•The factors affecting vegetation dynamics were estimated with Geodetector.•Vegetation trend went through a general negative development.•The importance of natural factors was greater than human ...activities.•Soil type contributed the most to vegetation change.•The interaction was far more significant than individual factor.
Exploring vegetation dynamics and their responses to different natural and anthropogenic factors is crucial for understanding ecosystem processes in the context of global change. As an important ecological security barrier in Southwest China, the northwestern Yunnan Plateau (NYP) provides a variety of ecosystem services. In this study, we investigated the spatiotemporal variation in vegetation cover and quantitatively analysed the relative contributions of potential influencing factors and their interactions to vegetation change on the NYP from 2005 to 2015 using a novel spatial analysis method, the Geodetector model (GDM). Additionally, the most suitable types or ranges of the main influencing factors that were conducive to vegetation growth were identified. Our results showed that the trend of vegetation cover on the NYP was generally negative, with a rate of − 0.0031 yr−1 during the 11-year study period, and was spatially heterogeneous. Areas with obviously decreasing trends were almost twice as large as those with increasing trends (27.49% and 14.37%, respectively) and were mainly concentrated in southeastern and northern Dali as well as the central part of Diqing. Vegetation dynamics were primarily driven by soil type (24.8%), elevation (18.6%), geomorphic type (16.1%), and vegetation type (13.2%), and anthropogenic factors played a weak role in vegetation change, with a contribution of less than 10%, demonstrating that the influences of natural factors on vegetation change were greater than those of anthropogenic factors. Moreover, the interaction of pairwise factors played a more important role in affecting vegetation dynamics than did each factor individually. These findings are helpful for better understanding the complex mechanisms of vegetation change and providing scientific suggestions for the prevention of vegetation degradation in fragile ecosystems.
The MIX inventory is developed for the years 2008 and 2010 to support the Model Inter-Comparison Study for Asia (MICS-Asia) and the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF HTAP) by a ...mosaic of up-to-date regional emission inventories. Emissions are estimated for all major anthropogenic sources in 29 countries and regions in Asia. We conducted detailed comparisons of different regional emission inventories and incorporated the best available ones for each region into the mosaic inventory at a uniform spatial and temporal resolution. Emissions are aggregated to five anthropogenic sectors: power, industry, residential, transportation, and agriculture. We estimate the total Asian emissions of 10 species in 2010 as follows: 51.3 Tg SO2, 52.1 Tg NOx, 336.6 Tg CO, 67.0 Tg NMVOC (non-methane volatile organic compounds), 28.8 Tg NH3, 31.7 Tg PM10, 22.7 Tg PM2.5, 3.5 Tg BC, 8.3 Tg OC, and 17.3 Pg CO2. Emissions from China and India dominate the emissions of Asia for most of the species. We also estimated Asian emissions in 2006 using the same methodology of MIX. The relative change rates of Asian emissions for the period of 2006–2010 are estimated as follows: −8.1 % for SO2, +19.2 % for NOx, +3.9 % for CO, +15.5 % for NMVOC, +1.7 % for NH3, −3.4 % for PM10, −1.6 % for PM2.5, +5.5 % for BC, +1.8 % for OC, and +19.9 % for CO2. Model-ready speciated NMVOC emissions for SAPRC-99 and CB05 mechanisms were developed following a profile-assignment approach. Monthly gridded emissions at a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° are developed and can be accessed from http://www.meicmodel.org/dataset-mix.
In recent years, cultural tourism has increasingly embraced museum visits. Museums serve as both cultural heritage guardians and integral parts of tourist destinations, significantly impacting ...visitor satisfaction and experience. Moreover, online museum reviews have become a crucial indicator of museum service quality, visitor experience, and public feedback in the digital age. An analysis of online reviews on major tourism websites and social media platforms can assist museums in developing appropriate management strategies. This study employed the structural topic model (STM) to analyze online museum reviews, identifying three primary attributes of museums and visitors’ personal experiences, as well as 19 sub-attributes. The study confirmed that core offerings have a positive impact on visitor experience and satisfaction, while peripheral services and overall ambiance are also positively related to visitor experience and satisfaction. Furthermore, the results of structural equation modeling demonstrated that visitors’ personal experiences have a positive impact on satisfaction. The results of structural equation modeling analysis support all seven hypothesized relationships. These findings will assist museum managers in developing effective management strategies and future plans.
To improve the understanding of the cost and benefit of photovoltaic (PV) power generation in China, we analyze the per kWh cost, fossil energy replacement and level of CO2 mitigation, as well as the ...cost per unit of reduced CO2 of PV power generation in 2020 at the province level. Three potential PV systems are examined: large-scale PV (LSPV), building-integrated PV (BIPV), and distributed PV systems used in remote rural areas (which have very low capacities). The results show that in 2020 PV power generation could save 17.4Mtce fossil energy and 46.5Tg CO2, compared with 600MWe coal-fired supercritical units. Also in 2020, the costs of solar electricity could be reduced by approximately 60% as compared to 2010, but would still be 11–74% higher than the current grid prices. The PV electricity costs vary significantly among provinces. In the economically developed eastern provinces, the PV electricity (mainly BIPV) is 0.67–0.86RMB/kWh. This rate is close to grid parity owing to high grid prices, but the CO2 mitigation cost is high (456–693RMB/Mg CO2). The PV electricity (mainly LSPV) in solar-resource-rich western provinces has lower cost (0.45–0.75 RMB/kWh) and lower CO2 mitigation cost (172–419RMB/Mg CO2), but is farther from grid parity due to the low local grid price. From a cost-effective perspective, LSPV in the west provinces should be the first priority in PV deployment strategies, and should receive strong financial support from the government. This study provides a quantitative, province-specific analysis of PV power generation, which can be used to support various PV subsidy policies.
Typhoons are natural disasters characterized by their high frequency of occurrence and significant impact, often leading to secondary disasters. In this study, we propose a prediction model for the ...trend of typhoon disasters. Utilizing neural networks, we calculate the forgetting gate, update gate, and output gate to forecast typhoon intensity, position, and disaster trends. By employing the concept of big data, we collected typhoon data using Python technology and verified the model's performance. Overall, the model exhibited a good fit, particularly for strong tropical storms. However, improvements are needed to enhance the forecasting accuracy for tropical depressions, typhoons, and strong typhoons. The model demonstrated a small average error in predicting the latitude and longitude of the typhoon's center position, and the predicted path closely aligned with the actual trajectory.
Millions of people die every year from diseases caused by exposure to outdoor air pollution. Some studies have estimated premature mortality related to local sources of air pollution, but local air ...quality can also be affected by atmospheric transport of pollution from distant sources. International trade is contributing to the globalization of emission and pollution as a result of the production of goods (and their associated emissions) in one region for consumption in another region. The effects of international trade on air pollutant emissions, air quality and health have been investigated regionally, but a combined, global assessment of the health impacts related to international trade and the transport of atmospheric air pollution is lacking. Here we combine four global models to estimate premature mortality caused by fine particulate matter (PM
) pollution as a result of atmospheric transport and the production and consumption of goods and services in different world regions. We find that, of the 3.45 million premature deaths related to PM
pollution in 2007 worldwide, about 12 per cent (411,100 deaths) were related to air pollutants emitted in a region of the world other than that in which the death occurred, and about 22 per cent (762,400 deaths) were associated with goods and services produced in one region for consumption in another. For example, PM
pollution produced in China in 2007 is linked to more than 64,800 premature deaths in regions other than China, including more than 3,100 premature deaths in western Europe and the USA; on the other hand, consumption in western Europe and the USA is linked to more than 108,600 premature deaths in China. Our results reveal that the transboundary health impacts of PM
pollution associated with international trade are greater than those associated with long-distance atmospheric pollutant transport.
Two important reasons for China’s air pollution are the high emission factors (emission per unit of product) of pollution sources and the high emission intensity (emissions per unit of GDP) of the ...industrial structure. Therefore, a wide variety of policy measures, including both emission abatement technologies and economic adjustment, must be implemented. To support such measures, this study used the production- and consumption-based emissions accounting approaches to simulate the SO2, NO x , PM2.5, and VOC emissions flows among producers and consumers. This study analyzed the emissions and GDP performance of 36 production sectors. The results showed that the equipment, machinery, and devices manufacturing and construction sectors contributed more than 50% of air pollutant emissions, and most of their products were used for capital formation and export. The service sector had the lowest emission intensities, and its output was mainly consumed by households and the government. In China, the emission intensities of production activities triggered by capital formation and export were approximately twice that of the service sector triggered by final consumption expenditure. This study suggests that China should control air pollution using the following strategies: applying end-of-pipe abatement technologies and using cleaner fuels to further decrease the emission factors associated with rural cooking, electricity generation, and the transportation sector; continuing to limit highly emission-intensive but low value-added exports; developing a plan to reduce construction activities; and increasing the proportion of service GDP in the national economy.
Supply chain finance has shown remarkable results in alleviating the financial constraints of small and medium-sized enterprises. However, most studies have concentrated on the two-tier supply chain ...while ignoring the financing issues of the deep-tier supply chain. This study introduced the blockchain-enabled financing mode now utilized in the manufacturing industry and constructed a three-tier agricultural supply chain considering the farmer’s financial constraints. The main contributions of this article are (1) presenting the blockchain-enabled financing mode in the three-tier agricultural supply chain and (2) investigating supply chain decision-making in the three-tier supply chain when the tier-2 supplier is financially constrained, comparing advance payment and the blockchain-enabled financing mode. Relevant parameter estimations were realized using the data of the last ten years, and numerical analyses were conducted. The results show that when the farmer’s bank’s financing capability exceeds the acquirer’s, the farmer is motivated to select the blockchain-enabled financing mode. However, a win-win situation among the three-tier supply chain is only achievable when the transmission-fee rate falls within a particular range. In addition, if government agencies wish to promote blockchain technology by subsidizing blockchain-enabled financing, they might support the farmer in obtaining a bank loan at a cheaper interest rate. All members of the supply chain would benefit from this.
Substantial quantities of air pollution and related health impacts are ultimately attributable to household consumption. However, how consumption pattern affects air pollution impacts remains ...unclear. Here we show, of the 1.08 (0.74-1.42) million premature deaths due to anthropogenic PM
exposure in China in 2012, 20% are related to household direct emissions through fuel use and 24% are related to household indirect emissions embodied in consumption of goods and services. Income is strongly associated with air pollution-related deaths for urban residents in which health impacts are dominated by indirect emissions. Despite a larger and wealthier urban population, the number of deaths related to rural consumption is higher than that related to urban consumption, largely due to direct emissions from solid fuel combustion in rural China. Our results provide quantitative insight to consumption-based accounting of air pollution and related deaths and may inform more effective and equitable clean air policies in China.
Germplasm resources are an important basis for genetic breeding and analysis of complex traits, and research on genetic diversity is conducive to the exploration and creation of new types of ...germplasm. In this study, the distribution frequency, coefficient of variation, Shannon–Wiener index, and variance and cluster analyses were used to analyze the diversity and trait differences of 39 fruit phenotypic traits from 570 pear accessions, which included 456 pear accessions from 11 species and 114 interspecific hybrid cultivars that had been stored in the National Germplasm Repository of Apple and Pear (Xingcheng, China). The comprehensive evaluation indices were screened by correlation, principal component and regression analyses. A total of 132 variant types were detected in 28 categorical traits of pear germplasm fruit, which indicate a rich diversity. The diversity indices in decreasing order were: fruit shape (1.949), attitude of calyx (1.908), flesh texture type (1.700), persistency of calyx (1.681), russet location (1.658), relief of area around eye basin (1.644), flavor (1.610) and ground color (1.592). The coefficient of variation of titratable acidity in the 11 numerical traits of pear germplasm fruit was as high as 128.43%, which could more effectively reflect the differences between pear accessions. The phenotypic differentiation coefficient Vst (66.4%) among the five cultivated pear species, including Pyrus bretschneideri (White Pear), P. pyrifolia (Sand Pear), P. ussuriensis (Ussurian Pear), P. sinkiangensis (Xinjiang Pear), and P. communis (European Pear), was higher than the within population phenotypic differentiation coefficient Vst (33.6%). The variation among populations was the main source of variation in pear fruit traits. A hierarchical cluster analysis divided the 389 accessions of six cultivated pear species, including P. pashia (Himalayan Pear), into six categories. There were certain characteristics within the populations, and the differences between populations were not completely clustered by region. For example, Sand Pear cultivars from Japan and the Korean Peninsula clustered together with those from China. Most of the White Pear cultivars clustered with the Sand Pear, and a few clustered with the Ussurian Pear cultivars. The Ussurian Pear and European Pear cultivars clustered separately. The Xinjiang Pear and Himalayan Pear did not cluster together, and neither did the cultivars. Seventeen traits, three describing fruit weight and edible rate (fruit diameter, fruit length and fruit core size), five describing outer quality and morphological characteristics (over color, amount of russeting, dot obviousness, fruit shape, and stalk length), and nine describing inner quality (flesh color, juiciness of flesh, aroma, flavor, flesh texture, flesh texture type, soluble solid contents, titratable acidity, and eating quality) were selected from the 39 traits by principal component and stepwise regression analyses. These 17 traits could reflect 99.3% of the total variation and can be used as a comprehensive evaluation index for pear germplasm resources.
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