Summary We systematically reviewed reports about determinants of HIV infection in injecting drug users from 2000 to 2009, classifying findings by type of environmental influence. We then modelled ...changes in risk environments in regions with severe HIV epidemics associated with injecting drug use. Of 94 studies identified, 25 intentionally examined risk environments. Modelling of HIV epidemics showed substantial heterogeneity in the number of HIV infections that are attributed to injecting drug use and unprotected sex. We estimate that, during 2010–15, HIV prevalence could be reduced by 41% in Odessa (Ukraine), 43% in Karachi (Pakistan), and 30% in Nairobi (Kenya) through a 60% reduction of the unmet need of programmes for opioid substitution, needle exchange, and antiretroviral therapy. Mitigation of patient transition to injecting drugs from non-injecting forms could avert a 98% increase in HIV infections in Karachi; whereas elimination of laws prohibiting opioid substitution with concomitant scale-up could prevent 14% of HIV infections in Nairobi. Optimisation of effectiveness and coverage of interventions is crucial for regions with rapidly growing epidemics. Delineation of environmental risk factors provides a crucial insight into HIV prevention. Evidence-informed, rights-based, combination interventions protecting IDUs' access to HIV prevention and treatment could substantially curtail HIV epidemics.
We systematically reviewed reports about determinants of HIV infection in injecting drug users from 2000 to 2009, classifying findings by type of environmental influence. We then modelled changes in ...risk environments in regions with severe HIV epidemics associated with injecting drug use. Of 94 studies identified, 25 intentionally examined risk environments. Modelling of HIV epidemics showed substantial heterogeneity in the number of HIV infections that are attributed to injecting drug use and unprotected sex. We estimate that, during 2010-15, HIV prevalence could be reduced by 41% in Odessa (Ukraine), 43% in Karachi (Pakistan), and 30% in Nairobi (Kenya) through a 60% reduction of the unmet need of programmes for opioid substitution, needle exchange, and antiretroviral therapy. Mitigation of patient transition to injecting drugs from non-injecting forms could avert a 98% increase in HIV infections in Karachi; whereas elimination of laws prohibiting opioid substitution with concomitant scale-up could prevent 14% of HIV infections in Nairobi. Optimisation of effectiveness and coverage of interventions is crucial for regions with rapidly growing epidemics. Delineation of environmental risk factors provides a crucial insight into HIV prevention. Evidence-informed, rights-based, combination interventions protecting IDUs' access to HIV prevention and treatment could substantially curtail HIV epidemics. PUBLICATION ABSTRACT
Evidence-informed and human rights-based combination prevention combines behavioural, biomedical, and structural interventions to address both the immediate risks and underlying causes of ...vulnerability to HIV infection, and the pathways that link them. Because these are context-specific, no single prescription or standard package will apply universally. Anchored in 'know your epidemic' estimates of where the next 1000 infections will occur and 'know your response' analyses of resource allocation and programming gaps, combination prevention strategies seek to realign programme priorities for maximum effect to reduce epidemic reproductive rates at local, regional, and national levels. Effective prevention means tailoring programmes to local epidemics and ensuring that components are delivered with the intensity, quality, and scale necessary to achieve intended effects. Structural interventions, addressing the social, economic, cultural, and legal constraints that create HIV risk environments and undermine the agency of individuals to protect themselves and others, are also public goods in their own right. Applying the principles of combination prevention systematically and consistently in HIV programme planning, with due attention to context, can increase HIV programme effectiveness. Better outcome and impact measurement using multiple methods and data triangulation can build the evidence base on synergies between the components of combination prevention at individual, group, and societal levels, facilitating iterative knowledge translation within and among programmes.
Cost-effectiveness studies inform resource allocation, strategy, and policy development. However, due to their complexity, dependence on assumptions made, and inherent uncertainty, synthesising, and ...generalising the results can be difficult. We assess cost-effectiveness models evaluating expected health gains and costs of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) interventions.
We conducted a systematic review comparing epidemiological and economic assumptions of cost-effectiveness studies using various modelling approaches. The following databases were searched (until January 2013): PubMed/Medline, ISI Web of Knowledge, Centre for Reviews and Dissemination databases, EconLIT, and region-specific databases. We included modelling studies reporting both cost and expected impact of a PrEP roll-out. We explored five issues: prioritisation strategies, adherence, behaviour change, toxicity, and resistance. Of 961 studies retrieved, 13 were included. Studies modelled populations (heterosexual couples, men who have sex with men, people who inject drugs) in generalised and concentrated epidemics from Southern Africa (including South Africa), Ukraine, USA, and Peru. PrEP was found to have the potential to be a cost-effective addition to HIV prevention programmes in specific settings. The extent of the impact of PrEP depended upon assumptions made concerning cost, epidemic context, programme coverage, prioritisation strategies, and individual-level adherence. Delivery of PrEP to key populations at highest risk of HIV exposure appears the most cost-effective strategy. Limitations of this review include the partial geographical coverage, our inability to perform a meta-analysis, and the paucity of information available exploring trade-offs between early treatment and PrEP.
Our review identifies the main considerations to address in assessing cost-effectiveness analyses of a PrEP intervention--cost, epidemic context, individual adherence level, PrEP programme coverage, and prioritisation strategy. Cost-effectiveness studies indicating where resources can be applied for greatest impact are essential to guide resource allocation decisions; however, the results of such analyses must be considered within the context of the underlying assumptions made. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.
Summary Male circumcision provides long-term indirect protection to women by reducing the risk of heterosexual men becoming infected with HIV. In this Review, we summarise the evidence for a direct ...effect of male circumcision on the risk of women becoming infected with HIV. We identified 19 epidemiological analyses, from 11 study populations, of the association of male circumcision and HIV risk in women. A random-effects meta-analysis of data from the one randomised controlled trial and six longitudinal analyses showed little evidence that male circumcision directly reduces risk of HIV in women (summary relative risk 0·80, 95% CI 0·53–1·36). Definitive data would come from a further randomised controlled trial of circumcision among men infected with HIV in serodiscordant heterosexual relationships, but this would involve enrolling about 10 000 couples and is likely to be logistically unfeasible. As circumcision services for HIV prevention are scaled-up in high HIV prevalence settings, rapid integration with existing prevention strategies would maximise benefits for both men and women. Rigorous monitoring is essential to ensure that any adverse effects on women are detected and minimised.
Turning the Tide Against HIV Shattock, Robin J.; Warren, Mitchell; McCormack, Sheena ...
Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science),
07/2011, Letnik:
333, Številka:
6038
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Potentially beneficial combinations of prevention options need innovative trials to assess multiple tools against a common control.
Although the annual number of new HIV infections (incidence) ...declined from a peak of 3.5 million in 1996 to 2.6 million in 2009, the total number living with HIV continues to rise as more people live longer. While 6.6 million people with HIV are now on antiretroviral treatment (ART), 9 million are waiting to receive it, with two people newly infected for every person starting ART (
1
). Twenty million more people are predicted to acquire HIV by 2031, which will increase treatment costs up to $35 billion a year (
2
). This raises issues of sustainability. Thus, reducing HIV incidence is critical to keeping alive the promise of universal access to HIV prevention, treatment, care, and support.
Over 11 million voluntary medical male circumcisions (VMMC) have been performed of the projected 20.3 million needed to reach 80% adult male circumcision prevalence in priority sub-Saharan African ...countries. Striking numbers of adolescent males, outside the 15-49-year-old age target, have been accessing VMMC services. What are the implications of overall progress in scale-up to date? Can mathematical modeling provide further insights on how to efficiently reach the male circumcision coverage levels needed to create and sustain further reductions in HIV incidence to make AIDS no longer a public health threat by 2030? Considering ease of implementation and cultural acceptability, decision makers may also value the estimates that mathematical models can generate of immediacy of impact, cost-effectiveness, and magnitude of impact resulting from different policy choices. This supplement presents the results of mathematical modeling using the Decision Makers' Program Planning Tool Version 2.0 (DMPPT 2.0), the Actuarial Society of South Africa (ASSA2008) model, and the age structured mathematical (ASM) model. These models are helping countries examine the potential effects on program impact and cost-effectiveness of prioritizing specific subpopulations for VMMC services, for example, by client age, HIV-positive status, risk group, and geographical location. The modeling also examines long-term sustainability strategies, such as adolescent and/or early infant male circumcision, to preserve VMMC coverage gains achieved during rapid scale-up. The 2016-2021 UNAIDS strategy target for VMMC is an additional 27 million VMMC in high HIV-prevalence settings by 2020, as part of access to integrated sexual and reproductive health services for men. To achieve further scale-up, a combination of evidence, analysis, and impact estimates can usefully guide strategic planning and funding of VMMC services and related demand-creation strategies in priority countries. Mid-course corrections now can improve cost-effectiveness and scale to achieve the impact needed to help turn the HIV pandemic on its head within 15 years.
There is strong evidence showing that voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) reduces HIV incidence in men. To inform the VMMC policies and goals of 13 priority countries in eastern and southern ...Africa, we estimate the impact and cost of scaling up adult VMMC using updated, country-specific data.
We use the Decision Makers' Program Planning Tool (DMPPT) to model the impact and cost of scaling up adult VMMC in Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Rwanda, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Nyanza Province in Kenya. We use epidemiologic and demographic data from recent household surveys for each country. The cost of VMMC ranges from US$65.85 to US$95.15 per VMMC performed, based on a cost assessment of VMMC services aligned with the World Health Organization's considerations of models for optimizing volume and efficiencies. Results from the DMPPT models suggest that scaling up adult VMMC to reach 80% coverage in the 13 countries by 2015 would entail performing 20.34 million circumcisions between 2011 and 2015 and an additional 8.42 million between 2016 and 2025 (to maintain the 80% coverage). Such a scale-up would result in averting 3.36 million new HIV infections through 2025. In addition, while the model shows that this scale-up would cost a total of US$2 billion between 2011 and 2025, it would result in net savings (due to averted treatment and care costs) amounting to US$16.51 billion.
This study suggests that rapid scale-up of VMMC in eastern and southern Africa is warranted based on the likely impact on the region's HIV epidemics and net savings. Scaling up of safe VMMC in eastern and southern Africa will lead to a substantial reduction in HIV infections in the countries and lower health system costs through averted HIV care costs.
HIV testing services (HTS) are a crucial component of national HIV responses. Learning one's HIV diagnosis is the entry point to accessing life-saving antiretroviral treatment and care. Recognizing ...the critical role of HTS, the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) launched the 90-90-90 targets stipulating that by 2020, 90% of people living with HIV know their status, 90% of those who know their status receive antiretroviral therapy, and 90% of those on treatment have a suppressed viral load. Countries will need to regularly monitor progress on these three indicators. Estimating the proportion of people living with HIV who know their status (i.e. the 'first 90'), however, is difficult.
We developed a mathematical model (henceforth referred to as 'Shiny90') that formally synthesizes population-based survey and HTS program data to estimate HIV status awareness over time. The proposed model uses country-specific HIV epidemic parameters from the standard UNAIDS Spectrum model to produce outputs that are consistent with other national HIV estimates. Shiny90 provides estimates of HIV testing history, diagnosis rates, and knowledge of HIV status by age and sex. We validate Shiny90 using both in-sample comparisons and out-of-sample predictions using data from three countries: Côte d'Ivoire, Malawi, and Mozambique.
In-sample comparisons suggest that Shiny90 can accurately reproduce longitudinal sex-specific trends in HIV testing. Out-of-sample predictions of the fraction of people living with HIV ever tested over a 4-to-6-year time horizon are also in good agreement with empirical survey estimates. Importantly, out-of-sample predictions of HIV knowledge of status are consistent (i.e. within 4% points) with those of the fully calibrated model in the three countries when HTS program data are included. The model's predictions of knowledge of status are higher than available self-reported HIV awareness estimates, however, suggesting - in line with previous studies - that these self-reports could be affected by nondisclosure of HIV status awareness.
Knowledge of HIV status is a key indicator to monitor progress, identify bottlenecks, and target HIV responses. Shiny90 can help countries track progress towards their 'first 90' by leveraging surveys of HIV testing behaviors and annual HTS program data.
Six colleagues working in the HIV field were killed when their flight en route to Kuala Lumpur was shot down over the Ukraine. This report is drawn from the in memoriam keynote opening address given ...at the 12th International AIDS Impact conference in Amsterdam in 2015. It highlights their tangible and valued roles in the HIV response and looks forward to the road ahead. It describes the ways in which we can build on their legacy to address current global challenges in HIV prevention and treatment and to mobilise the intensified, focused resources that are needed to turn the HIV epidemic on its head.
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