Significance Climate change has the potential to reduce the supply of surface water by accelerating mountain vegetation growth and evapotranspiration (ET), though the likelihood and severity of this ...effect are poorly known. We used the upper Kings River basin in California’s Sierra Nevada as a case study of the sensitivity of runoff to increased ET with warming. We found that Kings River flow is highly sensitive to vegetation expansion; warming projected for 2100 could increase ET across the Kings River watershed by 28% and decrease riverflow by 26%. Moreover, we found a consistent relationship between watershed ET and temperature across the Sierra Nevada; this consistency implies a potential widespread reduction in water supply with warming, with important implications for California’s economy and environment.
Climate change has the potential to reduce surface-water supply by expanding the activity, density, or coverage of upland vegetation, although the likelihood and severity of this effect are poorly known. We quantified the extent to which vegetation and evapotranspiration (ET) are presently cold-limited in California’s upper Kings River basin and used a space-for-time substitution to calculate the sensitivity of riverflow to vegetation expansion. We found that runoff is highly sensitive to vegetation migration; warming projected for 2100 could increase average basin-wide ET by 28% and decrease riverflow by 26%. Kings River basin ET currently peaks at midelevation and declines at higher elevation, creating a cold-limited zone above 2,400 m that is disproportionately important for runoff generation. Climate projections for 2085–2100 indicate as much as 4.1 °C warming in California’s Sierra Nevada, which would expand high rates of ET 700-m upslope if vegetation maintains its current correlation with temperature. Moreover, we observed that the relationship between basin-wide ET and temperature is similar across the entire western slope of California’s Sierra Nevada, implying that the risk of increasing montane ET with warming is widespread.
A change in climate would be expected to shift plant distribution as species expand in newly favorable areas and decline in increasingly hostile locations. We compared surveys of plant cover that ...were made in 1977 and 2006-2007 along a 2,314-m elevation gradient in Southern California's Santa Rosa Mountains. Southern California's climate warmed at the surface, the precipitation variability increased, and the amount of snow decreased during the 30-year period preceding the second survey. We found that the average elevation of the dominant plant species rose by ≈65 m between the surveys. This shift cannot be attributed to changes in air pollution or fire frequency and appears to be a consequence of changes in regional climate.
Rates of ecosystem processes such as decomposition are likely to change as a result of human impacts on the environment. In southern California, climate change and nitrogen (N) deposition in ...particular may alter biological communities and ecosystem processes. These drivers may affect decomposition directly, through changes in abiotic conditions, and indirectly through changes in plant and decomposer communities. To assess indirect effects on litter decomposition, we reciprocally transplanted microbial communities and plant litter among control and treatment plots (either drought or N addition) in a grassland ecosystem. We hypothesized that drought would reduce decomposition rates through moisture limitation of decomposers and reductions in plant litter quality before and during decomposition. In contrast, we predicted that N deposition would stimulate decomposition by relieving N limitation of decomposers and improving plant litter quality. We also hypothesized that adaptive mechanisms would allow microbes to decompose litter more effectively in their native plot and litter environments. Consistent with our first hypothesis, we found that drought treatment reduced litter mass loss from 20.9% to 15.3% after six months. There was a similar decline in mass loss of litter inoculated with microbes transplanted from the drought treatment, suggesting a legacy effect of drought driven by declines in microbial abundance and possible changes in microbial community composition. Bacterial cell densities were up to 86% lower in drought plots and at least 50% lower on litter derived from the drought treatment, whereas fungal hyphal lengths increased by 13-14% in the drought treatment. Nitrogen effects on decomposition rates and microbial abundances were weaker than drought effects, although N addition significantly altered initial plant litter chemistry and litter chemistry during decomposition. However, we did find support for microbial adaptation to N addition with N-derived microbes facilitating greater mass loss in N plots than in control plots. Our results show that environmental changes can affect rates of ecosystem processes directly through abiotic changes and indirectly through microbial abundances and communities. Therefore models of ecosystem response to global change may need to represent microbial biomass and community composition to make accurate predictions.
Accurate estimation of global evapotranspiration (ET) is essential to understand water cycle and land-atmosphere feedbacks in the Earth system. Satellite-driven ET models provide global estimates, ...but many of the ET algorithms have been designed independently of soil moisture observations. As water for ET is sourced from the soil, incorporating soil moisture into global remote sensing algorithms of ET should, in theory, improve performance, especially in water-limited regions. This paper presents an update to the widely-used Priestley Taylor-Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PT-JPL) ET algorithm to incorporate spatially explicit daily surface soil moisture control on soil evaporation and canopy transpiration. The updated algorithm is evaluated using 14 AmeriFlux eddy covariance towers co-located with COsmic-ray Soil Moisture Observing System (COSMOS) soil moisture observations. The new PT-JPLSM model shows reduced errors and increased explanation of variance, with the greatest improvements in water-limited regions. Soil moisture incorporation into soil evaporation improves ET estimates by reducing bias and RMSE by 29.9% and 22.7% respectively, while soil moisture incorporation into transpiration improves ET estimates by reducing bias by 30.2%, RMSE by 16.9%. We apply the algorithm globally using soil moisture observations from the Soil Moisture Active Passive Mission (SMAP). These new global estimates of ET show reduced error at finer spatial resolutions and provide a rich dataset to evaluate land surface and climate models, vegetation response to changes in water availability and environmental conditions, and anthropogenic perturbations to the water cycle.
•A soil moisture constraint is introduced to the widely-used PT-JPL ET model.•The new ET algorithm is applied globally using SMAP soil moisture observations.•SMAP data improves ET most in dry areas with large fractions of soil evaporation.•Soil moisture integration into soil evaporation reduces errors in ET by 23%.•Soil moisture integration into transpiration reduces errors in ET by 17%.
The importance of vegetation structure and biomass in controlling land-atmosphere exchange is widely recognized, but measurements of canopy structure are challenging, time consuming, and often rely ...on destructive methods. The Microsoft Kinect is an infrared sensor designed for video gaming that outputs synchronized color and depth images and that has the potential to allow rapid characterization of vegetation structure. We compared depth images from a Kinect sensor with manual measurements of plant structure and size for two species growing in a California grassland. The depth images agreed well with the horizontal and vertical measurements of plant size made manually. Similarly, the plant volumes calculated with a three-dimensional convex hulls approach was well related to plant biomass. The Kinect showed some limitations for ecological observation associated with a short measurement range and daytime light contamination. Nonetheless, the Kinect's light weight, fast acquisition time, low power requirement, and cost make it a promising tool for rapid field surveys of canopy structure, especially in small-statured vegetation.
California has experienced a rapid increase in burned area over the past several decades. Although fire behavior is known to be closely tied to ecosystem impacts, most analysis of changing fire ...regimes has focused solely on area burned. Here we present a standardized database of wildfire behavior, including daily fire rate-of-spread and fire radiative power for large, multiday wildfires in California during 2012-2018 using remotely-sensed active fire observations. We observe that human-ignited fires start at locations with lower tree cover and during periods with more extreme fire weather. These characteristics contribute to more explosive growth in the first few days following ignition for human-caused fires as compared to lightning-caused fires. The faster fire spread, in turn, yields a larger ecosystem impact, with tree mortality more than three times higher for fast-moving fires (>1 km day
) than for slow moving fires (<0.5 km day
). Our analysis shows how human-caused fires can amplify ecosystem impacts and highlights the importance of limiting human-caused fires during period of extreme fire weather for meeting forest conservation targets under scenarios of future change.
We used in situ and satellite measurements to investigate the seasonal patterns of leaf area index (LAI) and gross ecosystem CO2 exchange (GEE) by an evergreen tropical forest. The forest experienced ...a dry season from June through November. The rates of light‐saturated CO2 uptake (GEE) were comparatively high from December through March and low from May through July. In situ measurements showed that LAI varied seasonally, with a minimum from May through September. Leaf production and leaf abscission were reduced from December through April. Leaf abscission increased in May, which reduced LAI. High rates of leaf abscission and production occurred from July through September associated with leaf turnover. Leaf abscission decreased abruptly in October, while production continued, which rapidly increased LAI. Leaf phenology was not directly correlated with changes in soil water. The seasonal cycle of in situ LAI differed markedly from the seasonal cycles of in situ normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) MOD15 LAI product. We hypothesize that the NDVI and MOD15 seasonality at the site is driven partly by seasonal changes in leaf age and leaf reflectance. We developed three simple models to investigate the causes of GEE seasonality. The first two models showed that the seasonal changes in LAI alone, and the effects of leaf age on leaf‐level photosynthesis alone, could not account for the observed GEE seasonality. The third model showed that the combined effect of seasonal changes in LAI and seasonal changes in leaf age and leaf photosynthesis was sufficient to account for the observed GEE seasonality.
Remotely-sensed Vegetation Indices (VIs) are often tightly correlated with terrestrial ecosystem CO2 uptake (Gross Primary Production or GPP). These correlations have been exploited to infer GPP at ...local to global scales and over half-hour to decadal periods, though the underlying mechanisms remain incompletely understood. We used satellite remote sensing and eddy covariance observations at 10 sites across a California climate gradient to explore the relationships between GPP, the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and the Near InfraRed Vegetation (NIRv) index. EVI and NIRv were linearly correlated with GPP across both space and time, whereas the relationship between NDVI and GPP was less general. We explored these interactions using radiative transfer and GPP models forced with in-situ plant trait and soil reflectance observations. GPP ultimately reflects the product of Leaf Area Index (LAI) and leaf level CO2 uptake (Aleaf); a VI that is sensitive mainly to LAI will lack generality across ecosystems that differ in Aleaf. EVI and NIRv showed a strong, multiplicative sensitivity to LAI and Leaf Mass per Area (LMA). LMA was correlated with Aleaf, and EVI and NIRv consequently mimic GPP’s multiplicative sensitivity to LAI and Aleaf, as mediated by LMA. NDVI was most sensitive to LAI, and was relatively insensitive to leaf properties over realistic conditions; NDVI lacked EVI and NIRv’s sensitivity to both LAI and Aleaf. These findings carry implications for understanding the limitations of current VIs for predicting GPP, and also for devising strategies to improve predictions of GPP.
Global‐scale studies suggest that dryland ecosystems dominate an increasing trend in the magnitude and interannual variability of the land CO2 sink. However, such analyses are poorly constrained by ...measured CO2 exchange in drylands. Here we address this observation gap with eddy covariance data from 25 sites in the water‐limited Southwest region of North America with observed ranges in annual precipitation of 100–1000 mm, annual temperatures of 2–25°C, and records of 3–10 years (150 site‐years in total). Annual fluxes were integrated using site‐specific ecohydrologic years to group precipitation with resulting ecosystem exchanges. We found a wide range of carbon sink/source function, with mean annual net ecosystem production (NEP) varying from ‐350 to +330 gCm−2 across sites with diverse vegetation types, contrasting with the more constant sink typically measured in mesic ecosystems. In this region, only forest‐dominated sites were consistent carbon sinks. Interannual variability of NEP, gross ecosystem production (GEP), and ecosystem respiration (Reco) was larger than for mesic regions, and half the sites switched between functioning as C sinks/C sources in wet/dry years. The sites demonstrated coherent responses of GEP and NEP to anomalies in annual evapotranspiration (ET), used here as a proxy for annually available water after hydrologic losses. Notably, GEP and Reco were negatively related to temperature, both interannually within site and spatially across sites, in contrast to positive temperature effects commonly reported for mesic ecosystems. Models based on MODIS satellite observations matched the cross‐site spatial pattern in mean annual GEP but consistently underestimated mean annual ET by ~50%. Importantly, the MODIS‐based models captured only 20–30% of interannual variation magnitude. These results suggest the contribution of this dryland region to variability of regional to global CO2 exchange may be up to 3–5 times larger than current estimates.
Global‐scale studies suggest that drylands dominate an increasing trend in the magnitude and interannual variability of the land CO2 sink, but direct measurements are lacking; 25 eddy covariance sites in the water‐limited southwest of North America showed wide‐ranging carbon sink/source function, contrasting with the persistent sink typically measured in mesic ecosystems. Interannual variability of CO2 exchange was larger than for mesic regions, and half the sites switched between functioning as C sinks/sources in wet/dry years. CO2 exchanges were negatively related to temperature, in contrast to positive effects commonly reported for mesic ecosystems. MODIS‐based models captured only 20–30% of interannual variation, suggesting this dryland region may contribute 3–5 times more variability to global carbon and water cycles than current estimates.
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