the overall forest loss rates12. ...we are confident that natural disturbances were not correctly excluded. ...information and knowledge are crucial to develop science-based, climate-smart forestry strategies18 to ensure that European forests continue to be an important carbon sink and a key ecosystem service provider in relation to the protection of biodiversity and the development of the bioeconomy. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03292-x Received: 3 July 2020 Accepted: 26 January 2021 Published online: 28 April 2021 Check for updates Acknowledgements We thank G. Ceccherini and co-authors for immediately making available all original material, processing codes and results of their study upon request.
Forests impact regional hydrology and climate directly by regulating water and heat fluxes. Indirect effects through cloud formation and precipitation can be important in facilitating ...continental-scale moisture recycling but are poorly understood at regional scales. In particular, the impact of temperate forest on clouds is largely unknown. Here we provide observational evidence for a strong increase in cloud cover over large forest regions in western Europe based on analysis of 10 years of 15 min resolution data from geostationary satellites. In addition, we show that widespread windthrow by cyclone Klaus in the Landes forest led to a significant decrease in local cloud cover in subsequent years. Strong cloud development along the downwind edges of larger forest areas are consistent with a forest-breeze mesoscale circulation. Our results highlight the need to include impacts on cloud formation when evaluating the water and climate services of temperate forests, in particular around densely populated areas.
Live woody vegetation is the largest reservoir of biomass carbon, with its restoration considered one of the most effective natural climate solutions. However, terrestrial carbon fluxes remain the ...largest uncertainty in the global carbon cycle. Here, we develop spatially explicit estimates of carbon stock changes of live woody biomass from 2000 to 2019 using measurements from ground, air, and space. We show that live biomass has removed 4.9 to 5.5 PgC year
−1
from the atmosphere, offsetting 4.6 ± 0.1 PgC year
−1
of gross emissions from disturbances and adding substantially (0.23 to 0.88 PgC year
−1
) to the global carbon stocks. Gross emissions and removals in the tropics were four times larger than temperate and boreal ecosystems combined. Although live biomass is responsible for more than 80% of gross terrestrial fluxes, soil, dead organic matter, and lateral transport may play important roles in terrestrial carbon sink.
In July 2016, the European Commission (EC) published a legislative proposal for incorporating greenhouse gas emissions and removals due to Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) into its ...2030 Climate and Energy Framework. The Climate and Energy Framework aims at a total emission reduction of 40% by 2030 for all sectors together as part of the Paris Agreement. The LULUCF proposal regulates a “no debit” target for LULUCF (Forests and Agricultural soils), and regulates the accounting of any additional mitigation potential that might be expected of it. We find that the forest share of the LULUCF sector can achieve much more than what is in the regulation now. We elaborate a strategy for unlocking European Union (EU) forests and forest sector potential based on the concept of “climate smart forestry” (CSF). We find that to-date, European policy has not firmly integrated forest potential into the EU climate policy framework. Nor have climate objectives been firmly integrated into those of the forest and forest sector at either the EU or national level. Yet a wide range of measures can be applied to provide positive incentives for more firmly integrating these climate objectives into the forest and forest sector framework. With the right set of incentives in place at EU and Member States levels, we find the current literature supports the view that the EU has the potential to achieve an additional combined mitigation impact through CSF of 441 Mt CO2/year by 2050. In addition, CSF, through reducing and/or removing greenhouse gas emissions, adapting and building forest resilience, and sustainably increasing forest productivity and incomes, tackles multiple policy goals.
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