The 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was held in Glasgow a year later than scheduled, with expected outcomes achieved under ...a post-pandemic background. Based on the Issue-Actor-Mechanism Framework, this paper systematically evaluates the outcomes achieved at COP26 and analyzes the tendency of post-COP26 climate negotiations. Overall, with the concerted efforts of all parties, COP26 has achieved a balanced and inclusive package of outcomes and concluded six years of negotiations on the Paris Rulebook. It is fair to say that COP26 is another milestone in climate governance following the implementation of the Paris Agreement. Meanwhile, the Glasgow Climate Pact has cemented the consensus on a global commitment to accelerating climate action over the next decade and reached a breakthrough consensus on reducing coal, controlling methane, and halting deforestation. In the post-COP26 era, we still need to take concrete actions to implement the outcomes of the Paris Agreement and the Glasgow Climate Pact, innovate ways to speed up CO
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emissions reduction, and continue to strive for breakthroughs in important issues such as finance, technology, adaptation, and collaboration. In addition to avoiding the escalation of international conflicts, we need to collectively and properly handle the relationship between energy security, carbon reduction, and development and facilitate the efforts of countries to achieve their Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including climate-related goals. China will continue to maintain the existing multilateral mechanisms and processes for climate governance, unremittingly take concrete actions to address climate change, promote a domestic comprehensive green transition and global cooperation on carbon neutrality, and contribute constructively to global climate governance.
Abstract
Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can be traced to five economic sectors: energy, industry, buildings, transport and AFOLU (agriculture, forestry and other land uses). In this topical ...review, we synthesise the literature to explain recent trends in global and regional emissions in each of these sectors. To contextualise our review, we present estimates of GHG emissions trends by sector from 1990 to 2018, describing the major sources of emissions growth, stability and decline across ten global regions. Overall, the literature and data emphasise that progress towards reducing GHG emissions has been limited. The prominent global pattern is a continuation of underlying drivers with few signs of emerging limits to demand, nor of a deep shift towards the delivery of low and zero carbon services across sectors. We observe a moderate decarbonisation of energy systems in Europe and North America, driven by fuel switching and the increasing penetration of renewables. By contrast, in rapidly industrialising regions, fossil-based energy systems have continuously expanded, only very recently slowing down in their growth. Strong demand for materials, floor area, energy services and travel have driven emissions growth in the industry, buildings and transport sectors, particularly in Eastern Asia, Southern Asia and South-East Asia. An expansion of agriculture into carbon-dense tropical forest areas has driven recent increases in AFOLU emissions in Latin America, South-East Asia and Africa. Identifying, understanding, and tackling the most persistent and climate-damaging trends across sectors is a fundamental concern for research and policy as humanity treads deeper into the Anthropocene.
The development of renewable energy is a significant global factor in the achievement of a green economic recovery after the epidemic, and to enhance sustainable social development in the future. ...However, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries are experiencing regional differences in renewable energy development owing to the different economic and social levels. It is of theoretical and practical significance to assess the situation of renewable energy development in BRI countries, in order to identify the advantages and disadvantages of renewable energy development and to enhance energy cooperation between countries. In this paper, a multidimensional assessment for BRI countries (47 countries/regions across Asia, Europe, Africa, the Americas, and Oceania) was carried out based on empirical data, (including institutional, economic, technological, energy and environmental facets). The Entropy Weight Method and the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) were selected to assess the level of renewable energy development in BRI countries during the period 2009–2017. The results demonstrated that BRI countries/regions had a low overall level of renewable energy development during the study period, but a stable and rising development trend was identifiable. For example, certain countries/regions (e.g. Mainland China, Indonesia, Pakistan, Russia, South Africa and New Zealand) experienced significant growth during the period. When analyzed by continents, the Americas and Oceania had the highest level of renewable energy development, followed by Europe, with Asia and Africa ranking lowest. Europe and Oceania’s notable advantages in “institutional and economic facets” were primarily as a result of the enhanced governance capability and superior economic development. The superior maturity of renewable energy technology in the Americas and Oceania contributes to the superior performance in the “technological facet”. The countries with superior development in the “energy and environmental facets” are located in Asia, Oceania and Europe.
The countries along the Belt and Road Initiative remain high exposure and vulnerability to climate extremes. Southeast Asia, a significant part of the Belt and Road Initiative, suffers a lot from ...flood disasters. This study assessed the flood disaster risk from 1990-2015 in all 11 Southeast Asian countries. A model integrating the coefficient of variation approach and the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution method was introduced to analyze the flood disaster data. Considering that populations living in areas where elevation is below 5 m and land area where elevation is below 5 m have reached 11.86% and 3.54% (2015), respectively, the two indicators were opted for to propose new metrics for flood disaster risk assessment.Outcomes: Our findings show that the flood disaster risk in Southeast Asia appeared very high during most of the study period. Indonesia had an extremely high flood disaster risk, followed by Vietnam, whereas Laos, Malaysia, Brunei, and Timor Leste had lower flood risks. The model introduced in this paper is quite simple and easy to understand, providing accessible flood risk information for decision makers.Conclusion: The results we obtained have practical implications for land use and investment activities in Southeast Asia.
Assessing transport CO2 emissions is important in the development of low-carbon strategies, but studies based on mixed land use are rare. This study assessed CO2 emissions from passenger transport in ...traffic analysis zones (TAZs) at the community level, based on a combination of the mixed-use development model and the vehicle emission calculation model. Based on mixed land use and transport accessibility, the mixed-use development model was adopted to estimate travel demand, including travel modes and distances. As a leading low-carbon city project of international cooperation in China, Shenzhen International Low-Carbon City Core Area was chosen as a case study. The results clearly illustrate travel demand and CO2 emissions of different travel modes between communities and show that car trips account for the vast majority of emissions in all types of travel modes in each community. Spatial emission differences are prominently associated with inadequately mixed land use layouts and unbalanced transport accessibility. The findings demonstrate the significance of the mixed land use and associated job-housing balance in reducing passenger CO2 emissions from passenger transport, especially in per capita emissions. Policy implications are given based on the results to facilitate sophisticated transport emission control at a finer spatial scale. This new framework can be used for assessing the impacts of urban planning on transport emissions to promote sustainable urbanization in developing countries.
This corrigendum resolves an error in figure 17 and clarifies the scope of the cement sector in figure 2. Figure 17 in the original published manuscript depicts a Kaya identity for the agriculture, ...forestry and other land uses (AFOLU) sector. We unintentionally excluded land-use CO2 emissions from total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in this identity, and depicted only agricultural GHG emissions.
The carbon dioxide generated by building sector accounts for approximately 30% of the total CO2 emissions in China. The building sector plays a significant role in Chinese low-carbon development. ...This study develops the CAS bottom-up model system to predict the future trend of carbon emissions in China's building sector. Firstly, we sets three scenarios: business as usual (BAU), policy scenario, and synergistic emission reduction (SER) scenario, which consider the influence of low-carbon building policies and emission factors (i.e. power and heat emission factor (PEF and HEF)). Then we develop an emission reduction potential model to assess the CO2 abatement potential of the building sector in 2016–2050. The results reveal that low-carbon policies of building sector in policy scenario can only slow down but not curb the CO2 emission completely. The CO2 emissions will reach its peak before 2030 in the SER scenario, taking into account the impact of PEF and HEF. The analysis demonstrates that the synergistic reduction effect of inter-department will be better than that of one sector. Furthermore, green buildings, renewable energy building and energy conservation policies for district heating have a great influence on emission abatement in the building sector.
•Energy use and CO2 emission of China's building sector by 2050 is discussed.•We develop an ERP model to estimate the emission reduction potential.•18 energy saving policies and heat/power emission factors are considered.•We demonstrate the synergistic effect on multi-sector policies.
The carbonisation of energy structures is a principal reason for the high carbon levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the steel industry. The implementation of an energy substitution policy in ...the Chinese steel industry has important practical significance for this industry in terms of reducing CO2 emissions. Based on this, this paper divides 20 types of energy-saving and emission-reduction (ESER) technologies into 4 categories: coal-saving technology, electricity-saving technology, comprehensive energy-saving technology, and linkage technology according to the energy-saving effect of different technology on energy varieties. Considering the energy substitution constraints on energy structures within the steel industry, we construct a bottom-up optimisation model based on a scenario analysis to analyse the emission reductions under 3 different scenarios: the baseline scenario (BAU), policy scenario (PS), and strengthened policy scenario (SPS). Results show that the emission reduction of coal-saving technology and comprehensive energy-saving technology in 2030 is 102 million tons CO2 (MtCO2) and 129 MtCO2, respectively, in the PS, and 116 MtCO2 and 130 MtCO2, respectively, in the SPS. Compared with these types of technology, electricity-saving technology is maintained at the level of the BAU. Linkage technology is developed in the latter period of the SPS. The emission reduction of linkage technology in the SPS in 2030 will be 4.1 MtCO2. During the period of 2015–2020, priority should be given to the development of thin slab continuous casting technology in comprehensive energy-saving technology and the development of blast furnace thick phase high efficiency coal injection technology in coal-saving technology. During the period 2020–2030, priority should be given to the development of thick layer sintering technology, hot delivery & hot charging technology of continuous casting slab, online treatment technology in comprehensive energy-saving technology and low temperature rolling technology, converter ‘negative energy steelmaking’ technology, and double preheating technology for hot stove of blast furnace in coal-saving technology.
To balance China's socio-economic development and emission reduction goals, a fair and effective provincial carbon emission allowance (CEA) allocation is necessary. By considering the implied ...emissions of inter-provincial power transfer, this study designed a dynamic multi-criteria CEA allocation model based on four criteria—egalitarianism, historical responsibility, emission reduction capability, and emission efficiency—to calculate the provincial CEA year by year before 2030. The efficiency and fairness of the CEA scheme were evaluated through the Data envelopment analysis (DEA) model, the environmental Gini coefficient, and its grouped decomposition method. The national overall CEA, the results revealed, will peak during the 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP) period. Specifically, the CEA for eastern and central China is expected to peak first during the 14th FYP period, while the northeast region's CEA remains stable and that of the western region continues to grow. Provinces with high carbon emissions, high carbon emission intensity and high per capita carbon emissions and provinces with particularly high carbon emissions will face great pressure regarding emission reduction, and their CEA peaks are expected to arrive before 2025 and 2030 respectively. The CEA of the less-developed provinces will have a surplus. In terms of time, the high-emission provinces face greater emission reduction pressure during the 15th FYP period than during the 14th FYP period. In terms of scheme evaluation, the scheme achieved a double improvement in fairness and efficiency compared with the current actual emissions of various provinces. Reducing the differences in per capita CEA between the different regions and provinces in the western and eastern regions will help improve the scheme's fairness. This study overcomes the existing researches' shortcomings on the large differences in the distribution of emission reduction pressures in key provinces and is more feasible in practice.
Historical CO2 emissions and future CEA evolution by provinces in China (2000−2030). Display omitted
•The carbon emissions implied by inter-provincial power transfer are considered in the provincial CEA allocation.•This study gives the change trajectory of CEA at provincial levels before 2030 by a recursive dynamic method.•The proposed scheme performs well in fairness and efficiency, as well as ensuring the development inertia of each province.•This study evaluates the fairness of the scheme at the regional level.•Fairness and efficiency are not a set of trade-offs in China's current development stage.
•A three-phase model of regional CO2 emission reduction potential was built.•Chongqing, the only municipality in the Midwest of China, was taken as example.•The driving factors of CO2 emission in ...Chongqing were analysed.•The future CO2 emission reduction potential in Chongqing was predicted.•The difficulties of achieving CO2 emission reduction targets in 2020 were assessed.
Since China has put forward a series of obligatory Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission reduction targets, provincial governments have issued provincial-level “Twelfth Five-Year” carbon intensity (CO2 emissions/GDP) reduction targets. There are 653 cities distributed throughout the eastern, middle and western parts of China, and each region has different quotas and paths to reduce GHG emissions, while the western part has greater challenges than the others. This paper predicts CO2 emission reduction potential of Chongqing, assesses the difficulty of achieving its CO2 emission reduction targets, and analyses its low-carbon transition path. The results show that the carbon intensity of Chongqing in 2020 will range from 1.58 to 1.75 ton CO2/104 RMB, and there exist some scenarios with strong potential to meet carbon intensity reduction targets for 2020. Improved technology, energy efficiency, the optimization of energy input mix, and the adjustment of industrial structure are suggested to be major strategies to reach Chongqing’s carbon intensity targets.
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