The global aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ was used to investigate changes in the aerosol burden and aerosol radiative effects in the coming decades. Four different emissions scenarios were ...applied for 2030 (two of them applied also for 2020) and the results were compared against the reference year 2005. Two of the scenarios are based on current legislation reductions: one shows the maximum potential of reductions that can be achieved by technical measures, and the other is targeted to short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs). We have analyzed the results in terms of global means and additionally focused on eight subregions. Based on our results, aerosol burdens show an overall decreasing trend as they basically follow the changes in primary and precursor emissions. However, in some locations, such as India, the burdens could increase significantly. The declining emissions have an impact on the clear-sky direct aerosol effect (DRE), i.e. the cooling effect. The DRE could decrease globally 0.06-0.4 W m-2 by 2030 with some regional increases, for example, over India (up to 0.84 W m-2). The global changes in the DRE depend on the scenario and are smallest in the targeted SLCF simulation. The aerosol indirect radiative effect could decline 0.25-0.82 W m-2 by 2030. This decrease takes place mostly over the oceans, whereas the DRE changes are greatest over the continents. Our results show that targeted emission reduction measures can be a much better choice for the climate than overall high reductions globally. Our simulations also suggest that more than half of the near-future forcing change is due to the radiative effects associated with aerosol-cloud interactions.
The emission-exposure and exposure-response (toxicity) relationships are different for different emission source categories of anthropogenic primary fine particulate matter (PM
2.5). These variations ...have a potentially crucial importance in the integrated assessment, when determining cost-effective abatement strategies. We studied the importance of these variations by conducting a sensitivity analysis for an integrated assessment model. The model was developed to estimate the adverse health effects to the Finnish population attributable to primary PM
2.5 emissions from the whole of Europe. The primary PM
2.5 emissions in the whole of Europe and in more detail in Finland were evaluated using the inventory of the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) and the Finnish Regional Emission Scenario model (FRES), respectively. The emission-exposure relationships for different primary PM
2.5 emission source categories in Finland have been previously evaluated and these values incorporated as intake fractions into the integrated assessment model. The primary PM
2.5 exposure-response functions and toxicity differences for the pollution originating from different source categories were estimated in an expert elicitation study performed by six European experts on air pollution health effects. The primary PM
2.5 emissions from Finnish and other European sources were estimated for the population of Finland in 2000 to be responsible for 209 (mean, 95% confidence interval 6–739) and 357 (mean, 95% CI 8–1482) premature deaths, respectively. The inclusion of emission-exposure and toxicity variation into the model increased the predicted relative importance of traffic related primary PM
2.5 emissions and correspondingly, decreased the predicted relative importance of other emission source categories. We conclude that the variations of emission-exposure relationship and toxicity between various source categories had significant impacts for the assessment on premature deaths caused by primary PM
2.5.
Residential wood combustion (RWC) is an important contributor to air quality in numerous regions worldwide. This study is the first extensive evaluation of the influence of RWC on ambient air quality ...in several Nordic cities. We have analysed the emissions and concentrations of PM2.5 in cities within four Nordic countries: in the metropolitan areas of Copenhagen, Oslo, and Helsinki and in the city of Umeå. We have evaluated the emissions for the relevant urban source categories and modelled atmospheric dispersion on regional and urban scales. The emission inventories for RWC were based on local surveys, the amount of wood combusted, combustion technologies and other relevant factors. The accuracy of the predicted concentrations was evaluated based on urban concentration measurements. The predicted annual average concentrations ranged spatially from 4 to 7 µgm-3 (2011), from 6 to 10 µgm-3 (2013), from 4 to more than 13 µgm-3 (2013) and from 9 to more than 13 µgm-3 (2014), in Umeå, Helsinki, Oslo and Copenhagen, respectively. The higher concentrations in Copenhagen were mainly caused by the relatively high regionally and continentally transported background contributions. The annual average fractions of PM2.5 concentrations attributed to RWC within the considered urban regions ranged spatially from 0 % to 15 %, from 0 % to 20 %, from 8 % to 22 % and from 0 % to 60 % in Helsinki, Copenhagen, Umeå and Oslo, respectively. In particular, the contributions of RWC in central Oslo were larger than 40 % as annual averages. In Oslo, wood combustion was used mainly for the heating of larger blocks of flats. In contrast, in Helsinki, RWC was solely used in smaller detached houses. In Copenhagen and Helsinki, the highest fractions occurred outside the city centre in the suburban areas. In Umeå, the highest fractions occurred both in the city centre and its surroundings.
We present a case study where emission metric values from
different studies are applied to estimate global and Arctic temperature
impacts of emissions from a northern European country. This study ...assesses
the climate impact of Finnish air pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions
from 2000 to 2010, as well as future emissions until 2030. We consider both emission
pulses and emission scenarios. The pollutants included are SO2, NOx, NH3,
non-methane volatile organic compound (NMVOC), black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), CO, CO2, CH4 and N2O, and our study is the first
one for Finland to include all of them in one coherent dataset. These
pollutants have different atmospheric lifetimes and influence the climate
differently; hence, we look at different climate metrics and time horizons.
The study uses the global warming potential (GWP and GWP*), the global
temperature change potential (GTP) and the regional temperature change
potential (RTP) with different timescales for estimating the climate
impacts by species and sectors globally and in the Arctic. We compare the
climate impacts of emissions occurring in winter and summer. This assessment
is an example of how the climate impact of emissions from small countries
and sources can be estimated, as it is challenging to use climate models to
study the climate effect of national policies in a multi-pollutant
situation. Our methods are applicable to other countries and regions and
present a practical tool to analyze the climate impacts in multiple
dimensions, such as assessing different sectors and mitigation measures.
While our study focuses on short-lived climate forcers, we found that the CO2
emissions have the most significant climate impact, and the significance
increases over longer time horizons. In the short term, emissions of
especially CH4 and BC played an important role as well. The warming impact
of BC emissions is enhanced during winter. Many metric choices are
available, but our findings hold for most choices.
We use the ECHAM-HAMMOZ aerosol-climate model to assess the effects of black carbon (BC) mitigation measures on Arctic climate. To this end we constructed several mitigation scenarios that implement ...all currently existing legislation and then implement further reductions of BC in a successively increasing global area, starting from the eight member states of the Arctic Council, expanding to its active observer states, then to all observer states, and finally to the entire globe. These scenarios also account for the reduction of the co-emitted organic carbon (OC) and sulfate (SU). We find that, even though the additional BC emission reductions in the member states of the Arctic Council are small, the resulting reductions in Arctic BC mass burdens can be substantial, especially in the lower troposphere close to the surface. This in turn means that reducing BC emissions only in the Arctic Council member states can reduce BC deposition in the Arctic by about 30 % compared to the current legislation, which is about 60 % of what could be achieved if emissions were reduced globally. Emission reductions further south affect Arctic BC concentrations at higher altitudes and thus only have small additional effects on BC deposition in the Arctic. The direct radiative forcing scales fairly well with the total amount of BC emission reduction, independent of the location of the emission source, with a maximum direct radiative forcing in the Arctic of about −0.4 W m−2 for a global BC emission reduction. On the other hand, the Arctic effective radiative forcing due to the BC emission reductions, which accounts for aerosol–cloud interactions, is small compared to the direct aerosol radiative forcing. This happens because BC- and OC-containing particles can act as cloud condensation nuclei, which affects cloud reflectivity and lifetime and counteracts the direct radiative forcing of BC. Additionally, the effective radiative forcing is accompanied by very large uncertainties that originate from the strong natural variability of meteorology, cloud cover, and surface albedo in the Arctic. We further used the TM5-FASST model to assess the benefits of the aerosol emission reductions for human health. We found that a full implementation in all Arctic Council member and observer states could reduce the annual global number of premature deaths by 329 000 by the year 2030, which amounts to 9 % of the total global premature deaths due to particulate matter.
We have developed an integrated assessment tool that can be used for evaluating the public health costs caused by the concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in ambient air. The model can ...be used to assess the impacts of various alternative air quality abatement measures, policies and strategies. The model has been applied to evaluate the costs of the domestic emissions that influence the concentrations of PM2.5 in Finland in 2015. The model includes the impacts on human health; however, it does not address the impacts on climate change or the state of the environment. First, the national Finnish emissions were evaluated using the Finnish Regional Emission Scenarios (FRESs) model on a resolution of 250×250 m2 for the whole of Finland. Second, the atmospheric dispersion was analysed by using the chemical transport model, namely the System for Integrated modeLling of Atmospheric coMposition (SILAM) model, and the source receptor matrices contained in the FRES model. Third, the health impacts were assessed by combining the spatially resolved concentration and population data sets and by analysing the impacts for various health outcomes. Fourth, the economic impacts of the health outcomes were evaluated. The model can be used to evaluate the costs of the health damages for various emission source categories and for a unit of emissions of PM2.5. It was found that the economic benefits, in terms of avoided public health costs, were largest for measures that will reduce the emissions of (i) road transport, (ii) non-road vehicles and machinery, and (iii) residential wood combustion. The reduction in the precursor emissions of PM2.5 resulted in clearly lower benefits when compared with directly reducing the emissions of PM2.5. We have also designed a user-friendly, web-based assessment tool that is open access.
•The outcome of the APPRAISAL project are summarized with respect to the review of current integrated assessment modeling practices.•The APPRAISAL project database populated with 59 contributions out ...of 13 countries is used as basis for the review.•Differences between state of the art and current practices remain important in all fields, calling for an increased harmonization of modelling practices in the EU.
The 2008 European Air Quality Directive (AQD) (2008/50/EC) encourages the use of models in combination with monitoring in a range of applications. It also requires Member States to design appropriate air quality plans for zones where the air quality does not comply with the AQD limit values. In order to cope with these various elements, a wide range of different modeling methods have been developed and applied by EU Member States in the last decade to assess the effects of local and regional emission abatement policy options on air quality and human health. However, an overall review of the methodologies that are used in different countries to compile local and regional air quality plans has not been performed so far. Such a review has been the objective of the APPRAISAL EU FP7 project with the main goal to identify methodologies and their limitations and to propose possible key areas to be addressed by research and innovation on the basis of this review. To fulfill these objectives, a structured online database of methodologies has been developed in collaboration with experts involved in the design of air quality plans (AQP). The current work relies on the APPRAISAL database which currently totals 59 contributions from 13 Member States. In this paper we summarize the outcome of the APPRAISAL project with respect to the review of current Integrated Assessment Modeling practices.
This paper presents an example of how air pollution models can be used together with energy system models to study the impacts of climate change mitigation strategies on air pollution. As many ...mitigation measures of greenhouse gases (GHGs) affect the use of fossil fuels in energy production, they can have important side-effects on other air pollution problems. This paper studies on a national scale the impacts of the planned GHG reduction measures on multiple air pollution problems in Finland, concentrating on acidification of forest soils and lakes, tropospheric ozone levels harmful to humans and vegetation and on emissions of fine particles. The air pollutant emission scenarios with the alternative energy choices are calculated for about 200 large point sources, assuming the present emission limit legislation. Disperse emissions are treated at municipality level. The analysis extends to the year 2020. The implementation of the Kyoto protocol in Finland would induce notable reductions of multiple air pollutant emissions and related environmental impacts. A 6–11% reduction in ecosystems threatened by acidification in Southern and Central Finland would be achieved with the Finnish Climate Strategy alone. Substantial improvement in ozone levels would be reached in all scenarios compared to the current situation. The measures of the Climate Strategy could reduce the harmful ozone levels by a further 3%. The measures of the Climate Strategy would not significantly affect the primary particulate emissions in the future because the emissions from large power plants are already effectively controlled. Contrary to the fuel choices of the large units, expanded use of small-scale wood combustion can result in considerable increases of both fine particulate and VOC emissions.
•Guidance is provided for the integrated assessment (IAM) of local air quality.•IAM components can be mapped to the elements of the DPSIR scheme.•A standard solution for IAM does not exist.•The level ...of detail of IAM components should ensure that the IAM is ‘fit-for-purpose’.
In the EU-FP7 project APPRAISAL the current practice for integrated assessment modelling (IAM) of air quality in the EU was reviewed, limitations were identified and guidance for improvements was provided. In this article we present the guidance proposed by APPRAISAL. This guidance takes into account that a single IAM solution does not exist but that the different elements of the IAM methodology can be addressed in more or less detail taking into account the available data, the regional/local specificities, the financial resources and the actual purpose of the assessment.
Air pollution is an important cause of adverse health effects, even in the Nordic countries, which have relatively good air quality. Modelling-based air quality assessment of the health impacts ...relies on reliable model estimates of ambient air pollution concentrations, which furthermore rely on good-quality spatially resolved emission data. While quantitative emission estimates are the cornerstone of good emission data, description of the spatial distribution of the emissions is especially important for local air quality modelling at high resolution. In this paper we present a new air pollution emission inventory for the Nordic countries with high-resolution spatial allocation (1 km × 1 km) covering the years 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2012, and 2014. The inventory is available at 10.5281/zenodo.10571094 (Paunu et al., 2023). To study the impact of applying national data and methods to the spatial distribution of the emissions, we compared road transport and machinery and off-road sectors to CAMS-REGv4.2, which used a consistent spatial distribution method throughout Europe for each sector. Road transport is a sector with well-established proxies for spatial distribution, while for the machinery and off-road sector, the choice of proxies is not as straightforward as it includes a variety of different type of vehicles and machines operating in various environments. We found that CAMS-REGv4.2 was able to produce similar spatial patterns to our Nordic inventory for the selected sectors. However, the resolution of our Nordic inventory allows for more detailed impact assessment than CAMS-REGv4.2, which had a resolution of 0.1° × 0.05° (longitude–latitude, roughly 5.5 km × 3.5–6.5 km in the Nordic countries). The EMEP/EEA Guidebook chapter on spatial mapping of emissions has recommendations for the sectoral proxies. Based on our analysis we argue that the guidebook should have separate recommendations for proxies for several sub-categories of the machinery and off-road sectors, instead of including them within broader sectors. We suggest that land use data are the best starting point for proxies for many of the subsectors, and they can be combined with other suitable data to enhance the spatial distribution. For road transport, measured traffic flow data should be utilized where possible, to support modelled data in the proxies.
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