Parametric thresholding algorithms applied to synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery typically require the estimation of two distribution functions, i.e., one representing the target class and one ...its background. They are eventually used for selecting the threshold that allows binarizing the image in an optimal way. In this context, one of the main difficulties in parameterizing these functions originates from the fact that the target class often represents only a small fraction of the image. Under such circumstances, the histogram of the image values is often not obviously bimodal and it becomes difficult, if not impossible, to accurately parameterize distribution functions. Here we introduce a hierarchical split-based approach that searches for tiles of variable size allowing the parameterization of the distributions of two classes. The method is integrated into a flood-mapping algorithm in order to evaluate its capacity for parameterizing distribution functions attributed to floodwater and changes caused by floods. We analyzed a data set acquired during a flood event along the Severn River (U.K.) in 2007. It is composed of moderate (ENVISAT-WS) and high (TerraSAR-X)-resolution SAR images. The obtained classification accuracies as well as the similarity of performance levels to a benchmark obtained with an established method based on the manual selection of tiles indicate the validity of the new method.
Probabilistic flood mapping offers flood managers, decision makers, insurance agencies, and humanitarian relief organizations a useful characterization of uncertainty in flood mapping delineation. ...Probabilistic flood maps are also of high interest for data assimilation into numerical models. The direct assimilation of probabilistic flood maps into hydrodynamic models would be beneficial because it would eliminate the intermediate step of having to extract water levels first. This paper introduces a probabilistic flood mapping procedure based on synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data. Given a SAR image of backscatter values, we construct a total histogram of backscatter values and decompose this histogram into probability distribution functions of backscatter values associated with flooded (open water) and non-flooded pixels, respectively. These distributions are then used to estimate, for each pixel, its probability of being flooded. The new approach improves on binary SAR-based flood mapping procedures, which do not inform on the uncertainty in the pixel state. The proposed approach is tested using four SAR images from two floodplains, i.e., the Severn River (U.K.) and the Red River (U.S.). In all four test cases, reliability diagrams, with error values ranging from 0.04 to 0.23, indicate a good agreement between the SAR-derived probabilistic flood map and an independently available validation map, which is obtained from aerial photography.
Very high resolution synthetic aperture radar (SAR) sensors represent an alternative to aerial photography for delineating floods in built-up environments where flood risk is highest. However, even ...with currently available SAR image resolutions of 3 m and higher, signal returns from man-made structures hamper the accurate mapping of flooded areas. Enhanced image processing algorithms and a better exploitation of image archives are required to facilitate the use of microwave remote-sensing data for monitoring flood dynamics in urban areas. In this paper, a hybrid methodology combining backscatter thresholding, region growing, and change detection (CD) is introduced as an approach enabling the automated, objective, and reliable flood extent extraction from very high resolution urban SAR images. The method is based on the calibration of a statistical distribution of "open water" backscatter values from images of floods. Images acquired during dry conditions enable the identification of areas that are not "visible" to the sensor (i.e., regions affected by "shadow") and that systematically behave as specular reflectors (e.g., smooth tarmac, permanent water bodies). CD with respect to a reference image thereby reduces overdetection of inundated areas. A case study of the July 2007 Severn River flood (UK) observed by airborne photography and the very high resolution SAR sensor on board TerraSAR-X highlights advantages and limitations of the method. Even though the proposed fully automated SAR-based flood-mapping technique overcomes some limitations of previous methods, further technological and methodological improvements are necessary for SAR-based flood detection in urban areas to match the mapping capability of high-quality aerial photography.
Crop yield forecasting activities are essential to support decision making of farmers, private companies and public entities. While standard systems use georeferenced agro-climatic data as input to ...process-based simulation models, new trends entail the application of machine learning for yield prediction. In this paper we present HADES (HAzelnut yielD forEcaSt), a hazelnut yield prediction system, in which process-based modeling and machine learning techniques are hybridized and applied in Turkey. Official yields in the top hazelnut producing municipalities in 2004–2019 are used as reference data, whereas ground observations of phenology and weather data represent the main HADES inputs. A statistical analysis allows inferring the occurrence and magnitude of biennial bearing in official yields and is used to aid the calibration of a process-based hazelnut simulation model. Then, a Random Forest algorithm is deployed in regression mode using the outputs of the process-based model as predictors, together with information on hazelnut varieties, the presence of alternate bearing in the yield series, and agro-meteorological indicators. HADES predictive ability in calibration and validation was balanced, with relative root mean square error below 20%, and R
2
and Nash-Sutcliffe modeling efficiency above 0.7 considering all municipalities together. HADES paves the way for a next-generation yield prediction system, to deliver timely and robust information and enhance the sustainability of the hazelnut sector across the globe.
This paper explores a method to combine the time and space continuity of a large-scale inundation model with discontinuous satellite microwave observations, for high-resolution flood hazard mapping. ...The assumption behind this approach is that hydraulic variables computed from continuous spatially-distributed hydrodynamic modeling and observed as discrete satellite-derived flood extents are correlated in time, so that probabilities can be transferred from the model series to the observations. A prerequisite is, therefore, the existence of a significant correlation between a modeled variable (i.e., flood extent or volume) and the synchronously-observed flood extent. If this is the case, the availability of model simulations over a long time period allows for a robust estimate of non-exceedance probabilities that can be attributed to corresponding synchronously-available satellite observations. The generated flood hazard map has a spatial resolution equal to that of the satellite images, which is higher than that of currently available large scale inundation models. The method was applied on the Severn River (UK), using the outputs of a global inundation model provided by the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts and a large collection of ENVISAT ASAR imagery. A comparison between the hazard map obtained with the proposed method and with a more traditional numerical modeling approach supports the hypothesis that combining model results and satellite observations could provide advantages for high-resolution flood hazard mapping, provided that a sufficient number of remote sensing images is available and that a time correlation is present between variables derived from a global model and obtained from satellite observations.
The quality defects of hazelnut fruits comprise changes in morphology and taste, and their intensity mainly depends on seasonal environmental conditions. The strongest off-flavor of hazelnuts is ...known as rotten defect, whose candidate causal agents are a complex of fungal pathogens, with
as the dominant genus. Timely indications on the expected incidence of rotten defect would be essential for buyers to identify areas where hazelnut quality will be superior, other than being useful for farmers to have the timely indications of the risk of pathogens infection. Here, we propose a rotten defect forecasting model, and we apply it in the seven main hazelnut producing municipalities in Turkey. We modulate plant susceptibility to fungal infection according to simulated hazelnut phenology, and we reproduce the key components of the
spp. epidemiological cycle
a process-based simulation model. A model sensitivity analysis has been performed under contrasting weather conditions to select most relevant parameters for calibration, which relied on weekly phenological observations and the post-harvest analyses of rotten incidence in the period 2016-2019, conducted in 22 orchards. The rotten simulation model reproduced rotten incidence data in calibration and validation datasets with a mean absolute error below 1.8%. The dataset used for model validation (321 additional sampling locations) has been characterized by large variability of rotten incidence, in turn contributing to decrease the correlation between reference and simulated data (
= 0.4 and 0.21 in West and East Black Sea region, respectively). This denotes the key effect of other environmental and agronomic factors on rotten incidence, which are not yet taken into account by the predictive workflow and will be considered in further improvements. When applied in spatially distributed simulations, the model differentiated the rotten incidence across municipalities, and reproduced the interannual variability of rotten incidence. Our results confirmed that the rotten defect is strictly dependent on precipitation amount and timing, and that plant susceptibility is crucial to trigger fungal infections. Future steps will envisage the application of the rotten simulation model to other hazelnut producing regions, before being operationally used for in-season forecasting activities.
Accurate maps of surface water extent are of paramount importance for water management, satellite data processing and climate modeling. Several maps of water bodies based on remote sensing data have ...been released during the last decade. Nonetheless, none has a truly (90 compfn N/90 compfn S) global coverage while being thoroughly validated. This paper describes a global, spatially-complete (void-free) and accurate mask of inland/ocean water for the 2000-2012 period, built in the framework of the European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change Initiative (CCI). This map results from the synergistic combination of multiple individual SAR and optical water body and auxiliary datasets. A key aspect of this work is the original and rigorous stratified random sampling designed for the quality assessment of binary classifications where one class is marginally distributed. Input and consolidated products were assessed qualitatively and quantitatively against a reference validation database of 2110 samples spread throughout the globe. Using all samples, overall accuracy was always very high among all products, between 98% and 100% . The CCI global map of open water bodies provided the best water class representation (F-score of 89% ) compared to its constitutive inputs. When focusing on the challenging areas for water bodies' mapping, such as shorelines, lakes and river banks, all products yielded substantially lower accuracy figures with overall accuracies ranging between 74% and 89% . The inland water area of the CCI global map of open water bodies was estimated to be 3.17 million km 2 plus or minus 0.24 million km 2 . The dataset is freely available through the ESA CCI Land Cover viewer.
This paper presents a comprehensive river discharge analysis to estimate past and future hydrological extremes across Morocco. Hydrological simulations with historical forcing and climate change ...scenario inputs have been performed to better understand the change in magnitude and frequency of extreme discharge events that cause flooding. Simulations are applied to all major rivers of Morocco, including a total of 16 basins that cover the majority of the country. An ensemble of temperature and precipitation input parameter sets was generated to analyze input uncertainty, an approach that can be extended to other regions of the world, including data-sparse regions. Parameter uncertainty was also included in the analyses. Historical simulations comprise the period 1979–2021, while future simulations (2015–2100) were performed under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5. Clear patterns of changing flood extremes are projected; these changes are significant when considered as a proportion of the land area of the country. Two types of basins have been identified, based on their different behavior in climate change scenarios. In the Northern/Mediterranean basins we observe a decrease in the frequency and intensity of events by 2050 under both SSPs, whereas for the remaining catchments higher and more frequent high-flow events in the form of flash floods are detected. Our analysis revealed that this is a consequence of the reduction in rainfall accumulation and intensity in both SSPs for the first type of basins, while the opposite applies to the other type. More generally, we propose a methodology that does not rely on observed time series of discharge, so especially for regions where those do not exist or are not available, and that can be applied to undertake future flood projections in the most data-scarce regions. This method allows future hydrological hazards to be estimated for essentially any region of the world.
Climate change, increasing population and changes in land use are all rapidly driving the need to be able to better understand surface water dynamics. The targets set by the United Nations under ...Sustainable Development Goal 6 in relation to freshwater ecosystems also make accurate surface water monitoring increasingly vital. However, the last decades have seen a steady decline in in situ hydrological monitoring and the availability of the growing volume of environmental data from free and open satellite systems is increasingly being recognized as an essential tool for largescale monitoring of water resources. The scientific literature holds many promising studies on satellite-based surface-water mapping, but a systematic evaluation has been lacking. Therefore, a round robin exercise was organized to conduct an intercomparison of 14 different satellite-based approaches for monitoring inland surface dynamics with Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2, and Landsat 8 imagery. The objective was to achieve a better understanding of the pros and cons of different sensors and models for surface water detection and monitoring. Results indicate that, while using a single sensor approach (applying either optical or radar satellite data) can provide comprehensive results for very specific localities, a dual sensor approach (combining data from both optical and radar satellites) is the most effective way to undertake largescale national and regional surface water mapping across bioclimatic gradients.
The ability to map floods from satellites has been known for over 40 years. Early images of floods were rather difficult to obtain, and flood mapping from satellites was thus rather opportunistic and ...limited to only a few case studies. However, over the last decade, with a proliferation of open-access EO data, there has been much progress in the development of Earth Observation products and services tailored to various end-user needs, as well as its integration with flood modeling and prediction efforts. This article provides an overview of the use of satellite remote sensing of floods and outlines recent advances in its application for flood mapping, monitoring and its integration with flood models. Strengths and limitations are discussed throughput, and the article concludes by looking at new developments.
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