As the rate and magnitude of climate change accelerate, understanding the consequences becomes increasingly important. Species distribution models (SDMs) based on current ecological niche constraints ...are used to project future species distributions. These models contain assumptions that add to the uncertainty in model projections stemming from the structure of the models, the algorithms used to translate niche associations into distributional probabilities, the quality and quantity of data, and mismatches between the scales of modeling and data. We illustrate the application of SDMs using two climate models and two distributional algorithms, together with information on distributional shifts in vegetation types, to project fine-scale future distributions of 60 California landbird species. Most species are projected to decrease in distribution by 2070. Changes in total species richness vary over the state, with large losses of species in some "hotspots" of vulnerability. Differences in distributional shifts among species will change species co-occurrences, creating spatial variation in similarities between current and future assemblages. We use these analyses to consider how assumptions can be addressed and uncertainties reduced. SDMs can provide a useful way to incorporate future conditions into conservation and management practices and decisions, but the uncertainties of model projections must be balanced with the risks of taking the wrong actions or the costs of inaction. Doing this will require that the sources and magnitudes of uncertainty are documented, and that conservationists and resource managers be willing to act despite the uncertainties. The alternative, of ignoring the future, is not an option.
An emerging hypothesis in fire ecology is that pyrodiversity increases species diversity. We test whether pyrodiversity—defined as the standard deviation of fire severity—increases avian biodiversity ...at two spatial scales, and whether and how this relationship may change in the decade following fire. We use a dynamic Bayesian community model applied to a multi-year dataset of bird surveys at 1106 points sampled across 97 fires in montane California. Our results provide strong support for a positive relationship between pyrodiversity and bird diversity. This relationship interacts with time since fire, with pyrodiversity having a greater effect on biodiversity at 10 years post-fire than at 1 year post-fire. Immediately after fires, patches of differing burn severities hold similar bird communities, but over the ensuing decade, bird assemblages within patches of contrasting severities differentiate. When evaluated at the scale of individual fires, fires with a greater heterogeneity of burn severities hold substantially more species. High spatial heterogeneity in severity, sometimes called ‘mixed-severity fire', is a natural part of wildfire regimes in western North America, but may be jeopardized by climate change and a legacy of fire suppression. Forest management that encourages mixed-severity fire may be critical for sustaining biodiversity across fire-prone landscapes.
Proanthocyanidins and ellagitannins, referred to as “tannins”, exist in many plant sources. These compounds interact with proteins due to their numerous hydroxyl groups, which are suitable for ...hydrophobic associations. It was hypothesized that tannins could bind to the digestive enzymes α-amylase and glucoamylase, thereby inhibiting starch hydrolysis. Slowed starch digestion can theoretically increase satiety by modulating glucose “spiking” and depletion that occurs after carbohydrate-rich meals. Tannins were isolated from extracts of pomegranate, cranberry, grape, and cocoa and these isolates tested for effectiveness to inhibit the activity of α-amylase and glucoamylase in vitro. The compositions of the isolates were confirmed by NMR and LC/MS analysis, and tannin–protein interactions were investigated using relevant enzyme assays and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). The results demonstrated inhibition of each enzyme by each tannin, but with variation in magnitude. In general, larger and more complex tannins, such as those in pomegranate and cranberry, more effectively inhibited the enzymes than did less polymerized cocoa tannins. Interaction of the tannins with the enzymes was confirmed through calorimetric measurements of changes in enzyme thermal stability.
By facilitating independent shifts in species' distributions, climate disruption may result in the rapid development of novel species assemblages that challenge the capacity of species to co-exist ...and adapt. We used a multivariate approach borrowed from paleoecology to quantify the potential change in California terrestrial breeding bird communities based on current and future species-distribution models for 60 focal species. Projections of future no-analog communities based on two climate models and two species-distribution-model algorithms indicate that by 2070 over half of California could be occupied by novel assemblages of bird species, implying the potential for dramatic community reshuffling and altered patterns of species interactions. The expected percentage of no-analog bird communities was dependent on the community scale examined, but consistent geographic patterns indicated several locations that are particularly likely to host novel bird communities in the future. These no-analog areas did not always coincide with areas of greatest projected species turnover. Efforts to conserve and manage biodiversity could be substantially improved by considering not just future changes in the distribution of individual species, but including the potential for unprecedented changes in community composition and unanticipated consequences of novel species assemblages.
Theoretical and empirical evidence suggests that impaired time perception and the neural circuitry underlying internal timing mechanisms may contribute to severe psychiatric disorders, including ...psychotic and mood disorders. The degree to which alterations in temporal perceptions reflect deficits that exist across psychosis-related phenotypes and the extent to which mood symptoms contribute to these deficits is currently unknown. In addition, compared to schizophrenia, where timing deficits have been more extensively investigated, sub-second timing has been studied relatively infrequently in bipolar disorder. The present study compared sub-second duration estimates of schizophrenia (SZ), schizoaffective disorder (SA), non-psychotic bipolar disorder (BDNP), bipolar disorder with psychotic features (BDP), and healthy non-psychiatric controls (HC) on a well-established time perception task using sub-second durations. Participants included 66 SZ, 37 BDNP, 34 BDP, 31 SA, and 73 HC who participated in a temporal bisection task that required temporal judgements about auditory durations ranging from 300 to 600 milliseconds. Timing variability was significantly higher in SZ, BDP, and BDNP groups compared to healthy controls. The bisection point did not differ across groups. These findings suggest that both psychotic and mood symptoms may be associated with disruptions in internal timing mechanisms. Yet unexpected findings emerged. Specifically, the BDNP group had significantly increased variability compared to controls, but the SA group did not. In addition, these deficits appeared to exist independent of current symptom status. The absence of between group differences in bisection point suggests that increased variability in the SZ and bipolar disorder groups are due to alterations in perceptual timing in the sub-second range, possibly mediated by the cerebellum, rather than cognitive deficits.
11CPBR28, a radioligand targeting the translocator protein (TSPO), does not produce a specific binding signal in approximately 14% of healthy volunteers. This phenomenon has not been reported for ...11CPK11195, another TSPO radioligand. We measured the specific binding signals with 3HPK11195 and 3HPBR28 in brain tissue from 22 donors. Overall, 23% of the samples did not generate a visually detectable specific autoradiographic signal with 3HPBR28, although all samples showed 3HPK11195 binding. There was a marked reduction in the affinity of 3HPBR28 for TSPO in samples with no visible 3HPBR28 autoradiographic signal (Ki=188±15.6 nmol/L), relative to those showing normal signal (Ki=3.4±0.5 nmol/L, P<0.001). Of this latter group, 3HPBR28 bound with a two-site fit in 40% of cases, with affinities (Ki) of 4.0±2.4 nmol/L (high-affinity site) and 313±77 nmol/L (low-affinity site). There was no difference in Kd or Bmax for 3HPK11195 in samples showing no 3HPBR28 autoradiographic signal relative to those showing normal 3HPBR28 autoradiographic signal. 3HPK11195 bound with a single site for all samples. The existence of three different binding patterns with PBR28 (high-affinity binding (46%), low-affinity binding (23%), and two-site binding (31%)) suggests that a reduction in 11CPBR28 binding may not be interpreted simply as a reduction in TSPO density. The functional significance of differences in binding characteristics warrants further investigation.
Gene editing using CRISPR/Cas (clustered regularly interspaced palindromic repeats/CRISPR-associated) is under development as a therapeutic tool for the modification of genes in eukaryotic cells. ...While much effort has focused on CRISPR/Cas9 systems from Streptococcus pyogenes and Staphylococcus aureus, alternative CRISPR systems have been identified from non-pathogenic microbes, including previously unknown class 2 systems, adding to a diverse toolbox of CRISPR/Cas enzymes. The Cas12e enzymes from non-pathogenic Deltaproteobacteria (CasX1, DpeCas12e) and Planctomycetes (CasX2, PlmCas12e) are smaller than Cas9, have a selective protospacer adjacent motif (PAM), and deliver a staggered cleavage cut with a 5-7 nucleotide overhang. We investigated the impact of guide RNA spacer length and alternative PAM sequences on cleavage activity to determine optimal conditions for PlmCas12e cleavage of the cellular gene CCR5 (CC-Chemokine receptor-5). CCR5 encodes the CCR5 coreceptor used by human immunodeficiency virus-type 1 (HIV-1) to infect target cells. A 32 base-pair deletion in CCR5 (CCR5-
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32) is responsible for HIV-1 resistance and reported cures following bone marrow transplantation. Consequently, CCR5 has been an important target for gene editing utilizing CRISPR/Cas. We determined that CCR5 cleavage activity varied with the target site, spacer length, and the fourth nucleotide in the previously described PAM sequence, TTCN. Our analyses demonstrated a PAM preference for purines (adenine, guanine) over pyrimidines (thymidine, cytosine) in the fourth position of the CasX2 PAM. This improved understanding of CasX2 cleavage requirements facilitates the development of therapeutic strategies to recreate the CCR5-
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32 mutation in haematopoietic stem cells.
Recently burned coniferous forests host wildlife communities that respond to variation in burn severity, post-fire habitat structure, and patch configuration. Habitat selection theory predicts that ...birds inhabiting these variable post-fire landscapes will select nesting locations that confer an adaptive advantage through increased fitness and reproductive success. Understanding the effect of post-fire habitat on avian nesting ecology can provide valuable information to guide restoration and management after wildfire. The Black-backed Woodpecker (Picoides arcticus) is strongly associated with recently burned forests in the western United States, where it is used as an indicator species for the effects of post-fire forest management. Between 2011 and 2018, we located and monitored 118 Black-backed Woodpecker nests in burned forests of northern California. We evaluated the influence of habitat and nest characteristics on nest site selection and daily nest survival. Our results demonstrate a pattern of neutral congruence between habitat selection and fitness. Blackbacked Woodpeckers showed strong selection for each of the nest habitat variables that we measured: woodpeckers selected moderately sized trees in areas of high snag density burned at high severity, but also in areas relatively close to low-severity or unburned edges. However, only nest initiation date affected nest survival, with decreased survival in late-season nests. Our results suggest that management actions aimed at maintaining breeding habitat for Black-backed Woodpeckers should prioritize retention and creation of pyrodiverse landscapes that include dense stands of snags (>5 snags per 100 m2) within ~500 m of forest that burned at low severity or remained unburned.
1. Fire creates challenges and opportunities for wildlife through rapid destruction, modification and creation of habitat. Fire has spatially variable effects on landscapes; however, for species that ...benefit from the ephemeral resource patches created by fire, it is critical to understand characteristics of fires that promote postfire colonization and persistence and the spatial scales on which they operate. 2. Using a model postfire specialist, the black-backed woodpecker (Picoides arcticus), we examined how colonization and persistence varied across two spatial scales as a function of four characteristics of fire regimes—fire severity, fire size, fire ignition date and number of years since fire. 3. We modelled black-backed woodpecker colonization and persistence using data from 108 recently burned forests in the Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades ecoregions of California, USA, that we monitored for up to 10 years following fire. We employed a novel, spatially hierarchical, dynamic occupancy framework which differentiates colonization and persistence at two spatial scales: across fires and within fires. 4. We found strong effects of fire characteristics on dynamic rates, with colonization and persistence declining across both spatial scales with increasing years since fire. Additionally, at sites within fires, colonization decreased with fire size and increased with fire severity and for fires with later ignition dates. 5. Our results support the notion that different aspects of a species' environment are important for population processes at different spatial scales. As habitat quality is ephemeral for any given postfire area, our results illustrate the importance of time since fire in structuring occupancy at the fire level, with other characteristics of fires playing larger roles in determining abundance within individual fires. Our results contribute to the broader understanding of how variation in fire characteristics influences the colonization and persistence of species using ephemeral habitats, which is necessary for conserving and promoting postfire biodiversity in the context of rapidly shifting fire regimes.
Museum records have great potential to provide valuable insights into the vulnerability, historic distribution, and conservation of species, especially when coupled with species-distribution models ...used to predict species' ranges. Yet, the increasing dependence on species-distribution models in identifying conservation priorities calls for a more critical evaluation of model robustness. We used 11 bird species of conservation concern in Brazil's highly fragmented Atlantic Forest and data on environmental conditions in the region to predict species distributions. These predictions were repeated for five different model types for each of the 11 bird species. We then combined these species distributions for each model separately and applied a reserve-selection algorithm to identify priority sites. We compared the potential outcomes from the reserve selection among the models. Although similarity in identification of conservation reserve networks occurred among models, models differed markedly in geographic scope and flexibility of reserve networks. It is essential for planners to evaluate the conservation implications of false-positive and false-negative errors for their specific management scenario before beginning the modeling process. Reserve networks selected by models that minimized false-positive errors provided a better match with priority areas identified by specialists. Thus, we urge caution in the use of models that overestimate species' occurrences because they may misdirect conservation action. Our approach further demonstrates the great potential value of museum records to biodiversity studies and the utility of species-distribution models to conservation decision-making. Our results also demonstrate, however, that these models must be applied critically and cautiously.
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