Advanced melanoma remains a disease with poor prognosis. Several serologic markers have been investigated to help monitoring and prognostication, but to date only lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) has been ...validated as a standard prognostic factor biomarker for this disease by the American Joint Committee on Cancer. In this work, we built a semi-mechanistic model to explore the relationship between the time course of several circulating biomarkers and overall or progression free survival in advanced melanoma patients treated with adjuvant high-dose interferon-Formula: see text. Additionally, due to the adverse interferon tolerability, a semi-mechanistic model describing the side effects of the treatment in the absolute neutrophil counts is proposed in order to simultaneously analyze the benefits and toxic effects of this treatment. The results of our analysis suggest that the relative change from baseline of LDH was the most significant predictor of the overall survival of the patients. Unfortunately, there was no significant difference in the proportion of patients with elevated serum biomarkers between the patients who recurred and those who remained free of disease. Still, we believe that the modelling framework presented in this work of circulating biomarkers and adverse effects could constitute an additional strategy for disease monitoring in advance melanoma patients.
Intraoperative targeting of the analgesic effect still lacks an optimal solution. Opioids are currently the main drug used to achieve antinociception, and although underdosing can lead to an ...increased stress response, overdose can also lead to undesirable adverse effects. To better understand how to achieve the optimal analgesic effect of opioids, we studied the influence of remifentanil on the pupillary reflex dilation (PRD) and its relationship with the reflex movement response to a standardized noxious stimulus. The main objective was to generate population pharmacodynamic models relating remifentanil predicted concentrations to movement and to pupillary dilation during general anesthesia. A total of 78 patients undergoing gynecological surgery under general anesthesia were recruited for the study. PRD and movement response to a tetanic stimulus were measured multiple times before and after surgery. We used nonlinear mixed effects modeling to generate a population pharmacodynamic model to describe both the time profiles of PRD and movement responses to noxious stimulation. Our model demonstrated that movement and PRD are equally depressed by remifentanil. Using the developed model, we changed the intensity of stimulation and simulated remifentanil predicted concentrations maximizing the probability of absence of movement response. An estimated effect site concentration of 2 ng/ml of remifentanil was found to inhibit movement to a tetanic stimulation with a probability of 81%.
The literature on complex diseases is abundant but not always quantitative. This is particularly so for Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD), where many molecular pathways are qualitatively well ...described but this information cannot be used in traditional quantitative mathematical models employed in drug development. We propose the elaboration and validation of a logic network for IBD able to capture the information available in the literature that will facilitate the identification/validation of therapeutic targets.
In this article, we propose a logic model for Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) which consists of 43 nodes and 298 qualitative interactions. The model presented is able to describe the pathogenic mechanisms of the disorder and qualitatively describes the characteristic chronic inflammation. A perturbation analysis performed on the IBD network indicates that the model is robust. Also, as described in clinical trials, a simulation of anti-TNFα, anti-IL2 and Granulocyte and Monocyte Apheresis showed a decrease in the Metalloproteinases node (MMPs), which means a decrease in tissue damage. In contrast, as clinical trials have demonstrated, a simulation of anti-IL17 and anti-IFNγ or IL10 overexpression therapy did not show any major change in MMPs expression, as corresponds to a failed therapy. The model proved to be a promising in silico tool for the evaluation of potential therapeutic targets, the identification of new IBD biomarkers, the integration of IBD polymorphisms to anticipate responders and non-responders and can be reduced and transformed in quantitative model/s.
Numerous problems encountered in computational biology can be formulated as optimization problems. In this context, optimization of drug release characteristics or dosing schedules for anticancer ...agents has become a prominent area not only for the development of new drugs, but also for established drugs. However, in complex systems, optimization of drug exposure is not a trivial task and cannot be efficiently addressed through trial-error simulation exercises. Finding a solution to those problems is a challenging task which requires more advanced strategies like optimal control theory. In this work, we perform an optimal control analysis on a previously developed computational model for the testosterone effects of triptorelin in prostate cancer patients with the goal of finding optimal drug-release characteristics. We demonstrate how numerical control optimization of non-linear models can be used to find better therapeutic approaches in order to improve the final outcome of the patients.
Many drugs that have been proposed for treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) are reported to cause cardiac adverse events, including ventricular arrhythmias. In order to properly weigh ...risks against potential benefits, particularly when decisions must be made quickly, mathematical modeling of both drug disposition and drug action can be useful for predicting patient response and making informed decisions. Here, we explored the potential effects on cardiac electrophysiology of four drugs proposed to treat COVID‐19: lopinavir, ritonavir, chloroquine, and azithromycin, as well as combination therapy involving these drugs. Our study combined simulations of pharmacokinetics (PKs) with quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) modeling of ventricular myocytes to predict potential cardiac adverse events caused by these treatments. Simulation results predicted that drug combinations can lead to greater cellular action potential prolongation, analogous to QT prolongation, compared with drugs given in isolation. The combination effect can result from both PK and pharmacodynamic drug interactions. Importantly, simulations of different patient groups predicted that women with pre‐existing heart disease are especially susceptible to drug‐induced arrhythmias, compared with diseased men or healthy individuals of either sex. Statistical analysis of population simulations revealed the molecular factors that make certain women with heart failure especially susceptible to arrhythmias. Overall, the results illustrate how PK and QSP modeling may be combined to more precisely predict cardiac risks of COVID‐19 therapies.
BackgroundTargeting the DNA damage repair (DDR) pathways is an attractive strategy for boosting cancer immunotherapy. Ceralasertib (AZD6738) is an oral kinase inhibitor of ataxia telangiectasia and ...Rad3 related protein, which is a master regulator of DDR. We conducted a phase II trial of ceralasertib plus durvalumab in patients with previously treated advanced gastric cancer (AGC) to demonstrate the safety, tolerability, and clinical activity of the combination.MethodsThis phase II, open-label, single-center, non-randomized study was designed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of ceralasertib in combination with durvalumab in patients with AGC. The study drug regimen was ceralasertib (240 mg two times a day) days 15–28 in a 28-day cycle in combination with durvalumab (1500 mg) at day 1 every 4 weeks. The primary end point was overall response rate (ORR) by Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (V.1.1). Exploratory biomarker analysis was performed using fresh tumor biopsies in all enrolled patients.ResultsAmong 31 patients, the ORR, disease control rate, median progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival were 22.6% (95% CI 9.6% to 41.1%), 58.1% (95% CI 39.1% to 75.5%), 3.0 (95% CI 2.1 to 3.9) months, and 6.7 (95% CI 3.8 to 9.6) months, respectively. Common adverse events were manageable with dose modification. A subgroup of patients with a loss of ataxia telangiectasia mutated (ATM) expression and/or high proportion of mutational signature attributable to homologous repair deficiency (sig. HRD) demonstrated a significantly longer PFS than those with intact ATM and low sig. HRD (5.60 vs 1.65 months; HR 0.13, 95% CI 0.045 to 0.39; long-rank p<0.001). During the study treatment, upregulation of the innate immune response by cytosolic DNA, activation of intratumoral lymphocytes, and expansion of circulating tumor-reactive CD8 +T cell clones were identified in responders. Enrichment of the tumor vasculature signature was associated with treatment resistance.ConclusionsCeralasertib plus durvalumab has promising antitumor activity, with durable responses in patients with refractory AGC. Thus, a biomarker-driven trial is required.Trial registrationNCT03780608.
The model-informed drug discovery and development paradigm is now well established among the pharmaceutical industry and regulatory agencies. This success has been mainly due to the ability of ...pharmacometrics to bring together different modeling strategies, such as population pharmacokinetics/pharmacodynamics (PK/PD) and systems biology/pharmacology. However, there are promising quantitative approaches that are still seldom used by pharmacometricians and that deserve consideration. One such case is the stochastic modeling approach, which can be important when modeling small populations because random events can have a huge impact on these systems. In this review, we aim to raise awareness of stochastic models and how to combine them with existing modeling techniques, with the ultimate goal of making future drug–disease models more versatile and realistic.
Nonlinear mixed-effect modeling is currently the most successful methodology used to characterize the PK/PD data from different individuals.Stochastic modeling approaches deserve consideration for use in model-informed drug discovery and development because events occurring at random can have important repercussions on disease progression and treatment effects, especially when population size is small.Stochastic models can also help in the refinement of the original structural PK/PD model.Deterministic systems have a greater mathematical simplicity, are computationally less demanding, and parameter estimation is well established with a large existing toolkit to help with model fitting and simulation.Coronavirus disease 2019 is the most recent application where researchers are building such models to describe the spread of this disease in the population.
Ceralasertib is a potent and selective oral inhibitor of the serine/threonine protein kinase ataxia telangiectasia and Rad3-related (ATR) protein.
Eligible patients with solid tumors, enriched for ...melanoma, received ceralasertib in combination with a fixed dose of paclitaxel (80 mg/m
on D1, D8, D15) in 28-day cycles. The dose of ceralasertib was escalated to reach an MTD in a rolling 6 design. The starting dose of ceralasertib was 40 mg QD. Fifty-seven patients (33 patients with melanoma who failed prior PD1/L1 treatment) were enrolled in 7 dose cohorts ranging from 40 mg QD to 240 mg BD plus weekly paclitaxel.
The RP2D was established as ceralasertib 240 mg BD days 1-14 plus paclitaxel 80 mg/m
on D1, D8, D15 every 28 days. The most common toxicities were neutropenia (
= 39, 68%), anemia (
= 25, 44%), and thrombocytopenia (
= 21, 37%). In the full analysis set of 57 patients, the overall response rate (ORR) was 22.6% (95% CI, 12.5-35.3). In 33 patients with melanoma, resistant to prior anti-PD1 therapy, the ORR was 33.3% (95% CI, 18.0-51.8). In the melanoma subset, the mPFS was 3.6 months (95% CI, 2.0-5.8), the median duration of response was 9.9 months (95% CI, 3.7-23.2), and the mOS was 7.4 months (95% CI, 5.7-11.9).
Ceralasertib in combination with paclitaxel was well tolerated in patients with advanced malignancies and showed evidence of antitumor activity. Durable responses were observed in patients with advanced cutaneous, acral, and mucosal melanoma resistant to anti-PD1/L1 treatment.
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This study reports the safety, tolerability, MTD, recommended phase II dose (RP2D), pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic profile, and preliminary antitumor activity of ceralasertib combined with ...carboplatin in patients with advanced solid tumors. It also examined exploratory predictive and pharmacodynamic biomarkers.
Eligible patients (n = 36) received a fixed dose of carboplatin (AUC5) with escalating doses of ceralasertib (20 mg twice daily to 60 mg once daily) in 21-day cycles. Sequential and concurrent combination dosing schedules were assessed.
Two ceralasertib MTD dose schedules, 20 mg twice daily on days 4-13 and 40 mg once daily on days 1-2, were tolerated with carboplatin AUC5; the latter was declared the RP2D. The most common treatment-emergent adverse events (Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events grade ≥3) were anemia (39%), thrombocytopenia (36%), and neutropenia (25%). Dose-limiting toxicities of grade 4 thrombocytopenia (n = 2; including one grade 4 platelet count decreased) and a combination of grade 4 thrombocytopenia and grade 3 neutropenia occurred in 3 patients. Ceralasertib was quickly absorbed (tmax ∼1 hour), with a terminal plasma half-life of 8-11 hours. Upregulation of pRAD50, indicative of ataxia telangiectasia mutated (ATM) activation, was observed in tumor biopsies during ceralasertib treatment. Two patients with absent or low ATM or SLFN11 protein expression achieved confirmed RECIST v1.1 partial responses. Eighteen of 34 (53%) response-evaluable patients had RECIST v1.1 stable disease.
The RP2D for ceralasertib plus carboplatin was established as ceralasertib 40 mg once daily on days 1-2 administered with carboplatin AUC5 every 3 weeks, with pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic studies confirming pharmacodynamic modulation and preliminary evidence of antitumor activity observed.
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