High-sensitivity cardiac troponin assays enable myocardial infarction to be ruled out earlier, but the safety and efficacy of this approach is uncertain. We investigated whether an early rule-out ...pathway is safe and effective for patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome.
We performed a stepped-wedge cluster randomized controlled trial in the emergency departments of 7 acute care hospitals in Scotland. Consecutive patients presenting with suspected acute coronary syndrome between December 2014 and December 2016 were included. Sites were randomized to implement an early rule-out pathway where myocardial infarction was excluded if high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I concentrations were <5 ng/L at presentation. During a previous validation phase, myocardial infarction was ruled out when troponin concentrations were <99th percentile at 6 to 12 hours after symptom onset. The coprimary outcome was length of stay (efficacy) and myocardial infarction or cardiac death after discharge at 30 days (safety). Patients were followed for 1 year to evaluate safety and other secondary outcomes.
We enrolled 31 492 patients (59±17 years of age mean±SD; 45% women) with troponin concentrations <99th percentile at presentation. Length of stay was reduced from 10.1±4.1 to 6.8±3.9 hours (adjusted geometric mean ratio, 0.78 95% CI, 0.73-0.83;
<0.001) after implementation and the proportion of patients discharged increased from 50% to 71% (adjusted odds ratio, 1.59 95% CI, 1.45-1.75). Noninferiority was not demonstrated for the 30-day safety outcome (upper limit of 1-sided 95% CI for adjusted risk difference, 0.70% noninferiority margin 0.50%;
=0.068), but the observed differences favored the early rule-out pathway (0.4% 57/14 700 versus 0.3% 56/16 792). At 1 year, the safety outcome occurred in 2.7% (396/14 700) and 1.8% (307/16 792) of patients before and after implementation (adjusted odds ratio, 1.02 95% CI, 0.74-1.40;
=0.894), and there were no differences in hospital reattendance or all-cause mortality.
Implementation of an early rule-out pathway for myocardial infarction reduced length of stay and hospital admission. Although noninferiority for the safety outcome was not demonstrated at 30 days, there was no increase in cardiac events at 1 year. Adoption of this pathway would have major benefits for patients and health care providers. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT03005158.
The optimal timing of aortic valve replacement in asymptomatic patients with aortic stenosis is uncertain. Replacement fibrosis, as assessed by midwall (nonischemic) late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) ...on cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging, is an irreversible marker of left ventricular decompensation in aortic stenosis. Once established, it progresses rapidly and is associated with poor long-term prognosis in a dose-dependent manner.
The objective of this multicenter prospective randomized controlled trial is to determine whether early aortic valve replacement in asymptomatic patients with severe aortic stenosis can improve the adverse prognosis associated with midwall LGE. Patients will be screened for likelihood of having LGE with electrocardiography or high-sensitivity troponin I. Those at high risk will proceed to CMR imaging. Approximately 400 patients with midwall LGE will be randomized 1:1 to early valve replacement or routine care. Those who do not exhibit midwall LGE will continue with routine care and be randomized to a study registry or no further follow-up. Follow-up will be annual for approximately 3 years until the number of required outcome events is achieved. The primary endpoint is a composite of all-cause mortality and unplanned aortic stenosis–related hospitalization. The expected event rate is 25.0% in the routine care arm and 13.4% in the early intervention arm over the first 2 years; 88 observed primary outcome events will give 90% power at 5% significance level. Key secondary endpoints include all-cause mortality, sudden cardiac death, stroke, and symptomatic status.
The EVOLVED trial is the first multicenter randomized controlled trial to compare early aortic valve replacement to routine care in asymptomatic patients with severe aortic stenosis and midwall LGE.
Abstract
Aims
Whether a single cardiac troponin measurement can safely rule out myocardial infarction in patients presenting within a few hours of symptom onset is uncertain. The study aim was to ...assess the performance of troponin in early presenters.
Methods and results
In patients with possible myocardial infarction, the diagnostic performance of a single measurement of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I at presentation was evaluated and externally validated in those tested ≤3, 4–12, and >12 h from symptom onset. The limit-of-detection (2 ng/L), rule-out (5 ng/L), and sex-specific 99th centile (16 ng/L in women; 34 ng/L in men) thresholds were compared. In 41 103 consecutive patients 60 (17) years, 46% women, 12 595 (31%) presented within 3 h, and 3728 (9%) had myocardial infarction. In those presenting ≤3 h, a threshold of 2 ng/L had greater sensitivity and negative predictive value 99.4% (95% confidence interval 99.2%–99.5%) and 99.7% (99.6%–99.8%) compared with 5 ng/L 96.5% (96.2%–96.8%) and 99.3% (99.1%–99.4%). In those presenting ≥3 h, the sensitivity and negative predictive value were similar for both thresholds. The sensitivity of the 99th centile was low in early and late presenters at 71.4% (70.6%–72.2%) and 92.5% (92.0%–93.0%), respectively. Findings were consistent in an external validation cohort of 7088 patients.
Conclusion
In early presenters, a single measurement of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I below the limit of detection may facilitate the safe rule out of myocardial infarction. The 99th centile should not be used to rule out myocardial infarction at presentation even in those presenting later following symptom onset.
Structured Graphical Abstract
Structured Graphical Abstract
Three panel plot showing the sensitivity (left), negative predictive value (middle) and proportion of patients (right) with cardiac troponin concentrations below 2 ng/L (red), 5 ng/L (blue), and the sex-specific 99th centile (grey) at presentation in patients presenting at or within 3 h of the onset of symptoms of myocardial infarction.
Sars-CoV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19, has led to more than 226,000 deaths in the UK and multiple risk factors for mortality including age, sex and deprivation have been identified. This study ...aimed to identify which individual indicators of the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD), an area-based deprivation index, were predictive of mortality.
This was a prospective cohort study of anonymised electronic health records of 710 consecutive patients hospitalised with Covid-19 disease between March and June 2020 in the Lothian Region of Southeast Scotland. Data sources included automatically extracted data from national electronic platforms and manually extracted data from individual admission records. Exposure variables of interest were SIMD quintiles and 12 indicators of deprivation deemed clinically relevant selected from the SIMD. Our primary outcome was mortality. Age and sex adjusted univariable and multivariable analyses were used to determine measures of association between exposures of interest and the primary outcome.
After adjusting for age and sex, we found an increased risk of mortality in the more deprived SIMD quintiles 1 and 3 (OR 1.75, CI 0.99-3.08, p = 0.053 and OR 2.17, CI 1.22-3.86, p = 0.009, respectively), but this association was not upheld in our multivariable model containing age, sex, Performance Status and clinical parameters of severity at admission. Of the 12 pre-selected indicators of deprivation, two were associated with greater mortality in our multivariable analysis: income deprivation rate categorised by quartile (Q4 (most deprived): 2.11 (1.20-3.77) p = 0.011)) and greater than expected hospitalisations due to alcohol per SIMD data zone (1.96 (1.28-3.00) p = 0.002)).
SIMD as an aggregate measure of deprivation was not predictive of mortality in our cohort when other exposure measures were accounted for. However, we identified a two-fold increased risk of mortality in patients residing in areas with greater income-deprivation and/or number of hospitalisations due to alcohol. In areas where aggregate measures fail to capture pockets of deprivation, exploring the impact of specific SIMD indicators may be helpful in targeting resources to residents at risk of poorer outcomes from Covid-19.
Accurate diagnosis in patients with suspected coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is essential to guide treatment and limit spread of the virus. The combined nasal and throat swab is used widely, but ...its diagnostic performance is uncertain.
In a prospective, multi-centre, cohort study conducted in secondary and tertiary care hospitals in Scotland, we evaluated the combined nasal and throat swab with reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) in consecutive patients admitted to hospital with suspected COVID-19. Diagnostic performance of the index and serial tests was evaluated for a primary outcome of confirmed or probable COVID-19, and a secondary outcome of confirmed COVID-19 on serial testing. The diagnosis was adjudicated by a panel, who recorded clinical, laboratory and radiological features blinded to the test results.
We enrolled 1368 consecutive patients (median age 68 interquartile range, IQR 53-80 years, 47% women) who underwent a total of 3822 tests (median 2 IQR 1-3 tests per patient). The primary outcome occurred in 36% (496/1368), of whom 65% (323/496) and 35% (173/496) had confirmed and probable COVID-19, respectively. The index test was positive in 255/496 (51%) patients with the primary outcome, giving a sensitivity and specificity of 51.4% (95% confidence interval CI 48.8 to 54.1%) and 99.5% (95% CI 99.0 to 99.8%). Sensitivity increased in those undergoing 2, 3 or 4 tests to 60.1% (95% CI 56.7 to 63.4%), 68.3% (95% CI 64.0 to 72.3%) and 77.6% (95% CI 72.7 to 81.9%), respectively. The sensitivity of the index test was 78.9% (95% CI 74.4 to 83.2%) for the secondary outcome of confirmed COVID-19 on serial testing.
In patients admitted to hospital, a single combined nasal and throat swab with RT-PCR for SARS-CoV-2 has excellent specificity, but limited diagnostic sensitivity for COVID-19. Diagnostic performance is significantly improved by repeated testing.
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