The integration of immunization with other essential health services is among the strategic priorities of the Immunization Agenda 2030 and has the potential to improve the effectiveness, efficiency, ...and equity of health service delivery. This study aims to evaluate the degree of spatial overlap between the prevalence of children who have never received a dose of the diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis-containing vaccine (no-DTP) and other health-related indicators, to provide insight into the potential for joint geographic targeting of integrated service delivery efforts. Using geospatially modeled estimates of vaccine coverage and comparator indicators, we develop a framework to delineate and compare areas of high overlap across indicators, both within and between countries, and based upon both counts and prevalence. We derive summary metrics of spatial overlap to facilitate comparison between countries and indicators and over time. As an example, we apply this suite of analyses to five countries-Nigeria, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Indonesia, Ethiopia, and Angola-and five comparator indicators-children with stunting, under-5 mortality, children missing doses of oral rehydration therapy, prevalence of lymphatic filariasis, and insecticide-treated bed net coverage. Our results demonstrate substantial heterogeneity in the geographic overlap both within and between countries. These results provide a framework to assess the potential for joint geographic targeting of interventions, supporting efforts to ensure that all people, regardless of location, can benefit from vaccines and other essential health services.
Preserving landscape connectivity is one of the most frequently recommended strategies to address the synergistic threats of climate change, habitat fragmentation, and intensifying disturbances. ...Although assessments to develop plans for linked and connected landscapes in response to climate and land-use change have been increasingly employed in the last decade, efforts to operationalize and implement these plans have been limited. Here, we present a framework using existing, available biological data to design an implementable, comprehensive multispecies connectivity plan. This framework uses a scenario-based approach to consider how ecosystems, habitats, and species may need to adapt to future conditions with an ensemble of connectivity models. We use the south coast ecoregion of California as an example to evaluate and prioritize linkages by combining linked metapopulation models and key landscape features (e.g., conservation planning status and implementation feasibility) to identify and prioritize a multispecies linkage network. Our analyses identified approximately 30,000 km2 of land, roughly one-fifth of our study area, where actions to preserve or enhance connectivity may support climate adaptation, nearly half of which is already conserved. By developing and implementing a dynamic connectivity assessment with an eye towards projected changes, our analysis demonstrates how dynamic connectivity can be integrated into feasible regional conservation and management plans that account for demographic as well as landscape change. We observed overlap across multiple models, reinforcing the importance of areas that appeared across methods. We also identified unique areas important for connectivity captured by our complementary models. By integrating multiple approaches, the resultant linkage network is robust, building on the strengths of a variety of methods to identify model consensus and reduce uncertainty. By linking quantitative connectivity metrics with prioritized areas for conservation, our approach supports transparent and robust decision-making for landscape planning, despite uncertainties of climate and land-use change.
It is frequently assumed that phenotypic plasticity can be very advantageous for plants, because it may increase environmental tolerance (fitness homeostasis). This should, however, only hold for ...plastic responses that are adaptive, i.e. increase fitness. Numerous studies have shown shade-induced increases in specific leaf area (SLA), and there is wide consensus that this plastic response optimizes light capture and thus has to be adaptive. However, it has rarely been tested whether this is really the case.
In order to identify whether SLA plasticity does contribute to the maintenance of high biomass of plant species under shaded conditions, a meta-analytical approach was employed. The data set included 280 species and 467 individual studies from 32 publications and two unpublished experiments.
Plants increased their SLA by 55·4 % on average when shaded, while they decreased their biomass by 59·9 %. Species with a high SLA under high-light control conditions showed a significantly greater ability to maintain biomass production under shade overall. However, in contrast to the expectation of a positive relationship between SLA plasticity and maintenance of plant biomass, the results indicated that species with greater SLA plasticity were less able to maintain biomass under shade.
Although a high SLA per se contributes to biomass homeostasis, there was no evidence that plasticity in SLA contributes to this. Therefore, it is argued that some of the plastic changes that are frequently thought to be adaptive might simply reflect passive responses to the environment, or result as by-products of adaptive plastic responses in other traits.
1. A large number of alien plant species have been introduced as ornamental garden plants to Europe, but relatively few have become invasive. Low climatic suitability may be limiting the current ...invasion potential of many alien ornamental species. However, with ongoing disturbance and climate change, this barrier may be reduced for some species. 2. Here, we tested how colonization ability (a prerequisite for invasion) of frequently planted alien ornamentals depends on disturbance and heating, and on their species characteristics. We sowed seeds of 37 non-naturalized alien herbaceous garden-plant species into native grassland plots with and without disturbance, and with and without infrared-heating lamps. To assess whether their responses differ from those within the regional wild flora, we also sowed 14 native species and 12 naturalized alien species. During 2 years, we assessed the likelihoods of germination, first-year survival, second-year survival and flowering of these 63 study species. 3. The heating treatment, which also reduced soil moisture, decreased all measures of colonization success, but more so for sown native species than for the non-naturalized and naturalized alien ones. The disturbance treatment increased colonization success, and because heating decreased productivity of the undisturbed grassland plots, it also increased invasibility of these plots. Average colonization success of non-naturalized aliens was reduced by heating, but some species were not affected or performed even better with heating, particularly those with an annual life span and a high seed mass. Winter hardiness improved colonization ability of non-naturalized aliens, but this advantage was reduced in the heated plots. 4. Synthesis. Disturbance increased and heating decreased the absolute colonization success of most of the 63 species sown. However, heating had stronger adverse effects on the resident grassland and sown native species than either type of sown alien species. Together, these results suggest that some alien plants may have greater colonization success relative to native plants under a warmer climate.
Most invasive plants have been originally introduced for horticultural purposes. Still, most alien garden plants have not naturalized yet, probably due in part to inadequate climatic conditions. ...Climate change may alter this, but few experimental studies have addressed this for non‐naturalized alien garden plants, and those that have, addressed only singular aspects of climate change.
In a greenhouse experiment, we examined the performance of nine non‐naturalized alien herbaceous garden plants of varying climatic origins in response to simulated climate warming and reduced water availability, in a factorial design, as projected for southern Germany. To assess their invasion potential, we grew the species in competition with resident native and already‐naturalized alien species.
Reduced watering negatively affected non‐naturalized garden plants, as well as the native and naturalized competitors, particularly at higher temperatures. However, non‐naturalized aliens performed better relative to competitors when temperatures increased. Naturalized and native resident competitor responses to climate change were both negative, but across climate treatments, non‐naturalized aliens, irrespective of their climatic origins, performed better against native than against naturalized competitors.
Synthesis. We conclude that relative performance compared to resident species may increase for non‐naturalized alien garden plants under climate change, as resident species become less competitive. Ongoing climate change is therefore likely to promote naturalization of commonly planted alien herbaceous species.
We conclude that relative performance compared to resident species may increase for non‐naturalized alien garden plants under climate change, as resident species become less competitive. Ongoing climate change is therefore likely to promote naturalization of commonly planted alien herbaceous species.
Ornamental horticulture is the most important pathway for alien plant introductions worldwide, and consequently, invasive spread of introduced plants often begins in urban areas. Although most ...introduced ornamental garden-plant species are locally not naturalized yet, many of them have shown invasion potential elsewhere in the world, and might naturalize when climate changes. We inventoried the planted flora of 50 public and 61 private gardens in Radolfzell, a small city in southern Germany, to investigate whether local naturalization success of garden plants is associated with their current planting frequency, climatic suitability (as assessed with climatic niche modelling) and known naturalization status somewhere in the world. We identified 954 introduced garden-plant species, of which 48 are already naturalized in Radolfzell and 120 in other parts of Germany. All currently naturalized garden plants in Radolfzell have a climatic suitability probability of ≥ 0.75 and are naturalized in ≥ 13 out of 843 regions globally. These values are significantly higher than those of garden plants that have not become locally naturalized yet. Current planting frequencies, however, were not related to current naturalization success. Using the identified local naturalization thresholds of climatic suitability and global naturalization frequency, and climate projections for the years 2050 and 2070, we identified 45 garden-plant species that are currently not naturalized in Radolfzell but are likely to become so in the future. Although our approach cannot replace a full risk assessment, it is well-suited and applicable as one element of a screening or horizon scanning-type approach.
Aim
Land use change, climate change, and shifts to disturbance regimes make successful wildlife management challenging, particularly when ongoing urbanization constrains habitat and movement. ...Preserving and maintaining landscape connectivity is a potential strategy to support wildlife responding to these stressors. Using a novel model framework, we determined the population‐level benefit of a set of identified potential corridors for spotted owl population viability.
Location
Southern California, United States.
Methods
Combining habitat suitability and dynamic metapopulation models, we compared the benefit of corridors to the Southern California spotted owl population, measured as the increase in the expected minimum abundance, both now and under a future climate. Our approach considered key corridor characteristics important to conservation decisions, namely corridor irreplaceability and local population network benefit.
Results
We identified two corridors likely to increase Southern California spotted owl expected minimum abundance under current climate conditions. At the regional scale, of the 27 corridors evaluated, one corridor was irreplaceable (i.e., no other corridors in the network could provide a similar increase in abundance when the irreplaceable corridor was removed) and one corridor was identified as redundant (i.e., remaining corridors in the network can provide some of the increases in abundance offered by the removed corridor). Both putative corridors connected two large, populous and similarly sized patches. Additionally, we identified two more corridors at the local scale. We found that, under climate change, population declines may limit the benefit of connectivity for a range‐restricted species like the spotted owl.
Main conclusions
Our analytical approach highlights important criteria for corridor identification and prioritization, namely irreplaceability versus redundancy, local versus regional benefit, and corridor impact in a changing landscape. With the capability of incorporating estimated functional connectivity into population dynamics, our modelling framework advances connectivity decision‐making for other species of conservation concern and archetypal taxa within ecological communities.
Across the globe, invasive alien species cause severe environmental changes, altering species composition and ecosystem functions. So far, mountain areas have mostly been spared from large‐scale ...invasions. However, climate change, land‐use abandonment, the development of tourism and the increasing ornamental trade will weaken the barriers to invasions in these systems. Understanding how alien species will react and how native communities will influence their success is thus of prime importance in a management perspective. Here, we used a spatially and temporally explicit simulation model to forecast invasion risks in a protected mountain area in the French Alps under future conditions. We combined scenarios of climate change, land‐use abandonment and tourism‐linked increases in propagule pressure to test if the spread of alien species in the region will increase in the future. We modelled already naturalized alien species and new ornamental plants, accounting for interactions among global change components, and also competition with the native vegetation. Our results show that propagule pressure and climate change will interact to increase overall species richness of both naturalized aliens and new ornamentals, as well as their upper elevational limits and regional range‐sizes. Under climate change, woody aliens are predicted to more than double in range‐size and herbaceous species to occupy up to 20% of the park area. In contrast, land‐use abandonment will open new invasion opportunities for woody aliens, but decrease invasion probability for naturalized and ornamental alien herbs as a consequence of colonization by native trees. This emphasizes the importance of interactions with the native vegetation either for facilitating or potentially for curbing invasions. Overall, our work highlights an additional and previously underestimated threat for the fragile mountain flora of the Alps already facing climate changes, land‐use transformations and overexploitation by tourism.
Climate change, land‐use abandonment, tourism and increasing ornamental trade are currently weakening barriers to alien plant invasions in mountain areas. We used a dynamic simulation model to forecast future invasion risks in a protected area in the French Alps, showing that propagule pressure and climate change will increase species richness, maximum elevation and regional range‐sizes of established aliens and newly introduced ornamental plants. Abandonment will open opportunities for woody aliens, but decrease invasion probability for herbs as a consequence of colonization by native trees. Our work anticipates a previously underestimated threat for the fragile mountain flora of the Alps.
1. Most naturalised and invasive alien plant species were originally introduced to regions for horticultural purposes. However, many regions now face an invasion debt from ornamental alien species, ...which have not yet naturalised. In this regard, climate change represents a threat as it may lower the barriers to naturalisation for some ornamental alien species. Identifying those species is extremely important for anticipating impending invasions. 2. To identify predictors of naturalisation, we modelled the effects of climate, nursery availability and species characteristics on the current European naturalisation success of 2,073 ornamental aliens commonly planted in European gardens. We then used the resulting model together with climate projections for 2050 to forecast future naturalisation risks for the 1,583 species not yet naturalised in Europe. 3. We found that non-European naturalised range size, climatic suitability, propagule pressure, having a dioecious sexual system and plant height jointly explained current naturalisation success in Europe. By 2050, naturalisation probability projections increased by more than 0.1 for 41 species, and only decreased by more than 0.1 for one species. 4. Policy implications. Using predictions based on our integrated model of alien ornamental naturalisation success, we identified species with high future naturalisation risk and species with high projected increases in naturalisation potential in Europe under climate change. This species list allows for prioritisation of monitoring and regulation of ornamental plants to mitigate the invasion debt.
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