Predictions for sea-level rise this century due to melt from Antarctica range from zero to more than one metre. The highest predictions are driven by the controversial marine ice-cliff instability ...(MICI) hypothesis, which assumes that coastal ice cliffs can rapidly collapse after ice shelves disintegrate, as a result of surface and sub-shelf melting caused by global warming. But MICI has not been observed in the modern era and it remains unclear whether it is required to reproduce sea-level variations in the geological past. Here we quantify ice-sheet modelling uncertainties for the original MICI study and show that the probability distributions are skewed towards lower values (under very high greenhouse gas concentrations, the most likely value is 45 centimetres). However, MICI is not required to reproduce sea-level changes due to Antarctic ice loss in the mid-Pliocene epoch, the last interglacial period or 1992-2017; without it we find that the projections agree with previous studies (all 95th percentiles are less than 43 centimetres). We conclude that previous interpretations of these MICI projections over-estimate sea-level rise this century; because the MICI hypothesis is not well constrained, confidence in projections with MICI would require a greater range of observationally constrained models of ice-shelf vulnerability and ice-cliff collapse.
To estimate the global cost of establishing and operating the educational and refractive care facilities required to provide care to all individuals who currently have vision impairment resulting ...from uncorrected refractive error (URE).
The global cost of correcting URE was estimated using data on the population, the prevalence of URE and the number of existing refractive care practitioners in individual countries, the cost of establishing and operating educational programmes for practitioners and the cost of establishing and operating refractive care facilities. The assumptions made ensured that costs were not underestimated and an upper limit to the costs was derived using the most expensive extreme for each assumption.
There were an estimated 158 million cases of distance vision impairment and 544 million cases of near vision impairment caused by URE worldwide in 2007. Approximately 47 000 additional full-time functional clinical refractionists and 18 000 ophthalmic dispensers would be required to provide refractive care services for these individuals. The global cost of educating the additional personnel and of establishing, maintaining and operating the refractive care facilities needed was estimated to be around 20 000 million United States dollars (US$) and the upper-limit cost was US$ 28 000 million. The estimated loss in global gross domestic product due to distance vision impairment caused by URE was US$ 202 000 million annually.
The cost of establishing and operating the educational and refractive care facilities required to deal with vision impairment resulting from URE was a small proportion of the global loss in productivity associated with that vision impairment.
To estimate the potential global economic productivity loss associated with the existing burden of visual impairment from uncorrected refractive error (URE).
Conservative assumptions and national ...population, epidemiological and economic data were used to estimate the purchasing power parity-adjusted gross domestic product (PPP-adjusted GDP) loss for all individuals with impaired vision and blindness, and for individuals with normal sight who provide them with informal care.
An estimated 158.1 million cases of visual impairment resulted from uncorrected or undercorrected refractive error in 2007; of these, 8.7 million were blind. We estimated the global economic productivity loss in international dollars (I$) associated with this burden at I$ 427.7 billion before, and I$ 268.8 billion after, adjustment for country-specific labour force participation and employment rates. With the same adjustment, but assuming no economic productivity for individuals aged > 50 years, we estimated the potential productivity loss at I$ 121.4 billion.
Even under the most conservative assumptions, the total estimated productivity loss, in $I, associated with visual impairment from URE is approximately a thousand times greater than the global number of cases. The cost of scaling up existing refractive services to meet this burden is unknown, but if each affected individual were to be provided with appropriate eyeglasses for less than I$ 1000, a net economic gain may be attainable.
Individual processes shaping geographical patterns of biodiversity are increasingly understood, but their complex interactions on broad spatial and temporal scales remain beyond the reach of ...analytical models and traditional experiments. To meet this challenge, we built a spatially explicit, mechanistic simulation model implementing adaptation, range shifts, fragmentation, speciation, dispersal, competition, and extinction, driven by modeled climates of the past 800,000 years in South America. Experimental topographic smoothing confirmed the impact of climate heterogeneity on diversification. The simulations identified regions and episodes of speciation (cradles), persistence (museums), and extinction (graves). Although the simulations had no target pattern and were not parameterized with empirical data, emerging richness maps closely resembled contemporary maps for major taxa, confirming powerful roles for evolution and diversification driven by topography and climate.
ABSTRACT We identify four unusually bright (H < 25.5) galaxies from Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and Spitzer CANDELS data with probable redshifts z ∼ 7-9. These identifications include the ...brightest-known galaxies to date at z 7.5. As Y-band observations are not available over the full CANDELS program to perform a standard Lyman-break selection of z > 7 galaxies, we employ an alternate strategy using deep Spitzer/IRAC data. We identify z ∼ 7.1-9.1 galaxies by selecting z 6 galaxies from the HST CANDELS data that show quite red IRAC 3.6−4.5 colors, indicating strong O iii+Hβ lines in the 4.5 m band. This selection strategy was validated using a modest sample for which we have deep Y-band coverage, and subsequently used to select the brightest z ≥ 7 sources. Applying the IRAC criteria to all HST-selected optical dropout galaxies over the full ∼900 arcmin2 of the CANDELS survey revealed four unusually bright z ∼ 7.1, 7.6, 7.9, and 8.6 candidates. The median 3.6−4.5 color of our selected z ∼ 7.1-9.1 sample is consistent with rest-frame O iii+Hβ EWs of ∼1500 in the 4.5 band. Keck/MOSFIRE spectroscopy has been independently reported for two of our selected sources, showing Ly at redshifts of 7.7302 0.0006 and , respectively. We present similar Keck/MOSFIRE spectroscopy for a third selected galaxy with a probable 4.7 Ly line at zspec = 7.4770 0.0008. All three have H160-band magnitudes of ∼25 mag and are ∼0.5 mag more luminous (M1600 ∼ −22.0) than any previously discovered z ∼ 8 galaxy, with important implications for the UV luminosity function (LF). Our three brightest and highest redshift z > 7 galaxies all lie within the CANDELS-EGS field, providing a dramatic illustration of the potential impact of field-to-field variance.
Asian Monsoon rainfall supports the livelihood of billions of people, yet the relative importance of different drivers remains an issue of great debate. Here, we present 30 million-year model-based ...reconstructions of Indian summer monsoon and South East Asian monsoon rainfall at millennial resolution. We show that precession is the dominant direct driver of orbital variability, although variability on obliquity timescales is driven through the ice sheets. Orographic development dominated the evolution of the South East Asian monsoon, but Indian summer monsoon evolution involved a complex mix of contributions from orography (39%), precession (25%), atmospheric CO
(21%), ice-sheet state (5%) and ocean gateways (5%). Prior to 15 Ma, the Indian summer monsoon was broadly stable, albeit with substantial orbital variability. From 15 Ma to 5 Ma, strengthening was driven by a combination of orography and glaciation, while closure of the Panama gateway provided the prerequisite for the modern Indian summer monsoon state through a strengthened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.
This paper presents an analysis of climate policy instruments for the decarbonisation of the global electricity sector in a non-equilibrium economic and technology diffusion perspective. Energy ...markets are driven by innovation, path-dependent technology choices and diffusion. However, conventional optimisation models lack detail on these aspects and have limited ability to address the effectiveness of policy interventions because they do not represent decision-making. As a result, known effects of technology lock-ins are liable to be underestimated. In contrast, our approach places investor decision-making at the core of the analysis and investigates how it drives the diffusion of low-carbon technology in a highly disaggregated, hybrid, global macroeconometric model, FTT:Power-E3MG. Ten scenarios to 2050 of the electricity sector in 21 regions exploring combinations of electricity policy instruments are analysed, including their climate impacts. We show that in a diffusion and path-dependent perspective, the impact of combinations of policies does not correspond to the sum of impacts of individual instruments: synergies exist between policy tools. We argue that the carbon price required to break the current fossil technology lock-in can be much lower when combined with other policies, and that a 90% decarbonisation of the electricity sector by 2050 is affordable without early scrapping.
•Policy scenarios for decarbonising of the global electricity sector by 90%.•Strong synergies exist between different energy policy instruments.•Carbon pricing not a sufficient policy instrument for large emissions reductions.•Improved agent behaviour assumptions for energy modelling beyond cost-optimisation.
The IRAC ultradeep field and IRAC Legacy over GOODS programs are two ultradeep imaging surveys at 3.6 and 4.5 mum with the Spitzer Infrared Array Camera (IRAC). The primary aim is to directly detect ...the infrared light of reionization epoch galaxies at z > 7 and to constrain their stellar populations. The observations cover the Hubble Ultra Deep Field (HUDF), including the two HUDF parallel fields, and the CANDELS/GOODS-South, and are combined with archival data from all previous deep programs into one ultradeep data set. The resulting imaging reaches unprecedented coverage in IRAC 3.6 and 4.5 mum ranging from >50 hr over 150 arcmin super(2), >100 hr over 60 sq arcmin super(2), to ~200 hr over 5-10 arcmin super(2). This paper presents the survey description, data reduction, and public release of reduced mosaics on the same astrometric system as the CANDELS/GOODS-South Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3) data. To facilitate prior-based WFC3+IRAC photometry, we introduce a new method to create high signal-to-noise PSFs from the IRAC data and reconstruct the complex spatial variation due to survey geometry. The PSF maps are included in the release, as are registered maps of subsets of the data to enable reliability and variability studies. Simulations show that the noise in the ultradeep IRAC images decreases approximately as the square root of integration time over the range 20-200 hr, well below the classical confusion limit, reaching 1sigma point-source sensitivities as faint as 15 nJy (28.5 AB) at 3.6 mum and 18 nJy (28.3 AB) at 4.5 mum. The value of such ultradeep IRAC data is illustrated by direct detections of z = 7-8 galaxies as faint as H sub(AB) = 28.
For many individuals, the developmental trend of lessening hyperopia from birth continues past emmetropia towards myopia during childhood. The global pattern for prevalence of refractive errors ...indicates that the prevalence of hyperopia is low; in contrast, the burden of myopia is on the rise because of rising prevalence and magnitude of myopia. This review highlights the need to lessen the global burden of myopia by intervening with the development and/or slowing the progression of myopia. Further, outcomes from human clinical trials of pharmaceutical, optical, and environmental approaches to control myopia will be summarised. Pharmaceutical treatments are effective in controlling eye growth but are associated with deleterious side effects. Optical strategies that induce myopic defocus at the retina such as peripheral defocus reducing lenses, simultaneous defocus lenses, bifocals, and orthokeratology as well as environmental influences such as increased outdoor activity show promise and provide a substantially risk-free environment in which to control eye growth.
Myopia is the most frequent cause of distance impairment in the world and is creating an alarming global epidemic with deleterious ramifications for the quality of life and economic health of ...individuals and nations as a whole. In addition to being immediately disadvantageous, myopia increases the risk of serious disorders such as myopic macular degeneration, retinal detachment, glaucoma, and cataract and is a leading cause of visual impairment and blindness across many countries. The reduction in age of onset of myopia is of great concern since the earlier the onset, the more myopic the individual will become, with all the attendant increased risks of accompanying debilitating eye conditions. The economic burden is great; both in consequences of uncorrected refractive error and also in the provision of devices for correcting visual acuity. Earlier onset of myopia increases the lifetime economic burden related to loss of productivity and independence, leading to a reduced quality of life. Recent data suggest addressing accommodation per se has little direct amelioration of myopia progression. Pharmacological interventions that effect changes in the sclera show promising efficacy, whereas optical interventions based on a myopic shift in the retinal image are proving to effect up to 55% reduction in the rate of progression of myopia. Early contact lens and spectacle interventions that reduce the rate of progression of myopia are able to significantly reduce the burden of myopia. These non-pharmacological interventions show profound promise in reducing the overall associated morbidity of myopia.
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