Summary
Amazonian droughts are predicted to become increasingly frequent and intense, and the vulnerability of Amazonian trees has become increasingly documented. However, little is known about the ...physiological mechanisms and the diversity of drought tolerance of tropical trees due to the lack of quantitative measurements.
Leaf water potential at wilting or turgor loss point (πtlp) is a determinant of the tolerance of leaves to drought stress and contributes to plant‐level physiological drought tolerance. Recently, it has been demonstrated that leaf osmotic water potential at full hydration (πo) is tightly correlated with πtlp. Estimating πtlp from osmometer measurements of πo is much faster than the standard pressure–volume curve approach of πtlp determination. We used this technique to estimate πtlp for 165 trees of 71 species, at three sites within forests in French Guiana. Our data set represents a significant increase in available data for this trait for tropical tree species.
Tropical trees showed a wider range of drought tolerance than previously found in the literature, πtlp ranging from −1·4 to −3·2 MPa. This range likely corresponds in part to adaptation and acclimation to occasionally extreme droughts during the dry season.
Leaf‐level drought tolerance varied across species, in agreement with the available published observations of species variation in drought‐induced mortality. On average, species with a more negative πtlp (i.e. with greater leaf‐level drought tolerance) occurred less frequently across the region than drought‐sensitive species.
Across individuals, πtlp correlated positively but weakly with leaf toughness (R2 = 0·22, P = 0·04) and leaf thickness (R2 = 0·03, P = 0·03). No correlation was detected with other functional traits (leaf mass per area, leaf area, nitrogen or carbon concentrations, carbon isotope ratio, sapwood density or bark thickness).
The variability in πtlp among species indicates a potential for highly diverse species responses to drought within given forest communities. Given the weak correlations between πtlp and traditionally measured plant functional traits, vegetation models seeking to predict forest response to drought should integrate improved quantification of comparative drought tolerance among tree species.
Lay Summary
This study introduces CNRM‐ESM2‐1, the Earth system (ES) model of second generation developed by CNRM‐CERFACS for the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). CNRM‐ESM2‐1 ...offers a higher model complexity than the Atmosphere‐Ocean General Circulation Model CNRM‐CM6‐1 by adding interactive ES components such as carbon cycle, aerosols, and atmospheric chemistry. As both models share the same code, physical parameterizations, and grid resolution, they offer a fully traceable framework to investigate how far the represented ES processes impact the model performance over present‐day, response to external forcing and future climate projections. Using a large variety of CMIP6 experiments, we show that represented ES processes impact more prominently the model response to external forcing than the model performance over present‐day. Both models display comparable performance at replicating modern observations although the mean climate of CNRM‐ESM2‐1 is slightly warmer than that of CNRM‐CM6‐1. This difference arises from land cover‐aerosol interactions where the use of different soil vegetation distributions between both models impacts the rate of dust emissions. This interaction results in a smaller aerosol burden in CNRM‐ESM2‐1 than in CNRM‐CM6‐1, leading to a different surface radiative budget and climate. Greater differences are found when comparing the model response to external forcing and future climate projections. Represented ES processes damp future warming by up to 10% in CNRM‐ESM2‐1 with respect to CNRM‐CM6‐1. The representation of land vegetation and the CO2‐water‐stomatal feedback between both models explain about 60% of this difference. The remainder is driven by other ES feedbacks such as the natural aerosol feedback.
Key Points
This study introduces CNRM‐ESM2‐1 and describes its set‐up for CMIP6
Represented Earth system processes further impact the model response to external forcing than the model performance over present‐day
Represented Earth system processes damp future warming by up to 10%
The high-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere are a nexus for the interaction between land surface physical properties and their exchange of carbon and energy with the atmosphere. At these ...latitudes, two carbon pools of planetary significance – those of the permanently frozen soils (permafrost), and of the great expanse of boreal forest – are vulnerable to destabilization in the face of currently observed climatic warming, the speed and intensity of which are expected to increase with time. Improved projections of future Arctic and boreal ecosystem transformation require improved land surface models that integrate processes specific to these cold biomes. To this end, this study lays out relevant new parameterizations in the ORCHIDEE-MICT land surface model. These describe the interactions between soil carbon, soil temperature and hydrology, and their resulting feedbacks on water and CO2 fluxes, in addition to a recently developed fire module. Outputs from ORCHIDEE-MICT, when forced by two climate input datasets, are extensively evaluated against (i) temperature gradients between the atmosphere and deep soils, (ii) the hydrological components comprising the water balance of the largest high-latitude basins, and (iii) CO2 flux and carbon stock observations. The model performance is good with respect to empirical data, despite a simulated excessive plant water stress and a positive land surface temperature bias. In addition, acute model sensitivity to the choice of input forcing data suggests that the calibration of model parameters is strongly forcing-dependent. Overall, we suggest that this new model design is at the forefront of current efforts to reliably estimate future perturbations to the high-latitude terrestrial environment.
Abstract
The year 2022 saw record breaking temperatures in Europe during both summer and fall. Similar to the recent 2018 drought, close to 30% (3.0 million km
2
) of the European continent was under ...severe summer drought. In 2022, the drought was located in central and southeastern Europe, contrasting the Northern-centered 2018 drought. We show, using multiple sets of observations, a reduction of net biospheric carbon uptake in summer (56-62 TgC) over the drought area. Specific sites in France even showed a widespread summertime carbon release by forests, additional to wildfires. Partial compensation (32%) for the decreased carbon uptake due to drought was offered by a warm autumn with prolonged biospheric carbon uptake. The severity of this second drought event in 5 years suggests drought-induced reduced carbon uptake to no longer be exceptional, and important to factor into Europe’s developing plans for net-zero greenhouse gas emissions that rely on carbon uptake by forests.
•An individual-based model is shown to be transferable across two tropical forests.•A limited subset of the parameters needs to be recalibrated across forest sites.•Model shows consistent response to ...climate forcing conditions at both sites.•Productivity increases but stem density and biomass decrease at higher temperatures.
Individual-based forest models (IBMs) are useful to investigate the effect of environment on forest structure and dynamics, but they are often restricted to site-specific applications. To build confidence for spatially distributed simulations, model transferability, i.e. the ability of the same model to provide reliable predictions at contrasting sites, has to be thoroughly tested. We tested the transferability of a spatially explicit forest IBM, TROLL, with a trait-based species parameterization and global gridded climate forcing, by applying it to two sites with sharply contrasting climate and floristic compositions across the tropics, one in South America and one in Southeast Asia. We identified which parameters are most influential for model calibration and assessed the model sensitivity to climatic conditions for a given calibration. TROLL produced realistic predictions of forest structure and dynamics at both sites and this necessitates the recalibration of only three parameters, namely photosynthesis efficiency, crown allometry and mortality rate. All three relate to key processes that constrain model transferability and warrant further model development and data acquisition, with mortality being a particular priority of improvement for the current generation of vegetation models. Varying the climatic conditions at both sites demonstrate similar, and expected, model responses: GPP increased with temperature and irradiance, while stem density and aboveground biomass declined as temperature increased. The climate dependence of productivity and biomass was mediated by plant respiration, carbon allocation and mortality, which has implications both on model development and on forecasting of future carbon dynamics. Our detailed examination of forest IBM transferability unveils key processes that need to improve in genericity before reliable large-scale implementations can be envisioned.
Display omitted
We present the latest version of the ISBA‐CTRIP land surface system, focusing on the representation of the land carbon cycle. We review the main improvements since the year 2012, mainly added modules ...for wild fires, carbon leaching through soil and transport of dissolved organic carbon to the ocean, and land cover changes but also improved representation of photosynthesis, respiration, and plant functional types. This version of ISBA‐CTRIP is fully described in terms of land carbon pools, fluxes, and their interactions. Results are compared with the previous version in an off‐line mode forced by observed climate during the historical time period. The two simulations are presented to demonstrate the model performance compared to an ensemble of observed and observation‐derived data sets for gross and net primary productivity, heterotrophic and autotrophic respiration, above and below ground biomass, litter, and soil carbon pools. New developments specific to the new version such as burned area, fire emissions, carbon leaching, and land cover are also validated against observations. The results show clearly that the latest version of ISBA‐CTRIP outperforms the former version and reproduces generally well the observed mean spatial patterns in carbon pools and fluxes, as well as the seasonal cycle of leaf area index. The trends of the global fluxes over the last 50 years agree with other global models and with available estimates. This comparison gives us confidence that the model represents the main processes involved in the terrestrial carbon cycle and can be used to explore future global change projections.
Plain Language Summary
The land surface exchanges energy, water, and carbon with the atmosphere and partly controls the atmospheric CO2 concentration. It is therefore crucial to represent correctly the carbon cycle on land in models designed to be used in Earth System Models. We present here the improvements made to the representation of the land carbon cycle by the land surface system ISBA‐CTRIP. We improved the representation of several processes using published data, and we added processes that were not represented. The new version of the model performs better than the previous one at representing the carbon fluxes and pools, when compared to a series of observation data sets. This evaluation suggests that we can use ISBA‐CTRIP to explore the changing climate and carbon cycle.
Key Points
This paper documents the updates to the biogeochemical module of the ISBA‐CTRIP land surface system for use in the CNRM‐ESM 2‐1 Earth system model
The newly represented processes are the leaching of carbon and transport of dissolved organic carbon to the ocean, fire with area burned and carbon emissions, and land cover changes
The largest improvements in the representation of net primary productivity are due to improved autotrophic respiration
The Global Carbon Project estimates that the terrestrial biosphere has absorbed about one‐third of anthropogenic CO2 emissions during the 1959–2019 period. This sink‐estimate is produced by an ...ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models and is consistent with the land uptake inferred from the residual of emissions and ocean uptake. The purpose of our study is to understand how well terrestrial biosphere models reproduce the processes that drive the terrestrial carbon sink. One challenge is to decide what level of agreement between model output and observation‐based reference data is adequate considering that reference data are prone to uncertainties. To define such a level of agreement, we compute benchmark scores that quantify the similarity between independently derived reference data sets using multiple statistical metrics. Models are considered to perform well if their model scores reach benchmark scores. Our results show that reference data can differ considerably, causing benchmark scores to be low. Model scores are often of similar magnitude as benchmark scores, implying that model performance is reasonable given how different reference data are. While model performance is encouraging, ample potential for improvements remains, including a reduction in a positive leaf area index bias, improved representations of processes that govern soil organic carbon in high latitudes, and an assessment of causes that drive the inter‐model spread of gross primary productivity in boreal regions and humid tropics. The success of future model development will increasingly depend on our capacity to reduce and account for observational uncertainties.
Plain Language Summary
Earth's natural vegetation absorbs about one‐third of CO2 emissions caused by human activities. This value is produced by a group of models rather than through direct observations. Our study assesses how well models reproduce the processes that drive the CO2 exchange between land and atmosphere using a wide range of data sets that are mainly derived from field measurements and satellite images. These reference data sets are prone to errors that are not quantified in a consistent manner. To account for such errors, we first compare different reference data sets against each other. We then compare model output against reference data and assess whether the differences are comparable to the differences among the reference data sets. We conclude that the performance of models is encouraging given how uncertain reference data are, but that ample potential for improvements remains.
Key Points
Differences between model and observations are often similar compared to differences between independently derived observation‐based data
We quantify differences between independently derived observations to disentangle model deficiencies from observational uncertainties
Future work should address biases in soil organic carbon, leaf area index, and the large spread of gross primary productivity among models
Abstract
Year-to-year variability in CO
2
fluxes can yield insight into climate-carbon cycle relationships, a fundamental yet uncertain aspect of the terrestrial carbon cycle. In this study, we use ...global observations from NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) satellite for years 2015–2019 and a geostatistical inverse model to evaluate 5 years of interannual variability (IAV) in CO
2
fluxes and its relationships with environmental drivers. OCO-2 launched in late 2014, and we specifically evaluate IAV during the time period when OCO-2 observations are available. We then compare inferences from OCO-2 with state-of-the-art process-based models (terrestrial biosphere model, TBMs). Results from OCO-2 suggest that the tropical grasslands biome (including grasslands, savanna, and agricultural lands within the tropics) makes contributions to global IAV during the 5 year study period that are comparable to tropical forests, a result that differs from a majority of TBMs. Furthermore, existing studies disagree on the environmental variables that drive IAV during this time period, and the analysis using OCO-2 suggests that both temperature and precipitation make comparable contributions. TBMs, by contrast, tend to estimate larger IAV during this time and usually estimate larger relative contributions from the extra-tropics. With that said, TBMs show little consensus on both the magnitude and the contributions of different regions to IAV. We further find that TBMs show a wide range of responses on the relationships of CO
2
fluxes with annual anomalies in temperature and precipitation, and these relationships across most of the TBMs have a larger magnitude than inferred from OCO-2. Overall, the findings of this study highlight large uncertainties in process-based estimates of IAV during recent years and provide an avenue for evaluating these processes against inferences from OCO-2.
Extreme wind blowdown events can significantly modify the structure and composition of forests, and the predicted shift in tropical cyclone regimes due to climate change could strongly impact forests ...across the tropics. In this study, we coupled an individual-based and spatially-explicit forest dynamics model (TROLL) with a mechanistic model estimating wind damage as a function of tree size, traits, and allometry (ForestGALES). We assimilated floristic trait data and climate data from a subtropical forest site in Taiwan to explore the effect of wind regimes on forest properties. We found that the average canopy height and biomass stocks decreased as wind disturbance strength increased, but biomass stocks showed a nonlinear response. Above a wind intensity threshold, both canopy height and biomass drastically decreased to near-zero, exhibiting a transition to a non-forest state. Wind intensity strongly regulated wind impact, but varying wind frequency did not cause discernible effects. The implementation of within-stand topographic heterogeneity led to weak effects on within-stand forest structure heterogeneity at the study site. In conclusion, the intensity of wind disturbances can potentially greatly impact forest structure by modifying mortality. Individual-based modeling provides a framework in which to investigate the impact of wind regimes on mortality, other factors influencing wind-induced tree mortality, as well as interaction between wind and other forms of forest disturbance and human land use legacy.