Objective
We make use of multiple data sources to examine whether there has been geographical polarization in the political behavior of Texas Hispanics from 2012 to 2022. It is widely known that ...partisan divisions in the American electorate continue to cleave along geographic lines. However, much of this literature on the urban–rural divide does not focus on a specific racial group, and if it does, then it typically highlights differences among non‐Hispanic white voters (Anglos).
Methods
Making use of aggregate‐ and individual‐level data, we assess Texas Hispanics’ party affiliation, participation, and vote choice according to geographic location.
Results
We find notable evidence of geographic‐based partisan polarization among Texas’ burgeoning Hispanic population.
Conclusions
Although the movement of rural/small town Texas Hispanics toward the Republican Party from 2012 to 2022 pales in comparison to this shift among Texas Anglos, a similar partisan dynamic manifests among the former group. We abstain from using the word realignment to characterize these changes in Texas Hispanics’ political behavior according to geographic location, but, nevertheless, it is clear that the Democratic Party's hold on this potentially pivotal group in the Lone Star State's electorate has loosened, and especially among rural/small town Latinos since the rise of Donald Trump.
We assess the opinions of Georgia voters regarding the 2020 presidential election, election administration, and voting laws following passage of Senate Bill (SB) 202. After the 2020 presidential ...election and subsequent 2021 Senate runoffs, contests all won by Democrats in Georgia, the Republican-controlled legislature passed SB 202 to appease their agitated and disaffected base of supporters. It appears that SB 202 had the effect of boosting Republican voters’ confidence in Georgia’s election system while registering the opposite effect among Democratic voters. Indeed, across a host of questions, including several asking about specific provisions in SB 202, we find a partisan schism in opinions expressed by Democrats and Republicans.
An inside look at why the Republican Party has come to dominate
the rural American South
Beginning with the Dixiecrat Revolt of 1948 and extending
through the 2020 election cycle, political ...scientists M.V. Hood III
and Seth C. McKee trace the process by which rural white
southerners transformed from fiercely loyal Democrats to stalwart
Republicans. While these rural white southerners were the slowest
to affiliate with the Grand Old Party, they are now its staunchest
supporters. This transition and the reasons for it are vital to
understanding the current electoral landscape of the American
South, including states like Georgia, Florida, North Carolina,
Texas, and Virginia, all of which have the potential to exert
enormous influence over national electoral outcomes.
In this first book-length empirically based study focusing on
rural southern voters, Hood and McKee examine their changing
political behavior, arguing that their Democratic-to-Republican
transition is both more recent and more durable than most political
observers realize. By analyzing data collected from their own
region-wide polling along with a variety of other carefully mined
sources, the authors explain why the initial appeal of 1950s
Republicanism to upscale white southerners in metropolitan settings
took well over a half-century to yield to, and morph into, its
culturally conservative variant now championed by rural residents.
Hood and McKee contend that it is impossible to understand current
American electoral politics without understanding the longer
trajectory of voting behavior in rural America and they offer not
only a framework but also the data necessary for doing so.
In this article, we examine the six dueling incumbent U.S. House primaries in the 2022 midterm elections. Our principal aim is to answer the question: Who wins these rare but consequential contests ...that ensure one incumbent does not return to Congress? Contrary to the intuition that retaining more of one’s previous constituents is a considerable electoral advantage, district- and precinct-level data suggest this was not pivotal. Instead, in these four Democrat versus Democrat and two Republican versus Republican dueling incumbent primaries, explanations for winning or losing appear to hinge on other factors. For the Republican races, former President Trump’s endorsement appears to have gone a long way in influencing the outcome. In the Democratic contests, descriptive representation, ideological fit, and intra-party meddling and a scandal, played a part in determining the victor.
Since 1950, the South has undergone the most dramatic political transformation of any region in the country. The Solid (Democratic) South is now overwhelmingly Republican, and long-disenfranchised ...African Americans vote at levels comparable to those of whites. This book's theory of relative advantage provides a new perspective on this party system transformation. Specifically, this work advances the idea that local strategic dynamics, namely the organizational development of the Republican Party and the mobilization of the black electorate, were the centerpieces of political change in the region. Written more than six decades ago, V. O. Key’s seminal work on the region highlighted the fact that the politics of the South was permeated by the issue of race. The central finding of his work is that race was, and still is, the locus of political change in the South. This conclusion stands in stark contrast to recent scholarship that points to in-migration, economic growth, or religious factors as being more pivotal agents of change. Besides the direct contribution this work makes to the study of Southern politics, it also contains implications for our understanding of party system change (including realignments), racial politics, and the role that state and local political dynamics play with regard to national politics and policymaking.
Objectives. Our research assesses the distinctiveness of Tea Party adherents among mobilized Republicans in the South. Methods. The data come from an interactive voice response (IVR) survey of ...households containing at least one Republican primary voter across nine southern states conducted approximately one month before the 2012 presidential election. We analyze the data using multivariate logistic regression. Results. Unlike other scholarship, we find no evidence that racial animosity drives the movement, but we do find a strong relationship between evangelicalism and Tea Party support. We also find Tea Party adherents are older, more likely to be men, less wealthy, more ideologically conservative, and more partisan than their fellow Republicans. Conclusions. Tea Party supporters in the South are likely to have a significant impact on the future of the Republican Party—both in the South, and nationally. The fact that our profile of southern Tea Party supporters does not include growing segments of the electorate does not bode well for the future development of the GOP.
Objectives. In contemporary U.S. elections there is no shortage of allegations concerning election fraud. These claims are, however, based in large part on anecdotal evidence, unsubstantiated ...assertions, or the study of reported complaints. The absence of a general methodology to actively search for evidence of election fraud has resulted in policy arguments devoid of empirical data and systematic analyses. Methods. In this article, we present a general methodology to study contemporary election fraud based on the Knowledge Discovery in Databases (KDD) process. We then apply this approach to a case study of a particular type of fraud. Results. After examining approximately 2.1 million votes cast during the 2006 general election in Georgia, we find no evidence that election fraud was committed under the auspices of deceased registrants. Conclusion. In this article, we have introduced a general methodology for the scientific study of election fraud. We urge social scientists to make use of such a framework to investigate the prevalence of different types of fraud across varying election cycles and jurisdictions.
Objective
Sarah Palin and the Tea Party played active roles in endorsing candidates for the U.S. House in 2010; we explore whether they followed different strategies. Palin proved more careful in ...backing candidates while the decentralized Tea Party movement often became involved in hopeless causes.
Method
We analyze the endorsements made by Palin and the Tea Party in contests involving House seats held by Democrats going into the 2010 elections.
Results
We show that Palin and the Tea Party had different endorsement approaches.
Conclusions
Palin's endorsements seem to have been guided by more strategic considerations than those from the Tea Party. The Tea Party concentrated more on trying to defeat incumbents and especially incumbents who had supported the Obama legislative package with the stimulus bill being a lightning rod for Tea Partiers. Palin proved far more selective in making endorsements and concentrated more on backing challengers likely to unseat Democrats. Although she endorsed less than half as many races as the Tea Party, she backed almost as many winners.
Objective. The 1966 gubernatorial campaign provides an interesting retrospective examination of Georgia politics during a period of seismic change that included the dawn of two-party competition, ...black enfranchisement, and legislative determination of the chief executive. Method. This article provides an empirical evaluation of the 1966 gubernatorial election in Georgia, including action that occurred in the General Assembly following the election. Results. Our findings clearly define the various coalitions supporting the three gubernatorial candidates and also explain why the plurality popular winner loses the legislative vote. Conclusion. The 1966 election is not only interesting as a case study in its own right, but one that had a major impact on two-party politics and legislative-executive relations in Georgia for decades to come.
Objectives. We take a step forward in examining the electoral effects of redistricting by: (1) demonstrating that voters with a new incumbent because of redistricting are less likely to recognize ...their representative, and (2) voters are less likely to vote for their representative if they fail to recognize him or her. Methods. Our data come from a survey of white respondents who resided in the redrawn Eighth District of Georgia for the 2006 U.S. House elections. We use probit regressions to first measure the effect of redistricting on incumbent recognition. Then, we assess the likelihood of voting for the incumbent depending on whether a respondent was redrawn or has the same incumbent after redistricting, and whether or not the respondent could recognize his or her representative. Results. Our analyses make it clear that redrawn voters were much less likely to recognize their incumbent and it is the inability to recognize one's incumbent, irrespective of whether the representative has changed due to redistricting, which accounts for a reduced likelihood of voting for the incumbent. Conclusions. Other scholars have examined the relationship between redistricting and incumbent recognition. Likewise, many have evaluated the effects of redistricting on vote choice. This article, however, is the first to merge these two relationships. We find that redrawn constituents are less likely to know who their representative is, and it is indeed a lack of familiarity that reduces an incumbent's vote share. Thus, we have shown empirically that the absence of a personal vote, which is exacerbated by redistricting, proves electorally harmful to the incumbent.
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