Many previous studies have evaluated the hydrologic response to climate change using the first‐order approximation (first‐order Taylor expansion) of the Mezentsev‐Choudhury‐Yang equation (formulating ...the Budyko hypothesis), which has a parameter n representing catchment characteristics. However, no studies have paid attention to the error due to the first‐order approximation. This study therefore estimates this error to improve the theoretical framework for assessing the contribution of climate change to runoff based on the Budyko hypothesis. Specifically, the error increases when precipitation (P) decreases and potential evaporation (E0) increases, and n increases. Therefore, an increasing P or decreasing E0 leads to an underestimate of the climatic contributions, while a decreasing P or increasing E0 leads to an overestimate. In addition, we suggest a new method to accurately estimate the contribution of climate change to runoff.
Key Points:
Error analysis of the first‐order Taylor expansion of Budyko hypothesis
A new method for assessing hydrologic response to climate change
Rainfall is one of the most basic meteorological and hydrological elements. Quantitative rainfall estimation has always been a common concern in many fields of research and practice, such as ...meteorology, hydrology, and environment, as well as being one of the most important research hotspots in various fields nowadays. Due to the development of space observation technology and statistics, progress has been made in rainfall quantitative spatial estimation, which has continuously deepened our understanding of the water cycle across different space-time scales. In light of the information sources used in rainfall spatial estimation, this paper summarized the research progress in traditional spatial interpolation, remote sensing retrieval, atmospheric reanalysis rainfall, and multi-source rainfall merging since 2000. However, because of the extremely complex spatiotemporal variability and physical mechanism of rainfall, it is still quite challenging to obtain rainfall spatial distribution with high quality and resolution. Therefore, we present existing problems that require further exploration, including the improvement of interpolation and merging methods, the comprehensive evaluation of remote sensing, and the reanalysis of rainfall data and in-depth application of non-gauge based rainfall data.
The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is referred to as the water tower of Asia, where water storage and precipitation have huge impacts on most major Asian rivers. Based on gravity recovery and climate ...experiment data, this study analyzed the terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes and estimated areal precipitation based on the water balance equation in four different basins, namely, the upper Yellow River (UYE), the upper Yangtze River (UYA), the Yarlung Zangbo River (YZ), and the Qiangtang Plateau (QT). The results show that the TWS change exhibits different patterns in the four basins and varies from −13 to 2 mm/year from 2003 to 2017. The estimated mean annual precipitation was 260 ± 19 mm/year (QT), 697 ± 26 mm/year (UYA), 541 ± 36 mm/year (UYE), and 1160 ± 39 mm/year (YZ) which performed better than other precipitation products in the TP. It indicates a potential method for estimating basin-scale precipitation through integrating basin average precipitation from the water balance equation in the poorly gauged and ungauged regions.
Miyun Reservoir is the main raw water source for Beijing’s domestic water supply. Flow discharge to Miyun Reservoir decreased drastically over a 50-year period, from 1956 to 2005, and had seriously ...affected Beijing’s water supply. Climate variability and human activity had been identified as the two main reasons for the decrease in flow. Here, climate variability refers to changes in precipitation and temperature. Impact of human activity includes direct withdrawal of water (referred to as “direct abstraction” in this paper) from the river (primary) or groundwater and indirect impact due to man-made changes in land use and vegetation in the upstream of the reservoir. According to the historical record, “direct abstraction” from the upstream of the reservoir has increased significantly since 1984. The study period was split into two sub-periods, from 1956 to 1983 and from 1984 to 2005. Based on the historical record, annual runoff in the upstream catchment of Miyun Reservoir (i.e., inflow into the reservoir) had decreased from 90.3
mm to 41.8
mm for the two sub-periods, a decrease of 48.5
mm. Over the same period, average annual “direct abstraction” increased from 2.2
mm to 13.4
mm, an increase of 11.2
mm. The latter accounted for 23% (11.2
mm/48.5
mm) of the decrease in inflow into the reservoir.
This study utilised: (1) a distributed hydrological model (geomorphology-based hydrological model, or GBHM) and (2) a climate elasticity model to conduct a quantitative assessment of the impact of climate variability and the indirect impact of human activity on the inflow into the reservoir. Simulation results of GBHM and the climate elasticity model showed that climate impact was accountable for about 55% and 51% of the decrease in reservoir inflow, respectively. The indirect impact of human activity (mainly man-made land use and vegetation changes) accounted for 18% of the decrease in reservoir inflow.
Raindrop size distributions (DSDs) are the microphysical characteristics of raindrop spectra. Rainfall characterization is important to: (1) provide information on extreme rate, thus, it has an ...impact on rainfall related hazard; (2) provide data for indirect observation, model and forecast; (3) calibrate and validate the parameters in radar reflectivity-rainfall intensity (Z-R) relationships (quantitative estimate precipitation, QPE) and the mechanism of precipitation erosivity. In this study, the one-year datasets of raindrop spectra were measured by an OTT Parsivel-2 Disdrometer placed in Yulin, Shaanxi Province, China. At the same time, four TE525MM Gauges were also used in the same location to check the disdrometer-measured rainfall data. The theoretical formula of raindrop kinetic energy-rainfall intensity (KE-R) relationships was derived based on the DSDs to characterize the impact of precipitation characteristics and environmental conditions on KE-R relationships in semi-arid areas. In addition, seasonal rainfall intensity curves observed by the disdrometer of the area with application to erosion were characterized and estimated. The results showed that after quality control (QC), the frequencies of raindrop spectra data in different seasons varied, and rainfalls with R within 0.5–5 mm/h accounted for the largest proportion of rainfalls in each season. The parameters in Z-R relationships (Z = aRb) were different for rainfall events of different seasons (a varies from 78.3–119.0, and b from 1.8–2.1), and the calculated KE-R relationships satisfied the form of power function KE = ARm, in which A and m are parameters derived from rainfall shape factor μ. The sensitivity analysis of parameter A with μ demonstrated the applicability of the KE-R formula to different precipitation processes in the Yulin area.
Multi-source weighted-ensemble precipitation (MSWEP) is one of the most popular merged global precipitation products with long-term spanning and high spatial resolution. While various studies have ...acknowledged its ability to accurately estimate precipitation in terms of temporal dynamics, its performance regarding spatial pattern and extreme rainfall is overlooked. To fill this knowledge gap, the daily precipitation of two versions of MSWEP (MSWEP V2.1 & V2.2) are compared with that of three representative satellite- and reanalysis-based products, namely the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM 3B42 V7), the climate prediction center morphing technique satellite-gauge merged product (CMORPH BLD), and the fifth-generation reanalysis product of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5). The comparison is made according to the dense daily rainfall observations from 539 rain gauges over the Huaihe River Basin in China during 2006–2015. The results show that MSWEP V2.1, MSWEP V2.2 and CMORPH BLD have better performance on temporal accuracy of precipitation estimation, followed by ERA5 and TRMM 3B42 V7. MSWEPs yield the most even spatial distribution across the basin since it takes full advantage of the multi datasets. As the weighted-ensemble method is independently carried out on each grid in MSWEPs, the spatial distribution of local precipitation is changed by different source data, which results in that MSWEPs perform worse than CMORPH BLD in terms of the representation of precipitation spatial pattern. In addition, the capability of MSWEPs to describe the spatial structure in the rainy season is lower than that in the dry season. Strong precipitation (⩾100 mm/d) events are better represented in TRMM 3B42 V7 products than in MSWEPs. Finally, based on the comparison results, we suggest to improve the merging algorithm of MSWEP by considering the precipitation spatial self-correlation and adjusting the merging weights based on the performance of the source datasets under different precipitation intensities.
This study evaluates and compares the performance of six high-resolution monthly satellite rainfall estimates (SREs), which include TRMM 3B43V6, TRMM 3B42RTV6, CMORPH, GSMaP MWR+, GSMaP MVK+, and ...PERSIANN, with dense ground rain gauges located in Ganjiang River Basin. The performance was evaluated at multiple spatial scales: the 0.25° × 0.25° grid, sub-catchment, and the whole basin. It was observed that 3B43V6 generally performed well and was able to capture the ground benchmark rainfall with slight overestimation, whereas all of the other SREs suffered large underestimation in the study area. Among the five pure satellite-derived products, 3B42RTV6 and CMORPH performed better, whereas PERSIANN performed the worst. All of the SREs except 3B43V6 showed a strong seasonal signature with much better performance in the wet season than in the dry season. The results also indicate that SREs performed better in the southeast and central regions, whereas poor performance was observed in the western mountains and in the northern plains. Furthermore, the spatial patterns of SREs errors are influenced mainly by the local terrain. The performance of SREs improved when the spatial scale was increased, whereas the performance reduced when the temporal scale was increased from month to year.
Purpose
The different mechanisms that trigger the autoimmune attack to the thyroid between Hashimoto’s thyroiditis (HT) and Graves’ disease (GD) are still unclear. The aim of this study was to ...recognize thyroid antigens specific CD8+ T-cell epitopes and explore the relationship between these epitopes and thyroid autoantibodies, duration and classification in these two diseases.
Methods
Free thiiodothyronine, free tetraiodothyronine, thyroid-stimulating hormone, TgAb, and TPOAb were all measured by immunochemiluminometric assays, while TRAb was tested by radioimmunoassay. HLA class I peptide affinity algorithms were applied to predict candidate thyroid autoantigen peptides that blind to HLA-A*0201. The ELISpot assay was used to detect Tg-, TPO-, and TSHR-specific CD8+ T cells.
Results
We demonstrated that TG-6 was a novel HLA-A*0201-restricted CTL epitope in GD. TG-6, TG-7, TG-10, TG-11, and TPO-6 were immunodominant in GD patients compared with HT patients (TG-6: 38.5 vs. 8%,
P
= 0.034; TG-7, TG-10, TG-11, and TPO-6: 23.1 vs. 0%,
P
= 0.034). The immunodominance of TG-6 in GD patients was more evident than healthy controls (HC) (TG-6: 35.8 vs. 0%,
P
= 0.011), but there was no statistically significant difference between HT patients and HC. Subgroup analyses revealed the T-cell responsiveness to TG-6 was stronger in TgAb-negative HT patients (0 vs. 40%,
P
= 0.033). However, there was no correlation showed for TPOAb, TRAb, medication and duration in both HT and GD patients.
Conclusions
We report for the first time that both diseases, HT and GD, recognize different antigen-specific CD8-positive T cells. Tg maybe the dominant thyroid autoantigen contributing to breaking tolerance in GD. It could improve our knowledge of autoimmune thyroid diseases pathogenesis as well as offer new therapeutical tools in terms of peptide vaccine therapy.
Based on spatial interpolation rainfall of the ground gauge measurement,we proposed a method to comprehensively evaluate and compare the accuracy of satellite rainfall estimates （SREs） at three ...spatial scales：0.25°×0.25° grid scale,sub-catchment scale and the whole basin scale.Using this method,we evaluated the accuracy of six high-resolution monthly SREs （TRMM 3B42 V6,3B42RT V6,CMORPH,GSMaP MWR＋,GSMaP MVK＋ and PERSIANN） and revealed the spatio-temporal variation of the SRE accuracy based on spatial interpolated rainfall from a dense network of 325 gauges during 2003-2009 over the Ganjiang River Basin in the Southeast China.The results showed that ground gauge-calibrated 3B42 had the highest accuracy with slight overestimation,whereas the other five uncalibrated SREs had severe underestimation.The accuracy of the six SREs in wet seasons was remarkably higher than that in the dry seasons.When the time scale was expanded,the accuracy of SRE,particularly 3B42,increased.Furthermore,the accuracy of SREs was relatively low in the western mountains and northern piedmont areas,while it was relatively high in the central and southeastern hills and basins of the Ganjiang River Basin.When the space scale was expanded,the accuracy of the six SREs gradually increased.This study provided an example for of SRE accuracy validation in other regions,and a direct basis for further study of SRE-based hydrological process.
In recent decades, strong human activities have not only brought about climate change including both global warming and shifts in the weather patterns but have also caused anomalous variations of ...hydrological elements in different basins all around the world. Studying the mechanisms and causes of these hydrological variations scientifically is the basis for the management of water resources and the implementation of ecological protection. Therefore, taking the Yongding River mountain area as a representative watershed in China, the changes of different observed and simulated hydro-meteorological variables and their possible causes are analyzed on an inter-annual scale based on ground based observations and remotely sensed data of hydrology, meteorology and underlying surface characteristics from 1956 to 2016. The results show that the annual natural runoff of Guanting hydrological station in the main stream of the Yongding River, Cetian hydrological station and Xiangshuibao hydrological station in the tributary of the Yongding River all have a significant decreasing trend and abrupt changes, and all the abrupt change points of the annual natural runoff series of the three hydrological stations appear in the early 1980s. On the inter-annual scale, the water balance model with double parameters is unable to effectively simulate the natural surface runoff after the abrupt change points. The annual average precipitation after the abrupt change points decreases by no more than 10%, compared with that before the abrupt change points. However, the precipitation from July to August, which is the main runoff-production period, decreases by more than 25%, besides the intra-annual temporal distribution of precipitation becoming uniform and a significant decrease in effective rainfall, which is the source of the runoff. Meanwhile, the NDVI in the basin show an increasing trend, while the groundwater level and land water storage decrease significantly. These factors do not lead only to the continuous reduction of the annual natural runoff in the Yongding River mountain area from 1956 to 2016, but also result in significant changes of the hydro-meteorological relationship in the basin.
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