In this “Grand Challenges” paper, we review how the carbon isotopic composition of atmospheric CO2 has changed since the Industrial Revolution due to human activities and their influence on the ...natural carbon cycle, and we provide new estimates of possible future changes for a range of scenarios. Emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion and land use change reduce the ratio of 13C/12C in atmospheric CO2 (δ13CO2). This is because 12C is preferentially assimilated during photosynthesis and δ13C in plant‐derived carbon in terrestrial ecosystems and fossil fuels is lower than atmospheric δ13CO2. Emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion also reduce the ratio of 14C/C in atmospheric CO2 (Δ14CO2) because 14C is absent in million‐year‐old fossil fuels, which have been stored for much longer than the radioactive decay time of 14C. Atmospheric Δ14CO2 rapidly increased in the 1950s to 1960s because of 14C produced during nuclear bomb testing. The resulting trends in δ13C and Δ14C in atmospheric CO2 are influenced not only by these human emissions but also by natural carbon exchanges that mix carbon between the atmosphere and ocean and terrestrial ecosystems. This mixing caused Δ14CO2 to return toward preindustrial levels in the first few decades after the spike from nuclear testing. More recently, as the bomb 14C excess is now mostly well mixed with the decadally overturning carbon reservoirs, fossil fuel emissions have become the main factor driving further decreases in atmospheric Δ14CO2. For δ13CO2, in addition to exchanges between reservoirs, the extent to which 12C is preferentially assimilated during photosynthesis appears to have increased, slowing down the recent δ13CO2 trend slightly. A new compilation of ice core and flask δ13CO2 observations indicates that the decline in δ13CO2 since the preindustrial period is less than some prior estimates, which may have incorporated artifacts owing to offsets from different laboratories' measurements. Atmospheric observations of δ13CO2 have been used to investigate carbon fluxes and the functioning of plants, and they are used for comparison with δ13C in other materials such as tree rings. Atmospheric observations of Δ14CO2 have been used to quantify the rate of air‐sea gas exchange and ocean circulation, and the rate of net primary production and the turnover time of carbon in plant material and soils. Atmospheric observations of Δ14CO2 are also used for comparison with Δ14C in other materials in many fields such as archaeology, forensics, and physiology. Another major application is the assessment of regional emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion using Δ14CO2 observations and models. In the future, δ13CO2 and Δ14CO2 will continue to change. The sign and magnitude of the changes are mainly determined by global fossil fuel emissions. We present here simulations of future δ13CO2 and Δ14CO2 for six scenarios based on the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) from the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Applications using atmospheric δ13CO2 and Δ14CO2 observations in carbon cycle science and many other fields will be affected by these future changes. We recommend an increased effort toward making coordinated measurements of δ13C and Δ14C across the Earth System and for further development of isotopic modeling and model‐data analysis tools.
Key Points
Carbon isotopes, 14C and 13C, in atmospheric CO2 are changing in response to fossil fuel emissions and other human activities
Future simulations using different SSPs show continued changes in isotopic ratios that depend on fossil fuel emissions and, for 13C, BECCS
Applications using atmospheric 14C and 13C in studies of the carbon cycle or other fields will be affected by future changes
Ocean deoxygenation in a warming world Keeling, Ralph E; Körtzinger, Arne; Gruber, Nicolas
Annual review of marine science,
01/2010, Letnik:
2
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Ocean warming and increased stratification of the upper ocean caused by global climate change will likely lead to declines in dissolved O2 in the ocean interior (ocean deoxygenation) with ...implications for ocean productivity, nutrient cycling, carbon cycling, and marine habitat. Ocean models predict declines of 1 to 7% in the global ocean O2 inventory over the next century, with declines continuing for a thousand years or more into the future. An important consequence may be an expansion in the area and volume of so-called oxygen minimum zones, where O2 levels are too low to support many macrofauna and profound changes in biogeochemical cycling occur. Significant deoxygenation has occurred over the past 50 years in the North Pacific and tropical oceans, suggesting larger changes are looming. The potential for larger O2 declines in the future suggests the need for an improved observing system for tracking ocean 02 changes.
A multitude of disturbance agents, such as wildfires, land use, and climate‐driven expansion of woody shrubs, is transforming the distribution of plant functional types across Arctic–Boreal ...ecosystems, which has significant implications for interactions and feedbacks between terrestrial ecosystems and climate in the northern high‐latitude. However, because the spatial resolution of existing land cover datasets is too coarse, large‐scale land cover changes in the Arctic–Boreal region (ABR) have been poorly characterized. Here, we use 31 years (1984–2014) of moderate spatial resolution (30 m) satellite imagery over a region spanning 4.7 × 106 km2 in Alaska and northwestern Canada to characterize regional‐scale ABR land cover changes. We find that 13.6 ± 1.3% of the domain has changed, primarily via two major modes of transformation: (a) simultaneous disturbance‐driven decreases in Evergreen Forest area (−14.7 ± 3.0% relative to 1984) and increases in Deciduous Forest area (+14.8 ± 5.2%) in the Boreal biome; and (b) climate‐driven expansion of Herbaceous and Shrub vegetation (+7.4 ± 2.0%) in the Arctic biome. By using time series of 30 m imagery, we characterize dynamics in forest and shrub cover occurring at relatively short spatial scales (hundreds of meters) due to fires, harvest, and climate‐induced growth that are not observable in coarse spatial resolution (e.g., 500 m or greater pixel size) imagery. Wildfires caused most of Evergreen Forest Loss and Evergreen Forest Gain and substantial areas of Deciduous Forest Gain. Extensive shifts in the distribution of plant functional types at multiple spatial scales are consistent with observations of increased atmospheric CO2 seasonality and ecosystem productivity at northern high‐latitudes and signal continental‐scale shifts in the structure and function of northern high‐latitude ecosystems in response to climate change.
Climate change and disturbances are rapidly altering Arctic–Boreal land cover, but such changes are poorly quantified, confounding studies of northern high‐latitude change. We used multidecadal time series of 30 m satellite remote sensing to map and quantify areas of vegetation change across NASA's Arctic–Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE), spanning much of western Canada and Alaska, and found that 13% of the domain experienced land cover change. Fire and logging drove net declines of Evergreen Forest area by 15%, while post‐disturbance recovery expanded Deciduous Forest area by 15% and climate warming expanded Shrub and Herb area by 7%.
A decrease in the 13C/12C ratio of atmospheric CO₂ has been documented by direct observations since 1978 and from ice core measurements since the industrial revolution. This decrease, known as the ...13C-Suess effect, is driven primarily by the input of fossil fuel-derived CO₂ but is also sensitive to land and ocean carbon cycling and uptake. Using updated records, we show that no plausible combination of sources and sinks of CO₂ from fossil fuel, land, and oceans can explain the observed 13C-Suess effect unless an increase has occurred in the 13C/12C isotopic discrimination of land photosynthesis. A trend toward greater discrimination under higher CO₂ levels is broadly consistent with tree ring studies over the past century, with field and chamber experiments, and with geological records of C₃ plants at times of altered atmospheric CO₂, but increasing discrimination has not previously been included in studies of long-term atmospheric 13C/12C measurements. We further show that the inferred discrimination increase of 0.014 ± 0.007‰ ppm−1 is largely explained by photorespiratory and mesophyll effects. This result implies that, at the global scale, land plants have regulated their stomatal conductance so as to allow the CO₂ partial pressure within stomatal cavities and their intrinsic water use efficiency to increase in nearly constant proportion to the rise in atmospheric CO₂ concentration.
Up in the air
Understanding ocean-atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO
2
) fluxes in the Southern Ocean is necessary for quantifying the global CO
2
budget, but measurements in the harsh conditions there ...make collecting good data difficult, so a quantitative picture still is out of reach. Long
et al
. present measurements of atmospheric CO
2
concentrations made by aircraft and show that the annual net flux of carbon into the ocean south of 45°S is large, with stronger summertime uptake and less wintertime outgassing than other recent observations have indicated. —HJS
Aircraft observations show that the Southern Ocean region is a strong carbon sink.
The Southern Ocean plays an important role in determining atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO
2
), yet estimates of air-sea CO
2
flux for the region diverge widely. In this study, we constrained Southern Ocean air-sea CO
2
exchange by relating fluxes to horizontal and vertical CO
2
gradients in atmospheric transport models and applying atmospheric observations of these gradients to estimate fluxes. Aircraft-based measurements of the vertical atmospheric CO
2
gradient provide robust flux constraints. We found an annual mean flux of –0.53 ± 0.23 petagrams of carbon per year (net uptake) south of 45°S during the period 2009–2018. This is consistent with the mean of atmospheric inversion estimates and surface-ocean partial pressure of CO
2
(
P
co
2
)–based products, but our data indicate stronger annual mean uptake than suggested by recent interpretations of profiling float observations.
In this "Grand Challenges" paper, we review how the carbon isotopic composition of atmospheric CO
has changed since the Industrial Revolution due to human activities and their influence on the ...natural carbon cycle, and we provide new estimates of possible future changes for a range of scenarios. Emissions of CO
from fossil fuel combustion and land use change reduce the ratio of
C/
C in atmospheric CO
(δ
CO
). This is because
C is preferentially assimilated during photosynthesis and δ
C in plant-derived carbon in terrestrial ecosystems and fossil fuels is lower than atmospheric δ
CO
. Emissions of CO
from fossil fuel combustion also reduce the ratio of
C/C in atmospheric CO
(Δ
CO
) because
C is absent in million-year-old fossil fuels, which have been stored for much longer than the radioactive decay time of
C. Atmospheric Δ
CO
rapidly increased in the 1950s to 1960s because of
C produced during nuclear bomb testing. The resulting trends in δ
C and Δ
C in atmospheric CO
are influenced not only by these human emissions but also by natural carbon exchanges that mix carbon between the atmosphere and ocean and terrestrial ecosystems. This mixing caused Δ
CO
to return toward preindustrial levels in the first few decades after the spike from nuclear testing. More recently, as the bomb
C excess is now mostly well mixed with the decadally overturning carbon reservoirs, fossil fuel emissions have become the main factor driving further decreases in atmospheric Δ
CO
. For δ
CO
, in addition to exchanges between reservoirs, the extent to which
C is preferentially assimilated during photosynthesis appears to have increased, slowing down the recent δ
CO
trend slightly. A new compilation of ice core and flask δ
CO
observations indicates that the decline in δ
CO
since the preindustrial period is less than some prior estimates, which may have incorporated artifacts owing to offsets from different laboratories' measurements. Atmospheric observations of δ
CO
have been used to investigate carbon fluxes and the functioning of plants, and they are used for comparison with δ
C in other materials such as tree rings. Atmospheric observations of Δ
CO
have been used to quantify the rate of air-sea gas exchange and ocean circulation, and the rate of net primary production and the turnover time of carbon in plant material and soils. Atmospheric observations of Δ
CO
are also used for comparison with Δ
C in other materials in many fields such as archaeology, forensics, and physiology. Another major application is the assessment of regional emissions of CO
from fossil fuel combustion using Δ
CO
observations and models. In the future, δ
CO
and Δ
CO
will continue to change. The sign and magnitude of the changes are mainly determined by global fossil fuel emissions. We present here simulations of future δ
CO
and Δ
CO
for six scenarios based on the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) from the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Applications using atmospheric δ
CO
and Δ
CO
observations in carbon cycle science and many other fields will be affected by these future changes. We recommend an increased effort toward making coordinated measurements of δ
C and Δ
C across the Earth System and for further development of isotopic modeling and model-data analysis tools.
The past century has been a time of unparalleled changes in global climate and global biogeochemistry. At the forefront of the study of these changes are regular time-series observations at remote ...stations of atmospheric CO
2
, isotopes of CO
2
, and related species, such as O
2
and carbonyl sulfide (COS). These records now span many decades and contain a wide spectrum of signals, from seasonal cycles to long-term trends. These signals are variously related to carbon sources and sinks, rates of photosynthesis and respiration of both land and oceanic ecosystems, and rates of air-sea exchange, providing unique insights into natural biogeochemical cycles and their ongoing changes. This review provides a broad overview of these records, focusing on what they have taught us about large-scale global biogeochemical change.
We explore the ability of the atmospheric CO2 record since 1900 to constrain the source of CO2 from land use and land cover change (hereafter “land use”), taking account of uncertainties in other ...terms in the global carbon budget. We find that the atmospheric constraint favors land use CO2 flux estimates with lower decadal variability and can identify potentially erroneous features, such as emission peaks around 1960 and after 2000, in some published estimates. Furthermore, we resolve an offset in the global carbon budget that is most plausibly attributed to the land use flux. This correction shifts the mean land use flux since 1900 across 20 published estimates down by 0.35 PgC year−1 to 1.04 ± 0.57 PgC year−1, which is within the range but at the low end of these estimates. We show that the atmospheric CO2 record can provide insights into the time history of the land use flux that may reduce uncertainty in this term and improve current understanding and projections of the global carbon cycle.
We evaluate individual prior estimates of LU by adjusting constants α and β to minimize error in the global budget, using the observed atmospheric CO2 growth rate (AGR) and best‐estimates of the other terms. We find that the remaining error increases with the decadal variance in LU (left), and that the temporal mean of LU (LU¯) is inversely correlated with α, yielding LU¯ + α that is nearly constant across prior estimates (right). Taking α to be an AGR‐based correction to LU¯, the AGR is thus most compatible with published LU estimates with less decadal variability and lower means.
This study considers year-to-year and decadal variations in as well as secular trends of the sea–air CO2 flux over the 1957–2020 period, as constrained by the pCO2 measurements from the SOCATv2021 ...database. In a first step, we relate interannual anomalies in ocean-internal carbon sources and sinks to local interannual anomalies in sea surface temperature (SST), the temporal changes in SST (dSST/dt), and squared wind speed (u2), employing a multi-linear regression. In the tropical Pacific, we find interannual variability to be dominated by dSST/dt, as arising from variations in the upwelling of colder and more carbon-rich waters into the mixed layer. In the eastern upwelling zones as well as in circumpolar bands in the high latitudes of both hemispheres, we find sensitivity to wind speed, compatible with the entrainment of carbon-rich water during wind-driven deepening of the mixed layer and wind-driven upwelling. In the Southern Ocean, the secular increase in wind speed leads to a secular increase in the carbon source into the mixed layer, with an estimated reduction in the sink trend in the range of 17 % to 42%. In a second step, we combined the result of the multi-linear regression and an explicitly interannual pCO2-based additive correction into a “hybrid” estimate of the sea–air CO2 flux over the period 1957–2020. As a pCO2 mapping method, it combines (a) the ability of a regression to bridge data gaps and extrapolate into the early decades almost void of pCO2 data based on process-related observables and (b) the ability of an auto-regressive interpolation to follow signals even if not represented in the chosen set of explanatory variables. The “hybrid” estimate can be applied as an ocean flux prior for atmospheric CO2 inversions covering the whole period of atmospheric CO2 data since 1957.
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