In this paper, we conceptualize the difference among risk, uncertainty and ignorance and focus on a theoretical analysis of “modeling relation” applied to self-modifying systems within the framework ...of post-normal science. We provide an overview of the concept of risk and uncertainty elaborating on the work of F. Knight. We extend R. Rosen's theory of “modeling relation” originally aimed in natural science to the issue of science for governance. Knight's analysis of risk and uncertainty can be used to generate a list of various types of uncertainty involved in every stage to model self-modifying systems. Such a list is relevant for gaining insight into the issue of science for governance. It is important for those attempting to model sustainability, especially in the field of ecological economics, to be aware of the theoretical difference between models and similes for self-modifying systems.
Science for sustainability policy requires the handling of multi-dimensional and multi-scale analyses. Integrated assessment is about generating information relevant for decision-making. This ...generates a divide between two scientific paradigms: (1) ‘Post-Normal Science’ acknowledges the unavoidable existence of non-equivalent perceptions and representations of the reality; legitimate but contrasting perspectives found among social actors; heavy levels of uncertainty. (2) ‘Normal Science’, believes that it is possible to handle in a rigorous and rational way these challenges and that therefore it is possible to define in substantive terms ‘the best course of action’ for society. This paper is written to explain the reasons and the tools developed by scientists working within the Post-Normal Science paradigm.
To evaluate the effect of chronic moderate-intensity exercise upon the alterations of immune system cell function induced by energy restriction.
Forty male Wistar rats were randomly assigned to the ...following groups: sedentary animals fed ad libitum (SF, N = 10) or submitted to energy restriction (SER, N = 10, receiving 50% of the mean amount of chow consumed by SF); and trained animals fed ad libitum (TF, N = 10) or submitted to energy restriction (TER, N = 10), who exercised on a treadmill (at 60-65%VO(2max) 5 d.wk(-1) for 10 wk(-1), after 30 d under the restriction protocol. The incorporation of 2-(14)C-thymidine by lymphocytes obtained from the spleen and mesenteric lymph nodes, plasma glucose and glutamine concentration, and cytokine production by cells cultivated in the presence of glutamine were measured in all groups, 24 h after the last exercise session. Two-way ANOVA and Tukey's posttest were employed for the statistical analysis.
Training induced an increase in the proliferative response and in the production of gamma-interferon and interleukin-1 (P < 0.05) in cells from the spleen and lymph nodes of SER, in which these parameters were diminished when compared with SF (P < 0.05). SER spleen and lymph node cells produced more TNF (26 and 42%, respectively) and IL-2 (49 and 42%, respectively) than SF. The Th1-like diversion of the immune response observed in SER persisted after training. Partial recovery of the decreased SER plasma glutamine concentration and muscle glutamine synthase mRNA was observed.
Training induced the recovery of the proliferative capacity of lymphocytes from SER, probably due to the partial restoration of plasma glutamine levels, but did not interfere with the diversion towards a Th1-type immune response induced by food restriction.
The methodology of multi-scale integrated analysis of societal metabolism (MSIASM) is applied to the analysis of the recent evolution of Chinese economy. This paper has two goals: (1) to show the ...MSIASM scheme is effective in handling in an integrated way different types of data, mixing extensive and intensive variables, on different levels; and (2) to provide a multi-scale integrated analysis of the trajectory of development of China. The quality of possible scenarios is checked by identifying constraints affecting their feasibility and by characterizing them in relation to different dimensions and scales of analysis.
This entails 4 tasks: (i) identifying a set of benchmarks that makes it possible to compare different characteristics and features of China to other countries and to the average values calculated for the world level; (ii) explaining the differences found over the selected set of benchmarks, by looking at the characteristics of the various sub-sectors of Chinese economy; (iii) understanding existing trends and future feasible paths of China's development by studying the existence of reciprocal constraints between the whole economy and its compartments; and (iv) examining possible future scenarios of development for China.
This paper proposes a different framework for discussing the possibility of replacing a significant fraction of fossil energy consumption of modern economies with biofuels. The proposed analysis is ...not based on the two classic feasibility checks-land availability and output/input energy ratio-debated in the majority of the literature in this field. Rather, the focus is on the desirability of an energy sector powered by biomass energy. Discussing of desirability requires introducing a multicriteria approach, that in turn requires a definition of a set of criteria of performance for such an energy sector. The concepts of societal metabolism and ecosystem metabolism are introduced to define five criteria of performance for an energy sector powered by alternative sources.
This paper does not tell the society whether or not biofuels should be used to replace fossil energy. Rather, it proposes a method of characterization of pros and cons for the option biofuel which can be used to make more informed choices. An analysis of three systems of production-corn-ethanol, sunflower-biodiesel, and SRWC-methanol-is provided to indicate the existence of systemic characteristics associated with an energy sector powered by biofuels. These characteristics are likely to persist even when different technical coefficients will be achieved. The conclusion is that, at the moment, it is not possible to replace the actual performance of an energy sector based on fossil energy with an energy sector running on biofuel. Biomass energy can and will have to play an important role in the sustainability of humankind, but this will require a better understanding of (i) the role that an energy sector plays within a given structure of societal metabolism; and (ii) the impact generated on ecosystem metabolism by societal metabolism, plus a lot of wisdom.
Summary Background Clinical trials are needed to assess the clinical benefit of antithrombotic prophylaxis in patients with cancer who are receiving chemotherapy, since these patients are at an ...increased risk of developing a thromboembolism. We did a trial to assess the clinical benefit of the low-molecular-weight heparin nadroparin for the prophylaxis of thromboembolic events in ambulatory patients receiving chemotherapy for metastatic or locally advanced solid cancer. Methods Between October, 2003, and May, 2007, ambulatory patients with lung, gastrointestinal, pancreatic, breast, ovarian, or head and neck cancer were randomly assigned in a double-blind manner to receive subcutaneous injections of nadroparin (3800 IU anti-Xa once a day, n=779) or placebo (n=387), in a 2:1 ratio. Study treatment was given for the duration of chemotherapy up to a maximum of 4 months. The primary study outcome was the composite of symptomatic venous or arterial thromboembolic events, as assessed by an independent adjudication committee. All randomised patients who received at least one dose of study treatment were included in the efficacy and safety analyses (modified intention-to-treat population). The study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov , NCT 00951574. Findings 1150 patients were included in the primary efficacy and safety analyses: 769 patients in the nadroparin group and 381 patients in the placebo group. 15 (2·0%) of 769 patients treated with nadroparin and 15 (3·9%) of 381 patients treated with placebo had a thromboembolic event (single-sided p=0·02). Five (0·7%) of 769 patients in the nadroparin group and no patients in the placebo group had a major bleeding event (two-sided p=0·18). The incidences of minor bleeding were 7·4% (57 of 769) with nadroparin and 7·9% (30 of 381) with placebo. There were 121 (15·7%) serious adverse events in the nadroparin goup and 67 (17·6%) serious adverse events in the placebo group. Interpretation Nadroparin reduces the incidence of thromboembolic events in ambulatory patients with metastatic or locally advanced cancer who are receiving chemotherapy. Future studies should focus on patients who are at a high risk for thromboembolic events. Funding Italfarmaco SpA, Milan, Italy.
Abstract BACKGROUND: Medical thoracoscopy (MT) is a diagnostic and therapeutic procedure that permits the study of the pleural space. The presence of pleural adhesions is the most important ...contraindication to performing MT. Lesions of the pleura in absence of pleural effusion are usually studied in video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS) with preoperative ultrasound evaluation. No data are available about ultrasound-guided MT in the absence of pleural effusion. METHODS: From January 2007 to June 2013, 622 consecutive MTs were performed under ultrasound guidance without inducing a pneumothorax. A retrospective cohort of 29 patients affected by pleural diseases without fluid was reviewed. The fifth or sixth intercostal spaces along the midaxillary line with a good echographic “sliding sign” and normal appearance of the pleural line were chosen as the entry site. The pleural cavity was explored, and biopsies were performed. RESULTS: The mean age of the patient cohort was 62.8 years; there were 20 male patients and nine female patients. Pleural adherences were avoided, and adequate number of pleural biopsies were performed. No parenchymal lung injuries, bleeding, or hematoma occurred. Seventeen patients had a completely free pleural cavity, four patients had a single pleural adhesion, and eight had multiple pleural adhesions; in all cases, however, endoscopic exploration was possible and biopsy specimens were adequate. The most frequent histopathologic diagnosis was malignant pleural mesothelioma. CONCLUSIONS: We have shown that thoracic ultrasound accurately identifies intrathoracic adhesions and, in experienced hands, can guide MT access, replacing the VATS approach, even in the complete absence of pleural effusion.
When dealing with sustainability, we are concerned with the biophysical and the monetary aspects of economic and ecological interactions. This multidimensional approach requires that special ...attention is paid to dimensional issues. However, many studies in economics, as well as in ecological economics, apply dimensional numbers to exponential or logarithmic functions. We show first that it is an analytical error to put a dimensional number
x into exponential functions (
a
x
) and logarithmic functions (log
a
x). We introduce several examples of this analytical error both in ecological economics and conventional economics. These observations are presented with the hope that they will orient future quantitative analyses toward more constructive ends. Since the empirical and theoretical studies in economics often adopt the logarithmic specification of the production and cost function, we derive a procedure or an algorithm, concerned with the given data set, by which we can examine whether or not a particular logarithmic specification is superior to the usual regression specification in terms of the least square norm.
We monitored body composition variations in nine elite karateists during a 3-year period (T(1), T(2), T(3)). Arm circumference (AC) and six skinfolds were measured. Arm muscle circumference (AMC) and ...area (AMA) were then calculated. Fat mass (FM) was calculated using the Durnin-Womersley, Sloan-Weir (S-W), Katch-McArdle and Lohman equations. The only significant increase regarded the AC, AMC and AMA measurements between T(1) and T(2). The time course of the predicted FM amount using the different equations was the same. In particular, the S-W equation did not seem to reflect the modifications in the amount of FM as evidenced by the total sum of the six skinfolds. Our subjects were characterized by a substantial uniformity in body composition parameters measured in this 3-year follow-up study.
This paper applies the so-called Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM), based on Georgescu-Roegen's fund-flow model, to the Spanish region of Catalonia. It ...arrives to the conclusion that within the context of the end of cheap oil, the current development model of the Catalan economy, based on the growth of low-productivity sectors such as services and construction, must be changed. The change is needed not only because of the increasing scarcity of affordable energy and the increasing environmental impact of present development, but also because of the aging population. Moreover, the situation experienced by Catalonia is similar to that of other European countries and many other developed countries. This implies that we can expect a wave of major structural changes in the economy of developed countries worldwide. To make things more challenging, according to current trends, the energy intensity and exosomatic energy metabolism of Catalonia will keep increasing in the near future. To avoid a reduction in the standard of living of Catalans due to a reduction in the available energy it is important that the Government of Catalonia implement major adjustments and conservation efforts in both the household and paid-work sectors.
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