Power to the people Kander, Astrid; Malanima, Paolo; Warde, Paul
2014., 20140105, 2014, 2014-01-05, 20130101, 2013, Letnik:
46
eBook, Book
Power to the Peopleexamines the varied but interconnected relationships between energy consumption and economic development in Europe over the last five centuries. It describes how the traditional ...energy economy of medieval and early modern Europe was marked by stable or falling per capita energy consumption, and how the First Industrial Revolution in the eighteenth century--fueled by coal and steam engines--redrew the economic, social, and geopolitical map of Europe and the world. The Second Industrial Revolution continued this energy expansion and social transformation through the use of oil and electricity, but after 1970 Europe entered a new stage in which energy consumption has stabilized. This book challenges the view that the outsourcing of heavy industry overseas is the cause, arguing that a Third Industrial Revolution driven by new information and communication technologies has played a major stabilizing role.
Power to the Peopleoffers new perspectives on the challenges posed today by climate change and peak oil, demonstrating that although the path of modern economic development has vastly increased our energy use, it has not been a story of ever-rising and continuous consumption. The book sheds light on the often lengthy and complex changes needed for new energy systems to emerge, the role of energy resources in economic growth, and the importance of energy efficiency in promoting growth and reducing future energy demand.
•We investigate carbon flows in international trade, adjusting for differences in production technology between countries.•The magnitude of global carbon outsourcing is shown to be much smaller than ...prior research has suggested.•Contrary to prior studies, we find no systematic and consistent emission outsourcing from developed to developing countries.•Some developed countries, e.g. Anglophone, were outsourcing emissions while others, e.g. the Nordics, did the opposite.•China emerges as a major emission insourcer, whereas other large developing countries show a completely different pattern.
Increasing global production fragmentation allows for outsourcing of emissions, which may undermine national climate policies. Researchers focusing on the gap between consumption-based and production-based emissions have concluded that developed countries are systematically outsourcing emissions to developing countries. However, asymmetries in emissions embodied in trade may emerge due to differences in carbon intensity of energy and production between different countries, and need not be evidence of outsourcing. This study investigates if previous results concerning emission in –and outsourcing of developed and developing countries hold when emission flows are adjusted for technological differences. Two striking results are demonstrated: first, the magnitude of outsourcing is significantly smaller than previous studies have suggested, and, second, there is no clear divide between developing and developed countries. Large developed Anglophone countries (US, UK, Canada and Australia) were increasingly outsourcing emissions between 1995 and 2009 by shifting toward more carbon-intensive goods in their imports and less carbon intensive goods in exports, whereas other developed countries (i.e. the Nordics, advanced Asia and even the aggregate EU-27) maintained a positive emission trade balance. Among major developing countries, China is a major insourcer of emissions, while other emerging economies show no consistent pattern (e.g. India, Turkey and Brazil) or marginal outsourcing (e.g. Indonesia and Mexico). These results contribute to a more nuanced understanding of the impact of international trade on global carbon emissions.
This paper introduces a new concept of comparative carbon advantage as a potential climate mitigation tool. According to the concept, welfare gains in terms of reduced global CO2 emissions can be ...achieved by exploiting cross-country sectoral differences in carbon intensity and decarbonized electricity system. The paper empirically tests the concept by utilizing annual data of Sweden between 1995 and 2008. Overall, the results show that Sweden contributed nearly 590 million tons of potential CO2 emissions savings through its exports by having an efficient and low-carbon production and electricity system. This total amount of 590 million tons of CO2 emissions relates to the total savings made if the same amount and composition of Swedish exports was produced using the world average technology. Furthermore, the contribution of Sweden’s low carbon electricity generation was over 34% of the total savings, of which some 20% were direct exports of electricity and 80% was electricity embodied in exported products. This research provides a critical understanding of the impact of efficient production and low carbon electricity in generating relative comparative carbon advantage—a policy relevant aspect for the increasingly globalized, and carbon-constrained, world.
This study utilizes recently published environmental extensions to the World Input–Output Database (WIOD) to compare production-based, consumption-based and technology-adjusted carbon emissions for ...44 countries and country groups for the period 2000 to 2014. Results show some significant shifts in global emission trends compared to similar studies of the period before 2009. For 20 European Union (EU) countries and the US, emissions decreased over the period regardless of measure, and the same was true for the EU. Since GDP grew in 18 of these countries, the results provide unambiguous evidence for absolute, albeit modest, decoupling of economic growth from carbon emissions. The large increase in global emissions that nevertheless occurred during the period was driven almost entirely by increasing consumption in China and developing countries.
The risk of carbon leakage in global climate agreements Nielsen, Tobias; Baumert, Nicolai; Kander, Astrid ...
International environmental agreements : politics, law and economics,
06/2021, Letnik:
21, Številka:
2
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Although climate change and international trade are interdependent, policy-makers often address the two topics separately. This may inhibit progress at the intersection of climate change and trade ...and could present a serious constraint for global climate action. One key risk is carbon leakage through emission outsourcing, i.e. reductions in emissions in countries with rigorous climate policies being offset by increased emissions in countries with less stringent policies. We first analyze the Paris Agreement’s nationally determined contributions (NDC) and investigate how carbon leakage is addressed. We find that the risk of carbon leakage is insufficiently accounted for in these documents. Then, we apply a novel quantitative approach (Jiborn et al.,
2018
; Baumert et al.,
2019
) to analyze trends in carbon outsourcing related to a previous international climate regime—the Kyoto Protocol—in order to assess whether reported emission reductions were offset by carbon outsourcing in the past. Our results for 2000–2014 show a more nuanced picture of carbon leakage during the Kyoto Protocol than previous studies have reported. Carbon outsourcing from developed to developing countries was dominated by the USA outsourcing to China, while the evidence for other developed countries was mixed. Against conventional wisdom, we find that, in general, countries that stayed committed to their Kyoto Protocol emission targets were either only minor carbon outsourcers or actually even insourcers—although the trend was slightly negative—indicating that binding emissions targets do not necessarily lead to carbon outsourcing. We argue that multiple carbon monitoring approaches are needed to reduce the risk of carbon leakage.
A service transition is supposed to lead to the decline of energy intensity (energy/GDP). We argue that this interpretation is overly optimistic because the shift to a service economy is somewhat of ...an illusion in terms of real production. Several recent studies of structural effects on energy intensity have made the error of using sector shares in current prices, combined with GDP in constant prices, which is inconsistent and ignores the different behaviour of prices across sectors. We use the more correct method of sector shares in constant prices, and make an attempt to single out the effect from the real service transition by using two complementary methods: shift share analyses in current and constant prices, and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) for 10 developed and 3 emerging economies.
A service transition is rather modest in real terms. The major driver of the decline in energy intensity rests within the manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, the transition to a service sector had a small downward impact on energy intensity in 7 of the developed countries (and no impact in the others). For emerging economies like Brazil, Mexico and India, it is the residential sector that drives energy intensity down because of the declining share of this sector as the formal economy grows, and as a consequence of switching to more efficient fuels.
This paper argues that there is reason to be skeptical about the idea that the transition to a service economy will bring about dematerialization of production and consequent environmental ...improvement. This is because the shift to a service economy is an illusion in terms of real production, but is instead generated by the fall in the price of manufacturing goods relative to services, which is in turn caused by more rapid productivity growth in manufacturing than in services. This argument relies on the insights Baumol provided on the nature of the service economy and uses Swedish long-term data on relative sectoral development as an empirical illustration. On the other hand, the paper argues that there is reason to be cautiously optimistic that structural change may bring about a greening of growth, namely the changes in growth patterns sometimes labeled the third industrial revolution, which is connected to the emergence of microelectronics. Swedish CO
2 emissions show a decline after 1970, which is mainly explained by a politically driven change in the mix of energy carriers, but is also related to the stabilization of energy consumption. This energy stabilization was caused by slow growth of the economy in conjunction with substantial declines in energy intensity within industrial sectors and an absence of relative growth of the heavy sectors, a growth that had marked the economy between 1870 and 1970. Microelectronics have contributed to permanently transforming the Swedish industrial sector in a lighter direction, reducing energy losses in heavy industries and stabilizing household energy consumption. So it appears as if there may be some environmental gains from this development that was initiated in the 1970s, but not from relatively more production in the service sector.
► We examine the R&D-to-growth paradox in Sweden over time and which sectors drive it. ► We analyse all sectors in the Swedish economy between 1985 and 2001. ► There is clear evidence that the ...paradox occurs only in fast-growing sectors. ► This is consistent with a notion of diminishing marginal returns to R&D investment. ► Our results turn the Swedish paradox upside down.
Several notions of a R&D paradox can be found in the literature. In the Swedish Paradox version, the emphasis is normally on high and growing levels of business R&D connected to comparatively low GDP growth rates. This paper examines whether this pattern is consistent over time and, more importantly, which sectors drive the aggregate patterns. Based on an investigation of the entire Swedish economy 1985–2001, there is clear evidence that the paradox occurs only in fast-growing manufacturing and service sectors. Fast-growing sectors show an increasing gap between R&D and value-added growth, while the slow-growing sectors do not. This paradox is not interpreted as a sign of failure of the national innovation system, as the largest gap would then be for the slow-growing sectors, failing to transform R&D to economic growth. The gap between R&D and GDP is consistent with the idea of diminishing marginal returns to R&D investment in high-investing sectors. The evidence does not rule out, however, that rendering the innovation system more effective could yield better outcomes. As the findings of a gap are quite consistent over time, it seems fair to conclude that businesses have good reasons for their high R&D investments, despite not being on par with their production growth.
This article examines whether there exists any causal relationship between foreign trade and declining pollution in developed countries. In other words, do developed countries outsource their ...problems to less developed countries rather than solve them? The case study is the Swedish economy and the two environmental indicators employed are energy consumption and CO
2 emissions. No causal relationships are found, since Sweden has long been a net exporter of embodied energy and CO
2 and continues to be so after 1970, when energy consumption stabilizes and CO
2 emissions decline. In addition, the ratios of net exported energy and CO
2 to total consumption remain stable, which means there were no effects on the energy intensity or CO
2 intensity either. These results suggest that internal forces, like efficiency improvements, changed consumption patterns and transformation of the energy system, have been crucial for relative environmental improvement in Sweden, while foreign trade has played no role.
On the European aggregate level there is an inverted-U curve for long-term energy intensity. In the 19th century aggregate European energy intensity rose, followed by a declining trend during the ...20th century. This article discusses the possible explanations for the declining trend during the 20th century and explores the role of energy quality as expressed in energy prices. For the first time a complete set of national energy retail prices covering two centuries has been constructed and used for Britain, while the energy price data previously available for Sweden until 2000 has been updated to 2009. This allows us to explore the role of energy quality in shaping long-term energy intensity. We find no relation between energy quality and energy intensity in the 19th century, while energy quality may have stimulated the declining energy intensity in Europe over the 20th century, but is not the sole or even main reason for the decline. Rather, increased economic efficiency in the use of energy services seems to have been the main driver for the decline after 1970, presumably driven by the information and communication technology.
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