Summary Background To our knowledge, a systematic comparison of predictors of mortality in middle-aged to elderly individuals has not yet been done. We investigated predictors of mortality in UK ...Biobank participants during a 5 year period. We aimed to investigate the associations between most of the available measurements and 5 year all-cause and cause-specific mortality, and to develop and validate a prediction score for 5 year mortality using only self-reported information. Methods Participants were enrolled in the UK Biobank from April, 2007, to July, 2010, from 21 assessment centres across England, Wales, and Scotland with standardised procedures. In this prospective population-based study, we assessed sex-specific associations of 655 measurements of demographics, health, and lifestyle with all-cause mortality and six cause-specific mortality categories in UK Biobank participants using the Cox proportional hazard model. We excluded variables that were missing in more than 80% of the participants and all cardiorespiratory fitness test measurements because summary data were not available. Validation of the prediction score was done in participants enrolled at the Scottish centres. UK life tables and census information were used to calibrate the score to the overall UK population. Findings About 500 000 participants were included in the UK Biobank. We excluded participants with more than 80% variables missing (n=746). Of 498 103 UK Biobank participants included (54% of whom were women) aged 37–73 years, 8532 (39% of whom were women) died during a median follow-up of 4·9 years (IQR 4·33–5·22). Self-reported health (C-index including age 0·74 95% CI 0·73–0·75) was the strongest predictor of all-cause mortality in men and a previous cancer diagnosis (0·73 0·72–0·74) was the strongest predictor of all-cause mortality in women. When excluding individuals with major diseases or disorders (Charlson comorbidity index >0; n=355 043), measures of smoking habits were the strongest predictors of all-cause mortality. The prognostic score including 13 self-reported predictors for men and 11 for women achieved good discrimination (0·80 0·77–0·83 for men and 0·79 0·76–0·83 for women) and significantly outperformed the Charlson comorbidity index (p<0·0001 in men and p=0·0007 in women). A dedicated website allows the interactive exploration of all results along with calculation of individual risk through an online questionnaire. Interpretation Measures that can simply be obtained by questionnaires and without physical examination were the strongest predictors of all-cause mortality in the UK Biobank population. The prediction score we have developed accurately predicts 5 year all-cause mortality and can be used by individuals to improve health awareness, and by health professionals and organisations to identify high-risk individuals and guide public policy. Funding Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation and the Swedish Research Council.
• GWAS have greatly increased the knowledge about obesity genetics. • Common forms of obesity are polygenic with small effects sizes of each variant. • The largest genetic effects size on obesity are ...reported for FTO variants. • We expect large advances over the coming years regarding knowledge on gene function.
Until just a few years ago, the genetic determinants of obesity and metabolic syndrome were largely unknown, with the exception of a few forms of monogenic extreme obesity. Since genome-wide association studies (GWAS) became available, large advances have been made. The first single nucleotide polymorphism robustly associated with increased body mass index (BMI) was in 2007 mapped to a gene with for the time unknown function. This gene, now known as fat mass and obesity associated (FTO) has been repeatedly replicated in several ethnicities and is affecting obesity by regulating appetite. Since the first report from a GWAS of obesity, an increasing number of markers have been shown to be associated with BMI, other measures of obesity or fat distribution and metabolic syndrome. This systematic review of obesity GWAS will summarize genome-wide significant findings for obesity and metabolic syndrome and briefly give a few suggestions of what is to be expected in the next few years.
Atherosclerosis is the process that underlies heart attack and stroke. A characteristic feature of the atherosclerotic plaque is the accumulation of apoptotic cells in the necrotic core. ...Prophagocytic antibody-based therapies are currently being explored to stimulate the phagocytic clearance of apoptotic cells; however, these therapies can cause off-target clearance of healthy tissues, which leads to toxicities such as anaemia. Here we developed a macrophage-specific nanotherapy based on single-walled carbon nanotubes loaded with a chemical inhibitor of the antiphagocytic CD47-SIRPα signalling axis. We demonstrate that these single-walled carbon nanotubes accumulate within the atherosclerotic plaque, reactivate lesional phagocytosis and reduce the plaque burden in atheroprone apolipoprotein-E-deficient mice without compromising safety, and thereby overcome a key translational barrier for this class of drugs. Single-cell RNA sequencing analysis reveals that prophagocytic single-walled carbon nanotubes decrease the expression of inflammatory genes linked to cytokine and chemokine pathways in lesional macrophages, which demonstrates the potential of 'Trojan horse' nanoparticles to prevent atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease.
Heart failure (HF) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. A small proportion of HF cases are attributable to monogenic cardiomyopathies and existing genome-wide association studies ...(GWAS) have yielded only limited insights, leaving the observed heritability of HF largely unexplained. We report results from a GWAS meta-analysis of HF comprising 47,309 cases and 930,014 controls. Twelve independent variants at 11 genomic loci are associated with HF, all of which demonstrate one or more associations with coronary artery disease (CAD), atrial fibrillation, or reduced left ventricular function, suggesting shared genetic aetiology. Functional analysis of non-CAD-associated loci implicate genes involved in cardiac development (MYOZ1, SYNPO2L), protein homoeostasis (BAG3), and cellular senescence (CDKN1A). Mendelian randomisation analysis supports causal roles for several HF risk factors, and demonstrates CAD-independent effects for atrial fibrillation, body mass index, and hypertension. These findings extend our knowledge of the pathways underlying HF and may inform new therapeutic strategies.
The purpose of this study was to investigate associations between combinations of body mass index (BMI) categories and metabolic syndrome (MetS) and the risk of cardiovascular disease and death in ...middle-aged men.
At age 50 years, cardiovascular risk factors were assessed in 1758 participants without diabetes in the community-based Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (ULSAM). According to BMI-MetS status, they were categorized as normal weight (BMI <25 kg/m(2)) without MetS (National Cholesterol Education Program criteria; n=891), normal weight with MetS (n=64), overweight (BMI 25 to 30 kg/m(2)) without MetS (n=582), overweight with MetS (n=125), obese (BMI >30 kg/m(2)) without MetS (n=30), or obese with MetS (n=66). During follow-up (median 30 years), 788 participants died, and 681 developed cardiovascular disease (composite of cardiovascular death or hospitalization for myocardial infarction, stroke, or heart failure). In Cox proportional-hazards models that adjusted for age, smoking, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, an increased risk for cardiovascular disease was observed in normal-weight participants with MetS (hazard ratio 1.63, 95% confidence interval 1.11 to 2.37), overweight participants without MetS (hazard ratio 1.52, 95% confidence interval 1.28 to 1.80), overweight participants with MetS (hazard ratio 1.74, 95% confidence interval 1.32 to 2.30), obese participants without MetS (hazard ratio 1.95, 95% confidence interval 1.14 to 3.34), and obese participants with MetS (hazard ratio 2.55, 95% confidence interval 1.81 to 3.58) compared with normal-weight individuals without MetS. These BMI-MetS categories significantly predicted total mortality rate in a similar pattern.
Middle-aged men with MetS had increased risk for cardiovascular events and total death regardless of BMI status during more than 30 years of follow-up. In contrast to previous reports, overweight and obese individuals without MetS also had an increased risk. The present data refute the notion that overweight and obesity without MetS are benign conditions.
There is limited data on host-specific genetic determinants of susceptibility to bacterial and viral infections. Genome-wide association studies using large population cohorts can be a first step ...towards identifying patients prone to infectious diseases and targets for new therapies. Genetic variants associated with clinically relevant entities of bacterial and viral infections (e.g., abdominal infections, respiratory infections, and sepsis) in 337,484 participants of the UK Biobank cohort were explored by genome-wide association analyses. Cases (n = 81,179) were identified based on ICD-10 diagnosis codes of hospital inpatient and death registries. Functional annotation was performed using gene expression (eQTL) data. Fifty-seven unique genome-wide significant loci were found, many of which are novel in the context of infectious diseases. Some of the detected genetic variants were previously reported associated with infectious, inflammatory, autoimmune, and malignant diseases or key components of the immune system (e.g., white blood cells, cytokines). Fine mapping of the HLA region revealed significant associations with HLA-DQA1, HLA-DRB1, and HLA-DRB4 locus alleles. PPP1R14A showed strong colocalization with abdominal infections and gene expression in sigmoid and transverse colon, suggesting causality. Shared significant loci across infections and non-infectious phenotypes in the UK Biobank cohort were found, suggesting associations for example between SNPs identified for abdominal infections and CRP, rheumatoid arthritis, and diabetes mellitus. We report multiple loci associated with bacterial and viral infections. A better understanding of the genetic determinants of bacterial and viral infections can be useful to identify patients at risk and in the development of new drugs.
Observational studies suggest alcohol use promotes the development of some adverse cardiometabolic traits but protects against others including outcomes related to coronary artery disease. We used ...Mendelian randomization (MR) to explore causal relationships between the degree of alcohol consumption and several cardiometabolic traits in the UK Biobank. Using the well-established ADH1B Arg47His variant (rs1229984) and up to 24 additional SNPs recently found to be associated with alcohol consumption in an independent dataset as instruments, we conducted two-stage least squares and inverse weighted variance MR analyses, both as one-sample analyses in the UK Biobank and as two-sample analyses in external consortia. In the UK Biobank inverse variance weighted analyses, we found that one additional drink of alcohol per day was positively associated with systolic blood pressure (beta = 2.65 mmHg 1.40, 3.89), hemorrhagic stroke (OR = 2.25 1.41, 3.60), and atrial fibrillation (OR = 1.26 1.07, 1.48), which were replicated in multivariable analyses. Alcohol was also associated with all cardiovascular disease and all-cause death. A positive association with myocardial infarction did not replicate in multivariable analysis, with suggestive mediation through blood pressure; similarly, a positive association between alcohol use with type 2 diabetes was mitigated by BMI in multivariable analysis. Findings were generally null in replication with two-sample analyses. Alcohol was not protective for any disease outcome with any analysis method, dataset, or strata. Stratifications by sex and smoking in the UK Biobank revealed higher point estimates of risk for several outcomes for men and mixed results for smoking strata, but no statistically significant heterogeneity. Our results are consistent with an overall harmful and/or null effect of alcohol on cardiometabolic health at all levels of use and suggest that even moderate alcohol use should not be promoted as a part of a healthy diet and lifestyle.
Background
Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease is common and is associated with rising morbidity and mortality in the UK. Cardiovascular disease is the main cause of death in people with nonalcoholic ...fatty liver disease.
Aims
To determine the association between baseline cardiovascular risk factors with fatty liver index, and to investigate the association between fatty liver index and the incidence of cardiovascular disease in the UK.
Methods
This study is a population-based retrospective cohort study using the UK Biobank database.
Results
The mean fatty liver index in the study cohort was 44.9, and 33.7% met the criteria for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease. Fatty liver index was significantly associated with a wide range of cardiovascular risk factors at baseline. During a mean follow-up of 7.86 years, the combined incidence of cardiovascular disease was 6.92 per 1000-person years at risk. We found significant association between fatty liver index and incident cardiovascular disease in the fully adjusted model. We found significant association between fatty liver index and incident cardiovascular disease in subgroups stratified by BMI as well as subgroups with fatty liver index < 30, < 60, and ≥ 60.
Conclusions
Fatty liver index not only predicts NAFLD diagnosis, but also indicates baseline and future development of cardiovascular disease on long-term follow-up across weight categories and fatty liver index spectrum. These findings can inform clinicians and other stakeholders on cardiovascular disease management and preventive efforts. Patients with high fatty liver index should be counseled on the increased future risk of developing cardiovascular disease.
Background The leukotriene pathway has been associated with an increased cardiovascular risk. However, the effects of the antileukotriene treatment used in asthmatic patients on cardiovascular ...outcomes have remained largely unexplored. Objective We sought to examine a potential protective role of the leukotriene receptor antagonist montelukast on future risk of incident and recurrent myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke. Methods A nationwide population-based cohort of approximately 7 million persons integrating data from the Prescribed Drug, Patient, Cause of Death, Income, Educational, and Emigration Registers was followed from July 1, 2005, to December 31, 2008. Analyses were performed in the whole population after exclusion of subjects with a prior cardiovascular diagnosis (incident events; sample size, n = 6,910,923 for myocardial infarction and n = 6,932,578 for stroke) and in subjects with a prior diagnosis (recurrent events; n = 153,937 and n = 132,291 for stroke and myocardial infarction, respectively). Results Cox proportional hazard ratios (HRs) did not reveal an association of montelukast use with incident events. In contrast to these findings, montelukast use was associated with a lower risk for recurrent stroke (HR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.38-0.99) accounting for age, sex, education level, and yearly income. Adjusting the latter finding also for respiratory and cardiovascular medications and diagnoses revealed similar point estimates (HR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.39-1.0). Post hoc analyses revealed a significant association of montelukast use with a lower risk for recurrent myocardial infarction in male subjects (HR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.43-0.99). Conclusion These data provide a first indication for a potential role of the antiasthma drug montelukast for secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease.
Accurate risk assessment of an individuals' propensity to develop cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) is crucial for the prevention of these conditions. Numerous published risk prediction models used for ...CVD risk assessment are based on conventional risk factors and include only a limited number of biomarkers. The addition of novel biomarkers can boost the discriminative ability of risk prediction models for CVDs with different pathogenesis. The present study reports the development of risk prediction models for a range of heterogeneous CVDs, including coronary artery disease (CAD), stroke, deep vein thrombosis (DVT), and abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA), as well as for Type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM2), a major CVD risk factor. In addition to conventional risk factors, the models incorporate various blood biomarkers and comorbidities to improve both individual and population stratification. An automatic variable selection approach was developed to generate the best set of explanatory variables for each model from the initial panel of risk factors. In total, up to 254,220 UK Biobank participants (ranging from 215,269 to 254,220 for different CVDs and DM2) were included in the analyses. The derived prediction models utilizing Cox proportional hazards regression achieved consistent discrimination performance (C-index) for all diseases: CAD, 0.794 (95% CI, 0.787-0.801); DM2, 0.909 (95% CI, 0.903-0.916); stroke, 0.778 (95% CI, 0.756-0.801); DVT, 0.743 (95% CI, 0.737-0.749); and AAA, 0.893 (95% CI, 0.874-0.912). When validated on various subpopulations, they demonstrated higher discrimination in healthier and middle-age individuals. In general, calibration of a five-year risk of developing the CVDs and DM2 demonstrated incremental overestimation of disease-related conditions amongst the highest decile of risk probabilities. In summary, the risk prediction models described were validated with high discrimination and good calibration for several CVDs and DM2. These models incorporate multiple shared predictor variables and may be integrated into a single platform to enhance clinical stratification to impact health outcomes.
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