•We calculate regional and global extinctions per ton for 170 crops in 184 countries.•We estimate species loss embodied in global food trade for four vertebrate taxa.•17% of global biodiversity loss ...occurs due to commodities destined for exports.•The region from where crop are sourced is more important than area imported.•Imports of industrialized nations drive extinctions in tropical, biodiverse nations.
Agricultural land use to meet the demands of a growing population, changing diets, lifestyles and biofuel production is a significant driver of biodiversity loss. Globally applicable methods are needed to assess biodiversity impacts hidden in internationally traded food items. We used the countryside species area relationship (SAR) model to estimate the mammals, birds, amphibians and reptiles species lost (i.e. species ‘committed to extinction’) due to agricultural land use within each of the 804 terrestrial ecoregion. These species lost estimates were combined with high spatial resolution global maps of crop yields to calculate species lost per ton for 170 crops in 184 countries. Finally, the impacts per ton were linked with the bilateral trade data of crop products between producing and consuming countries from FAO, to calculate the land use biodiversity impacts embodied in international crop trade and consumption. We found that 83% of total species loss is incurred due to agriculture land use devoted for domestic consumption whereas 17% is due to export production. Exports from Indonesia to USA and China embody highest impacts (20 species lost at the regional level each). In general, industrialized countries with high per capita GDP tend to be major net importers of biodiversity impacts from developing tropical countries. Results show that embodied land area is not a good proxy for embodied biodiversity impacts in trade flows, as crops occupying little global area such as sugarcane, palm oil, rubber and coffee have disproportionately high biodiversity impacts.
Provision of food is a prerequisite for the functioning of human society. Cropland where food and feed are grown is the central, limiting resource for food production. The amount of cropland needed ...depends on population numbers, average food consumption patterns, and output per unit of land. Around the globe, these factors show large differences. We use data from the Food and Agriculture Organization to consistently assess subcontinental dynamics of how much land was needed to supply the prevailing diets during a span of 46 y, from 1961 to 2007. We find that, in most regions, diets became richer while the land needed to feed one person decreased. A decomposition approach is used to quantify the contributions of the main drivers of cropland requirements for food: changes in population, agricultural technology, and diet. We compare the impact of these drivers for different subcontinents and find that potential land savings through yield increases were offset by a combination of population growth and dietary change. The dynamics of the three factors were the largest in developing regions and emerging economies. The results indicate an inverse relationship between the two main drivers behind increased land requirements for food: with socioeconomic development, population growth decreases and, at the same time, diets become richer. In many regions, dietary change may override population growth as major driver behind land requirements for food in the near future.
Globally, trade flows of agricultural products are increasing. While value is typically added along the whole production chain, certain environmental impacts, such as land and water use, biomass ...appropriation, and soil degradation, are intrinsically linked to where the primary products originate from. When taking a consumer oriented approach on environmental problems, bilateral trade statistics can help in providing a clearer picture about the location of impacts caused by consumption elsewhere. However, in today's increasingly globalized world, consumer goods are often imported from countries other than where the primary product originated from. For instance, soybeans are transported from Brazil to the Netherlands, where they are processed into soy oil, which is shipped to Austria, where it is consumed. Utilizing bilateral trade matrices and matrix algebra, we present a method that allows to clearly link consumption patterns to the origin of primary products. In this, the method can help to provide information about consumption related, distant environmental impacts. We employ the case of land and water use linked to Austria's soy product consumption to demonstrate the approach's relevance. Finally, we outline some possible applications of this method to show its potential in enhancing understanding for informed consumer based environmental decision making.
► Environmental impacts of agricultural products vary greatly, depending on their origin. ► Increasing international trade makes locating origin of consumed products difficult. ► We develop a method to locate the origin of crops in contained consumed products. ► As example, environmental impacts of Austria's soy product consumption are determined.
•Tropical deforestation for agriculture and tree plantations releases 2.6 GtCO2 yr.•29–39% of emissions are driven by international trade, mainly in beef and oilseeds.•Deforestation emissions make up ...large share of carbon footprint of forest-risk commodities.•A sixth of the carbon footprint of av. EU diets is due to deforestation emissions.•Imported deforestation emissions rival domestic agricultural emissions in many countries.
Deforestation, the second largest source of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, is largely driven by expanding forestry and agriculture. However, despite agricultural expansion being increasingly driven by foreign demand, the links between deforestation and foreign demand for agricultural commodities have only been partially mapped. Here we present a pan-tropical quantification of carbon emissions from deforestation associated with the expansion of agriculture and forest plantations, and trace embodied emissions through global supply chains to consumers. We find that in the period 2010–2014, expansion of agriculture and tree plantations into forests across the tropics was associated with net emissions of approximately 2.6 gigatonnes carbon dioxide per year. Cattle and oilseed products account for over half of these emissions. Europe and China are major importers, and for many developed countries, deforestation emissions embodied in imports rival or exceed emissions from domestic agriculture. Depending on the trade model used, 29–39% of deforestation-related emissions were driven by international trade. This is substantially higher than the share of fossil carbon emissions embodied in trade, indicating that efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from land-use change need to consider the role of international demand in driving deforestation. Additionally, we find that deforestation emissions are similar to, or larger than, other emissions in the carbon footprint of key forest-risk commodities. Similarly, deforestation emissions constitute a substantial share (˜15%) of the total carbon footprint of food consumption in EU countries. This highlights the need for consumption-based accounts to include emissions from deforestation, and for the implementation of policy measures that cross these international supply-chains if deforestation emissions are to be effectively reduced.
While many developed countries are increasing their forest cover, deforestation is still rife in the tropics and subtropics. With international trade in forest-risk commodities on the rise, it is ...becoming increasingly important to consider between-country trade linkages in assessing the drivers of-and possible connections between-forest loss and gain across countries. Previous studies have shown that countries that have undergone a forest transition (and are now increasing their forest cover) tend to displace land use outside their borders. However, lack of comprehensive data on deforestation drivers imply that it has not been possible to ascertain whether this has accelerated forest loss in sourcing countries. To remedy this, we present a land-balance model that quantifies deforestation embodied in production of agricultural and forestry commodities at country level across the tropics and subtropics, subsequently tracing embodied deforestation to countries of apparent consumption using a physical, country-to-country trade model. We find that in the period 2005-2013, 62% (5.5 Mha yr−1) of forest loss could be attributed to expanding commercial cropland, pastures and tree plantations. The commodity groups most commonly associated with deforestation were cattle meat, forestry products, oil palm, cereals and soybeans, though variation between countries and regions was large. A large (26%) and slightly increasing share of deforestation was attributed to international demand, the bulk of which (87%) was exported to countries that either exhibit decreasing deforestation rates or increasing forest cover (late- or post-forest transition countries), particularly in Europe and Asia (China, India, and Russia). About a third of the net forest gains in post-forest transition countries was in this way offset by imports of commodities causing deforestation elsewhere, suggesting that achieving a global forest transition will be substantially more challenging than achieving national or regional ones.
Production of commercial agricultural commodities for domestic and foreign markets is increasingly driving land clearing in tropical regions, creating links and feedback effects between ...geographically separated consumption and production locations. Such teleconnections are commonly studied through calculating consumption footprints and quantifying environmental impacts embodied in trade flows, e.g., virtual water and land, biomass, or greenhouse gas emissions. The extent to which land-use change (LUC) and associated carbon emissions are embodied in the production and export of agricultural commodities has been less studied. Here we quantify tropical deforestation area and carbon emissions from LUC induced by the production and the export of four commodities (beef, soybeans, palm oil, and wood products) in seven countries with high deforestation rates (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Papua New Guinea). We show that in the period 2000-2011, the production of the four analyzed commodities in our seven case countries was responsible for 40% of total tropical deforestation and resulting carbon losses. Over a third of these impacts was embodied in exports in 2011, up from a fifth in 2000. This trend highlights the growing influence of global markets in deforestation dynamics. Main flows of embodied LUC are Latin American beef and soybean exports to markets in Europe, China, the former Soviet bloc, the Middle East and Northern Africa, whereas embodied emission flows are dominated by Southeast Asian exports of palm oil and wood products to consumers in China, India and the rest of Asia, as well as to the European Union. Our findings illustrate the growing role that global consumers play in tropical LUC trajectories and highlight the need for demand-side policies covering whole supply chains. We also discuss the limitations of such demand-side measures and call for a combination of supply- and demand-side policies to effectively limit tropical deforestation, along with research into the interactions of different types of policy interventions.
Carbon stocks in vegetation have a key role in the climate system. However, the magnitude, patterns and uncertainties of carbon stocks and the effect of land use on the stocks remain poorly ...quantified. Here we show, using state-of-the-art datasets, that vegetation currently stores around 450 petagrams of carbon. In the hypothetical absence of land use, potential vegetation would store around 916 petagrams of carbon, under current climate conditions. This difference highlights the massive effect of land use on biomass stocks. Deforestation and other land-cover changes are responsible for 53-58% of the difference between current and potential biomass stocks. Land management effects (the biomass stock changes induced by land use within the same land cover) contribute 42-47%, but have been underestimated in the literature. Therefore, avoiding deforestation is necessary but not sufficient for mitigation of climate change. Our results imply that trade-offs exist between conserving carbon stocks on managed land and raising the contribution of biomass to raw material and energy supply for the mitigation of climate change. Efforts to raise biomass stocks are currently verifiable only in temperate forests, where their potential is limited. By contrast, large uncertainties hinder verification in the tropical forest, where the largest potential is located, pointing to challenges for the upcoming stocktaking exercises under the Paris agreement.
Safeguarding the world's remaining forests is a high-priority goal. We assess the biophysical option space for feeding the world in 2050 in a hypothetical zero-deforestation world. We systematically ...combine realistic assumptions on future yields, agricultural areas, livestock feed and human diets. For each scenario, we determine whether the supply of crop products meets the demand and whether the grazing intensity stays within plausible limits. We find that many options exist to meet the global food supply in 2050 without deforestation, even at low crop-yield levels. Within the option space, individual scenarios differ greatly in terms of biomass harvest, cropland demand and grazing intensity, depending primarily on the quantitative and qualitative aspects of human diets. Grazing constraints strongly limit the option space. Without the option to encroach into natural or semi-natural land, trade volumes will rise in scenarios with globally converging diets, thereby decreasing the food self-sufficiency of many developing regions.
Cropland is crucial for supplying humans with biomass products, above all, food. Globalization has led to soaring volumes of international trade, resulting in strongly increasing distances between ...the locations where land use takes place and where the products are consumed. Based on a dataset that allows tracing the flows of almost 450 crop and livestock products and consistently allocating them to cropland areas in over 200 nations, we analyze this rapidly growing spatial disconnect between production and consumption for the period from 1986 to 2009. At the global level, land for export production grew rapidly (by about 100 Mha), while land supplying crops for direct domestic use remained virtually unchanged. We show that international trade on average flows from high-yield to low-yield regions: compared to a hypothetical no-trade counterfactual that assumes equal consumption and yield levels, trade lowered global cropland demand by almost 90 Mha in 2008 (3-year mean). An analysis using yield gap data (which quantify the distance of prevailing yields to those attainable through the best currently available production techniques) revealed that differences in land management and in natural endowments contribute almost equally to the yield differences between exporting and importing nations. A comparison of the effect of yield differences between exporting and importing regions with the potential of closing yield gaps suggests that increasing yields holds greater potentials for reducing future cropland demand than increasing and adjusting trade volumes based on differences in current land productivity.
Agricultural expansion and intensification are threatening biodiversity worldwide, and future expansion of agricultural land will exacerbate this trend. One of the main drivers of this expansion is ...an increasingly global trade of agricultural produce. National and international assessments tracking the impact of agriculture on biodiversity thus need to be expanded by a consumption-based accounting of biodiversity loss. In this study, we use global trade data, provided by the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO), to construct national trade profiles for 223 countries, at the level of 191 produced items and over the timespan of 15 years. We show how bilateral trade data and a national biodiversity indicator, the Species Habitat Index (SHI), can be combined to quantify consumption-based impacts of agricultural trade on biodiversity. We found that the cropland area for agricultural trade has increased from 17 (in 2000) to 23.5% (in 2013) of the global total cropland area. Especially, countries in Western Europe, North America, and the Middle East, create a large part of their biodiversity footprint outside their own country borders, because they import large amounts of agricultural products from areas where the SHI records high biodiversity loss. With our approach, we can thus identify countries where consumption-based interventions might be most effective for the protection of global biodiversity. Analyses like the one presented in this study are needed to complement territorial sustainability assessments. By taking into account trade and consumption, they can inform cross-border agreements on biodiversity protection.
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