As the rate and magnitude of climate change accelerate, understanding the consequences becomes increasingly important. Species distribution models (SDMs) based on current ecological niche constraints ...are used to project future species distributions. These models contain assumptions that add to the uncertainty in model projections stemming from the structure of the models, the algorithms used to translate niche associations into distributional probabilities, the quality and quantity of data, and mismatches between the scales of modeling and data. We illustrate the application of SDMs using two climate models and two distributional algorithms, together with information on distributional shifts in vegetation types, to project fine-scale future distributions of 60 California landbird species. Most species are projected to decrease in distribution by 2070. Changes in total species richness vary over the state, with large losses of species in some "hotspots" of vulnerability. Differences in distributional shifts among species will change species co-occurrences, creating spatial variation in similarities between current and future assemblages. We use these analyses to consider how assumptions can be addressed and uncertainties reduced. SDMs can provide a useful way to incorporate future conditions into conservation and management practices and decisions, but the uncertainties of model projections must be balanced with the risks of taking the wrong actions or the costs of inaction. Doing this will require that the sources and magnitudes of uncertainty are documented, and that conservationists and resource managers be willing to act despite the uncertainties. The alternative, of ignoring the future, is not an option.
Abstract
Group-size variation is common in colonially breeding species, including seabirds, whose breeding colonies can vary in size by several orders of magnitude. Seabirds are some of the most ...threatened marine taxa and understanding the drivers of colony size variation is more important than ever. Reproductive success is an important demographic parameter that can impact colony size, and it varies in association with a number of factors, including nesting habitat quality. Within colonies, seabirds often aggregate into distinct groups or subcolonies that may vary in quality. We used data from two colonies of Adélie penguins 73 km apart on Ross Island, Antarctica, one large and one small to investigate (1) How subcolony habitat characteristics influence reproductive success and (2) How these relationships differ at a small (Cape Royds) and large (Cape Crozier) colony with different terrain characteristics. Subcolonies were characterized using terrain attributes (elevation, slope aspect, slope steepness, wind shelter, flow accumulation), as well group characteristics (area/size, perimeter-to-area ratio, and proximity to nest predators). Reproductive success was higher and less variable at the larger colony while subcolony characteristics explained more of the variance in reproductive success at the small colony. The most important variable influencing subcolony quality at both colonies was perimeter-to-area ratio, likely reflecting the importance of nest predation by south polar skuas along subcolony edges. The small colony contained a higher proportion of edge nests thus higher potential impact from skua nest predation. Stochastic environmental events may facilitate smaller colonies becoming “trapped” by nest predation: a rapid decline in the number of breeding individuals may increase the proportion of edge nests, leading to higher relative nest predation and hindering population recovery. Several terrain covariates were retained in the final models but which variables, the shapes of the relationships, and importance varied between colonies.
► We document the environmental niches of 9 of 13 mesopredator species in the Ross Sea. ► Species had high environmental niche overlap, but low overlap in horizontal space. ► We ranked every 5km grid ...cell in the region in terms of conservation priority. ► Results are being used to evaluate the conservation value of proposed MPAs.
Designation of an effective marine protected area (MPA) requires substantial knowledge of the spatial use of the region by key species, particularly those of high mobility. Within the Ross Sea, Antarctica, the least altered marine ecosystem on Earth, unusually large and closely interacting populations of several marine bird and mammal species co-exist. Understanding how that is possible is important to maintaining the ecological integrity of the system, the major goal in designating the Ross Sea as an MPA. We report analyses of niche occupation, two-dimensional habitat use, and overlap for the majority (9) of mesopredator species in the Ross Sea considering three components: (1) diet, (2) vertical distribution and (3) horizontal distribution. For (1) and (2) we used information in the literature; for (3) we used maximum entropy modeling to project species’ distributions from occurrence data from several ocean cruises and satellite telemetry, correlated with six environmental variables. Results identified and ranked areas of importance in a conservation prioritization framework. While diet overlapped intensively, some spatial partitioning existed in the vertical dimension (diving depth). Horizontal partitioning, however, was the key structuring factor, defined by three general patterns of environmental suitability: (1) continental shelf break, (2) shelf and slope, and (3) marginal ice zone of the pack ice surrounding the Ross Sea post-polynya. In aggregate, the nine mesopredators used the entire continental shelf and slope, allowing the large populations of these species to co-exist. Conservation prioritization analyses identified the outer shelf and slope and the deeper troughs in the Ross Sea shelf to be most important. Our results substantially improve understanding of these species’ niche occupation and imply that a piecemeal approach to MPA designation in this system is not likely to be successful.
Tidal marshes will be threatened by increasing rates of sea-level rise (SLR) over the next century. Managers seek guidance on whether existing and restored marshes will be resilient under a range of ...potential future conditions, and on prioritizing marsh restoration and conservation activities.
Building upon established models, we developed a hybrid approach that involves a mechanistic treatment of marsh accretion dynamics and incorporates spatial variation at a scale relevant for conservation and restoration decision-making. We applied this model to San Francisco Bay, using best-available elevation data and estimates of sediment supply and organic matter accumulation developed for 15 Bay subregions. Accretion models were run over 100 years for 70 combinations of starting elevation, mineral sediment, organic matter, and SLR assumptions. Results were applied spatially to evaluate eight Bay-wide climate change scenarios.
Model results indicated that under a high rate of SLR (1.65 m/century), short-term restoration of diked subtidal baylands to mid marsh elevations (-0.2 m MHHW) could be achieved over the next century with sediment concentrations greater than 200 mg/L. However, suspended sediment concentrations greater than 300 mg/L would be required for 100-year mid marsh sustainability (i.e., no elevation loss). Organic matter accumulation had minimal impacts on this threshold. Bay-wide projections of marsh habitat area varied substantially, depending primarily on SLR and sediment assumptions. Across all scenarios, however, the model projected a shift in the mix of intertidal habitats, with a loss of high marsh and gains in low marsh and mudflats.
Results suggest a bleak prognosis for long-term natural tidal marsh sustainability under a high-SLR scenario. To minimize marsh loss, we recommend conserving adjacent uplands for marsh migration, redistributing dredged sediment to raise elevations, and concentrating restoration efforts in sediment-rich areas. To assist land managers, we developed a web-based decision support tool (www.prbo.org/sfbayslr).
By facilitating independent shifts in species' distributions, climate disruption may result in the rapid development of novel species assemblages that challenge the capacity of species to co-exist ...and adapt. We used a multivariate approach borrowed from paleoecology to quantify the potential change in California terrestrial breeding bird communities based on current and future species-distribution models for 60 focal species. Projections of future no-analog communities based on two climate models and two species-distribution-model algorithms indicate that by 2070 over half of California could be occupied by novel assemblages of bird species, implying the potential for dramatic community reshuffling and altered patterns of species interactions. The expected percentage of no-analog bird communities was dependent on the community scale examined, but consistent geographic patterns indicated several locations that are particularly likely to host novel bird communities in the future. These no-analog areas did not always coincide with areas of greatest projected species turnover. Efforts to conserve and manage biodiversity could be substantially improved by considering not just future changes in the distribution of individual species, but including the potential for unprecedented changes in community composition and unanticipated consequences of novel species assemblages.
Between 2013 and 2015, a large part of the western United States, including the Central Valley of California, sustained an extreme drought. The Central Valley is recognized as a region of hemispheric ...importance for waterbirds, which use flooded agriculture and wetlands as habitat. Thus, the impact of drought on the distribution of surface water needed to be assessed to understand the effects on waterbird habitat availability.
We used remote sensing data to quantify the impact of the recent extreme drought on the timing and extent of waterbird habitat during the non-breeding season (July-May) by examining open water in agriculture (rice, corn, and other crops) and managed wetlands across the Central Valley. We assessed the influence of habitat incentive programs, particularly The Nature Conservancy's BirdReturns and The Natural Resources Conservation Service's Waterbird Habitat Enhancement Program (WHEP), at offsetting habitat loss related to drought.
Overall, we found statistically significant declines in open water in post-harvest agriculture (45-80% declines) and in managed wetlands (39-60% declines) during the 2013-2015 drought compared to non-drought years during the period of 2000-2011. Crops associated with the San Joaquin Basin, specifically corn, as well as wetlands in that part of the Central Valley exhibited larger reductions in open water than rice and wetlands in the Sacramento Valley. Semi-permanent wetlands on protected lands had significantly lower (39-49%) open water in the drought years than those on non-protected lands while seasonal wetlands on protected lands had higher amounts of open water. A large fraction of the daily open water in rice during certain times of the year, particularly in the fall for BirdReturns (61%) and the winter for WHEP (100%), may have been provided through incentive programs which underscores the contribution of these programs. However, further assessment is needed to know how much the incentive programs directly offset the impact of drought in post-harvest rice by influencing water management or simply supplemented funding for activities that might have been done regardless.
Our landscape analysis documents the significant impacts of the recent extreme drought on freshwater wetland habitats in the Central Valley, the benefits of incentive programs, and the value of using satellite data to track surface water and waterbird habitats. More research is needed to understand subsequent impacts on the freshwater dependent species that rely on these systems and how incentive programs can most strategically support vulnerable species during future extreme drought.
Understanding the causes of disease in Antarctic wildlife is crucial, as many of these species are already threatened by environmental changes brought about by climate change. In recent years, ...Antarctic penguins have been showing signs of an unknown pathology: a feather disorder characterised by missing feathers, resulting in exposed skin. During the 2018-2019 austral summer breeding season at Cape Crozier colony on Ross Island, Antarctica, we observed for the first time an Adélie penguin chick missing down over most of its body. A guano sample was collected from the nest of the featherless chick, and using high-throughput sequencing, we identified a novel circovirus. Using abutting primers, we amplified the full genome, which we cloned and Sanger-sequenced to determine the complete genome of the circovirus. The Adélie penguin guano-associated circovirus genome shares <67% genome-wide nucleotide identity with other circoviruses, representing a new species of circovirus; therefore, we named it penguin circovirus (PenCV). Using the same primer pair, we screened 25 previously collected cloacal swabs taken at Cape Crozier from known-age adult Adélie penguins during the 2014-2015 season, displaying no clinical signs of feather-loss disorder. Three of the 25 samples (12%) were positive for a PenCV, whose genome shared >99% pairwise identity with the one identified in 2018-2019. This is the first report of a circovirus associated with a penguin species. This circovirus could be an etiological agent of the feather-loss disorder in Antarctic penguins.
The population size of Antarctic minke whales
Balaenoptera bonaerensis
has been changing simultaneously with profound changes in the physics, i.e., mesopredator habitat features, of the Southern ...Ocean. Although the two trends may not be related, distinguishing among the factors responsible requires a better understanding of minke whale habitat preferences. For the first time at a large geographic scale, i.e., between 140° E and 35° W, we use data not constrained by vessels needing to avoid sea ice to model the habitat affinities of this pagophilic mesopredator. Using Maxent, we modeled minke whale proximity to the Antarctic Shelf Break Front (ASBF) and the southern boundary of Antarctic Circumpolar Current (sbACC), as well as association with sea ice, given that global climate change is altering the positions or intensity of these features. We also included water depth and chlorophyll (proxy for productivity) as variables. Minke whale presence data were gathered using strip and line census on 55 cruises on board icebreakers during late spring and summer, 1976–2005. The most important variable was distance to ASBF, followed by water depth and sea-ice concentration. That is, found principally in waters south of the sbACC during summer, minke whales were most abundant near the outer edge of the continental shelf (shallow depth), including areas heavily covered by sea ice. We propose that as the sbACC moves south and sea ice disappears, as projected by global climate models, minke whale habitat will shrink, and likely intra- and inter-specific competition will increase.
Abstract Seasonal migration, driven by shifts in annual climate cycles and resources, is a key part of the life history and ecology of species across taxonomic groups. By influencing the amount of ...energy needed to move, external forces such as wind and ocean currents are often key drivers of migratory pathways exposing individuals to varying resources, environmental conditions, and competition pressures impacting individual fitness and population dynamics. Although wildlife movements in connection with wind and ocean currents are relatively well understood, movements within sea‐ice fields have been much less studied, despite sea ice being an integral part of polar ecology. Adélie penguins ( Pygoscelis adeliae ) in the southern Ross Sea, Antarctica, currently exist at the southernmost edge of their range and undergo the longest (~12,000 km) winter migration known for the species. Within and north of the Ross Sea, the Ross Gyre drives ocean circulation and the large‐scale movement of sea ice. We used remotely sensed sea‐ice movement data together with geolocation‐based penguin movement data to test the hypothesis that penguins use gyre‐driven sea‐ice movement to aid their migration. We found that penguins traveled greater distances when their movement vectors were aligned with those of sea ice (i.e., ice support) and the amount of ice support received depended on which route a penguin took. We also found that birds that took an eastern route traveled significantly further north in two of the 3 years we examined, coinciding with higher velocities of sea ice in those years. We compare our findings to patterns observed in migrating species that utilize air or water currents for their travel and with other studies showing the importance of ocean/sea‐ice circulation patterns to wildlife movement and life history patterns within the Ross Sea. Changes in sea ice may have consequences not only for energy expenditure but, by altering migration and movement pathways, to the ecological interactions that exist in this region.
Unlike in many polar regions, the spatial extent and duration of the sea ice season have increased in the Ross Sea sector of the Southern Ocean during the satellite era. Simultaneously, populations ...of Adélie penguins, a sea ice obligate, have been stable or increasing in the region. Relationships between Adélie penguin population growth and sea ice concentration (SIC) are complex, with sea ice driving different, sometimes contrasting, demographic patterns. Adélie penguins undergo a complete molt annually, replacing all their feathers while fasting shortly after the breeding season. Unlike most penguin species, a majority of Adélies are thought to molt on sea ice, away from the breeding colonies, which makes this period particularly difficult to study. Here, we evaluate the hypothesis that persistent areas of high SIC provide an important molting habitat for Adélie penguins. We analyzed data from geolocating dive recorders deployed year-round on 195 adult penguins at two colonies in the Ross Sea from 2017 to 2019. We identified molt by detecting extended gaps in postbreeding diving activity and used associated locations to define two key molting areas. Remotely sensed data indicated that SIC during molt was anomalously low during the study and has declined in the primary molt area since 1980. Further, annual return rates of penguins to breeding colonies were positively correlated with SIC in the molt areas over 20 y. Together these results suggest that sea ice conditions during Adélie penguin molt may represent a previously underappreciated annual bottleneck for adult survival.
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