In the absence of a systematic approach to epidemiological modeling in Slovenia, various isolated mathematical epidemiological models emerged shortly after the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic. We ...present an epidemiological model adapted to the COVID-19 situation in Slovenia. The standard SEIR model was extended to distinguish between age groups, symptomatic or asymptomatic disease progression, and vaccinated or unvaccinated populations. Evaluation of the model forecasts for 2021 showed the expected behavior of epidemiological modeling: our model adequately predicts the situation up to 4 weeks in advance; the changes in epidemiologic dynamics due to the emergence of a new viral variant in the population or the introduction of new interventions cannot be predicted by the model, but when the new situation is incorporated into the model, the forecasts are again reliable. Comparison with ensemble forecasts for 2022 within the European Covid-19 Forecast Hub showed better performance of our model, which can be explained by a model architecture better adapted to the situation in Slovenia, in particular a refined structure for vaccination, and better parameter tuning enabled by the more comprehensive data for Slovenia. Our model proved to be flexible, agile, and, despite the limitations of its compartmental structure, heterogeneous enough to provide reasonable and prompt short-term forecasts and possible scenarios for various public health strategies. The model has been fully operational on a daily basis since April 2020, served as one of the models for decision-making during the COVID-19 epidemic in Slovenia, and is part of the European Covid-19 Forecast Hub.
Mathematical modelling can be useful for predicting how infectious diseases progress, enabling us to show the likely outcome of an epidemic and help inform public health interventions. Different ...modelling techniques have been used to predict and simulate the spread of COVID-19, but they have not always been useful for epidemiologists and decision-makers. To improve the reliability of the modelling results, it is very important to critically evaluate the data used and to check whether or not due regard has been paid to the different ways in which the disease spreads through the population. As building an epidemiological model that is reliable enough and suits the current epidemiological situation within a country or region, certain criteria must be met in the modelling process. It might be necessary to use a combination of two or more different types of models in order to cover all aspects of epidemic modelling. If we want epidemiological models to be a useful tool in combating the epidemic, we need to engage experts from epidemiology, data science and statistics.
Deep sternal wound infection (DSWI) following open heart surgery is associated with excessive morbidity and mortality. Contemporary DSWI risk prediction models aim at identifying high-risk patients ...with varying complexity and performance characteristics. We aimed to optimize the DSWI risk factor set and to identify additional risk factors for early postoperative detection of patients prone to DSWI.
Single-centre retrospective analysis of patients with isolated multivessel coronary artery disease undergoing myocardial revascularization at Paracelsus Medical University Nuremberg between 2007 and 2022 was performed to identify risk factors for DSWI. Three data sets were created to examine preoperative, intraoperative, and early postoperative parameters, constituting the "Baseline", the "Improved Baseline" and the "Extended" models. The "Extended" data set included risk factors that had not been analysed before. Univariable and stepwise forward multiple logistic regression analyses were performed for each respective set of variables.
From 5221 patients, 179 (3.4%) developed DSWI. The "Extended" model performed best, with the area under the curve (AUC) of 0.80, 95%-CI: 0.76, 0.83. Pleural effusion requiring intervention, postoperative delirium, preoperative hospital stay > 24 h, and the use of fibrin sealant were new independent predictors of DSWI in addition to age, Diabetes Mellitus on insulin, Body Mass Index, peripheral artery disease, mediastinal re-exploration, bilateral internal mammary harvesting, acute kidney injury and blood transfusions.
The "Extended" regression model with the short-term postoperative complications significantly improved DSWI risk discrimination after surgical revascularization. Short preoperative stay, prevention of postoperative delirium, protocols reducing the need for evacuation of effusion and restrictive use of fibrin sealant for sternal closure facilitate DSWI reduction.
The registered retrospective study was registered at the study centre and approved by the Institutional Review Board of Paracelsus Medical University Nuremberg (IRB-2019-005).
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