Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas
concentrations are the main driver of current and future climate change. The
integrated assessment community has quantified anthropogenic ...emissions for
the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios, each of which represents
a different future socio-economic projection and political environment.
Here, we provide the greenhouse gas concentrations for these SSP scenarios
– using the reduced-complexity climate–carbon-cycle model MAGICC7.0. We
extend historical, observationally based concentration data with SSP
concentration projections from 2015 to 2500 for 43 greenhouse gases with monthly and latitudinal resolution. CO2 concentrations by 2100 range
from 393 to 1135 ppm for the lowest (SSP1-1.9) and highest (SSP5-8.5)
emission scenarios, respectively. We also provide the concentration
extensions beyond 2100 based on assumptions regarding the trajectories of fossil
fuels and land use change emissions, net negative emissions, and the
fraction of non-CO2 emissions. By 2150, CO2 concentrations in the
lowest emission scenario are approximately 350 ppm and approximately plateau
at that level until 2500, whereas the highest fossil-fuel-driven scenario
projects CO2 concentrations of 1737 ppm and reaches concentrations
beyond 2000 ppm by 2250. We estimate that the share of CO2 in the total
radiative forcing contribution of all considered 43 long-lived greenhouse
gases increases from 66 % for the present day to roughly 68 % to 85 % by
the time of maximum forcing in the 21st century. For this estimation,
we updated simple radiative forcing parameterizations that reflect the Oslo
Line-By-Line model results. In comparison to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs), the five main SSPs
(SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) are more evenly spaced
and extend to lower 2100 radiative forcing and temperatures. Performing two
pairs of six-member historical ensembles with CESM1.2.2, we estimate the
effect on surface air temperatures of applying latitudinally and seasonally
resolved GHG concentrations. We find that the ensemble differences in the
March–April–May (MAM) season provide a regional warming in higher northern
latitudes of up to 0.4 K over the historical period, latitudinally averaged
of about 0.1 K, which we estimate to be comparable to the upper bound
(∼5 % level) of natural variability. In comparison to the
comparatively straight line of the last 2000 years, the greenhouse gas
concentrations since the onset of the industrial period and this studies'
projections over the next 100 to 500 years unequivocally depict a
“hockey-stick” upwards shape. The SSP concentration time series derived in
this study provide a harmonized set of input assumptions for long-term
climate science analysis; they also provide an indication of the wide set of
futures that societal developments and policy implementations can lead to –
ranging from multiple degrees of future warming on the one side to
approximately 1.5 ∘C warming on the other.
Research gaps in understanding flood changes at the catchment scale caused by changes in forest management, agricultural practices, artificial drainage, and terracing are identified. Potential ...strategies in addressing these gaps are proposed, such as complex systems approaches to link processes across time scales, long‐term experiments on physical‐chemical‐biological process interactions, and a focus on connectivity and patterns across spatial scales. It is suggested that these strategies will stimulate new research that coherently addresses the issues across hydrology, soil and agricultural sciences, forest engineering, forest ecology, and geomorphology.
Plain Language Summary
This commentary explores research gaps in the field of land use change impacts on floods at the catchment scale and proposes possible ways forward for addressing these gaps. Specifically the impacts of forest management, agricultural practices, artificial drainage, and terracing on flood generation at the catchment scale are explored. Potential strategies in addressing research gaps in these fields are complex systems approaches to link processes across time scales, long‐term experiments on physical‐chemical‐biological process interactions, and a focus on connectivity and patterns across spatial scales. It is suggested that these strategies will stimulate new research that coherently addresses the issues across hydrology, soil and agricultural sciences, forest engineering, forest ecology, and geomorphology.
Key Points
Land use change impacts on floods are poorly understood at the catchment scale
Numerous synergies are identified in exploring the effects of changed agricultural practices, artif. drainage, terracing, and forest cover
A cross‐disciplinary systems approach aided by long‐term field studies and a focus on flow connectivity are needed to make major advances
Between 1999 and 2009 in the United Kingdom, 82,429 men between 50 and 69 years of age received a prostate-specific antigen (PSA) test. Localized prostate cancer was diagnosed in 2664 men. Of these ...men, 1643 were enrolled in a trial to evaluate the effectiveness of treatments, with 545 randomly assigned to receive active monitoring, 553 to undergo prostatectomy, and 545 to undergo radiotherapy.
At a median follow-up of 15 years (range, 11 to 21), we compared the results in this population with respect to death from prostate cancer (the primary outcome) and death from any cause, metastases, disease progression, and initiation of long-term androgen-deprivation therapy (secondary outcomes).
Follow-up was complete for 1610 patients (98%). A risk-stratification analysis showed that more than one third of the men had intermediate or high-risk disease at diagnosis. Death from prostate cancer occurred in 45 men (2.7%): 17 (3.1%) in the active-monitoring group, 12 (2.2%) in the prostatectomy group, and 16 (2.9%) in the radiotherapy group (P = 0.53 for the overall comparison). Death from any cause occurred in 356 men (21.7%), with similar numbers in all three groups. Metastases developed in 51 men (9.4%) in the active-monitoring group, in 26 (4.7%) in the prostatectomy group, and in 27 (5.0%) in the radiotherapy group. Long-term androgen-deprivation therapy was initiated in 69 men (12.7%), 40 (7.2%), and 42 (7.7%), respectively; clinical progression occurred in 141 men (25.9%), 58 (10.5%), and 60 (11.0%), respectively. In the active-monitoring group, 133 men (24.4%) were alive without any prostate cancer treatment at the end of follow-up. No differential effects on cancer-specific mortality were noted in relation to the baseline PSA level, tumor stage or grade, or risk-stratification score. No treatment complications were reported after the 10-year analysis.
After 15 years of follow-up, prostate cancer-specific mortality was low regardless of the treatment assigned. Thus, the choice of therapy involves weighing trade-offs between benefits and harms associated with treatments for localized prostate cancer. (Funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research; ProtecT Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN20141297; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02044172.).
The angiotensin receptor-neprilysin inhibitor sacubitril-valsartan led to a reduced risk of hospitalization for heart failure or death from cardiovascular causes among patients with heart failure and ...reduced ejection fraction. The effect of angiotensin receptor-neprilysin inhibition in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction is unclear.
We randomly assigned 4822 patients with New York Heart Association (NYHA) class II to IV heart failure, ejection fraction of 45% or higher, elevated level of natriuretic peptides, and structural heart disease to receive sacubitril-valsartan (target dose, 97 mg of sacubitril with 103 mg of valsartan twice daily) or valsartan (target dose, 160 mg twice daily). The primary outcome was a composite of total hospitalizations for heart failure and death from cardiovascular causes. Primary outcome components, secondary outcomes (including NYHA class change, worsening renal function, and change in Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire KCCQ clinical summary score scale, 0 to 100, with higher scores indicating fewer symptoms and physical limitations), and safety were also assessed.
There were 894 primary events in 526 patients in the sacubitril-valsartan group and 1009 primary events in 557 patients in the valsartan group (rate ratio, 0.87; 95% confidence interval CI, 0.75 to 1.01; P = 0.06). The incidence of death from cardiovascular causes was 8.5% in the sacubitril-valsartan group and 8.9% in the valsartan group (hazard ratio, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.79 to 1.16); there were 690 and 797 total hospitalizations for heart failure, respectively (rate ratio, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.72 to 1.00). NYHA class improved in 15.0% of the patients in the sacubitril-valsartan group and in 12.6% of those in the valsartan group (odds ratio, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.13 to 1.86); renal function worsened in 1.4% and 2.7%, respectively (hazard ratio, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.33 to 0.77). The mean change in the KCCQ clinical summary score at 8 months was 1.0 point (95% CI, 0.0 to 2.1) higher in the sacubitril-valsartan group. Patients in the sacubitril-valsartan group had a higher incidence of hypotension and angioedema and a lower incidence of hyperkalemia. Among 12 prespecified subgroups, there was suggestion of heterogeneity with possible benefit with sacubitril-valsartan in patients with lower ejection fraction and in women.
Sacubitril-valsartan did not result in a significantly lower rate of total hospitalizations for heart failure and death from cardiovascular causes among patients with heart failure and an ejection fraction of 45% or higher. (Funded by Novartis; PARAGON-HF ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01920711.).
ABSTRACT
In the 12 years since Dudgeon et al. (2006) reviewed major pressures on freshwater ecosystems, the biodiversity crisis in the world's lakes, reservoirs, rivers, streams and wetlands has ...deepened. While lakes, reservoirs and rivers cover only 2.3% of the Earth's surface, these ecosystems host at least 9.5% of the Earth's described animal species. Furthermore, using the World Wide Fund for Nature's Living Planet Index, freshwater population declines (83% between 1970 and 2014) continue to outpace contemporaneous declines in marine or terrestrial systems. The Anthropocene has brought multiple new and varied threats that disproportionately impact freshwater systems. We document 12 emerging threats to freshwater biodiversity that are either entirely new since 2006 or have since intensified: (i) changing climates; (ii) e‐commerce and invasions; (iii) infectious diseases; (iv) harmful algal blooms; (v) expanding hydropower; (vi) emerging contaminants; (vii) engineered nanomaterials; (viii) microplastic pollution; (ix) light and noise; (x) freshwater salinisation; (xi) declining calcium; and (xii) cumulative stressors. Effects are evidenced for amphibians, fishes, invertebrates, microbes, plants, turtles and waterbirds, with potential for ecosystem‐level changes through bottom‐up and top‐down processes. In our highly uncertain future, the net effects of these threats raise serious concerns for freshwater ecosystems. However, we also highlight opportunities for conservation gains as a result of novel management tools (e.g. environmental flows, environmental DNA) and specific conservation‐oriented actions (e.g. dam removal, habitat protection policies, managed relocation of species) that have been met with varying levels of success. Moving forward, we advocate hybrid approaches that manage fresh waters as crucial ecosystems for human life support as well as essential hotspots of biodiversity and ecological function. Efforts to reverse global trends in freshwater degradation now depend on bridging an immense gap between the aspirations of conservation biologists and the accelerating rate of species endangerment.
Coding variants in the apolipoprotein L1 gene (APOL1) are strongly associated with nephropathy in African Americans (AAs). The effect of transplanting kidneys from AA donors with two APOL1 ...nephropathy risk variants is unknown. APOL1 risk variants were genotyped in 106 AA deceased organ donors and graft survival assessed in 136 resultant kidney transplants. Cox‐proportional hazard models tested for association between time to graft failure and donor APOL1 genotypes. The mean follow‐up was 26.4 ± 21.8 months. Twenty‐two of 136 transplanted kidneys (16%) were from donors with two APOL1 nephropathy risk variants. Twenty‐five grafts failed; eight (32%) had two APOL1 risk variants. A multivariate model accounting for donor APOL1 genotype, overall African ancestry, expanded criteria donation, recipient age and gender, HLA mismatch, CIT and PRA revealed that graft survival was significantly shorter in donor kidneys with two APOL1 risk variants (hazard ratio HR 3.84; p = 0.008) and higher HLA mismatch (HR 1.52; p = 0.03), but not for overall African ancestry excluding APOL1. Kidneys from AA deceased donors harboring two APOL1 risk variants failed more rapidly after renal transplantation than those with zero or one risk variants. If replicated, APOL1 genotyping could improve the donor selection process and maximize long‐term renal allograft survival.
Renal allograft survival was shorter in patients receiving deceased donor kidneys from African Americans with two, compared to zero or one, APOL1 nephropathy risk variants.
The evolution of ocean temperature measurement systems is presented with a focus on the development and accuracy of two critical devices in use today (expendable bathythermographs and ...conductivity‐temperature‐depth instruments used on Argo floats). A detailed discussion of the accuracy of these devices and a projection of the future of ocean temperature measurements are provided. The accuracy of ocean temperature measurements is discussed in detail in the context of ocean heat content, Earth's energy imbalance, and thermosteric sea level rise. Up‐to‐date estimates are provided for these three important quantities. The total energy imbalance at the top of atmosphere is best assessed by taking an inventory of changes in energy storage. The main storage is in the ocean, the latest values of which are presented. Furthermore, despite differences in measurement methods and analysis techniques, multiple studies show that there has been a multidecadal increase in the heat content of both the upper and deep ocean regions, which reflects the impact of anthropogenic warming. With respect to sea level rise, mutually reinforcing information from tide gauges and radar altimetry shows that presently, sea level is rising at approximately 3 mm yr−1 with contributions from both thermal expansion and mass accumulation from ice melt. The latest data for thermal expansion sea level rise are included here and analyzed.
Key Points
Oceanographic techniques and analysis have improved over many decades
These improvements allow more accurate Earth‐energy balance estimates
Understanding of ocean heat content and sea‐level rise has also increased
We present the first wide area (19 deg2), deep (≈120–150 μJy beam−1), high-resolution (5.6 × 7.4 arcsec) LOFAR High Band Antenna image of the Boötes field made at 130–169 MHz. This image is at least ...an order of magnitude deeper and 3–5 times higher in angular resolution than previously achieved for this field at low frequencies. The observations and data reduction, which includes full direction-dependent calibration, are described here. We present a radio source catalogue containing 6 276 sources detected over an area of 19 deg2, with a peak flux density threshold of 5σ. As the first thorough test of the facet calibration strategy, introduced by van Weeren et al., we investigate the flux and positional accuracy of the catalogue. We present differential source counts that reach an order of magnitude deeper in flux density than previously achieved at these low frequencies, and show flattening at 150-MHz flux densities below 10 mJy associated with the rise of the low flux density star-forming galaxies and radio-quiet AGN.
A number of new measurement methods for ice nucleating particles (INPs) have been introduced in recent years, and it is important to address how these methods compare. Laboratory comparisons of ...instruments sampling major INP types are common, but few comparisons have occurred for ambient aerosol measurements exploring the utility, consistency and complementarity of different methods to cover the large dynamic range of INP concentrations that exists in the atmosphere. In this study, we assess the comparability of four offline immersion freezing measurement methods (Colorado State University ice spectrometer, IS; North Carolina State University cold stage, CS; National Institute for Polar Research Cryogenic Refrigerator Applied to Freezing Test, CRAFT; University of British Columbia micro-orifice uniform deposit impactor–droplet freezing technique, MOUDI-DFT) and an online method (continuous flow diffusion chamber, CFDC) used in a manner deemed to promote/maximize immersion freezing, for the detection of INPs in ambient aerosols at different locations and in different sampling scenarios. We also investigated the comparability of different aerosol collection methods used with offline immersion freezing instruments. Excellent agreement between all methods could be obtained for several cases of co-sampling with perfect temporal overlap. Even for sampling periods that were not fully equivalent, the deviations between atmospheric INP number concentrations measured with different methods were mostly less than 1 order of magnitude. In some cases, however, the deviations were larger and not explicable without sampling and measurement artifacts. Overall, the immersion freezing methods seem to effectively capture INPs that activate as single particles in the modestly supercooled temperature regime (> −20 °C), although more comparisons are needed in this temperature regime that is difficult to access with online methods. Relative to the CFDC method, three immersion freezing methods that disperse particles into a bulk liquid (IS, CS, CRAFT) exhibit a positive bias in measured INP number concentrations below −20 °C, increasing with decreasing temperature. This bias was present but much less pronounced for a method that condenses separate water droplets onto limited numbers of particles prior to cooling and freezing (MOUDI-DFT). Potential reasons for the observed differences are discussed, and further investigations proposed to elucidate the role of all factors involved.
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