To derive and validate a risk prediction algorithm to estimate hospital admission and mortality outcomes from coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) in adults.
Population based cohort study.
QResearch ...database, comprising 1205 general practices in England with linkage to covid-19 test results, Hospital Episode Statistics, and death registry data. 6.08 million adults aged 19-100 years were included in the derivation dataset and 2.17 million in the validation dataset. The derivation and first validation cohort period was 24 January 2020 to 30 April 2020. The second temporal validation cohort covered the period 1 May 2020 to 30 June 2020.
The primary outcome was time to death from covid-19, defined as death due to confirmed or suspected covid-19 as per the death certification or death occurring in a person with confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in the period 24 January to 30 April 2020. The secondary outcome was time to hospital admission with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. Models were fitted in the derivation cohort to derive risk equations using a range of predictor variables. Performance, including measures of discrimination and calibration, was evaluated in each validation time period.
4384 deaths from covid-19 occurred in the derivation cohort during follow-up and 1722 in the first validation cohort period and 621 in the second validation cohort period. The final risk algorithms included age, ethnicity, deprivation, body mass index, and a range of comorbidities. The algorithm had good calibration in the first validation cohort. For deaths from covid-19 in men, it explained 73.1% (95% confidence interval 71.9% to 74.3%) of the variation in time to death (R
); the D statistic was 3.37 (95% confidence interval 3.27 to 3.47), and Harrell's C was 0.928 (0.919 to 0.938). Similar results were obtained for women, for both outcomes, and in both time periods. In the top 5% of patients with the highest predicted risks of death, the sensitivity for identifying deaths within 97 days was 75.7%. People in the top 20% of predicted risk of death accounted for 94% of all deaths from covid-19.
The QCOVID population based risk algorithm performed well, showing very high levels of discrimination for deaths and hospital admissions due to covid-19. The absolute risks presented, however, will change over time in line with the prevailing SARS-C0V-2 infection rate and the extent of social distancing measures in place, so they should be interpreted with caution. The model can be recalibrated for different time periods, however, and has the potential to be dynamically updated as the pandemic evolves.
To derive and validate risk prediction algorithms to estimate the risk of covid-19 related mortality and hospital admission in UK adults after one or two doses of covid-19 vaccination.
Prospective, ...population based cohort study using the QResearch database linked to data on covid-19 vaccination, SARS-CoV-2 results, hospital admissions, systemic anticancer treatment, radiotherapy, and the national death and cancer registries.
Adults aged 19-100 years with one or two doses of covid-19 vaccination between 8 December 2020 and 15 June 2021.
Primary outcome was covid-19 related death. Secondary outcome was covid-19 related hospital admission. Outcomes were assessed from 14 days after each vaccination dose. Models were fitted in the derivation cohort to derive risk equations using a range of predictor variables. Performance was evaluated in a separate validation cohort of general practices.
Of 6 952 440 vaccinated patients in the derivation cohort, 5 150 310 (74.1%) had two vaccine doses. Of 2031 covid-19 deaths and 1929 covid-19 hospital admissions, 81 deaths (4.0%) and 71 admissions (3.7%) occurred 14 days or more after the second vaccine dose. The risk algorithms included age, sex, ethnic origin, deprivation, body mass index, a range of comorbidities, and SARS-CoV-2 infection rate. Incidence of covid-19 mortality increased with age and deprivation, male sex, and Indian and Pakistani ethnic origin. Cause specific hazard ratios were highest for patients with Down's syndrome (12.7-fold increase), kidney transplantation (8.1-fold), sickle cell disease (7.7-fold), care home residency (4.1-fold), chemotherapy (4.3-fold), HIV/AIDS (3.3-fold), liver cirrhosis (3.0-fold), neurological conditions (2.6-fold), recent bone marrow transplantation or a solid organ transplantation ever (2.5-fold), dementia (2.2-fold), and Parkinson's disease (2.2-fold). Other conditions with increased risk (ranging from 1.2-fold to 2.0-fold increases) included chronic kidney disease, blood cancer, epilepsy, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, coronary heart disease, stroke, atrial fibrillation, heart failure, thromboembolism, peripheral vascular disease, and type 2 diabetes. A similar pattern of associations was seen for covid-19 related hospital admissions. No evidence indicated that associations differed after the second dose, although absolute risks were reduced. The risk algorithm explained 74.1% (95% confidence interval 71.1% to 77.0%) of the variation in time to covid-19 death in the validation cohort. Discrimination was high, with a D statistic of 3.46 (95% confidence interval 3.19 to 3.73) and C statistic of 92.5. Performance was similar after each vaccine dose. In the top 5% of patients with the highest predicted covid-19 mortality risk, sensitivity for identifying covid-19 deaths within 70 days was 78.7%.
This population based risk algorithm performed well showing high levels of discrimination for identifying those patients at highest risk of covid-19 related death and hospital admission after vaccination.
Limited access to testing early in the outbreak, false negative results for nasopharyngeal swabs in early stages of disease, and presentation with gastrointestinal symptoms may have led to some ...patients with COVID-19 being misclassified and placed in non-COVID-19 areas with different infection prevention control processes.3 Enteric features, and the ability of SARS-CoV-2 to persist on surfaces, raise the possibility of faecal-oral transmission in care settings under severe pressure, although the role of this transmission route is uncertain.5 As SARS-CoV-2 is likely to persist as an endemic or seasonal virus in coming years, it is critical to use the lessons learned so far in the pandemic to minimise the burden of hospital-acquired infections, and to consider new approaches to reduce the burden further. Unlike at the beginning of the pandemic, there are opportunities to pre-empt hospital-acquired infections and break chains of transmission through regular patient, resident, and staff testing including point-of-care diagnostics, as recently introduced for NHS staff, coupled with robust hospital infection prevention and control policies that include staff vaccination, environmental disinfection, and appropriate isolation, all supported by sentinel monitoring systems. PJMO reports personal fees for consultancy from Janssen and from the European Respiratory Society; grants from the MRC and Wellcome; funding from the EU and the European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations for the respiratory syncytial virus consortium in Europe; and funding from the NIHR, the MRC, and GSK to the EMINENT Network.
Summary Perforated peptic ulcer is a common emergency condition worldwide, with associated mortality rates of up to 30%. A scarcity of high-quality studies about the condition limits the knowledge ...base for clinical decision making, but a few published randomised trials are available. Although Helicobacter pylori and use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs are common causes, demographic differences in age, sex, perforation location, and underlying causes exist between countries, and mortality rates also vary. Clinical prediction rules are used, but accuracy varies with study population. Early surgery, either by laparoscopic or open repair, and proper sepsis management are essential for good outcome. Selected patients can be managed non-operatively or with novel endoscopic approaches, but validation of such methods in trials is needed. Quality of care, sepsis care bundles, and postoperative monitoring need further assessment. Adequate trials with low risk of bias are urgently needed to provide better evidence. We summarise the evidence for perforated peptic ulcer management and identify directions for future clinical research.
AbstractObjectiveTo characterise the clinical features of patients admitted to hospital with coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) in the United Kingdom during the growth phase of the first wave of ...this outbreak who were enrolled in the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infections Consortium (ISARIC) World Health Organization (WHO) Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK (CCP-UK) study, and to explore risk factors associated with mortality in hospital.DesignProspective observational cohort study with rapid data gathering and near real time analysis.Setting208 acute care hospitals in England, Wales, and Scotland between 6 February and 19 April 2020. A case report form developed by ISARIC and WHO was used to collect clinical data. A minimal follow-up time of two weeks (to 3 May 2020) allowed most patients to complete their hospital admission.Participants20 133 hospital inpatients with covid-19.Main outcome measuresAdmission to critical care (high dependency unit or intensive care unit) and mortality in hospital.ResultsThe median age of patients admitted to hospital with covid-19, or with a diagnosis of covid-19 made in hospital, was 73 years (interquartile range 58-82, range 0-104). More men were admitted than women (men 60%, n=12 068; women 40%, n=8065). The median duration of symptoms before admission was 4 days (interquartile range 1-8). The commonest comorbidities were chronic cardiac disease (31%, 5469/17 702), uncomplicated diabetes (21%, 3650/17 599), non-asthmatic chronic pulmonary disease (18%, 3128/17 634), and chronic kidney disease (16%, 2830/17 506); 23% (4161/18 525) had no reported major comorbidity. Overall, 41% (8199/20 133) of patients were discharged alive, 26% (5165/20 133) died, and 34% (6769/20 133) continued to receive care at the reporting date. 17% (3001/18 183) required admission to high dependency or intensive care units; of these, 28% (826/3001) were discharged alive, 32% (958/3001) died, and 41% (1217/3001) continued to receive care at the reporting date. Of those receiving mechanical ventilation, 17% (276/1658) were discharged alive, 37% (618/1658) died, and 46% (764/1658) remained in hospital. Increasing age, male sex, and comorbidities including chronic cardiac disease, non-asthmatic chronic pulmonary disease, chronic kidney disease, liver disease and obesity were associated with higher mortality in hospital.ConclusionsISARIC WHO CCP-UK is a large prospective cohort study of patients in hospital with covid-19. The study continues to enrol at the time of this report. In study participants, mortality was high, independent risk factors were increasing age, male sex, and chronic comorbidity, including obesity. This study has shown the importance of pandemic preparedness and the need to maintain readiness to launch research studies in response to outbreaks.Study registrationISRCTN66726260.
Evidence is conflicting about how human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) modulates coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We compared the presentation characteristics and outcomes of adults with and ...without HIV who were hospitalized with COVID-19 at 207 centers across the United Kingdom and whose data were prospectively captured by the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) World Health Organization (WHO) Clinical Characterization Protocol (CCP) study.
We used Kaplan-Meier methods and Cox regression to describe the association between HIV status and day-28 mortality, after separate adjustment for sex, ethnicity, age, hospital acquisition of COVID-19 (definite hospital acquisition excluded), presentation date, 10 individual comorbidities, and disease severity at presentation (as defined by hypoxia or oxygen therapy).
Among 47 592 patients, 122 (0.26%) had confirmed HIV infection, and 112/122 (91.8%) had a record of antiretroviral therapy. At presentation, HIV-positive people were younger (median 56 vs 74 years; P < .001) and had fewer comorbidities, more systemic symptoms and higher lymphocyte counts and C-reactive protein levels. The cumulative day-28 mortality was similar in the HIV-positive versus HIV-negative groups (26.7% vs. 32.1%; P = .16), but in those under 60 years of age HIV-positive status was associated with increased mortality (21.3% vs. 9.6%; P < .001 log-rank test). Mortality was higher among people with HIV after adjusting for age (adjusted hazard ratio aHR 1.47, 95% confidence interval CI 1.01-2.14; P = .05), and the association persisted after adjusting for the other variables (aHR 1.69; 95% CI 1.15-2.48; P = .008) and when restricting the analysis to people aged <60 years (aHR 2.87; 95% CI 1.70-4.84; P < .001).
HIV-positive status was associated with an increased risk of day-28 mortality among patients hospitalized for COVID-19.
...we report outcome data for most patients. ...because vaccination data for influenza viruses were not registered in the database, and since most patients were admitted before COVID-19 vaccinations ...were available, we were unable to establish the effect of influenza viruses or SARS-CoV-2 vaccination on outcome in monoinfected and co-infected patients. ...they suggest that testing for influenza viruses is important in hospital inpatients with COVID-19 to identify patients at risk and a cohort of patients who might have different responses to immunomodulatory and antiviral therapy.
To characterise the clinical features of children and young people admitted to hospital with laboratory confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in the UK and ...explore factors associated with admission to critical care, mortality, and development of multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children and adolescents temporarily related to coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) (MIS-C).
Prospective observational cohort study with rapid data gathering and near real time analysis.
260 hospitals in England, Wales, and Scotland between 17 January and 3 July 2020, with a minimum follow-up time of two weeks (to 17 July 2020).
651 children and young people aged less than 19 years admitted to 138 hospitals and enrolled into the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emergency Infections Consortium (ISARIC) WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK study with laboratory confirmed SARS-CoV-2.
Admission to critical care (high dependency or intensive care), in-hospital mortality, or meeting the WHO preliminary case definition for MIS-C.
Median age was 4.6 (interquartile range 0.3-13.7) years, 35% (225/651) were under 12 months old, and 56% (367/650) were male. 57% (330/576) were white, 12% (67/576) South Asian, and 10% (56/576) black. 42% (276/651) had at least one recorded comorbidity. A systemic mucocutaneous-enteric cluster of symptoms was identified, which encompassed the symptoms for the WHO MIS-C criteria. 18% (116/632) of children were admitted to critical care. On multivariable analysis, this was associated with age under 1 month (odds ratio 3.21, 95% confidence interval 1.36 to 7.66; P=0.008), age 10-14 years (3.23, 1.55 to 6.99; P=0.002), and black ethnicity (2.82, 1.41 to 5.57; P=0.003). Six (1%) of 627 patients died in hospital, all of whom had profound comorbidity. 11% (52/456) met the WHO MIS-C criteria, with the first patient developing symptoms in mid-March. Children meeting MIS-C criteria were older (median age 10.7 (8.3-14.1)
1.6 (0.2-12.9) years; P<0.001) and more likely to be of non-white ethnicity (64% (29/45)
42% (148/355); P=0.004). Children with MIS-C were five times more likely to be admitted to critical care (73% (38/52)
15% (62/404); P<0.001). In addition to the WHO criteria, children with MIS-C were more likely to present with fatigue (51% (24/47)
28% (86/302); P=0.004), headache (34% (16/47)
10% (26/263); P<0.001), myalgia (34% (15/44)
8% (21/270); P<0.001), sore throat (30% (14/47)
(12% (34/284); P=0.003), and lymphadenopathy (20% (9/46)
3% (10/318); P<0.001) and to have a platelet count of less than 150 × 10
/L (32% (16/50)
11% (38/348); P<0.001) than children who did not have MIS-C. No deaths occurred in the MIS-C group.
Children and young people have less severe acute covid-19 than adults. A systemic mucocutaneous-enteric symptom cluster was also identified in acute cases that shares features with MIS-C. This study provides additional evidence for refining the WHO MIS-C preliminary case definition. Children meeting the MIS-C criteria have different demographic and clinical features depending on whether they have acute SARS-CoV-2 infection (polymerase chain reaction positive) or are post-acute (antibody positive).
ISRCTN66726260.
To systematically review studies reporting survival data following neoadjuvant chemoradiation and orthotopic liver transplantation (NCR-OLT) for unresectable perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (pCC).
...Despite survival improvements for other cancers, the prognosis of pCC remains dismal. Since publication of the Mayo protocol in 2000, increasing numbers of series globally are reporting outcomes after NCR-OLT.
MEDLINE, EMBASE, Scopus, and Web of Science databases were searched from January 2000 to February 2019. A meta-analysis of proportions was conducted, pooling 1, 3-, and 5-year overall survival and recurrence rates following NCR-OLT across centers. Per protocol and intention to treat data were interrogated. Meta-regression was used to evaluate PSC as a confounder affecting survival.
Twenty studies comprising 428 patients were eligible for analysis. No RCTs were retrieved; the majority of studies were noncomparative cohort studies. The pooled 1, 3-, and 5-year overall survival rates following OLT without neoadjuvant therapy were 71.2% (95% CI 62.2%-79.4%), 48.0% (95% CI 35.0%-60.9%), and 31.6% (95% CI 23.1%-40.7%). These improved to 82.8% (95% CI 73.0%-90.8%), 65.5% (95% CI 48.7%-80.5%), and 65.1% (95% CI 55.1%-74.5%) if neoadjuvant chemoradiation was completed. Pooled recurrence after 3 years was 24.1% (95% CI 17.9%-30.9%) with neoadjuvant chemoradiation, 51.7% (95% CI 33.8%-69.4%) without.
In unresectable pCC, NCR-OLT confers long-term survival in highly selected patients able to complete neoadjuvant chemoradiation followed by transplantation. PSC patients appear to have the most favorable outcomes. A high recurrence rate is of concern when considering extending national graft selection policy to pCC.
Gallstone disease (GD) is one of the most common presentations to surgical units worldwide and shares several risk factors with cardiovascular disease (CVD). CVD remains the most common cause of ...death worldwide and results in considerable economic burden. Recent observational studies have demonstrated an association between GD and CVD with some studies demonstrating a stronger association with cholecystectomy. We present the findings of a meta-analysis assessing the relationship between GD and CVD. A total of fourteen cohort studies with over 1.2 million participants were included. The pooled hazard ratio (HR, 95% confidence interval CI) for association with GD from a random-effects model is 1.23 (95%CI: 1.16-1.30) for fatal and non-fatal CVD events. The association was present in females and males. Three studies report the relationship between cholecystectomy and CVD with a pooled HR of 1.41 (95%CI: 1.21-1.64) which compares to a HR of 1.30 (95%CI: 1.07-1.58) when cholecystectomy is excluded although confounding may influence this result. Our meta-analysis demonstrates a significant relationship between GD and CVD events which is present in both sexes. Further research is needed to assess the influence of cholecystectomy on this association.
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